whales?

[bugboy]

someone please tell me what is a "whale" in horse racing?
friend says its a person or group that bets hundereds on certain races where they feel is a "lock" no matter what the odds are. it they can double their wager, that's a bet.

thanks in advance.....frank

[castaway01]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=130724&highlight=whales

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124982&highlight=whales

[theiman]

Perhaps Chuck Kaiton could best describe a Whale(r). :lol:

[green80]

more of a myth than a reality, however there are a few syndicates around. It's only a bad when they are on the same horse that you are on.

[bugboy]

thanks castaway for those links..
this will give me plenty of reading tonight.

[Dave Schwartz]

more of a myth than a reality, however there are a few syndicates around. It's only a bad when they are on the same horse that you are on.


The whales are not "syndicates."

"Syndicate" implies a bunch of guys got together and pooled resources. Not true.

They are typically single owner corporations (although there may be partners who hold minor position), with a lot of employees. (The smallest is reputed to have 45 employees and the largest 175.)

There are 6 that I am aware of that wager upwards of $100m each.

Probably another 50-75 that wager between $25m and $100m, but that is shear guesswork on my part.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The whales are not "syndicates."

"Syndicate" implies a bunch of guys got together and pooled resources. Not true.

They are typically single owner corporations (although there may be partners who hold minor position), with a lot of employees. (The smallest is reputed to have 45 employees and the largest 175.)

There are 6 that I am aware of that wager upwards of $100m each.

Probably another 50-75 that wager between $25m and $100m, but that is shear guesswork on my part.

What do their wagering tickets look like...?

[thaskalos]

What do their wagering tickets look like...?

They look like ours...but they have more numbers printed on them.

[VigorsTheGrey]

They look like ours...but they have more numbers printed on them.

No, Thask...it is a simple question with a very complex answer...one could reply " How the hell do I know, I am not a Whale..."

I'm sure there is method in their madness...unlike mine..

What I am asking in a veiled fashion, is the nature of their betting structures and methods for anyone who might know something about those...

Are they win bettors...vertical or horizontal players...rebate junkies or arbitrage mongers...is pool scooping their primary tactic, etc...

[ultracapper]

Churn would be their game. If Dave's numbers are reliable, we're talking about 25-50% of annual handle in North America.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Churn would be their game. If Dave's numbers are reliable, we're talking about 25-50% of annual handle in North America.

How does churn create profit...unless is relies on a small rebate positive that overcomes take and a miniscule ROI...?

[ultracapper]

How does churn create profit...unless is relies on a small rebate positive that overcomes take and a miniscule ROI...?

1.01 on $10M bet is a $100K profit. Change small to large in your rebate comment.

[VigorsTheGrey]

1.01 on $10M bet is a $100K profit. Change small to large in your rebate comment.

How does a 10 Million bet get through the windows...?

What is the nature of the transactions taking place...ADW's involved...How does the IRS get involved in these large transactions....? Are these cash transactions....Is there mandatory reporting over certain limits say $10,000 like at the banks...? How is money laundering monitored...?

[ultracapper]

$200 into 50,000 different pools/combinations, or a similar ratio. Takes time, and lots of assistance, to bet $10M.

[VigorsTheGrey]

$200 into 50,000 different pools/combinations, or a similar ratio. Takes time, and lots of assistance, to bet $10M.

The devil is in the details of how this is really accomplished...
What are the specific methods, goals...? You would need a full time accountant and tax person on your employee list...$200 into 50,000 different pools...? Why do this...? for what reason...?

[acorn54]

my two cents. what is fact is that people like peter benter, have assistants to place the bets.

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Gambling-The-Hundred-and-Fifty-Million-Dollar-Man_8366

allan woods (deceased) article above, will elaborate on the inner sanctum of the "whale operation".

[Dave Schwartz]

Churn would be their game. If Dave's numbers are reliable, we're talking about 25-50% of annual handle in North America.


About $1 out of every $7 wagered is whale money.

Rules of thumb about tickets & wagering:
80-85% of all tracks (yes, they play PrM).
80-85% of all races at those tracks.
80-85% of all the pools in those races.

Typically multi-horse win bets, not so many place/show bets.

My estimates say that 17% of all exotic combinations are bet for some amount. Obviously, lots of variance here.

Track by track: Higher rebates draw more money. Thus a greater percentage of the pool at MNR or CT will be whale money than NYRA.

Obviously, the track's handle size has a huge impact on the bet size.

The greater the whale percentage (of the pool), the greater the percentage of money that shows up on the tote after the gate opens. My current estimates put this at a high-rebate track at around 74%, while at a low-rebate track it would be around 56-62%.

Last stat but it is a big one:

If you ask the question, "Did the winner's odds go up, go down, or stay the same from the first 0-minute odds flash you get numbers like these:"

1. Near-Zero Rebate Tracks (normal)
38% up, 20% same, 42% down

2. High Rebate Track:
17% up, 12% same, 71% down

(Note that this one is very fragile from track to track.)


STRATEGIES FOR THE BETTOR
===================
1. When to bet.
The first min=0 flash is plenty late enough, except for the post time abusers like CT. Must watch the horses get close to the gate then take next flash.


2. Which Tracks.
As a general rule, you are better off playing at a LOW-REBATE track because you will be playing against a lower pool pct of VERY SMART MONEY.


3. Do not use any kind of deep, regression analysis approach because that is what the whales do and you will wind up on many of the same horses. In the long run, they will crush you.


4. Whales (basically) play a "global system" with "local sub-systems." That is, they use approaches that are pretty much a single system, but have factors based upon local data such as post-position and pace analysis.

Thus, it would be a good idea to play something that is not in their wheelhouse. For example, some type of pace analysis that has a model customized for today's race.

Do not be so naive to think that using a "recent pace model" is going to do that. It won't. You will need something more creative.


5. Spot play systems can be good - if you can make them work.


6. Surprisingly, form analysis is relatively weak. If you are doing a good job with form, you will find that your A+ horses will either be bet down or outclassed at a high price.



I've got more of this stuff, but it is late.

I think this is such a good topic that I'll do a short podcast about it next week.


Feel free to ask questions.


Best to all,
Dave Schwartz

[Poindexter]

About $1 out of every $7 wagered is whale money.

Rules of thumb about tickets & wagering:
80-85% of all tracks (yes, they play PrM).
80-85% of all races at those tracks.
80-85% of all the pools in those races.

Typically multi-horse win bets, not so many place/show bets.

My estimates say that 17% of all exotic combinations are bet for some amount. Obviously, lots of variance here.

Track by track: Higher rebates draw more money. Thus a greater percentage of the pool at MNR or CT will be whale money than NYRA.

Obviously, the track's handle size has a huge impact on the bet size.

The greater the whale percentage (of the pool), the greater the percentage of money that shows up on the tote after the gate opens. My current estimates put this at a high-rebate track at around 74%, while at a low-rebate track it would be around 56-62%.

Last stat but it is a big one:

If you ask the question, "Did the winner's odds go up, go down, or stay the same from the first 0-minute odds flash you get numbers like these:"

1. Near-Zero Rebate Tracks (normal)
38% up, 20% same, 42% down

2. High Rebate Track:
17% up, 12% same, 71% down

(Note that this one is very fragile from track to track.)


STRATEGIES FOR THE BETTOR
===================
1. When to bet.
The first min=0 flash is plenty late enough, except for the post time abusers like CT. Must watch the horses get close to the gate then take next flash.


2. Which Tracks.
As a general rule, you are better off playing at a LOW-REBATE track because you will be playing against a lower pool pct of VERY SMART MONEY.


3. Do not use any kind of deep, regression analysis approach because that is what the whales do and you will wind up on many of the same horses. In the long run, they will crush you.


4. Whales (basically) play a "global system" with "local sub-systems." That is, they use approaches that are pretty much a single system, but have factors based upon local data such as post-position and pace analysis.

Thus, it would be a good idea to play something that is not in their wheelhouse. For example, some type of pace analysis that has a model customized for today's race.

Do not be so naive to think that using a "recent pace model" is going to do that. It won't. You will need something more creative.


5. Spot play systems can be good - if you can make them work.


6. Surprisingly, form analysis is relatively weak. If you are doing a good job with form, you will find that your A+ horses will either be bet down or outclassed at a high price.



I've got more of this stuff, but it is late.

I think this is such a good topic that I'll do a short podcast about it next week.


Feel free to ask questions.


Best to all,
Dave Schwartz



:ThmbUp:

Can you post a list of the high rebate tracks they frequent and the low rebate tracks that they are not as involved with.

Also #6 make no sense to me. Did you word it wrong or am I missing something.

[P Matties Jr]

The devil is in the details of how this is really accomplished...
What are the specific methods, goals...? You would need a full time accountant and tax person on your employee list...$200 into 50,000 different pools...? Why do this...? for what reason...?

The majority of the whales discussed here are approved by the tracks and the tote companies. They have their own code, like a track or OTB would, for settlement. They have direct access to the tote, so they can calculate right up to the second and they batch bet right before the race closes. I believe it's 100 bets a second but that could have changed. Some of them have an employee that scans for a mistake bet, because you can have a situation like that $20,000 bet at Buffalo Raceway, but it happens very rarely. Their bets are a series of hedges to lose at a percentage less than their rebate. For example, if you bet 20Million with 10% percent rebate, you obviously get 2 million back. So, if you lose 1 million through the windows, you actually make 1 million, but these guys are looking for way less percentages than that. Peanuts, just as long as it's profit. Most of have them have no heart. If they stop winning for a day or two, even after skimming for years, they pull the plug and regroup, but it's never far off that they can't get it working again. They actually have seemed to get better as time has progressed. Money reinvested and technology have likely played a big part in that.

They are in ALL the pools but more so in the verticals and the WPS, than the horizontals. The lesser the denomination for the minimum, the more they can manipulate to have a bigger edge. With only a few exceptions who work hard to keep them out, they are in EVERY race at EVERY track, thoroughbred, harness and greyhound. There's almost no opinion involved, it's almost all money value corrections. They could have every horse open in a race, and still win, if the pools are bet wrong. Their best situations are when they can be completely against a horse or two.

Just like Pace Advantage said, there is a lower tier than those big groups that operate similarly but not as direct. These models are usually slightly better at handicapping and less like the newer wall street hedges or the old school Benter types, but not all of them.

Since the beginning of rebates, tracks have been eating away at the percentages of rebates for the regular players. If it wasn't for these groups, rebates would be almost non existent. The breakdowns have been laid out to the corporations. It's like clockwork. Everybody gets their cut, similar to a slot machine. With that said, the regular whales and every day players have been hit over and over again, while these groups are still operating at the very high end rebates. If the tracks or states cut them, they understand the "whales" go out of business, and the handle drops, immediately.

This is the lower takeout argument in a nutshell. Rebates are the ONLY way to lower the takeout for the regular player, but this is what exists when you do it.

[ultracapper]

Hopefully Dave will post in this thread when he has scheduled the podcast. It will be very educational for me.

[NorCalGreg]

my two cents. what is fact is that people like peter benter, have assistants to place the bets.

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Gambling-The-Hundred-and-Fifty-Million-Dollar-Man_8366

allan woods (deceased) article above, will elaborate on the inner sanctum of the "whale operation".

Very interesting article--thanks for posting :ThmbUp:

[castaway01]

The devil is in the details of how this is really accomplished...
What are the specific methods, goals...? You would need a full time accountant and tax person on your employee list...$200 into 50,000 different pools...? Why do this...? for what reason...?

The goal is to make a profit after rebates. They do it because they make a profit after rebates. Dave and Paul break it down in great detail, and the various links provided do as well.

[castaway01]

:ThmbUp:

Can you post a list of the high rebate tracks they frequent and the low rebate tracks that they are not as involved with.

Also #6 make no sense to me. Did you word it wrong or am I missing something.

Pretty sure Dave is saying that their top skills are not in handicapping but in taking advantage of pool inefficiencies to grind out a profit through wager structuring.

[DeltaLover]

Almost no factual data exist about "whales", so I perceive them more like a myth rather than reality.

I am not saying that in horse racing big bettors do not exist. They do exist as in other other kind of gambling. Yes, they exists and like any other gambler they finally end up losing heavily. What I do not believe is that they posses some type of a betting model (like for example the naive Benter's paper about multinomial logit) that allows them to beat the game in a consistent basis.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The majority of the whales discussed here are approved by the tracks and the tote companies. They have their own code, like a track or OTB would, for settlement. They have direct access to the tote, so they can calculate right up to the second and they batch bet right before the race closes. I believe it's 100 bets a second but that could have changed. Some of them have an employee that scans for a mistake bet, because you can have a situation like that $20,000 bet at Buffalo Raceway, but it happens very rarely. Their bets are a series of hedges to lose at a percentage less than their rebate. For example, if you bet 20Million with 10% percent rebate, you obviously get 2 million back. So, if you lose 1 million through the windows, you actually make 1 million, but these guys are looking for way less percentages than that. Peanuts, just as long as it's profit. Most of have them have no heart. If they stop winning for a day or two, even after skimming for years, they pull the plug and regroup, but it's never far off that they can't get it working again. They actually have seemed to get better as time has progressed. Money reinvested and technology have likely played a big part in that.

They are in ALL the pools but more so in the verticals and the WPS, than the horizontals. The lesser the denomination for the minimum, the more they can manipulate to have a bigger edge. With only a few exceptions who work hard to keep them out, they are in EVERY race at EVERY track, thoroughbred, harness and greyhound. There's almost no opinion involved, it's almost all money value corrections. They could have every horse open in a race, and still win, if the pools are bet wrong. Their best situations are when they can be completely against a horse or two.

Just like Pace Advantage said, there is a lower tier than those big groups that operate similarly but not as direct. These models are usually slightly better at handicapping and less like the newer wall street hedges or the old school Benter types, but not all of them.

Since the beginning of rebates, tracks have been eating away at the percentages of rebates for the regular players. If it wasn't for these groups, rebates would be almost non existent. The breakdowns have been laid out to the corporations. It's like clockwork. Everybody gets their cut, similar to a slot machine. With that said, the regular whales and every day players have been hit over and over again, while these groups are still operating at the very high end rebates. If the tracks or states cut them, they understand the "whales" go out of business, and the handle drops, immediately.

This is the lower takeout argument in a nutshell. Rebates are the ONLY way to lower the takeout for the regular player, but this is what exists when you do it.

There is something very fishy in all of this....
First, you are say that these whales are approved by the track and tote companies, have direct access to totes, and wager electronically (basically cashless until some future time when things are settled)...That the whales are in the vast majority of pools regularly and are taking advantage of pool wagering "imbalances" to legally skim money with little or no risk, presumably through some sort of computerized, light speed operation TIED INTO the totes and tracks (who accommodate the whales by giving them rebates, even though the skim is working to drain money from them...what the tracks are doing is giving the whales a lower take-out rate through rebates to push money through the windows, so the track can get its take-out, and paying whales a service fee to do this...all on the backs of the regular bettors....if this is true...does anybody wonder anymore what is wrong with racing...? And then the whales must pay taxes on this because I'm hopeful that the IRS considers this a legit business...?

[lamboguy]

The majority of the whales discussed here are approved by the tracks and the tote companies. They have their own code, like a track or OTB would, for settlement. They have direct access to the tote, so they can calculate right up to the second and they batch bet right before the race closes. I believe it's 100 bets a second but that could have changed. Some of them have an employee that scans for a mistake bet, because you can have a situation like that $20,000 bet at Buffalo Raceway, but it happens very rarely. Their bets are a series of hedges to lose at a percentage less than their rebate. For example, if you bet 20Million with 10% percent rebate, you obviously get 2 million back. So, if you lose 1 million through the windows, you actually make 1 million, but these guys are looking for way less percentages than that. Peanuts, just as long as it's profit. Most of have them have no heart. If they stop winning for a day or two, even after skimming for years, they pull the plug and regroup, but it's never far off that they can't get it working again. They actually have seemed to get better as time has progressed. Money reinvested and technology have likely played a big part in that.

They are in ALL the pools but more so in the verticals and the WPS, than the horizontals. The lesser the denomination for the minimum, the more they can manipulate to have a bigger edge. With only a few exceptions who work hard to keep them out, they are in EVERY race at EVERY track, thoroughbred, harness and greyhound. There's almost no opinion involved, it's almost all money value corrections. They could have every horse open in a race, and still win, if the pools are bet wrong. Their best situations are when they can be completely against a horse or two.

Just like Pace Advantage said, there is a lower tier than those big groups that operate similarly but not as direct. These models are usually slightly better at handicapping and less like the newer wall street hedges or the old school Benter types, but not all of them.

Since the beginning of rebates, tracks have been eating away at the percentages of rebates for the regular players. If it wasn't for these groups, rebates would be almost non existent. The breakdowns have been laid out to the corporations. It's like clockwork. Everybody gets their cut, similar to a slot machine. With that said, the regular whales and every day players have been hit over and over again, while these groups are still operating at the very high end rebates. If the tracks or states cut them, they understand the "whales" go out of business, and the handle drops, immediately.

This is the lower takeout argument in a nutshell. Rebates are the ONLY way to lower the takeout for the regular player, but this is what exists when you do it.i have no problem with these computer players getting a point or two better rebate than myself, i have no problem with them getting back some of their breakage. my problem is the access they have into the pools that i can't get if i stood on my head. if everyone had that very same access the computer boys would be out of business no matter what their rebate is.

[AlsoEligible]

And then the whales must pay taxes on this because I'm hopeful that the IRS considers this a legit business...?

Yeah, for the couple of them that are based in the US, sure. The vast majority are off-shore players (or at least under the umbrella of an off-shore "corporation"), so no IRS involvement.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are they win bettors...vertical or horizontal players...rebate junkies or arbitrage mongers...is pool scooping their primary tactic, etc...They are on anything and everything in which they believe they are getting a positive expectation wager.

[PaceAdvantage]

i have no problem with these computer players getting a point or two better rebate than myself, i have no problem with them getting back some of their breakage. my problem is the access they have into the pools that i can't get if i stood on my head. if everyone had that very same access the computer boys would be out of business no matter what their rebate is.Except 99% of the people who, if given access to the pools, would have no clue what to do with it.

And what access to you actually think they get? They don't get some special private line that updates odds for them more quickly then you see on the tote board. You realize that, right? Their data gets updated at the same rate as yours or mine at the ADW....simply because there IS NO DATA to update until the money actually moves into the pools, and that relies on the rate at which all the simulcasting centers transmit their data into the main pool. There IS NO WAY to get "more up-to-date" data because it all depends on when and how often the money moves from around the world into the combined pool, which is then displayed on everyone's screen.

Or do you think they get some super-secret Trifecta data that lets them see all the combos and payouts? No...they don't.

What they get is like what the wall street guys get who are allowed to park their servers closer to the exchange...they get faster access...but they are getting the same data you or I get through our ADWs...there is no "secret data" that they are getting.

You could scrape the same data they get off the ADW.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure you will.

[AndyC]

Yeah, for the couple of them that are based in the US, sure. The vast majority are off-shore players (or at least under the umbrella of an off-shore "corporation"), so no IRS involvement.

Are you saying that most whales are not US citizens and that they don't live in the US? A US citizen regardless of where he/she places the bets is subject to US tax on winnings. Using an off-shore corporation as an umbrella would not change their tax situation.

[Magister Ludi]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure you will.

You are correct.

[Nitro]

Almost no factual data exist about "whales", so I perceive them more like a myth rather than reality.

I am not saying that in horse racing big bettors do not exist. They do exist as in other other kind of gambling. Yes, they exists and like any other gambler they finally end up losing heavily. What I do not believe is that they posses some type of a betting model (like for example the naive Benter's paper about multinomial logit) that allows them to beat the game in a consistent basis.
I totally agree!

Look, this whole “Whale” thing is really getting blown out of proportion. My friends and I consistently monitor the tote board activities for most of the popular tracks here in the States. We just don’t see the type of betting activities being described here. Sure, occasionally you’ll see pool aberrations at the larger tracks with the bigger betting pools. (When this occurs, the larger pools tend to absorb these anomalies much better so as not to disclose the obvious). Of course, you’ll also see that occasional bridge-jumper, but again these incidents are not the norm.

While all this is true for the Stateside betting, it’s not the case in Hong Kong where literally millions of dollars are being bet on individual races. The available tote activities for the Win/Place and Quinella pools can very often display unique changes due to very large bets even when the pools are extremely large. Can you imagine the typical pool sizes like those shown below? Now think about how much money it might take to move the odds on an entry in the Win pool from 15/1 to 10/1. Yes, I believe there are some “Whales” swimming in the pools, but they’re just not as prevalent here in the States.

Betting on a typical day of racing at Hong Kong:
……….....Individual Race Handle: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - ……...…….$21,484,217
Race #2 - ……...…….$24,703,539
Race #3 - ……...…….$ 9,866,677
Race #4 - ………...….$24,946,392
Race #5 - ………...….$31,926,884
Race #6 - ………...….$31,040,686
Race #7 - ………...….$31,838,445
Race #8 - ………...….$40,777,101
Race #9 -.………...….$36,043,587
Race #10-…….….....$38,129,799

Total Handle All Races……..$290,757,331

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by P Matties Jr http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/buttons/green/viewpost.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2164920#post2164920)
They could have every horse open in a race, and still win, if the pools are bet wrong. Their best situations are when they can be completely against a horse or two.THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.

[EasyGoer89]

There is something very fishy in all of this....
First, you are say that these whales are approved by the track and tote companies, have direct access to totes, and wager electronically (basically cashless until some future time when things are settled)...That the whales are in the vast majority of pools regularly and are taking advantage of pool wagering "imbalances" to legally skim money with little or no risk, presumably through some sort of computerized, light speed operation TIED INTO the totes and tracks (who accommodate the whales by giving them rebates, even though the skim is working to drain money from them...what the tracks are doing is giving the whales a lower take-out rate through rebates to push money through the windows, so the track can get its take-out, and paying whales a service fee to do this...all on the backs of the regular bettors....if this is true...does anybody wonder anymore what is wrong with racing...? And then the whales must pay taxes on this because I'm hopeful that the IRS considers this a legit business...?

I don't think Paul suggested this is done 'off the backs' of the regular players. Why would you think this has anything to do w regular players? If 100k is bet in a win pool at Track A and the published take is 15 pct, 85000 goes back to the players. If you bet that race, part of the 85 goes to you if you win. I'm not sure why 'regular players' would think something is 'coming off their back'. What are you suggesting?

[EasyGoer89]

THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.

It's not that sophisticated if large bets are coming in on multiple horses and many different combos. If you and a buddy went to simo and your buddy bet every race at every track into every pool, would you think that was sophisticated?

[acorn54]

THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races.

this is exactly why i don't put much money through the windows anymore. i don't know about others here but i began to record EVERY wager i made starting in november of 2004. i can tell you that my win % has stayed the same but the average mutuel has fallen off. also the fields in general have gotten shorter and the mutuel payoffs in general have gotten smaller, which means dime breakage compounds the diminishing profit potential.

i put almost all of my money for gambling or what ever you want to call it, in the index funds. the past year i have gotten over 20% roi. with no time invested in growing my money at that rate. to me horse race gambling has become, working hard for too little return with the time and effort invested. its just for recreation for me. i think my story is a very common one.

[ReplayRandall]

It's not that sophisticated if large bets are coming in on multiple horses and many different combos. If you and a buddy went to simo and your buddy bet every race at every track into every pool, would you think that was sophisticated?
You've misread my post, as it was a subtle way of saying that nefarious events happen when HUGE sophisticated money is involved....

[EasyGoer89]

You've misread my post, as it was a subtle way of saying that nefarious events happen when HUGE sophisticated money is involved....

Wouldn't be the first time I misread. :D

[lamboguy]

Except 99% of the people who, if given access to the pools, would have no clue what to do with it.

And what access to you actually think they get? They don't get some special private line that updates odds for them more quickly then you see on the tote board. You realize that, right? Their data gets updated at the same rate as yours or mine at the ADW....simply because there IS NO DATA to update until the money actually moves into the pools, and that relies on the rate at which all the simulcasting centers transmit their data into the main pool. There IS NO WAY to get "more up-to-date" data because it all depends on when and how often the money moves from around the world into the combined pool, which is then displayed on everyone's screen.

Or do you think they get some super-secret Trifecta data that lets them see all the combos and payouts? No...they don't.

What they get is like what the wall street guys get who are allowed to park their servers closer to the exchange...they get faster access...but they are getting the same data you or I get through our ADWs...there is no "secret data" that they are getting.

You could scrape the same data they get off the ADW.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure you will.let me give you an example: a horse at NYRA is showing 1/5 on the board or on your screen at home. that payoffs for that horse can be anything between $2.40-$2.70. one of these computer outfits can manipulate the pool so that their horse will pay $2.70 every time. since they have the apparatus to see the last possible odds and send in their bets real fast they can either add or cancel their bets to insure they get paid $2.70 for thousands of dollars.

give me that edge and i will know what to do with it with the rebate.

[Poindexter]

this is exactly why i don't put much money through the windows anymore. i don't know about others here but i began to record EVERY wager i made starting in november of 2004. i can tell you that my win % has stayed the same but the average mutuel has fallen off. also the fields in general have gotten shorter and the mutuel payoffs in general have gotten smaller, which means dime breakage compounds the diminishing profit potential.

i put almost all of my money for gambling or what ever you want to call it, in the index funds. the past year i have gotten over 20% roi. with no time invested in growing my money at that rate. to me horse race gambling has become, working hard for too little return with the time and effort invested. its just for recreation for me. i think my story is a very common one.

I think you are absolutely right. While tracks have become dependent on big money, it really leads to a perception that this game is not honest.

Great example. I was live on derby day in the late pick 5 to the 1-1 favorite in the last race(was paying about $3800 if I recall correctly), trained by Casse. Who wins, a first time starter by Casse who was morning line 8-1 bet down to 3-1 from the opening flash (closed at 7-2). Meanwhile the favorite finishes 4th. Suspicious crap leads to distrust of the sport. I've seen this movie a few times, so it is just another day in the office to me, but to the consumer, it looks BAD.

So when whales are pounding horses late (71% at high rebate tracks see the winner go down in price from the 0 min to post mark-according to Dave Schwartz), what kind of perception does that give people? When my horse wins he get pounded late and when he goes up in price he finishes up the track. Gives everybody the appearance that it is an insiders game. Once the consumer reaches that conclusion, it is game over, they will likely not be a customer ever.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I don't think Paul suggested this is done 'off the backs' of the regular players. Why would you think this has anything to do w regular players? If 100k is bet in a win pool at Track A and the published take is 15 pct, 85000 goes back to the players. If you bet that race, part of the 85 goes to you if you win. I'm not sure why 'regular players' would think something is 'coming off their back'. What are you suggesting?

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...

[Dave Schwartz]

Lots of great questions after my post.

I will record a podcast this week and it will go up next week. It will not be long - I am trying to keep the new ones to about 15 minutes.

Will post a link here when it is available.

[PaceAdvantage]

let me give you an example: a horse at NYRA is showing 1/5 on the board or on your screen at home. that payoffs for that horse can be anything between $2.40-$2.70. one of these computer outfits can manipulate the pool so that their horse will pay $2.70 every time. since they have the apparatus to see the last possible odds and send in their bets real fast they can either add or cancel their bets to insure they get paid $2.70 for thousands of dollars.

give me that edge and i will know what to do with it with the rebate.Intuitively, what you write above doesn't make a lot of sense to me (how this would be such a great advantage).

But I'll let others (including you) explain it to me...why would this be such a big edge...knowing whether a 1/5 shot is paying 2.40-2.70?

[PaceAdvantage]

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...it's not gaming the system. It's being smarter than you.

Why shouldn't brains and innovation be rewarded? Why should it be penalized?

Plenty of people who SPEND MORE in all sorts of endeavors GET BETTER DEALS.

If you were willing to wager millions, I'm sure you could get the same setup. But you're not, so you don't.

Just like if you're willing to buy in bulk, you get better prices at most all vendors.

If you trade more at a brokerage firm, you can get lower commissions. And if you trade a ton, you can get your computer moved close to the exchange for the ability to see prices nanoseconds faster than the average schmo sitting at home on E-trade.

There is no difference...and why should there be? Why shouldn't people willing to put MILLIONS into the pools annually get a better deal than the $2 bettor?

[AltonKelsey]

imo almost everything said here and about whales is wrong.

the blind leading the blind.

i guarantee that if any of you had the same 'access' the whales do, you wouldn't make 10 cents more than you do now.

i see what they bet and how they bet. nothing magical about it. in fact, they throw a lot of money away on UNDERLAYS.

large rebates are another matter entirely.

[PaceAdvantage]

imo almost everything said here and about whales is wrong.

the blind leading the blind.Calling YOUR bluff here. If you were so certain, you wouldn't have written IMO :lol:

[lamboguy]

Intuitively, what you write above doesn't make a lot of sense to me (how this would be such a great advantage).

But I'll let others (including you) explain it to me...why would this be such a big edge...knowing whether a 1/5 shot is paying 2.40-2.70?you should know better than anyone since you are betting on value. you make your bets ahead of time based on a certain price for arguments sake lets call it 3-1. the race goes off and the horse drops to 2-1. you no longer have value. a computer guy that has a consul directly hooked up to the tote can guarantee he gets the 3-1 every single time, you simply can't do that.

there are plenty of other things that they can do that you can't, but i don't want to get into that now. what i can tell you is i have friends that are general managers at race tracks that think this direct tote is very unfair to a regular everyday bettor like us.

[PaceAdvantage]

a computer guy that has a consul directly hooked up to the tote can guarantee he gets the 3-1 every single time, you simply can't do that.No he can't.

[AltonKelsey]

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...

If you think there's a natural arbitrage with a near 20% takeout, you're mistaken. No arb unless you are TOSSING horses, and that requires an opinion, and that requires you have to be right MOST of the time.

[AltonKelsey]

Calling YOUR bluff here. If you were so certain, you wouldn't have written IMO :lol:


touche, but I was simply being overly courteous. my error. :D

[EasyGoer89]

Arbitraging all the entries and all the pools in nano-seconds with computers and executing vast numbers of individual wager combinations in seconds is well beyond the capability of regular players...it is NOT an edge...it is a form of "gaming the System" that is for some reason permitted and condoned by the track themselves...like the poster says above "everybody gets their cut" so it is allowed to continue..but where do the $'s of these skims and cuts come from, ultimately...? The Public and regular bettors...

The 'cut' doesn't come from you because many huge whales actually LOSE. They're essentially betting 'bad' on purpose to increase handle, but their bad betting pads the pools for the good gamblers.

Also, anyone can get access if they want, money talks, if you put up a message here or anywhere that said 'I bet 10 mil a year and have no current ADW, contact me' someone would contact you.

If you don't bet millions than why would you be against the million dollar and up bettor getting a better deal? I mean, you'd want that deal if you were a 10 mil guy, right?

[thaskalos]

The informed opinion seems to be that these "Whales" swim at every track and every mutuel pool...trying to snuff out whatever value the tote board has to offer. And yet...I was playing Thistledown's 2nd race today, where the outcome was 1-6...in a 7-horse field. The 1-horse went off at odds of 5-2...and the 6 went off at odds of 5-1. The 1-6 exacta paid $56.60 for $2...and it would have paid the exact same price if the race outcome was REVERSED. How could these sophisticated betting outfits allow this 1-6 exacta combination to pay the outrageous price that it did? Did several "Whales" get their SIGNALS crossed in this race?

[lamboguy]

No he can't.that's where you have a misunderstanding. the guy with the consul has the last view of the pool, you don't. cancelling bets in this game is as much a part of betting as placing bets now. he can cancel a $500 or $600 bet and know he's getting 3-1 for whatever he has left in the pool. you place your bet at 3-1 before the race and often times see the odds change on the first flash after the break to something lower and you now don't have value.

[PaceAdvantage]

the guy with the consul has the last view of the pool, you don't.He may or he may not. And that "last view" is NOT what is going to be there after the race goes off. It may change...AGAIN...

One of us is missing something.

Once the gates open, betting stops (or it's supposed to)....BUT...there is a lot of money unaccounted for in the pools still...and that "last view" the "whale" got before the gates opened (which may or MAY NOT be different than my last view...we're talking a matter of seconds here), is not the FINAL TOTAL of all the money still waiting to come into the pools.

So really, how big of an advantage does the "last view," which isn't actually the LAST VIEW, bring to the whale?

[AltonKelsey]

Even if , in theory, there could be all this last view cancelling going on, there is ZERO evidence that it is.

At a large track , you would have to cancel thousands, and eventually it would be noticed.

[lamboguy]

He may or he may not. And that "last view" is NOT what is going to be there after the race goes off. It may change...AGAIN...

One of us is missing something.

Once the gates open, betting stops (or it's supposed to)....BUT...there is a lot of money unaccounted for in the pools still...and that "last view" the "whale" got before the gates opened (which may or MAY NOT be different than my last view...we're talking a matter of seconds here), is not the FINAL TOTAL of all the money still waiting to come into the pools.

So really, how big of an advantage does the "last view," which isn't actually the LAST VIEW, bring to the whale?
i am not going to even discuss any possible after the bell action. but anything that comes in late for any reason other than an after the bell bet should come out in the wash in the long run.

[lamboguy]

further more on this subject. the takeout in this game is roughly 7%-9% plus 5% breakage. the guys that sit behind consuls and bet these things have to overcome that chop. they all claim they don't handicap. they all claim they make money at this and probably do. they have to make up the percentages against them somehow. and that somehow is by getting a big edge with their direct access.

on a caveat, there are some computer players that do not play with direct access and i am not talking about those guys. their might be a handful of guys that i am referring to that have this big edge as far as i know, and they aren't letting any new faces into the party.

[Nitro]

THIS is THE problem with these types of operations involved in the pools. Make no mistake, these races are the ones that leave you scratching your head because of convoluted pace scenarios and questionable rides by jocks on specific well meant horses......The dark side of racing, when too much sophisticated money has access/influence to manipulate betting pools, as well as outcomes in specific races by other means.
When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.

Of course, Outsiders who aren’t privy to a horse’s immediate condition and temperament will always claim foul when some big favorite fails miserably, or some long-shot lights up the tote board. They have no idea why a horse is even entered in the race! Is it trying to actually Win? Is it a workout for a future event? Is it an experiment at a new distance or racing surface, or with a change in equipment?

The handicapper is literally handicapped because in spite of all the information available there are still some important unknowns that are generally taken for granted. Those in the know on the other hand may have the current information necessary to take advantage of certain situations and can make their (possibly larger) wager with less foreseeable risk.

[PaceAdvantage]

When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.But all of the above can be overcome, even if you treat horses as machines and only use cold hard numbers in your handicapping. What you say might be true, but it still isn't a barrier to success treating it as such.

[Poindexter]

it's not gaming the system. It's being smarter than you.

Why shouldn't brains and innovation be rewarded? Why should it be penalized?

Plenty of people who SPEND MORE in all sorts of endeavors GET BETTER DEALS.

If you were willing to wager millions, I'm sure you could get the same setup. But you're not, so you don't.

Just like if you're willing to buy in bulk, you get better prices at most all vendors.

If you trade more at a brokerage firm, you can get lower commissions. And if you trade a ton, you can get your computer moved close to the exchange for the ability to see prices nanoseconds faster than the average schmo sitting at home on E-trade.

There is no difference...and why should there be? Why shouldn't people willing to put MILLIONS into the pools annually get a better deal than the $2 bettor?

I personally don't have a problem with bigger betters getting better deals. It is the ramifications of what there better deals do to the public. If the pools were ever growing, I would say, great, survival of the fittest. But that is not what is happening. Perception of after the bell betting and this being an insiders game drive people away from the sport. The masses lose 20, 30 or even 40% of the dollar because the prices on many of their winners are driven aritificially low by whales/sharps driving the prices to below break even, while getting fat rebates. Yes that does mean that some of their horses pay more, but most of those horses lose.............. That is not a model that can work long term. That is why horse racing keeps going nowhere and has nowhere to go.

Let's say you are Joe fan and you lose 30% of every dollar you bet(which I am sure is pretty typical). Every day you come to the races you bet on average $300 and you go twice a week. That is $180 a week average loss, or over $9000 a year. That is a very expensive hobby .Doesn't take very long to realize this party isn't for you.

[acorn54]

thaskalos is the only person mentioning dime breakage, and believe me it is a HUGE chop off of the final payout when your winners are averaging 5/2 or thereabouts. whereas when you collect on a longshot at 13-1 or more it is peanuts.

[whodoyoulike]

About $1 out of every $7 wagered is whale money.

Rules of thumb about tickets & wagering:
80-85% of all tracks (yes, they play PrM).
80-85% of all races at those tracks.
80-85% of all the pools in those races.

Typically multi-horse win bets, not so many place/show bets. ...

3. Do not use any kind of deep, regression analysis approach because that is what the whales do and you will wind up on many of the same horses. In the long run, they will crush you. ...

I've got more of this stuff, but it is late.

I think this is such a good topic that I'll do a short podcast about it next week.


Feel free to ask questions.


Best to all,
Dave Schwartz

I'm curious about this part of point 3.

Why would it be bad to wind up with the same horses?

Unless you're implying they have an algorithm which shows them how much to bet on each horse which no one else will have.

EDIT: Just read P Matties post but respond if different. Thanks.

[Dave Schwartz]

Why would it be bad to wind up with the same horses?

Because there will be no profit for anyone.

I am not saying that you can never bet the same horse. I am saying that if you follow their approach, you will agree with them a lot and when one of you is wrong, it will be you more often than them.

Remember, they are taking big bites out of your cheese. So much so that by the time you get to your "portion" it is smaller.

[AltonKelsey]

Just saw Matties post. Missed it before. I agree with him, so obviously, my comment that everything being said was off base, does not apply.

[whodoyoulike]

Almost no factual data exist about "whales", so I perceive them more like a myth rather than reality.

I am not saying that in horse racing big bettors do not exist. They do exist as in other other kind of gambling. Yes, they exists and like any other gambler they finally end up losing heavily. What I do not believe is that they posses some type of a betting model (like for example the naive Benter's paper about multinomial logit) that allows them to beat the game in a consistent basis.

You make this statement and then reference Benter despite his reputation and there are others i.e., Alan Woods who was a member on here.

Just sorry, I never had a chance to interact with him but, there's also Ernie Dalhman who I've seen post on here but it has been several years ago.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just saw Matties post. Missed it before. I agree with him, so obviously, my comment that everything being said was off base, does not apply.Ah...you had me worried there for a bit...:ThmbUp:

[DeltaLover]

You make this statement and then reference Benter despite his reputation and there are others i.e., Alan Woods who was a member on here.


His reputation or whether he was a member have absolutely nothing to do with my reference to Benter's paper which I repeat that I find very primitive and conceptually useless. If you want to defend it, please go ahead, presenting analyze the underlined theory and also provide a concrete data based application; I will follow up with my objections and why I consider it a completely wrong approach.

[VigorsTheGrey]

But all of the above can be overcome, even if you treat horses as machines and only use cold hard numbers in your handicapping. What you say might be true, but it still isn't a barrier to success treating it as such.

Agree, plus what is in the various race line publications is ALL us outsiders have to deal with on a consistent basis..

It is impossible for us to know the trainers intentions...and bet downs on the board cannot be assumed to be "inside intent"...
Nitro's whole assumption that odds can predict trainer intent is, IMHO, non-testable and non-provable...

There are probably skads of trainers over the years who have lost their shirts betting their "intents" who rarely bet anymore...as a result.

[whodoyoulike]

Even if , in theory, there could be all this last view cancelling going on, there is ZERO evidence that it is.

At a large track , you would have to cancel thousands, and eventually it would be noticed.

We've discussed this late cancelling on here several times but, the tracks still don't seem to notice or are showing they are trying to correct anything.

[EasyGoer89]

that's where you have a misunderstanding. the guy with the consul has the last view of the pool, you don't. cancelling bets in this game is as much a part of betting as placing bets now. he can cancel a $500 or $600 bet and know he's getting 3-1 for whatever he has left in the pool. you place your bet at 3-1 before the race and often times see the odds change on the first flash after the break to something lower and you now don't have value.

PA is right.

if someone places a large bet with 1 second or less to post, that money doesn't instantly show up in the pool, when it does, it's too late for anyone to 'asjust' to that bet.

[whodoyoulike]

When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.

Of course, Outsiders who aren’t privy to a horse’s immediate condition and temperament will always claim foul when some big favorite fails miserably, or some long-shot lights up the tote board. They have no idea why a horse is even entered in the race! Is it trying to actually Win? Is it a workout for a future event? Is it an experiment at a new distance or racing surface, or with a change in equipment?

The handicapper is literally handicapped because in spite of all the information available there are still some important unknowns that are generally taken for granted. Those in the know on the other hand may have the current information necessary to take advantage of certain situations and can make their (possibly larger) wager with less foreseeable risk.

I would think if they are betting hundreds of thousands in a race, they are also gathering their own info to supplement the avail current info.

[Nitro]

When you can finally acknowledge that horses are just flesh and blood and not machines, you’ll be able to rationalize that any so-called pace scenario is something subjectively conjured up based on some past performances. It also assumes that every entry in a race is trying to win and will run as its previously demonstrated.
But all of the above can be overcome, even if you treat horses as machines and only use cold hard numbers in your handicapping. What you say might be true, but it still isn't a barrier to success treating it as such.
Tell that to the majority of long term losers in this game, and those who gripe about seeing things happen in a horse race beyond their appreciation of the realities of the game.

The barrier might seem insignificant and even immaterial to the typical small time player, but it becomes a much riskier game when there’s a lot more at stake.

[EasyGoer89]

Long term losers lose because they aren't good enough at handicapping. None of this has anything to do w whales or how they bet.

[whodoyoulike]

His reputation or whether he was a member have absolutely nothing to do with my reference to Benter's paper which I repeat that I find very primitive and conceptually useless. If you want to defend it, please go ahead, presenting analyze the underlined theory and also provide a concrete data based application; I will follow up with my objections and why I consider it a completely wrong approach.

I think you misread my post.

I was questioning your assertion that whales in horse racing were a myth. Unless your definition of a horse racing whale is different from those being discussed in this thread.

Btw, the members I had referenced were Alan Woods and Ernie Dalhman. I'm unaware if Benter was or is currently a member.

[whodoyoulike]

PA is right.

if someone places a large bet with 1 second or less to post, that money doesn't instantly show up in the pool, when it does, it's too late for anyone to 'asjust' to that bet.

I interpreted Lambo's comment that the whales can and probably do manipulate the odds towards their expectations. How they do it, is way beyond my brain power when it's two minutes to post time.

[lamboguy]

PA is right.

if someone places a large bet with 1 second or less to post, that money doesn't instantly show up in the pool, when it does, it's too late for anyone to 'asjust' to that bet.you are like the blind leading the blind on this one:lol:

[EasyGoer89]

you are like the blind leading the blind on this one:lol:

What I said was correct, you probably meant something different than what you typed

[Nitro]

Agree, plus what is in the various race line publications is ALL us outsiders have to deal with on a consistent basis..

It is impossible for us to know the trainers intentions...and bet downs on the board cannot be assumed to be "inside intent"...
Nitro's whole assumption that odds can predict trainer intent is, IMHO, non-testable and non-provable...

There are probably skads of trainers over the years who have lost their shirts betting their "intents" who rarely bet anymore...as a result.
Where do you come up with this nonsense? I never (ever) suggested that just the “odds” will tell you what’s involved in a complete tote analysis. This couldn’t be further from the truth when in fact the analysis examines ALL of the mutual pools and Exacta (or Quinella) pool simultaneously.

The only thing I use odds for are to determine Value and the playability of a race.

I could really care less if you actually believe that it hasn’t been tested or proven. However, I do know that my mentor’s database contains well over ½ million races of every description and that tote analysis I use is results driven. In fact, if you ever bothered to view the results of my posted selections, you might wonder how I’m able to successfully post so many winning Vertical plays.

Yes, of course just like any other business venture there are winners and losers. If you actually believe that the connections aren’t interested in taking advantage of acquiring some of the money in those betting pools you are GREATLY mistaken.

[AltonKelsey]

Hey Nitro, I never saw you do that for anywhere but HK. Have you ever posted those 'predictions' outside of that venue?

[jimmyb]

So I guess all us plankton should just give up? I say all the power to someone who figures away to EARN a good living at this game. Me ... I'll just keep banging away with my $5's $10's and 20's while enjoying the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.

[Nitro]

Hey Nitro, I never saw you do that for anywhere but HK. Have you ever posted those 'predictions' outside of that venue?Yes, by golly I have. Sorry you missed out.
Here’s just a few recent Selection threads that I been involved in.

Apparently some like Vigors seem to think that these type of selections are posted through some sort of paranormal activity and the resulting productivity is based on pure happenstance.:D

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137990&page=5

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137965&page=7

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137884&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137859&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137845&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137845&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137743&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137725&page=2

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137698

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137633&page=2

[VigorsTheGrey]

Where do you come up with this nonsense? I never (ever) suggested that just the “odds” will tell you what’s involved in a complete tote analysis. This couldn’t be further from the truth when in fact the analysis examines ALL of the mutual pools and Exacta (or Quinella) pool simultaneously.

The only thing I use odds for are to determine Value and the playability of a race.

I could really care less if you actually believe that it hasn’t been tested or proven. However, I do know that my mentor’s database contains well over ½ million races of every description and that tote analysis I use is results driven. In fact, if you ever bothered to view the results of my posted selections, you might wonder how I’m able to successfully post so many winning Vertical plays.

Yes, of course just like any other business venture there are winners and losers. If you actually believe that the connections aren’t interested in taking advantage of acquiring some of the money in those betting pools you are GREATLY mistaken.

"examines ALL of the mutual pools and Exacta (or Quinella) pool simultaneously."
Examines them FOR WHAT...? What are you deriving from your examinations....Value based on what...? Play ability based on what....? What are your criteria...?

[AlsoEligible]

Are you saying that most whales are not US citizens and that they don't live in the US?

Yes.

[Dave Schwartz]

https://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/PA/Whales-Part%201.jpg (https://pacemakestherace.com/whale-talk-1/)

[098poi]

https://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/PA/Whales-Part%201.jpg (https://pacemakestherace.com/whale-talk-1/)

Good stuff Dave!! You whales in training listen up.

[whodoyoulike]

Dave, I clicked on your website link provided in your post above and get an error message.

Couldn't connect to a secure site.

[biggestal99]

Long term losers lose because they aren't good enough at handicapping. None of this has anything to do w whales or how they bet.

Tell that to the small bettors who bet pm on lone f cj,s awesome in the first race at Monmouth went from 4-5 to 1-5 after the race started. Lol 2.60 for a 2.00 investment with a large wager.

Not sure how not getting less money on winners can't be considered a factor for long term losers.

Btw I bet cj awesome at 1.84 on the x. I got good value. The ones who bet pm got screwed outta money.

If more people bet on the x. The whales prices will down and they will make less money.

Allan

[whodoyoulike]

Dave, I clicked on your website link provided in your post above and get an error message.

Couldn't connect to a secure site.

That message appeared on my XP machine but, just tried it on my Win10 machine just now and everything is fine. Must have been a glitch earlier. Just noticed the web bar shows https// so that may have been the reason.