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Gerard02
05-11-2017, 06:50 PM
It was suggested that i consider the off track when calculating the fractions from the Kentucky Derby. I calculated the fractions for the horses I think should be considered for the Preakness. Here they are:


Always Dreaming Kentucky Derby internal fraction 1/4M and 1/8thM increments.


23.72 24.24 25.12 26.72


11.2 12.52 10.64 12.63 13.12 13.6


Always Dreaming Florida Derby increments


23.69 23.64 25.06 24.03



11.22 12.47 11.11 11.5 12.53


Classic Empire Kentucky Derby


24.06 23.58 24.18 25.86 27.36


10.55 13.03 10.13 12.55 13.31 14.05


Classic Empire Arkansas Derby


23.21 24.31 24.12 25.23


12.8 11.33 11.88 12.99 12.24


Lookin at Lee Kentucky Derby


24.59 23.32 24.21 25.49 26.44


9.48 13.84 10.75 12.46 12.51 12.98 13.46


Lookin at Lee Arkansas Derby


23.96 24.09 23.98 25.03


11.98 12.11 11.85 12.90 12.13


Gunnevera Kentucky Derby


24.17 23.72 24.21 25.86 27.86


9.33 14.34 9.78 12.43 13.43 14.43


Gunnevera Florida Derby


24.99 23.77 23.44 23.92


9.55 14.22 10.77 12.67 11.25 12.67


Conquest Mo Money Arkansas Derby


22.77 24.15 24.24 25.27


13.12 11.03 11.74 12.77 12.5


These are the only ones I feel are worth having a look at. right now. From the initial fractions I have done, Lookin At Lee, Always Dreaming look like the top two horses. I'll still give Classic Empire a second shot. Counting Gunnevera, who was advancing on Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby , only Conquest Mo Money lost ground in his last race over a fast track. Classic Empire lost ground in the Kentucky Derby, but, again, considering the obstacles he went through, you have to toss the race.

whodoyoulike
05-11-2017, 07:21 PM
Whatever happened to the fastest last?

In the Derby, how did that angle do?

How did you calculate BL or are these Formulator #'s of the Derby fractions?

Just curious.

Sinner369
05-11-2017, 08:14 PM
For myself......you should throw out the Kentucky Derby fractions because of the off track.

If Pimlico is fast............you should handicap based NOT on the Kentucky Derby but on the prior races.

Gerard02
05-11-2017, 08:15 PM
Whatever happened to the fastest last?

In the Derby, how did that angle do?

How did you calculate BL or are these Formulator #'s of the Derby fractions?

Just curious.




No, not formulator. I got some of the calculations online and figured out the rest. I dont remember the sites.

Gerard02
05-12-2017, 08:02 AM
For myself......you should throw out the Kentucky Derby fractions because of the off track.

If Pimlico is fast............you should handicap based NOT on the Kentucky Derby but on the prior races.

You make a sound point, however, I always thought that if the times are about normal for an off track, there should not be much of a concern. Judging from the performances of each horse I went over, you could make a case for Gunnevera, since he was the only one of the four, not to make headway. You could make the same excuse for Hence. But, since, AD, CE and Lookin at Lee made tremendous efforts, I cannot just toss the derby times. I would hope what I posted gives anyone a better understanding of how both races shaped up for these four. As for Cloud Computing, his third in the Wood does not impress me, since Irish War Cry took a bath after being in contention for most of the Derby. I can't make a case, yet for Royal Mo, Senior investment and Materiality.

Royal Mo came out of that dismal SA Derby. He other two are coming out of lower races. I'll look them over, once more to see if there is a chance one of them can sneak in for place and show. Otherwise, my top four stand as your likely contestants.