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View Full Version : the rail had a bigger opening than when moses parted the red sea


boys at tosconova
05-08-2017, 02:38 AM
and looking at lee was the only horse that dared to use it.

jhchrist....no other horses wanted to be near it because they were afraid it would jeopardize their chances.

if lee had any traffic or gets cut off just once midway finishes 2nd and i make quite the score. the exacta with AD for around 5 hundo


haaaaaa.

plainolebill
05-08-2017, 04:06 AM
Good rider on a nothing to lose horse with the right running style to clunk up for a check. Great angle. Oh yeah don't forget the one hole.. How'd I miss that?

rastajenk
05-08-2017, 08:03 AM
One of the reasons I felt good about using the :1: was that Lanerie knows his way around Churchill and wouldn't panic as the action entered the stretch from the turn. Not unlike Borel for a few years a decade ago.

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 09:56 AM
I used AD/Lee (all others) and BoM in the Future pool. I would have made more had BoM finished second but no complaints. Nice to know you have over a grand banked at the 1/8th pole. Equibase referred to LoL as having a dream trip. I rarely see those words tossed out except by forum gurus.

elhelmete
05-08-2017, 12:15 PM
I used AD/Lee (all others) and BoM in the Future pool. I would have made more had BoM finished second but no complaints. Nice to know you have over a grand banked at the 1/8th pole. Equibase referred to LoL as having a dream trip. I rarely see those words tossed out except by forum gurus.

I noticed that too and thought it was noteworthy.

Robert Fischer
05-08-2017, 01:19 PM
That was a great ride by Lanerie.

If you are a good horseplayer, you knew that rail-skimming ride was in his arsenal, and you know the etymology of that rail-skimmi ng ride.

A really sharp horseplayer would have hit that exacta
5 X AD w/ the B'S IWC/PJ/BOM/CE
1 X AD w/ all fringe contenders GUN/MCC/GORM/TAP/HEN/JBOY/GIR/LAL

A really, REALLY sharp player may have bet an extra scenario-based .50 tri
AD/LAL/IWC,PJ,BOM,CE,GUN,MCC,GORM,TAP,HEN,JBOY,GIR
and
AD/IWC,PJ,BOM,CE,GUN,MCC,GORM,TAP,HEN,JBOY,GIR/LAL
to cover the chance of such a ride, considering his big price.

but a sharp player would be unlikely to spend the additional outlay required to put together a superfecta key based upon the unlikely scenario that Lanerie gets a clean trip AND employs a perfect rail-skimming ride.

More players hit the place horse from bad handicapping (thinking LaL was a contender), or the 'All' button(covering AD exactas with at least one ALL ticket underneath), than they did from anticipating a unique situation.

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 02:16 PM
I commented here how Brisnet LP 95+ horse have made up all but four or five exactas since 2000 and I don't recall an exacta without one. A smart player would stick to his guns and play AD/all LP. I believe there were eight others. Every $8 played would have returned $160 or so. The trifecta would have been tough. I did use AD/BoM in the future wager but the Santa Anita Derby was so dang slow and there were a plethora of other horses that could have hit it. I suppose AD/the 8 LP/ALL would have been a reasonable $76 play with a $4k payout. Even if the chalk hit you'd get money back. Perhaps a lesson for next year.

Grits
05-08-2017, 03:22 PM
More players hit the place horse from bad handicapping (thinking LaL was a contender), or the 'All' button(covering AD exactas with at least one ALL ticket underneath), than they did from anticipating a unique situation.I guess I'm a bad handicapper. Sometimes, we think and think and think some more. We think so much we're often swimming in number crunching and because of this alone we conclude possibles, no shots.

All day I was getting killed with my exactas. Limousine Liberal broke my heart when I'd taken the #1 horse out of my box at the last minute.

Still, perhaps I handicap badly. During Derby betting, I made the decision to bet ... across the board, the 1 and the 11. Looking At Lee was a deep closer on the Pace Projector, along with the 10 and 12. He also tied for the highest late pace figure. Too, I was well aware of Corey Lanerie's riding titles and Asmussen's training titles at CD.

As far as Battle of Midway goes. The Pace Projector showed him up on the pace. I didn't like Gormley who beat him in the SA Derby, the reason being I like trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer (a lot) and his shipping record better. I didn't believe this man would ever ship in for the Derby unless he thought his horse could well be in the mix--if not win it with a good trip.

So, with these two I made very good money at large odds. However, it wasn't enough to make up for my split exactas earlier on the card.

I look at all of you gentlemen's picks (especially PA's value line). Still, I have to stick with my own decision, my bad handicapping. ..... Even a blind squirrel finds a few nuts once in a while, though, not always enough to cover.

Exotic1
05-08-2017, 03:36 PM
I guess I'm a bad handicapper. Sometimes, we think and think and think some more. We think so much we're often swimming in number crunching and because of this alone we conclude possibles, no shots.

All day I was getting killed with my exactas. Limousine Liberal broke my heart when I'd taken the #1 horse out of my box at the last minute.

Still, perhaps I handicap badly. During Derby betting, I made the decision to bet ... across the board, the 1 and the 11. Looking At Lee was a deep closer on the Pace Projector, along with the 10 and 12. He also tied for the highest late pace figure. Too, I was well aware of Corey Lanerie's riding titles and Asmussen's training titles at CD.

As far as Battle of Midway goes. The Pace Projector showed him up on the pace. I didn't like Gormley who beat him in the SA Derby, the reason being I like trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer (a lot) and his shipping record better. I didn't believe this man would ever ship in for the Derby unless he thought his horse could well be in the mix--if not win it with a good trip.

So, with these two I made very good money at large odds. However, it wasn't enough to make up for my split exactas earlier on the card.

I look at all of you gentlemen's picks (especially PA's value line). Still, I have to stick with my own decision, my bad handicapping. ..... Even a blind squirrel finds a few nuts once in a while, though, not always enough to cover.

From a handicapping perspective, the #1 and #11 made lots of sense, imo. #1 was an in-form closer on a live rail. #11 was hard used into a very strong pace in the SA Derby, figured to get a good trip. I used these (and others) in multi's but wasn't smart enough to play verticals keying Always Dreaming or even a tri box. There was 30MM in the triple pool.