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PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 11:48 AM
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.

Fred Mertz
05-11-2017, 12:07 PM
I think I'll bet a trifecta with the fave not on it and hope for the best.

Mc990
05-11-2017, 12:10 PM
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.

If you really believe this, why don't you just bet the super horse to win.... 3/5 on something that is 100% is free money... No?

Or maybe 3/5 or even 1/1 is an underlay... Just something to ponder

AirNate012
05-11-2017, 12:11 PM
Key on top in an exacta with some prices.

PaceAdvantage
05-11-2017, 12:40 PM
If AD is anywhere near 3/5, I'll be shocked.

Robert Fischer
05-11-2017, 12:57 PM
boring answer = pass, unless you find a longshot in a multi race (and then use as a slight multiplier), or unless he is higher than your minimum win odds (eg "even money").

fun answer = bet him big to win , and throw a few small tickets together involving long shots underneath in a superfecta or trifecta.

Gerard02
05-11-2017, 02:45 PM
I have an interesting analysis. This is just preliminary, but I think it bears some thinking. Along with using the Caris Method, I also use internal fractions, exploring not only each Quarter a horse ran, but each 1/8th of a mile. I came up with some interesting numbers. First, using the first method, only Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee qualify for the Preakness. Considering that Classic Empire had a terrible trip and ran on well, I will include him in my exotics. Lookin At Lee seems to be an interesting standout.


I calculated AD, Lookin at Lee and CE's 1/8th mile from start to finish and found that Lookin at Lee scored under 13 seconds from the 5F mark to the finish. His 1/8th fractions were:
10.75 12.46 12.98 12.51 12.98 with a final 1/8th of 13.46. He was also, the only horse down the stretch to gain on AD.


AD came in with fractions of

10.64 13.6 13.12 12.63 13.12 13.6


CE

10.13 14.05 13.31 12.55 13.31 14.05


These numbers may be off a bit. I've been working on them since, this morning. Feel free to correct me. Of the horses from the Derby entered in the Preakness, only Lookin at Lee was actually gaining lengths. However, as Classic Empire was bumped off in the stretch and had to readjust, he gets an excuse. Overall, I'd say these are your big three.

thaskalos
05-11-2017, 02:55 PM
I have an interesting analysis. This is just preliminary, but I think it bears some thinking. Along with using the Caris Method, I also use internal fractions, exploring not only each Quarter a horse ran, but each 1/8th of a mile. I came up with some interesting numbers. First, using the first method, only Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee qualify for the Preakness. Considering that Classic Empire had a terrible trip and ran on well, I will include him in my exotics. Lookin At Lee seems to be an interesting standout.


I calculated AD, Lookin at Lee and CE's 1/8th mile from start to finish and found that Lookin at Lee scored under 13 seconds from the 5F mark to the finish. His 1/8th fractions were:
10.75 12.46 12.98 12.51 12.98 with a final 1/8th of 13.46. He was also, the only horse down the stretch to gain on AD.


AD came in with fractions of

10.64 13.6 13.12 12.63 13.12 13.6


CE

10.13 14.05 13.31 12.55 13.31 14.05


These numbers may be off a bit. I've been working on them since, this morning. Feel free to correct me. Of the horses from the Derby entered in the Preakness, only Lookin at Lee was actually gaining lengths. However, as Classic Empire was bumped off in the stretch and had to readjust, he gets an excuse. Overall, I'd say these are your big three.

The Derby was on an off track...and at a distance which these horses will probably never negotiate again.Why use THAT race as the "common denominator" in determining the ability of these horses...instead of using a prior, more comparable race?

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 02:56 PM
If you really believe this, why don't you just bet the super horse to win.... 3/5 on something that is 100% is free money... No?

Or maybe 3/5 or even 1/1 is an underlay... Just something to ponder

I never said 100% im like 70%

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 02:57 PM
If AD is anywhere near 3/5, I'll be shocked.

what are you thinking? more or less?

f2tornado
05-11-2017, 03:02 PM
Maybe put about half your bankroll in the win pool (and perhaps a little place pool insurance) and the other half in the exotics including a couple horizontals. At worst, you blow the gimmicks but get your money back in the WP pools. It's a free shot at the P4 and superfecta.

Gerard02
05-11-2017, 03:58 PM
Good point. I'm calculating their other races as we speak.

LoseEverything
05-11-2017, 04:20 PM
Key AD in a Pick 4, 5 or 6 ticket and hope it's bombs away in the preliminary races.

Also like others said, bombs away underneath AD for the exotics in the feature.

jocko699
05-11-2017, 05:59 PM
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.

If I bet him it will have to be to win:lol::lol:

HalvOnHorseracing
05-12-2017, 10:26 AM
I believe Always Dreaming will be the favorite, but that Classic Empire will be a close second choice. Given the chart notes

CLASSIC EMPIRE bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when bumped and carried out mid stretch, regrouped and churned on.

I'm not ready to concede on a fair track Classic Empire would not be the better horse.

Wise Dan
05-12-2017, 11:49 AM
Always Dreaming will be 2/1 morning line favorite

Mc990
05-12-2017, 11:56 AM
I believe Always Dreaming will be the favorite, but that Classic Empire will be a close second choice. Given the chart notes

CLASSIC EMPIRE bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when bumped and carried out mid stretch, regrouped and churned on.

I'm not ready to concede on a fair track Classic Empire would not be the better horse.

I'm with you 100%. No reason on the planet that these 2 horses shouldn't be very similar in odds but.... The Preakness as usual will be bet incorrectly

A quick look at Oddschecker shows AD being offered at 1/1 and CE 6/1.... Please let the bettors make it somewhere in that vicinity....

Isn't this the type of situation horseplayers are waiting for?? It seems the recent success of horses like Pharaoh and Arrogate have turned bettors into fanboys. Yes, the horse won the derby... Somebody had to... He's no all time great though... The worst thing a horse/sports bettor can do is overreact

Good luck to all

PowerUpPaynter
05-12-2017, 12:04 PM
Always Dreaming will be 2/1 morning line favorite

post time gotta figure he goes off odds on

Gerard02
05-12-2017, 12:20 PM
I will go out on a limb here and challenge the anti AD handicappers. From my observation of both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, AD has more than enough to win the Preakness. Looking at his internal fractions, he did well. He can handle an off track. He's a stalker and can take the lead when it counts. Until, he flops big time, I won't count him out.

Robert Fischer
05-12-2017, 12:34 PM
If he wins, my best guess is $3-$3.50.

Chrome was recently in a similar position. Faced a field of 10 as a well thought favorite, after winning the KYD as favorite. Chrome's KYD even featured a long shot place horse(Commanding Curve), as in Always Dreaming's w/ Lookin At Lee (point being there was no Exaggerator in the stretch run these years).

Chrome paid $3.00. I think that this is a relatively similar pattern to look at.


Although Chrome and AD are thought of very similarly by the betting public, this Preakness is shaping up to be a lot more complex than Chrome's. Chrome faced a 12-1 Bayern (who wasn't regarded by the public, but in terms of the race itself was pinched back at the break). Social Inclusion(some similarities to Conquest Mo Money) never collapsed the pace or anything, and the race was run (and seen by the public) in very simple terms. Chrome 'fired' his race and won easily.

This year we have Royal Mo and Conquest Mo Money involved in the pace. These guys can potentially run a a mile and a sixteenth of a grade 1 Preakness. Royal Mo was best in the Santa Anita Derby. He can't stalk the pace like Battle of Midway(the big 30-1? overlay in the Derby exotics), but an efficient trip, with the track, leaves a bit of uncertainty about how game his pace can be.
Already compared CMM to Social Inclusion. However unlikely, it's not completely impossible that Conquest Mo Money can run a more complete race, or luck-into a trip that saves him some horse for the finish...

The great Brown hope, Cloud Computing looks visually, like a top racehorse, has a top trainer, and has a laundry list of excuses of how everything from the pace, to the track bias has supposedly hidden his Grade 1 ability.
It's a stretch, but we can't definitively 100% rule out his ability to contend.
Hence showed in the Sunland that he can with the flow, behind a fast pace. In the Kentucky Derby his jock missed an opportunity for an opening on the rail, and he never got on the flow. We still pretty much know nothing about Hence. He's probably not as good as these, but we can't rule it out 100%.


long story, short - $3-$3.50 on AD is not as simple as $3 on Chrome.

HalvOnHorseracing
05-12-2017, 01:05 PM
I will go out on a limb here and challenge the anti AD handicappers. From my observation of both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, AD has more than enough to win the Preakness. Looking at his internal fractions, he did well. He can handle an off track. He's a stalker and can take the lead when it counts. Until, he flops big time, I won't count him out.

I don't really think it is anti-AD sentiment. The question is, where is the value going to be? Whether or not he has more than enough to win the Preakness is hardly a question that needs debate. The question is whether he is likely to be the winner if every other horse runs its best race, and whether any other horse will be value because AD is highly unlikely to be. The Derby fractions were average - Mine That Bird actually ran a faster finish time on a sloppy track - and the final quarter was slow, which at least hints at his vulnerability. AD may win the Preakness, but he's got enough ambiguity for me that I'm going to look closely as some of the other contenders.

Gerard02
05-12-2017, 02:16 PM
I don't really think it is anti-AD sentiment. The question is, where is the value going to be? Whether or not he has more than enough to win the Preakness is hardly a question that needs debate. The question is whether he is likely to be the winner if every other horse runs its best race, and whether any other horse will be value because AD is highly unlikely to be. The Derby fractions were average - Mine That Bird actually ran a faster finish time on a sloppy track - and the final quarter was slow, which at least hints at his vulnerability. AD may win the Preakness, but he's got enough ambiguity for me that I'm going to look closely as some of the other contenders.

He will most likely go off around 6/5. Yes, the fractions of the Kentucky Derby were slow, but, from my internals, AD picked up a little speed in the final 1/8th. So, far, I don't see much value here. CE will be around 3-1, maybe less. I may just pass this one and watch.

dilanesp
05-13-2017, 07:50 PM
I think AD will be 2 to 5. If he is 6 to 5 he is a pretty big overlay and you should bet big. But I doubt he will be.

f2tornado
05-13-2017, 11:36 PM
Wasn't Pharoah 4/5? I thought that one had more hype than Dreaming but had fan favorites Dortmund and Firing Line taking money. I don't think Empire has the same fanclub. I'll say 4/5 is fair value on AD. It's just a matter of how I play the exotics keying AD on top. One could make an argument for most to factor in the tri and super but I'd like to think Empire still has the class for hitting the board. This makes the gimmicks cheaper to play but without much bang barring a bomber in the place pool.

arw629
05-15-2017, 03:22 PM
post time gotta figure he goes off odds on

I doubt it. I'll predict he goes off at 7-5 but somewhere between 6-5 and 2-1 he will be. I don't see him winning this race and I think the big money will be against him. He had a dream trip in the derby. He sat on a gold rail behind a cheap speed and had it merry go round without having any trouble. It reminded me of an Aqueduct Inner gold rail day where nothing happens. He is going to have to pass Conquest Mo Money who is light years better and tougher than state of honor and hold off cloud computing and classic empire. He isn't a good bet at short odds imo

boys at tosconova
05-15-2017, 04:20 PM
there's big money to be made in the next two races. while i haven't fared that strongly in the derby in the past few years i've more than made up for it in the preakness and belmont.

if you want to bet it seriously, it appears that half of the projected field is a toss here. and even if you want to include gunny, hence & LoL you could saver for 3rd on a few tickets. imo that leaves only Ad and 3/4 stalk tact speed horses in an easy lineup w/o a fast pace. CC will appear to be a longshot as well, and if he shows some early foot he could be in position to hit the board as well.

the ark derby triple was a monster. and while you won't get $390 for 1 dollar this time you still could do pretty well with the fav AD on top in the triple. and with the limited number of horses i think will be itm you could even speculate and hope that AD finish 2/3rd because of the small cost of the potential 2 horses that might beat him.

dilanesp
05-15-2017, 06:49 PM
I doubt it. I'll predict he goes off at 7-5 but somewhere between 6-5 and 2-1 he will be. I don't see him winning this race and I think the big money will be against him. He had a dream trip in the derby. He sat on a gold rail behind a cheap speed and had it merry go round without having any trouble. It reminded me of an Aqueduct Inner gold rail day where nothing happens. He is going to have to pass Conquest Mo Money who is light years better and tougher than state of honor and hold off cloud computing and classic empire. He isn't a good bet at short odds imo


One of us is going to be right and one of us is going to be wrong.

Julz
05-15-2017, 07:25 PM
My strategy would be to use another horse. He is expected to bounce BIGTIME this race. Makes for a great Preakness and an even better betting opportunity.

PowerUpPaynter
05-15-2017, 08:38 PM
My strategy would be to use another horse. He is expected to bounce BIGTIME this race. Makes for a great Preakness and an even better betting opportunity.


He's expected to bounce by who? The same people that bet against California Chrome in the Preakness? Perfect trip or not, I expect another perfect trip because he breaks so damn good. He was extending his lead on Classic Empire in the stretch. Ill admit I was anti- Always Dreaming in the derby, just didnt think the fav would win 5 years in a row. But i expect him to run a Smary Jones type Preakness and lose in the Belmont... Horses like him bounce forward in the Preakness.

n.c
05-15-2017, 10:23 PM
at Oaklawn, Malagacy was a Morning line long odds vs Baffert's horse...Malagacy went out at 5/2 as the second fav and won easy. Horse was stretching out for the first time at a Stakes race vs a Baffert heavy fav.

Ky Derby- Classic Empire was the ML fav, but on friday night it was 7-1 or 6-1 while AD was the fav at 4-1( Pletchers one eyed horse had some money, horses name was Sammy Davis or was it Peter Falk??) and Gunnereva at 9-1( morning line at 15-1)

So if the odds are 1-1 or 3/5..AD will win. The barn is putting money.

arw629
05-15-2017, 10:45 PM
He's expected to bounce by who? The same people that bet against California Chrome in the Preakness? Perfect trip or not, I expect another perfect trip because he breaks so damn good. He was extending his lead on Classic Empire in the stretch. Ill admit I was anti- Always Dreaming in the derby, just didnt think the fav would win 5 years in a row. But i expect him to run a Smary Jones type Preakness and lose in the Belmont... Horses like him bounce forward in the Preakness.

You do realize the rail runners ran significantly better than the rest of the field.

Julz
05-15-2017, 11:48 PM
I use computer models with many years of data. In addition I combine linear regression analysis that compare different scenarios from past and present to determine outcomes in certain situations. There is a lot more that goes into it, however all signs point to AD not winning this race, with a great possibility of finishing off the board. He is still very lightly raced and the amount of time between races and the energy he has been displacing in a very short period of time is very reminiscent of super saver, and will takes it toll on the horse. Can he win the race, absolutely.....by Smarty Jones margins. I wouldn't be surprised. Nothing is guaranteed AM I anti AD, not at all. Just trying to handicap the race. He is obviously a great horse, however all the data that I have says that this is the bounce race. Possibly out of the money. I'm not rooting against, just trying to pick the winner. Having said that, sincerely best of luck to you however you play the race.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 07:12 AM
I use computer models with many years of data. In addition I combine linear regression analysis that compare different scenarios from past and present to determine outcomes in certain situations. There is a lot more that goes into it, however all signs point to AD not winning this race, with a great possibility of finishing off the board. He is still very lightly raced and the amount of time between races and the energy he has been displacing in a very short period of time is very reminiscent of super saver, and will takes it toll on the horse. Can he win the race, absolutely.....by Smarty Jones margins. I wouldn't be surprised. Nothing is guaranteed AM I anti AD, not at all. Just trying to handicap the race. He is obviously a great horse, however all the data that I have says that this is the bounce race. Possibly out of the money. I'm not rooting against, just trying to pick the winner. Having said that, sincerely best of luck to you however you play the race.

Would you say if he wins this race the bounce factor becomes huge in the Belmont? For me, I dont think he is a great horse. I do think the new shooters are terrible and the horses that he already beat in the derby he is just better than. I just see a big Preakness as its very rare for a horse with his type of style coming off a Derby win to lose the Preakness. I fully expect him to get picked off in the Belmont and hope I can find the Birdstone to come in at 41-1...

Mc990
05-16-2017, 08:31 AM
I use computer models with many years of data. In addition I combine linear regression analysis that compare different scenarios from past and present to determine outcomes in certain situations. There is a lot more that goes into it, however all signs point to AD not winning this race, with a great possibility of finishing off the board. He is still very lightly raced and the amount of time between races and the energy he has been displacing in a very short period of time is very reminiscent of super saver, and will takes it toll on the horse. Can he win the race, absolutely.....by Smarty Jones margins. I wouldn't be surprised. Nothing is guaranteed AM I anti AD, not at all. Just trying to handicap the race. He is obviously a great horse, however all the data that I have says that this is the bounce race. Possibly out of the money. I'm not rooting against, just trying to pick the winner. Having said that, sincerely best of luck to you however you play the race.

Exactly. This horse is certainly more Super Savrer than he is AP or even Chrome.

Let's see... A lightly raced Pletcher who has been handled with kid gloves forced to race on a 2 week turnaround after a career best performance which came with a sweet trip in the slop on what may or may not have been a golden rail now facing at least 2 horses that can beat him on the square even if he doesn't regress and for all this you might get 7/5 at the absolute high end.

Man I just don't see it. To me this is like xmas morning for the horseplayer. To each his own though...

Julz
05-16-2017, 10:44 AM
I would say you're spot on. If he does win, it's an even bigger bet against in the Belmont. He will not win. I agree with your points about his running style in this race and I wouldn't be shocked if he won easily. I'm torn because I know he's not the horse for the Belmont, yet if he wins the Preakness, it will be a great set up for all of us to collect a big payday.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 10:51 AM
Isn't this a better horse than Super Saver?

Mc990
05-16-2017, 11:07 AM
Isn't this a better horse than Super Saver?

I believe AD is the epitome of "dressed up".

With the recent greatness of AP and Arrogate it seems everyone is reaching for the next big thing. Not seeing it.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 11:52 AM
I believe AD is the epitome of "dressed up".

With the recent greatness of AP and Arrogate it seems everyone is reaching for the next big thing. Not seeing it.

The next big thing was likely Mastery.

Julz
05-16-2017, 12:19 PM
He probably is. So lightly raced though, I don't know what to make of him. The way the horses are handled these days with kid gloves, it's impossible to tell anymore. Again, I know he is your pick and I wish you well, I just don't know how good he really is. The new way of training these horses makes it almost impossible to tell. I'm just trying to share my information in the hopes that it will help others on this forum, however I've lost before and I will again. So by no means do I want to try to sway you. I just see a little opportunity to go against. So, although I do agree he is better than super saver, this one is not as automatic as chrome and pharoah.

arw629
05-16-2017, 12:21 PM
Isn't this a better horse than Super Saver?

He won the derby exactly like super saver did...both rode the rail when it was the place to be and grinded out a win

dilanesp
05-16-2017, 01:42 PM
He won the derby exactly like super saver did...both rode the rail when it was the place to be and grinded out a win

I don't think you can analyze AD without looking at the Florida Derby as well.

Gerard02
05-16-2017, 01:46 PM
Ok. So, if we erase the Kentucky Derby and and start over with this field and apply the Handicapping the Triple Crown method, our qualifiers are the following:

Always Dreaming
Classic Empire
Lookin at Lee
Gunnevera
Conquest MO Money

Hence, Multiplier, Senior Investment would not qualify because they did not run in a big 6 Prep.

Term of Art would not qualify because his SA Derby final fractions were too high.
Cloud Computing is out because his Final fractions were too high.

I will point out that last year, Tale of Verve Placed. His last race was a MSW. So, while we can estimate who might win, we have to figure that one of the non qualifiers may get Place and/or show. I guess, this depends on the draw.

f2tornado
05-16-2017, 02:22 PM
Lots of chatter suggesting AD will get beat Saturday. Who will beat him and why? I could say the favorite will get beat in every race and I'd be right approximately two out of three times. The impact value however would be abysmal given there would be two winners for roughly every 25-30 starters.

Mc990
05-16-2017, 03:00 PM
Lots of chatter suggesting AD will get beat Saturday. Who will beat him and why? I could say the favorite will get beat in every race and I'd be right approximately two out of three times. The impact value however would be abysmal given there would be two winners for roughly every 25-30 starters.

Well... For starters, depending on what respectable speed figures you use, CE and Gunn both have faster races than AD...

Now obviously this isn't the end all be all but it's absolutely ridiculous to question who's going to beat him as if he lays over this field or something. If either of those bring their "A" race which I suspect at least 1 will, then AD better be sitting on an improvement or he'll be in trouble in the lane.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 03:13 PM
Classic Empire is the only horse that can beat him.


$1 Super = $24 bucks

AD, CE W/ AD, CE W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 03:31 PM
Classic Empire is the only horse that can beat him.


$1 Super = $24 bucks

AD, CE W/ AD, CE W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC

If you want any sort of a decent payout, you need the horses from your 3rd/4th legs in the exacta.

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 05:13 PM
Classic Empire is the only horse that can beat him.


$1 Super = $24 bucks

AD, CE W/ AD, CE W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC W/ CMM, Gunn, Hence, CC



if i only had $24 to make my bets this wouldn't be it. how can you even justify leaving out LoL but including gunny,hence and CC? and contrary to some CE is no lock for 2nd, let alone for the win imo. sure if he can be in position his chances increase, and yes he's a top horse in the race. and yes people should use him. but i think he's much more questionable than AD. CE was fortunate to even beat CMM, and i hit that number big in the ark.


as for some posts in here and the possible "bounce"...i have to lol at what i've read from a few posters and the zero credibility they presented

and another thing.....i don't know what people were watching or spewing in here but most races leading up to the derby and the derby itself the rail was dead. it was even more evident in the derby that no jock wanted to be closest to it, let alone hug it. the one path was open for quite a bit of the race. imo that makes AD race a little better than it was, and once he cleared your honor he was teetering on the "kryptonite" zone. if the rail was live he prolly wins by much more

Julz
05-16-2017, 06:08 PM
CE because he may just be better. Gunner because he will have lots of speed to run at. He also has a dry fast track to run on. His solute was 0-20 with offspring in the mud going into the derby. Also, AD is not pharoah or chrome.

Julz
05-16-2017, 06:10 PM
Don't laugh. If you want laugh now, you won't be after the race. You can make me eat crow after the race but AD WILL NOT WIN.

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 07:16 PM
CE because he may just be better. Gunner because he will have lots of speed to run at. He also has a dry fast track to run on. His solute was 0-20 with offspring in the mud going into the derby. Also, AD is not pharoah or chrome.

Don't laugh. If you want laugh now, you won't be after the race. You can make me eat crow after the race but AD WILL NOT WIN.

dude,...

what a bunch of mush.

if CE may just be better, you can say that to CMM and a couple other as well. but none of it is true now.

AD already buried gunny twice and the preakness w/ the projected 10 horses doesn't have lotz of speed in it like you think. if i had a limited bankroll i wouldn't even play half the field for 3rd because of it.

it shouldn't surprise many if CMM is itm again as well. he figures to be on the lead in reasonable fractions. and once again he might be overlooked.

as for you yourself knowing what AD is..and saying that he's no AP or CC is awful, because you don't know, even if you use caps to stress your limited viewpoint.

Julz
05-16-2017, 07:51 PM
Tuscy-I think I struck a sore spot. You must like AD a lot. My data is not limited but very specific and vast. I am 100 percent confident he will not win this race, and I like the horse. You can only laugh and call me limited after the race, if you prove me wrong. CE is a better horse and ran a better race with a horrible trip. Miracle he finished 4th. Gunner I already wrote about. He already was in he derby when he ran against AD. He didn't need the race. They saved him. Broke from the outside post which was 3-122 going into the Florida derby. Dead with no shot before the race, yet cam home in 59 seconds for the last 5 furlongs and 36 1/5 for the final eigth. Strong. His sire was 0-20 with his offspring on wet track. Gunner had no shot in he mud. You will see a much different race on a dry, fast track. My information is not limited at all. I wish you luck in however you play, just reserve judgement until after the race. If I'm wrong, I'll stand by it and take it like a man.

arw629
05-16-2017, 08:00 PM
Ok. So, if we erase the Kentucky Derby and and start over with this field and apply the Handicapping the Triple Crown method, our qualifiers are the following:

Always Dreaming
Classic Empire
Lookin at Lee
Gunnevera
Conquest MO Money

Hence, Multiplier, Senior Investment would not qualify because they did not run in a big 6 Prep.

Term of Art would not qualify because his SA Derby final fractions were too high.
Cloud Computing is out because his Final fractions were too high.

I will point out that last year, Tale of Verve Placed. His last race was a MSW. So, while we can estimate who might win, we have to figure that one of the non qualifiers may get Place and/or show. I guess, this depends on the draw.

I'm betting Conquest Mo Money to win and I'm using classic empire, Conquest Mo money, and Always Dreaming in pick 4s

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 08:03 PM
Tuscy-I think I struck a sore spot. You must like AD a lot. My data is not limited but very specific and vast. I am 100 percent confident he will not win this race, and I like the horse. You can only laugh and call me limited after the race, if you prove me wrong. CE is a better horse and ran a better race with a horrible trip. Miracle he finished 4th. Gunner I already wrote about. He already was in he derby when he ran against AD. He didn't need the race. They saved him. Broke from the outside post which was 3-122 going into the Florida derby. Dead with no shot before the race, yet cam home in 59 seconds for the last 5 furlongs and 36 1/5 for the final eigth. Strong. His sire was 0-20 with his offspring on wet track. Gunner had no shot in he mud. You will see a much different race on a dry, fast track. My information is not limited at all. I wish you luck in however you play, just reserve judgement until after the race. If I'm wrong, I'll stand by it and take it like a man.


AD may not win. but it certainly won't be from anything compelling that you said or you suggested to others as to why. but i'm sure you'll peacock yourself around here claiming some kind of victory in your mind if he doesn't. and if he does win you can always triple up in the belmont and start it all over again.

burnsy
05-16-2017, 08:12 PM
I'll do what I always do for exotic bets. Exacta Key Boxes. I think Always Dreaming is better than these but anyone that says only one horse can beat him is either crazy or has not been following this game for very long. I'm never surprised by the outcome, I learned to expect anything to happen long ago. People come up with "pat", "lock" scenarios. A. That never makes you good money and B. Horse Racing is never that easy.

When they come in Chalk, chalk, I've learned to enjoy ripping my tickets up. I'm not looking to cash that, I'd rather lose because when I hit, it more than makes up for 10 of those. If one does not take shots, they never get ahead in this game.

Julz
05-16-2017, 08:12 PM
I don't need praise from you. I said what I said and will stand by it. Do yourself a favor and look elsewhere. Just trying to save you some heart ache, money, and a miserable day. After the race, there will be no need for me to gloat. It's all in writing whether you think it's compelling or not. It's a hard stance against. I'll just sit back and count, in silence. As for you and Always Dreaming-good luck with that.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 08:21 PM
if i only had $24 to make my bets this wouldn't be it. how can you even justify leaving out LoL but including gunny,hence and CC? and contrary to some CE is no lock for 2nd, let alone for the win imo. sure if he can be in position his chances increase, and yes he's a top horse in the race. and yes people should use him. but i think he's much more questionable than AD. CE was fortunate to even beat CMM, and i hit that number big in the ark.


as for some posts in here and the possible "bounce"...i have to lol at what i've read from a few posters and the zero credibility they presented

and another thing.....i don't know what people were watching or spewing in here but most races leading up to the derby and the derby itself the rail was dead. it was even more evident in the derby that no jock wanted to be closest to it, let alone hug it. the one path was open for quite a bit of the race. imo that makes AD race a little better than it was, and once he cleared your honor he was teetering on the "kryptonite" zone. if the rail was live he prolly wins by much more

I dont know about 'golden' but the rail was certainly 'favorable' thats why right after the race the outrider made a joke to Johnny V that was caught on camera and he said "I told yyou to stay toward the rail" Thats why I wouldnt put Lookin At Lee in that super, he peaked in the derby and is fools gold. LAL benifited from the rail. Plus he very well could be the third choice adding no value to teh super. Luckily that will be one of many bets I make. I am with you on Always Dreaming winning this race. Favorable rail or not AD would still have won, he breaks perfectly and will carve out another perfect trip. No doubt about it. To everyone banking on a bounce let me be the first to say thanks for the money. just kidding, probably just jinxed it and you should thank me.

Julz
05-16-2017, 08:26 PM
I get it, Pace. As you can see, I've already jinxed myself too. Done. I read your post and I think Lee is actually the real deal. I know he had a good trip on the rail, but every raced I've watched he's always coming. Seems like a really good horse to me. One that I actually underrated. Curious as to why you don't like him for an in the money finish, and why you think he may have peaked already.

f2tornado
05-16-2017, 08:30 PM
If someone is 100% confident AD is gonna lose then that is the time to unload at the betting windows. I don't see a compelling case from the Empire crowd. The horse lost 4 lengths to AD in final quarter in Kentucky. Gunner got whipped by AD twice and not like he was gaining much on AD in Florida. Further, deep closing wins are relatively rare in the Preakness. CMM is a fine horse that will likely win his share of G3 type stakes at 8.5F. He was wobbly and whipped in Arkansas and would have been passed by a maiden with another 1/16th. LoL looked better in KY then the paper score. He only gained 1.5 lengths on AD in the final quarter and now has 1/16th less to run at. One must admire his improving figures each race however. If AD loses then you will take my money. I will only have token saver wager on Empire but I'm starting to wonder if that horse simply has faulty Juvenile speed figures. I will consider taking a stand against AD in the Belmont where I do think he is quite vulnerable.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 08:34 PM
If someone is 100% confident AD is gonna lose then that is the time to unload at the betting windows. I don't see a compelling case from the Empire crowd. The horse lost 4 lengths to AD in final quarter in Kentucky. Gunner got whipped by AD twice and not like he was gaining much on AD in Florida. Further, deep closing wins are relatively rare in the Preakness. CMM is a fine horse that will likely win his share of G3 type stakes at 8.5F. He was wobbly and whipped in Arkansas and would have been passed by a maiden with another 1/16th. LoL looked better in KY then the paper score. He only gained 1.5 lengths on AD in the final quarter and now has 1/16th less to run at. One must admire his improving figures each race however. If AD loses then you will take my money. I will only have token saver wager on Empire but I'm starting to wonder if that horse simply has faulty Juvenile speed figures. I will consider taking a stand against AD in the Belmont where I do think he is quite vulnerable.

What he said...


In addition tho Lookin At Lee will have less distance and less pace to run at. The Preakness is not closer friendly. Although he is solid his derby was his peak.

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 08:36 PM
and another thing.....i don't know what people were watching or spewing in here but most races leading up to the derby and the derby itself the rail was dead. it was even more evident in the derby that no jock wanted to be closest to it, let alone hug it. the one path was open for quite a bit of the race. imo that makes AD race a little better than it was, and once he cleared your honor he was teetering on the "kryptonite" zone. if the rail was live he prolly wins by much more

We're we watching the same race? In the walkover Casse clearly said that they were worried and wanted to get Classic Empire down on the rail because it was hot...not to mention the outrider telling Johnny V after the race that he "told him" the rail was the place to be.

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 08:47 PM
We're we watching the same race? In the walkover Casse clearly said that they were worried and wanted to get Classic Empire down on the rail because it was hot...not to mention the outrider telling Johnny V after the race that he "told him" the rail was the place to be.


casse was clearly wrong and didn't know wtf he was talking about. if the rail was the place to be there would have been horses on it taking the shortest distance to the winner circle. instead of avoiding it

Julz
05-16-2017, 08:48 PM
I saw the same thing. He apparently didn't listen very well. In any event, no matter what the horse, I could never bet a horse at 4/5 at parx or Mahoning, let alone the Preakness. You can get those odds every day, every race....at finger lakes.

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 08:49 PM
casse was clearly wrong and didn't know wtf he was talking about. if the rail was the place to be there would have been horses on it taking the shortest distance to the winner circle. instead of avoiding it

Like Laneries "Bo Rail" ride on Lookin at Lee?

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 08:52 PM
What he said...


In addition tho Lookin At Lee will have less distance and less pace to run at. The Preakness is not closer friendly. Although he is solid his derby was his peak.


hey,..you could bet whoever you want to bet. but to leave out LoL and playing the other 3 makes no sense to me since it's only a few extra dollars and little separate them..

it may not matter anyway as none of the closers appear to have much of a chance in what should be a paceless preakness...

AD might pike them, and CMM really doesn't have to be on the lead either. that's it..that's your preakness speed....good luck gunny.

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 08:55 PM
Like Laneries "Bo Rail" ride on Lookin at Lee?

it's different w/ LoL....he had no choice but to shoot up the rail for better or for worse. his finish was even more impressive because of it...regardless if he got a great trip

no jock wanted near the rail. i won't even debate this anymore

Julz
05-16-2017, 08:55 PM
If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 09:04 PM
If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

ummm huh? :confused:

what group is on the front end?

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 09:07 PM
it's different w/ LoL....he had no choice but to shoot up the rail for better or for worse. his finish was even more impressive because of it...regardless if he got a great trip

no jock wanted near the rail. i won't even debate this anymore

There were 3 horses in the race that were 1 wide around both turns....AD, LAL, and Fast and Accurate (who never had a chance to begin with)...Staying on the rail apparently wasn't a bad thing.

dilanesp
05-16-2017, 09:12 PM
Most of the Derby/Preakness winners had perfect or close to perfect trips in the Derby. American Pharoah, California Chrome, I'll Have Another, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, and Silver Charm all had pretty close to perfect Derby trips. Sunday Silence and Alysheba had some trouble.

This shouldn't surprise anyone. The best way to win the Derby and Preakness is to have enough tactical speed to seize control of a middle distance race. Horses with this style tend to get good trips, unless they get forced into a pressured pace (such as Nyquist did last year, or American Pharoah in the Travers).

I think bettors routinely betting against Derby winners in the Preakness on the grounds that the Derby winner got a perfect trip and without regard to the preps and whether said horse was actually a top-class horse going in have probably lost pretty big betting the Preakness over the years.

(OTOH, such horses rarely win the Belmont.)

Julz
05-16-2017, 09:19 PM
ummm huh? :confused:

what group is on the front end?

I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 09:23 PM
I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

Cloud Computing is a stalker maybe he goes but doubtful, Term of Art is a.... wait term of art got into the preakness??? Someone double check that... lol just kidding. term of art is a closer... and a turd of one I might add

f2tornado
05-16-2017, 09:23 PM
If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.

I don't recall a Preakness chart in history with those fractions and nothing on the preliminary list indicates any have ever run so fast. Royal Mo was arguably the best early speed horse but he's out. That leaves the fresh but underwhelming Cloud Computing and Conquest Mo. If anyone gets cooked it's those two. It's gonna look like Mr. Z versus American Pharoah.

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 09:23 PM
I think AD, conquest, cloud computing, term of art- battle up front. I do think there is going to be a meltdown up front. Much more so than in the derby.

Considering Term of Art has never been close to the pace in any of his previous 9 starts and has always been a closer, why would he be pressing the pace in he Preakness?

Julz
05-16-2017, 09:38 PM
Considering Term of Art has never been close to the pace in any of his previous 9 starts and has always been a closer, why would he be pressing the pace in he Preakness?

Although he is a turd, he will gum up the works. He had a 102 Bris early on in his last race from a bad post. Oneil was quoted in an article that he has changed tactics with the horse and will send him early.

AirNate012
05-16-2017, 09:50 PM
Although he is a turd, he will gum up the works. He had a 102 Bris early on in his last race from a bad post. Oneil was quoted in an article that he has changed tactics with the horse and will send him early.

Link to that article?

Julz
05-16-2017, 10:08 PM
Paulick Report

boys at tosconova
05-16-2017, 10:10 PM
If you think there is no pace, you must not follow horse racing. This group is going 22 and 45, which will cook AD. It's either classic empire or Gunnevera mowing them down. Gunnevera needs no luck in this one.


lol...the more i engage you the more nonsense you speak. the only way they go fast early is if some horse does something other than he's done in the past and messes things up. and that's something you can't forecast. ...and a big lol at saying terms of art is going to battle on the front

There were 3 horses in the race that were 1 wide around both turns....AD, LAL, and Fast and Accurate (who never had a chance to begin with)...Staying on the rail apparently wasn't a bad thing.

cool. the other 17 horses that stayed away from it like the plague don't count. so you're right

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 10:43 PM
lol...the more i engage you the more nonsense you speak. the only way they go fast early is if some horse does something other than he's done in the past and messes things up. and that's something you can't forecast. ...and a big lol at saying terms of art is going to battle on the front

so right :headbanger:



cool. the other 17 horses that stayed away from it like the plague don't count. so you're right


so wrong :bang:

Mc990
05-16-2017, 10:45 PM
cool. the other 17 horses that stayed away from it like the plague don't count. so you're right[/QUOTE]

Right. It was run like most 20 horse derbies... Not everyone can be 1w1w the whole way in a 20 horse field.

You're entitled to your opinion and obviously there is much debate in regard to the possible rail bias derby day or whether or not biases even exist.... One thing is for sure though and that is the rail was anything but dead. There is not a shred of data that would point to it being detrimental.

It sounds like you cashed the derby exacta... If you did, congrats. You attended the wedding, don't be a part of the funeral...

Julz
05-16-2017, 11:11 PM
cool. the other 17 horses that stayed away from it like the plague don't count. so you're right

Right. It was run like most 20 horse derbies... Not everyone can be 1w1w the whole way in a 20 horse field.

You're entitled to your opinion and obviously there is much debate in regard to the possible rail bias derby day or whether or not biases even exist.... One thing is for sure though and that is the rail was anything but dead. There is not a shred of data that would point to it being detrimental.

It sounds like you cashed the derby exacta... If you did, congrats. You attended the wedding, don't be a part of the funeral...[/QUOTE]

What he said. :headbanger:

Gerard02
05-17-2017, 07:37 AM
I've watched replays of AD in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. He's a fluid runner that can stalk the pace up close. Johnny V sat on him patiently and did not hustle the horse, until it was time to go. I feel watching the jockey is just as vital as the horse. If you have a good eye, you can catch a subtle move or see if the jock is getting into the horse too soon. In both races, he sits nice and waits patiently for that moment. In the stretch of both races, he pulls the whip and taps AD a few time, but does not really get into him until well into the stretch, then eases up as he pulls away.

I have watched his training videos on DRF. He bucks and dances like a happy horse. I'll admit, I'm not as experienced as you gentlemen, but I do not see anything wrong with this horse. If he follows his pattern, he should stalk the pace and the. Pass them. I think CMM will take the lead. AD will stalk him. Gunny and Classic appear to be the sit back horses as well as Lookin at Lee. Cloud computing, I have not figured out yet. As I see it, AD stalks and passes CMM on the turn as they enter the stretch. If he shows the same energy, he holds off the charge of CE, Gunny and LAL. This could be your super, but after watching Tale of Verve come in second in last years Preakness, I can't rule out the others for the chop. Anyway, the conversation is excellent. I'm glad I can be a part of it. In the end, it's all a matter,of luck when they come out of the gate.

f2tornado
05-17-2017, 12:39 PM
This could be your super, but after watching Tale of Verve come in second in last years Preakness, I can't rule out the others for the chop.

Tale of Verve was 2015. Last year, Cherry Wine took the place pool. Both years featured a pile of slop. In 2015, Firing Line slipped coming out of the gate and lost all chance, not that he was going to beat AP that day. The weather should be nice in Baltimore this weekend hopefully leading to races running somewhat to form. The superfecta you suggested is a decent wager and only costs 60 cents for the dime version.

Gerard02
05-17-2017, 08:14 PM
My apologies for getting the dates of the Preakness wrong. Now, with the post positions assigned, I'd say AD and CE got nice posts. One Preakness angle I have from American Turf Monthly advises downgrading posts 1-4. I'm going to stick with AD. I'm mulling a Triple part wheel AD/CE/all CE /AD/all. I'm also looking at a AD/CMM/all CE/CMM/all. Also, doing a Triple box 4-5-9.

f2tornado
05-17-2017, 09:18 PM
Will start cheap with $20 Exacta AD/CE and $5 the other way. Maybe get 4-1. If less than that then will play tri and super exclusively. I will use Multiplier as my exotics bomber. He's the potential Tale of Verve this renewal. A closer but not from the clouds. Very fast final fractions in Illinois. If CE tanks then this guy could really beef up the gimmicks.

arw629
05-18-2017, 01:18 AM
Why can't Conquest Mo Money wire this field?

PowerUpPaynter
05-18-2017, 07:55 AM
Why can't Conquest Mo Money wire this field?

not good enough?

f2tornado
05-18-2017, 08:31 AM
Why can't Conquest Mo Money wire this field?

His early speed is overrated. He has equal or better speed to his inside. He lost ground to the winner in last two 9F races now adds a 1/16th. He's been beat by two of these and would have been passed by another one in the Ark if given another 1/16th.

Julz
05-18-2017, 11:55 PM
He definitely can win this race, however there may be a lot of speed and I think CMM WILL burn with AD which will set up for the closers. He does have a legit shot though.

arw629
05-19-2017, 12:32 AM
His early speed is overrated. He has equal or better speed to his inside. He lost ground to the winner in last two 9F races now adds a 1/16th. He's been beat by two of these and would have been passed by another one in the Ark if given another 1/16th.

There was way more speed in both of those races and he still stuck around for 2nd. He will clear and make the lead easily.

Gerard02
05-19-2017, 04:40 PM
All that remains now, is to watch the odds and see what's worth a bet. I'm going with a Super so far 4-5/10-4-5/all/all. I may take 4/5/any and box them in order for .50 cents. The only exacta worth playing is 4-9, since, these were the only two to qualify on the rules. CE is going to go off around 2-1, I think, so an exacta part wheel is too risky at $2. If these two hit one two, it's a heavy loss in that sector. Looks like the Triple and Super is the way to go. Unless, someone has a suggestion? Anyway, good luck to you all. :ThmbUp:

dilanesp
05-19-2017, 05:46 PM
All that remains now, is to watch the odds and see what's worth a bet. I'm going with a Super so far 4-5/10-4-5/all/all. I may take 4/5/any and box them in order for .50 cents. The only exacta worth playing is 4-9, since, these were the only two to qualify on the rules. CE is going to go off around 2-1, I think, so an exacta part wheel is too risky at $2. If these two hit one two, it's a heavy loss in that sector. Looks like the Triple and Super is the way to go. Unless, someone has a suggestion? Anyway, good luck to you all. :ThmbUp:

4/5 with 4/5/10 with all with all strikes me as a style of betting that cannot, by definition, be profitable long term.

dballard125
05-19-2017, 09:55 PM
Right. It was run like most 20 horse derbies... Not everyone can be 1w1w the whole way in a 20 horse field.

You're entitled to your opinion and obviously there is much debate in regard to the possible rail bias derby day or whether or not biases even exist.... One thing is for sure though and that is the rail was anything but dead. There is not a shred of data that would point to it being detrimental.

It sounds like you cashed the derby exacta... If you did, congrats. You attended the wedding, don't be a part of the funeral...


That's this clown shows MO. Passing off opinion as fact, then never coming back to back up his bullsh*t. Guarantee the dude is either in used car sales, or politics because he's as FOS as they come.

rastajenk
05-19-2017, 10:03 PM
4/5 with 4/5/10 with all with all strikes me as a style of betting that cannot, by definition, be profitable long term.But it ain't long term; it's one race, sometimes it falls that way.

Gerard02
05-19-2017, 11:06 PM
4/5 with 4/5/10 with all with all strikes me as a style of betting that cannot, by definition, be profitable long term.

How so?

Mc990
05-19-2017, 11:36 PM
That's this clown shows MO. Passing off opinion as fact, then never coming back to back up his bullsh*t. Guarantee the dude is either in used car sales, or politics because he's as FOS as they come.

I'll choose to take that as a compliment... What exactly do you want me to back up though? AD and LAL will be underlaid tmrw... Yes, that's my opinion. It was a comment based on value. Period.

dilanesp
05-20-2017, 04:20 AM
How so?

Two reasons:

1. Boxing the two favorites at the top of an exotic is almost always a huge underlay.

2. Ticking the all box is basically always wrong, as it places equal amounts of money on combinations with vastly different probabilities. It's just hoping something silly will happen but without any handicapping to determine whether anything silly will actually happen. It's just pure gambling hoping for a boxcar payoff.

Gerard02
05-20-2017, 09:23 AM
Two reasons:

1. Boxing the two favorites at the top of an exotic is almost always a huge underlay.

2. Ticking the all box is basically always wrong, as it places equal amounts of money on combinations with vastly different probabilities. It's just hoping something silly will happen but without any handicapping to determine whether anything silly will actually happen. It's just pure gambling hoping for a boxcar payoff.

Thanksgiving. Something to think about. Guess, I'm just covering my butt. When I played Orb in the Derby, I part wheeled him with all, but two horses. Guess, what happened? One of the two, Golden Soul, came in place. However, this wager is just for the Preakness. I probably would not play a Super for other races like this. Thanks for the feedback.

n.c
05-21-2017, 09:31 AM
i keyed CC and CE and got the .50c tri...

ML AD was 4/5 while he went out at 3/2..so stayed away from AD. Beyer said he will completely leave out AD from the top 4 due to the bias at CD. He probably crushed it yesterday.

n.c
05-21-2017, 09:36 AM
The same person who picked Practical Joke to win the derby is picking Cloud Computing to win the derby how does he have a job in racing


Matthew Pappis‏

CincyHorseplayer
05-21-2017, 01:06 PM
I hope the stupidity of betting favorites is etched in your mind forever.

PowerUpPaynter
05-21-2017, 07:09 PM
and another thing.....i don't know what people were watching or spewing in here but most races leading up to the derby and the derby itself the rail was dead. it was even more evident in the derby that no jock wanted to be closest to it, let alone hug it. the one path was open for quite a bit of the race. imo that makes AD race a little better than it was, and once he cleared your honor he was teetering on the "kryptonite" zone. if the rail was live he prolly wins by much more

so much for that dead derby rail theory. Lee and AD surely benefited from the rail that day and we can close the book on that conversation.

arw629
05-21-2017, 08:07 PM
so much for that dead derby rail theory. Lee and AD surely benefited from the rail that day and we can close the book on that conversation.

Wasn't it obvious watching the race the first time?!

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 01:46 PM
So, how did this thread work out for everyone? :lol:

My guess? We won't see Boyz back again until around late March 2018...:pound:

f2tornado
05-22-2017, 03:34 PM
Props to those who picked CC. New shooters rarely win the Preakness and after a slow Wood that did noting to flatter him after the KY Derby, I gave him little shot even even after respecting the RAN sire line and Buckpasser-x. I'm chalking it up as one of those one in five year flukes. There's no way I would have hit the trifecta even if I did jump on him. Fortunately, I backed off my Peakness wagers considerably when the track was a bit saucy in the morning.

CincyHorseplayer
05-22-2017, 03:37 PM
So, how did this thread work out for everyone? :lol:

My guess? We won't see Boyz back again until around late March 2018...:pound:

Good call. Have to be 1-9 on this!

dilanesp
05-22-2017, 06:14 PM
Props to those who picked CC. New shooters rarely win the Preakness and after a slow Wood that did noting to flatter him after the KY Derby, I gave him little shot even even after respecting the RAN sire line and Buckpasser-x. I'm chalking it up as one of those one in five year flukes. There's no way I would have hit the trifecta even if I did jump on him. Fortunately, I backed off my Peakness wagers considerably when the track was a bit saucy in the morning.

I have to say, the thing that really kept me from considering CC seriously was that the Wood and Gotham looked like weak races with possibly inflated figures. Horses like J Boys Echo and Irish War Cry looked like they couldn't replicate their performances in other races. So I figured "so what, let's say CC wins those races if he hadn't gotten into trouble, I still would figure he was stepping up in class quite a bit here".

I was clearly wrong about this.

delsully
05-22-2017, 10:20 PM
Props to those who picked CC. New shooters rarely win the Preakness and after a slow Wood that did noting to flatter him after the KY Derby, I gave him little shot even even after respecting the RAN sire line and Buckpasser-x. I'm chalking it up as one of those one in five year flukes. There's no way I would have hit the trifecta even if I did jump on him. Fortunately, I backed off my Peakness wagers considerably when the track was a bit saucy in the morning.

The wood was tough to judge because the track seemed to favor speed that day and CC had a rough start and raced wide into the first turn. Considering it was only his 3rd start, I thought he ran decently. But mostly, I find it difficult to judge lightly raced horses like him in a relatively quality field. Luckily, this wasnt a quality field.

Unfortunately for me, SI kept me from a nice tri score.

Mc990
05-24-2017, 11:09 AM
That's this clown shows MO. Passing off opinion as fact, then never coming back to back up his bullsh*t. Guarantee the dude is either in used car sales, or politics because he's as FOS as they come.

Anything else? No? Ok, next opinion... CE and Epicharis will be massively overbet if they make the gate for the Belmont.

If he's doing well, I think Tapwrit is the one you want and maybe even deserves favoritism... He's got the figures and looks to be sitting on maybe his best yet. Love his pattern.

As an aside... I'm certainly no great visual judge of horses but he does seem like he may appreciate the Belmont configuration... Doesn't look like he corners all that well... Reminiscent of another talented Tapit colt who certainly took to the surface.

Grits
05-24-2017, 11:58 AM
Anything else? No? Ok, next opinion... CE and Epicharis will be massively overbet if they make the gate for the Belmont.

What on earth leads you to believe that a Japanese horse making only his third start, going a 1 1/2 in the Belmont Stakes is going to be massively overbet?

How long have you been following the Belmont Stakes? Or, what am I not understanding?

Mc990
05-24-2017, 01:23 PM
What on earth leads you to believe that a Japanese horse making only his third start, going a 1 1/2 in the Belmont Stakes is going to be massively overbet?

How long have you been following the Belmont Stakes? Or, what am I not understanding?

What you're not understanding is that he's currently 2nd choice in the offshore odds. He may be slightly higher odds once the US pools open but he'll be no bargain...

Robert Fischer
05-24-2017, 01:36 PM
If you love Epicharis, you will get playable odds, so long as Classic Empire doesn't duck the race.

You aren't going to get a huge price, but Classic Empire should take significant money, and Epicharis should be clearly separated in that next tier, perhaps tied for 3rd public choice.

Grits
05-24-2017, 01:48 PM
What you're not understanding is that he's currently 2nd choice in the offshore odds. He may be slightly higher odds once the US pools open but he'll be no bargain...

Ok. Thank you, Mc990.

However, I still don't see it. I thought of Lani who had more starts under him than this one. Lani ran in all three TC races and only managed 3rd in the Belmont. Still.. wishing you a good price if you bet him.

f2tornado
05-24-2017, 02:11 PM
If he's doing well, I think Tapwrit is the one you want and maybe even deserves favoritism... He's got the figures and looks to be sitting on maybe his best yet. Love his pattern.

I am inclined to agree. Reminds me a lot of Destin but with better top side breeding. Destin had the dreaded Storm Cat sire line and got nosed at the Belmont wire.

My fear is the Belmont is going to be a wide open affair with a gate full of 9/2 and 5-1 odds horses without the heavy favorite making boxcar exotics payouts difficult to achieve. Maybe I'll take one or two choices over the field in tri wagering and hope for the best. That would have worked out well in the Preakness two of last three years.