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charleslanger
08-01-2004, 01:31 PM
Horse Xchange-- lay to lose in parlays of 4:

All times Eastern-- Racetrack / Race#-- PP#-- Name-- ML-- Fave Rank

1:00 Saratoga 1st #4 Nicely---------------------- 3-1 --Favorite
1:40 Ellis Park 1st #3 K.C.'s Boy----------------- 3-1 3rd Fave
2:00 Arlington 1st #6 Crittenden---------------- 5-1 3rd Fave
3:55 Arlington 5th #4 Quest For Truth--------- 7/5 --Favorite Note: among those with a chance to win here, the 6 & 2 could provide some kind of price.....
5:20 Saratoga 9th #1 Storm Flag Flying------- 3-1 3rd Fave
5:26 Arlington 8th #3 Smoke Smoke Smoke-- 5/2 2nd Fave
5:32 Del Mar-- 2nd #4 Resplendency----------- 6-1 5th Fave<g>
5:40 Calder--11th #1 Bailey's Reprized-------- 3-1 2nd Fave
8:35 Del Mar-- 8th #2 During--------------------- 5-1 2nd Fave

This is my workbook for today, which i'm posting kinda late...

The one big disadvantage is that E-Horse lags in settling payoffs-- so in order to parlay one must have the funds on hand for the whole parlay progression sometimes.

Rules: bet one unit in parlays of 4. Removing one race from a progression(such as because the potential payoff's not as high as we'd hoped for), doesn't just mean the lost profit from that race-- but worse: that amount compounded 2/3 times......

Good luck.....

charleslanger
08-01-2004, 11:24 PM
First time i post something new the results are less than admirable......

$100 bet-- Approximate payoffs / losses in exact order of original post:

$2.40
2.70
2.35-- audibled to #8 King Of The Valley 5-1, original choice double-digit odds
Loss-- bet was up to $192(change rounded up), a head less would've meant $368-- start all over with 100, and even if that was lost in worst-case scenario: last bet of following progression, $168 profit would've remained. Also, the type of selection process used for this particular selection is risky: this wasn't a can't win choice, but rather-- 4 or 5(before scratches) had a similar chance of winning, so why not try to make good money vs the underlaid favorite.

another $100:

$2.65
2.75
Loss

another $100:

audibled to #5 at 3/5, wasn't even getting $2.20 on original-- rest of card cancelled(that one and the last race) due to severe thunder/lightning & heavy rain....
2.45
In spite of the losses, I'd have @ broken even if i could've cashed on the cancelled Calder race.....

Net for day: -$176.60

And this is not really the best way to do this-- these were left-over critters from handicapping for the contests( & i tried to meld them into an example of betting an entire card in this manner)-- the best way is to stick with one track from start to finish, and as each race comes up, from among the can't wins, take the one with lowest odds(most favorable to lay). After 4 races you should have at a minimum double the stake, much more usually-- and start over the progression again. Even better is to use two or three tracks running simultaneously-- as for safety's sake the parlay progression per track can be cut down a notch-- but the actual total progression will be larger, multiplied by the more tracks. One such progression yields usually several times the base bet unit, then start over again... Even if you have a day like in this example, with mistakes & unforeseen eventualities-- you'll still come out ahead for the day.

The main requisites are getting a feel for two or three such simultaneous tracks-- having a trememdous bankroll to continue the parlays from one's own pocket: postings / settlements aren't as timely as with 'normal' wagering......

BTW, except for attaching a bet summary from the online bettaker, this not something that really lends itself to posting in advance-- without knowing the odds that will guide the decision: one can often land on a different choice.

And this is not to be confused with a show/place parlay method mentioned elsewhere...

Ok, wake up now!!!! End of post, wake up!!!!;)
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