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PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 07:16 PM
Early indications are the majority of the Preakness will be made of of new shooters. Who was the last new shooter to win the Preakness?

Julz
05-07-2017, 08:37 PM
I believe Bernardini. I think something crazy like 90% of Preakness winners come from the derby.

minethatbird08
05-07-2017, 08:50 PM
Rachel Alexandera

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 09:37 PM
https://twitter.com/andyserling/status/861371597361479681

Julz
05-07-2017, 09:41 PM
I so hope he's beatable, but out of the horses going in, I don't think he has a shot whatsoever.

arw629
05-07-2017, 09:54 PM
Conquest MO Money will take a ton of money in this race and Cloud Computing is a lot better than his last race showed. Always Dreaming is far from a lock.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 09:57 PM
Conquest MO Money will take a ton of money in this race and Cloud Computing is a lot better than his last race showed. Always Dreaming is far from a lock.

Cloud Computing really disappointed me in the Wood. Was very high on him.

señorclipclop
05-07-2017, 10:36 PM
https://twitter.com/andyserling/status/861371597361479681

Wow. Obvious now that the Gotham number was ridiculously overinflated. J Boys Echo and Cloud Computing were never factors in their races since. The horse that destroyed Cloud Computing in the Wood was a soundly beaten, no excuse 9th in the Derby.

arw629
05-07-2017, 10:46 PM
Cloud Computing really disappointed me in the Wood. Was very high on him.

The speed bias that day was absurd....everyone was high on him including myself until I saw how the track was playing. I tossed him all together. It takes a special horse to overcome a strong track bias in a stakes race. Did you see the 53-1 upset in the Carter?!?! Track biases are a real thing

arw629
05-07-2017, 10:47 PM
Wow. Obvious now that the Gotham number was ridiculously overinflated. J Boys Echo and Cloud Computing were never never factors in their races since. The horse that destroyed Cloud Computing in the Wood was a soundly beaten, no excuse 9th in the Derby.

IWC was never getting 10 furlongs

handyman1968
05-07-2017, 11:37 PM
If you are looking to beat Always Dreaming and believe Classic Empire ran the best race of the beaten brigade, then Conquest Mo Money has to be considered no?

arw629
05-07-2017, 11:39 PM
If you are looking to beat Always Dreaming and believe Classic Empire ran the best race of the beaten brigade, then Conquest Mo Money has to be considered no?

Conquest MO Money will be like 4-1 in the Preakness

depalma113
05-08-2017, 06:16 AM
The last two outsiders to upset the Preakness were Champions.

Do you really think any horse coming into this race that wasn't in the Derby is a budding Champion?

Blenheim
05-08-2017, 09:02 PM
AD gets a drop in distance and any horse racing against him is likely outclassed - tough to beat that combo. It'll be interesting to watch his works, see how and what he does between now and then. Looked to me like Johnny V took a look back, tucked the whip away, gave a few fist pumps in victory before crossing the line, suggesting the horse wasn't fully extended and likely has some reserve energy.

At this point AD probably wins the Preakness easily, likely in hand w/some gas left in the tank. The real test comes at the true Classic distance up there in Elmont, NY.


:11:

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 09:17 PM
AD gets a drop in distance and any horse racing against him is likely outclassed - tough to beat that combo. It'll be interesting to watch his works, see how and what he does between now and then. Looked to me like Johnny V took a look back, tucked the whip away, gave a few fist pumps in victory before crossing the line, suggesting the horse wasn't fully extended and likely has some reserve energy.

At this point AD probably wins the Preakness easily, likely in hand w/some gas left in the tank. The real test comes at the true Classic distance up there in Elmont, NY.


:11:

id be shocked if it didnt look a lot like the Smarty Jones Preakness... the real fun will be picking that 41-1 in the Belmont. He wont win the Triple Crown he is no Pharoah, not even close, not even remotely close to California Chrome either... But a derby winner that will romp the Preakness none the less... #Respect

elhelmete
05-08-2017, 09:34 PM
The last two outsiders to upset the Preakness were Champions.

Do you really think any horse coming into this race that wasn't in the Derby is a budding Champion?

On the other end of the spectrum are horses like Arrogate who didn't make the TC but are now bolstering the older horse population and stakes schedule.

Julz
05-08-2017, 10:45 PM
I forget the exact stat but the winner of the Preakness always comes from the derby. It's something like 90% over 20 or 30 years.

Run Nicholas Run
05-09-2017, 01:27 AM
Conquest MO Money will be like 4-1 in the Preakness

I see bookmaking is not your vocation with that
absurd statement.

Tom
05-09-2017, 11:22 PM
The last two outsiders to upset the Preakness were Champions.

Do you really think any horse coming into this race that wasn't in the Derby is a budding Champion?

I don't think any horse that was in the Derby will be a champion.:rolleyes:

Gerard02
05-10-2017, 11:53 AM
So, far, early data has Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Looking at Lee and Gunnevera as the top four for the Preakness. As soon as I do my internal fractions, I will know for sure.

PowerUpPaynter
05-10-2017, 12:00 PM
The new shooters do seem exceptionally weak this year...

Gerard02
05-10-2017, 02:07 PM
Wow! Upon further review, only Always Dreamer and Lookin at Lee qualify. Classic Empire just missed a 95 beyer over his last two races with a 94. With all that trouble he had, I'm inclined to include him in my exotics. I'm sure he would have had that 95 beyer if he did not have so much trouble. The dilemma of playing these rules too strict.

upthecreek
05-10-2017, 02:07 PM
The last two outsiders to upset the Preakness were Champions.

Do you really think any horse coming into this race that wasn't in the Derby is a budding Champion?

One of my bigger scores was in 2000 Preakness with Red Bullet upsetting Fusiachi Pegasus
I don't consider Red Bullet any kind of champion

depalma113
05-14-2017, 09:59 AM
One of my bigger scores was in 2000 Preakness with Red Bullet upsetting Fusiachi Pegasus
I don't consider Red Bullet any kind of champion

True, but Red Bullet wasn't part of the last two.

upthecreek
05-14-2017, 01:52 PM
True, but Red Bullet wasn't part of the last two.
No kidding? The point is I dont think you need to be a "budding champion" to win the Peakness

letswastemoney
05-14-2017, 03:10 PM
Does Conquest Mo Money move up now? He won't have Royal Mo to hound him on the lead.

depalma113
05-14-2017, 09:21 PM
No kidding? The point is I dont think you need to be a "budding champion" to win the Peakness

To beat Always Dreaming or Classic Empire yeah I think they would have to be.

Sunday Silence
05-16-2017, 03:07 AM
Does Conquest Mo Money move up now? He won't have Royal Mo to hound him on the lead.

He has to. Less speed in the race.

theotherside
05-16-2017, 03:36 AM
What has he shown? This horse has nothing.

PowerUpPaynter
05-16-2017, 07:16 AM
What has he shown? This horse has nothing.

Pretty solid pedigree