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PaceMaker
05-11-2017, 11:30 AM
I've been working for about 8 months on handicapping races. So far I have decided that the bet I like is the Trifecta. I'm now trying to find races that I think the Trifecta will pay out more than others and if I can find that I feel pretty good about my handicapping. Any thoughts?

PaceAdvantage
05-11-2017, 11:36 AM
I recommend looking at field sizes of 9 or more, with a morning line favorite of 3-1 or higher...that is a decent way of weeding out races where the TRI is likely to pay less than you desire IMO...

PaceMaker
05-11-2017, 12:13 PM
Yes I know that and was trying to get maybe a different angle, and then there are some 5 or 6 horse races that pay out big

PaceAdvantage
05-11-2017, 12:14 PM
Yes I know that and was trying to get maybe a different angleIf I had known, I wouldn't have offered my opinion. My apologies...carry on

TheOracle
05-11-2017, 12:49 PM
I've been working for about 8 months on handicapping races. So far I have decided that the bet I like is the Trifecta. I'm now trying to find races that I think the Trifecta will pay out more than others and if I can find that I feel pretty good about my handicapping. Any thoughts?

Hey PaceMaker

You might want to think about races on the Turf as opposed to Dirt

Right now, as of yesterday the average win payout on the Dirt at Belmont is $9

However, the average payout on the Turf is $14.70 that's almost a $6 difference in win payouts so the Trifectas are much higher right now on the Turf than the Dirt at Belmont

So if you're looking to score, at least at Belmont, you might want to try your luck on the Turf

TheOracle
05-11-2017, 01:06 PM
Hey PaceMaker

You might want to think about races on the Turf as opposed to Dirt

Right now, as of yesterday the average win payout on the Dirt at Belmont is $9

However, the average payout on the Turf is $14.70 that's almost a $6 difference in win payouts so the Trifectas are much higher right now on the Turf than the Dirt at Belmont

So if you're looking to score, at least at Belmont, you might want to try your luck on the Turf

I didn't realize there was a $123 winner on the Turf at Belmont on opening day which exaggerates the average

When you subtract that win payout the average win price is $11.50 still almost $3 more than on the Dirt so it still might be worth a shot

PaceMaker
05-11-2017, 01:15 PM
I appreciate your input!

thaskalos
05-11-2017, 01:42 PM
During the betting stage, horse-betting resembles golf: You keep a bunch of different clubs in your bag...and you let the HOLE determine which club to use. Don't try to fit the race to the bet. Fit the bet to the race.

Nitro
05-11-2017, 02:40 PM
During the betting stage, horse-betting resembles golf: You keep a bunch of different clubs in your bag...and you let the HOLE determine which club to use. Don't try to fit the race to the bet. Fit the bet to the race.

Give that man a cigar! Great comment!

I've also found that for long term success that the betting side of the game and good money management is actually more critical than making selections.

PaceAdvantage
05-11-2017, 02:45 PM
Betting on overlays is the ONLY way to make money. It's impossible otherwise.

Every long term winning player is betting on overlays. Whether they know it or not.

reckless
05-11-2017, 03:08 PM
Betting on overlays is the ONLY way to make money. It's impossible otherwise.

Every long term winning player is betting on overlays. Whether they know it or not.

I have always made my own odds line and I have done so for many years as I feel it's the best way to find, and bet, on overlays.

I have never been a fan of using the racetrack's odds line as a gauge to determine what's an overlay or not. Because my betting is mostly at Parx I know this could be the reason I do it my way. The line maker at Parx is the absolute worst of his kind in the handicapping world.

I know there are also good track line makers but I still feel more comfortable with making my own line even when I play other tracks.

Good luck, PaceMaker, and try to learn how to make an odds line, if you don't already know. PA Mike gave you good advice.

DeltaLover
05-11-2017, 03:16 PM
You should prefer betting on races where the crowd will have a large enough chance to be misleaded by ABC handicapping!

The best bets in this game occur, when price is inflated by some basic handicapping factor that the crowd overestimates. A three year old against olders early in the year, a filly against colts, a maiden against stakes winners or a horse coming from an extended layoff, are all factors representative of some potential excellent selections. Your job is to discover them and have the courage to heavily bet against the crowd.


Some of the things you need:

Understand how the crowd makes betting decisions.
Develop a custom speed and pace figure methodology.
Discover the patterns that tend to confuse the crowd and take advantage of them.
Deep understanding of how mutual betting works and how to optimize the transformation of opinions to bets.
An up to date database containing all the races ran in Northern America.
Sufficient machine learning skills to create custom figures and automated detect crowd errors and mine your databases in many other ways as well.
Study the related literature (not because you will learn to beat the game from it but because you need to know the fallacious approaches that are advertised there and followed by the crowd).
Have enough bankroll to sustain long losing streaks.

v j stauffer
05-15-2017, 01:36 AM
I've been working for about 8 months on handicapping races. So far I have decided that the bet I like is the Trifecta. I'm now trying to find races that I think the Trifecta will pay out more than others and if I can find that I feel pretty good about my handicapping. Any thoughts?

People are always chasing the elusive "value".

For a handicapper that's just starting out. I suggest you make bets where YOU can control "value"

The Trifecta pool will always cost you somewhere around $23.00 for every $100.00 you bet.

The Win pool is only going to charge you $15.00.

Especially for someone just starting you should want to make as many bets as you can.

Betting Tri's you could be 3 or $400 in before you ever hit one. While simply trying to pick a winner is more likely to prevent long dry spells and allow you to gain much needed experience.

Sinner369
05-15-2017, 10:48 AM
Despite all the long winded answers............what everyone is trying to say it's that BET the race where you have some kind of advantage over the general public.

Dave Schwartz
05-15-2017, 10:59 AM
During the betting stage, horse-betting resembles golf: You keep a bunch of different clubs in your bag...and you let the HOLE determine which club to use. Don't try to fit the race to the bet. Fit the bet to the race.

Excellent advice!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

AndyC
05-15-2017, 03:50 PM
During the betting stage, horse-betting resembles golf: You keep a bunch of different clubs in your bag...and you let the HOLE determine which club to use. Don't try to fit the race to the bet. Fit the bet to the race.

Keeping with your golf analogy. Most golfers aren't equally proficient with every club in the bag. Golfers have to play every shot while horse bettors can sit out the shots that might call for a high draw with a 4 iron when the best they can do is hit a low cut. But your point is certainly correct, a player shouldn't try to hit a 7 iron 260 yards just because it is his favorite club.

AltonKelsey
05-15-2017, 04:07 PM
Betting on overlays is the ONLY way to make money. It's impossible otherwise.

Every long term winning player is betting on overlays. Whether they know it or not.


That's certainly true, but deceptively worthless to the average player. How to know what an overlay is in advance? Is it a longshot? Is it a short price that 'cant lose'.

Many apparent overlays are in fact dead on the board for reasons you won't know. Opposite true for apparent 'underlays'. Serling talks about this all the time.


For the most part, you know if you bet on overlays after the fact, when your p&l is totaled, not before.

Yeah, I know you can create systems that show a profit, so you could say all it's plays are overlays, but how many have such things in the real world?

Nitro
05-15-2017, 05:43 PM
Despite all the long winded answers............what everyone is trying to say it's that BET the race where you have some kind of advantage over the general public.

Some may very well be “long-winded” comments, but at least most make some sense.

I for one would like to know first of all who is this “public” that you and others are constantly referring to? Are you trying to lump everyone that’s in the betting population for any particular racing event into one generic group called the “public”?

If we can assume that part of this betting population is composed of those directly connected to these horses, I’d also ask how any typical handicapper can gain any sort of advantage over those who know the intentions, and physical and mental well-being of these animals?

Sinner369
05-15-2017, 05:55 PM
Some may very well be “long-winded” comments, but at least most make some sense.

I for one would like to know first of all who is this “public” that you and others are constantly referring to? Are you trying to lump everyone that’s in the betting population for any particular racing event into one generic group called the “public”?

If we can assume that part of this betting population is composed of those directly connected to these horses, I’d also ask how any typical handicapper can gain any sort of advantage over those who know the intentions, and physical and mental well-being of these animals?


By general public..........I mean the over 50% of the bettors who is betting the favorite of each race.........this is not meant to be an insult.......matter of fact........the general public is probably the best handicapper of all because the favorite wins more than any other type of handicappers.

But you know as well as me that favorites only win 30 to 33% of the time so you cannot make money betting the favorites in each race.

VigorsTheGrey
05-15-2017, 05:56 PM
Some may very well be “long-winded” comments, but at least most make some sense.

I for one would like to know first of all who is this “public” that you and others are constantly referring to? Are you trying to lump everyone that’s in the betting population for any particular racing event into one generic group called the “public”?

If we can assume that part of this betting population is composed of those directly connected to these horses, I’d also ask how any typical handicapper can gain any sort of advantage over those who know the intentions, and physical and mental well-being of these animals?

I not denying that the owners, horsemen and jockeys, agents, grooms, et al, seek to profit though wagering by any inside info they might have at any given time...but I do see a difficulty identifying these actions in the betting pools as being distinctly theirs...I mean, how can anyone know whom is betting on what...? How do you know it is horsemen betting and not some shark or whale that has directed fluctuations in the various pools...?

VigorsTheGrey
05-15-2017, 06:12 PM
That's certainly true, but deceptively worthless to the average player. How to know what an overlay is in advance? Is it a longshot? Is it a short price that 'cant lose'.

Many apparent overlays are in fact dead on the board for reasons you won't know. Opposite true for apparent 'underlays'. Serling talks about this all the time.


For the most part, you know if you bet on overlays after the fact, when your p&l is totaled, not before.

Yeah, I know you can create systems that show a profit, so you could say all it's plays are overlays, but how many have such things in the real world?

Studies have shown that bettors consistently OVER-rate long shots and UNDER-rate contenders with regard to their actual chances of winning...this should lead one to believe that overlays are in fact, generally, not good betting propositions...

But there is an illusion at work here because generally there is one favorite and that horse very often is over-bet which leads, ipso facto, to overlays on some of the others, which might be now considered decent bets, but really are the same poor bets they were before...what difference does it make if a horse is 5-1, 10-1 or 20-1 if it doesn't stand a good chance of winning anyway....

I have often been suckered, by my own bad reasoning, into betting long shots, chasing prices, all to no avail, just because they were long odds...doing exactly what the studies have shown that bettors do indeed do...that is, overvalue long shots, and undervalue contenders...

TheOracle
05-15-2017, 08:02 PM
I've been working for about 8 months on handicapping races. So far I have decided that the bet I like is the Trifecta. I'm now trying to find races that I think the Trifecta will pay out more than others and if I can find that I feel pretty good about my handicapping. Any thoughts?


Hey PaceMaker

At Belmont you get a little bit more for your money per win bet on the Turf than on the Dirt

So far, this year the average win price on the Turf at Belmont is $13.80 which is slightly blown out of proportion due to the $123 winner on April 28th when you take that winner out your win price is $11.30

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beltrfone.png

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beltrftwo.png


Compare that to the average win price on the Dirt which is $9.40 and you can see that the value in terms of win prices is on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beldrtone.png

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beldrttwo.png

You can see that prices under $8 accounted for 56% of the win prices on the Dirt whereas prices under $8 on the Turf accounted for 46% of the win prices even though there were more Dirt races than Turf races

If you're chasing prices your better off playing Turf races rather than Dirt races at Belmont

ReplayRandall
05-15-2017, 08:09 PM
Hey PaceMaker

At Belmont you get a little bit more for your money per win bet on the Turf than on the Dirt

So far, this year the average win price on the Turf at Belmont is $13.80 which is slightly blown out of proportion due to the $123 winner on April 28th when you take that winner out your win price is $11.30

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beltrfone.png

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beltrftwo.png


Compare that to the average win price on the Dirt which is $9.40 and you can see that the value in terms of win prices is on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beldrtone.png

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/beldrttwo.png

You can see that prices under $8 accounted for 56% of the win prices on the Dirt whereas prices under $8 on the Turf accounted for 46% of the win prices even though there were more Dirt races than Turf races

If you're chasing prices your better off playing Turf races rather than Dirt races at Belmont
Field size in Turf races are larger than dirt. Have you done a proportionality mutuel average for field sizes as well?

TheOracle
05-15-2017, 08:24 PM
Field size in Turf races are larger than dirt. Have you done a proportionality mutuel average for field sizes as well?

Hey Replay

I never even thought to do that a proportional average based on field sizes

I have to look into that might be quite interesting!!!

Nitro
05-15-2017, 09:01 PM
I not denying that the owners, horsemen and jockeys, agents, grooms, et al, seek to profit though wagering by any inside info they might have at any given time...but I do see a difficulty identifying these actions in the betting pools as being distinctly theirs...I mean, how can anyone know whom is betting on what...? How do you know it is horsemen betting and not some shark or whale that has directed fluctuations in the various pools...?
Of course you would find it difficult identifying any betting scenarios that the connections (or anyone else) might be employing. That’s because most people assume that a basic perusal of just the live odds at any given time during a typical betting will disclose this type of information. While on occasion this might happen, generally viewing the odds (just the Win pool) is inconsequential at best in terms of revealing anything of significance on its own (other than the actual market value of each entry).

Because of my limited understanding of how the tote analysis (I use) is formulated, I can only add that I know it’s based on an elaborate relationship between all of the available mutual and exotic betting pools. The foundation of this relationship was developed through an intense study successful human betting behaviors. This involved a detailed examination of the money flow in terms of the Where, the When, and How much is proportionally being wagered.

So in my mind it not just a question of whether or not the connections are betting or even identifying their action. It becomes a matter of recognizing explicit betting patterns when certain resulting criteria are met. Then it’s a matter of acting on it, in terms of determining whether or not there’s a potential valued return in a specific type of wager.