PDA

View Full Version : what did this derby teach you?


PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 02:55 PM
What did u learn this derby season that will benefit you in future derby wagers? For me its the following:

1. Horses dont need an "education" or to "face adversity" that's just something people say to sound smart.

2. Respect the RAN sure line.... Even more than I do...

3. Until something changes with the points system bet the horse that wins his final prep that can break well and sit off the pace and make his move around the turn.

4. Watch how Pletcher enters his horses for futures bets, he knew what he had and :bang: was no rush in running him in anything that matters until his final prep.

5. The pts system needs serious tweaking.

6. Completely dismiss the Bluegrass and Wood horses.

7. Completely dismiss any success at Tampa.... Although already knew this.

Gerard02
05-07-2017, 03:31 PM
It will certainly tone up my wagering for next year.

f2tornado
05-07-2017, 03:45 PM
Once again, the exacta consisted of two last out Brisnet 95+ LP. Once again, the exacta (and tri + super) consisted of RAN sire line. Once again, exacta consisted of two runners with fast final 3/8th in big 9F prep. Once again, TAP wins with a colt that was deserved to be one of the favorites. People who speak of his Derby record never discuss the chances of his starters. Once again, the Florida Derby winner scored. I believe that's now 6 of 14 since 2001.

I made plenty of money with a $13 AD/All Others in Future pool 4 but could have loaded up by making that wager in pool 3. I will play those smarter next year.

VigorsTheGrey
05-07-2017, 03:47 PM
I really thought this derby would have more pace early even in the slop...I thought the slop would serve to make the race more chaotic and that a longer price would end up in the top slot...I don't quite know why I threw AD out when I had indications that he would run well...in the back of my mind, I play out this recording that says "play longshots here...its very competitive and there's lots of horses, why accept 9/2 here...? I can get 9/2 anytime, right...?"
This, I believe, is faulty thinking...disappointed to say, I had those prices for 2nd and 3rd on my tickets...but didn't include the most probable winner in the top slot, even though I put other contenders there...crazy stuff but just real dumb on my part....

Gerard02
05-07-2017, 04:05 PM
I stuck to my guns, despite the slop. The data was too strong to back off AD. Thanks to SbCaris and his system. The data does not lie. I have to tweet my triples and supers a bit more, but I'm getting closer. At least, my exacta part wheels have paid off the past four years. Congrats to all of you who made money, yesterday.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 04:49 PM
toss every foreign shipper ever, no matter what. did this anyway. now i cant feel confident about it and never second guess myself.

JustRalph
05-07-2017, 04:53 PM
In a really heavy slop, half the field won't even be in the race. 3 yr olds with little experience aren't going run through it from the back. This is the most water I've ever seen on the track during the Derby.

I was contemplating canceling my tickets but it's a 1.5 hour drive round trip to cancel. So I sat on my butt. Had less than a hundred in the race, but the weather really screwed this race. I don't think too many could have gotten close to the winner, but at least ten horses never had a chance

slihawk
05-07-2017, 05:13 PM
The outside PP aren't as good as everyone says and the inside PP are not the kiss of death Oh the dreaded 1 hole

PhantomOnTour
05-07-2017, 05:18 PM
This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

dilanesp
05-07-2017, 05:31 PM
Don't assume any "trends" are anything other than statistical variance.

Mc990
05-07-2017, 06:03 PM
We learned the rail was good yesterday, especially for the derby. Period.

The points system makes it a more truly run race? Nonsense. Look at the tri and super yesterday... Certainly not formful.

The new points system slows the pace? Nonsense. They went 46.53 to the half. 2013 and 2015 were among the fastest opening half miles in history.

The 1 hole is ok? Nonsense. The 2 horse pulling up out of the gate certainly helped lookin at Lee grab a little more breathing room than he otherwise would have had.

As far as 5 favorites in a row... Nothing more than a statistical anomaly.

Congrats to anyone who hit the race but it's nothing more 1 data point to consider moving forward.

letswastemoney
05-07-2017, 07:13 PM
I've suspected Irish War Cry's limit is 1 1/8 miles, and that he'd be much happier at 1 1/16 miles or shorter like his sibling Irish Strait. I think I was right.

Curlin isn't everything. There's an entire dam side to analyze.

thaskalos
05-07-2017, 07:21 PM
This Derby reminded me of something that I already knew:

After every race...another "system" is born.

Ruffian1
05-07-2017, 07:24 PM
]We learned the rail was good yesterday, especially for the derby. Period. [/B]

The points system makes it a more truly run race? Nonsense. Look at the tri and super yesterday... Certainly not formful.

The new points system slows the pace? Nonsense. They went 46.53 to the half. 2013 and 2015 were among the fastest opening half miles in history.

The 1 hole is ok? Nonsense. The 2 horse pulling up out of the gate certainly helped lookin at Lee grab a little more breathing room than he otherwise would have had.

As far as 5 favorites in a row... Nothing more than a statistical anomaly.

Congrats to anyone who hit the race but it's nothing more 1 data point to consider moving forward.

Actually, we learned that on Wednesday when we knew the heavy rain was 100% for Thursday and Friday and maybe Saturday. Prior to the rain starting was when the track was graded. It was evident in both Thursday and Friday charts.

I wrote about this before and during last years Preakness if anyone is interested in better understanding track maintenance.

Hope that helps.

JustRalph
05-07-2017, 07:36 PM
This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

Care to expound ?

depalma113
05-07-2017, 08:41 PM
7. Completely dismiss any success at Tampa.... Although already knew this.

The winner won at Tampa.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 09:33 PM
The winner won at Tampa.

ok correction. The Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

AirNate012
05-07-2017, 09:55 PM
Stick with your initials thoughts and take a stand on horse (s) you think will win, and long shots you like to hit the board and play accordingly. Over thinking this derby cost me big.

soonboomer
05-07-2017, 10:04 PM
True distance breeding is a thing of the past in American racing. That's one reason the classics, when run at an honest pace, become a stagger fest coming down the stretch. One reason favorites have won 5 straight is that the best horses at a mile and an eighth are now always the best horses at a mile and a quarter. They went 53 and change the last half and 26 and change the last quarter off an honest pace, and nothing could come close to running Always Dreaming down. It wasn't always this way.

dilanesp
05-08-2017, 01:14 AM
ok correction. The Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby.

Street Sense came out of the Tampa Bay Derby.

You can't throw out prep races. The best three year old could be in any of them.

For instance, does anyone doubt that despite the current drought, the Wood will have another Derby winner sometime? Because odds are, the best horse will be located in New York one year because it is a top circuit.

There's no substitute for actually handicapping which preps are strongest

Fager Fan
05-08-2017, 08:28 AM
This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

Do favorites win 100% of the time normally?

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 09:12 AM
Do favorites win 100% of the time normally?


Only under the pts system

no breathalyzer
05-08-2017, 12:39 PM
What i leaned was for the 3 days i was there that was the biggest golden rail i seen in a long time.. instead of making adjustments i just drank my ass off in the infield and looked and the beautiful scenery walking around.

It rained for at least 60 hrs straight.. how that turf course was listed as good in amazing to me.. im guessing the water drains towards the infield.. no one wanted any part of the rail

chiguy
05-08-2017, 12:40 PM
If your girlfriend and best friend have the same birthday (1-5) and you box that exacta regularly for a hunch, do it in the Derby too. Cannot believe I didn't do it.

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 12:46 PM
in reference to this 'golden rail' I rewatched the broadcast and right after the race when the outrider went up to Johnny V and it was caught on mic, he said "I told you stay on the rail" so there probably was a bias but I think he would of won anyway

Robert Fischer
05-08-2017, 01:41 PM
learned/reminded

Keep it simple, and tackle the high percentage opinions with a top->down approach from a variety of angles.
Plan out your strategy, and tactics, ahead of time, with a specific plan.

The big days often reward a player who has more insight into even the most general of things, - provided they are decisive.

You don't have to challenge yourself ,and tackle a bunch of multi-layered highly-specific predictions, although it is worth constructing a few light tickets when the payouts are of the boxcar variety.

señorclipclop
05-08-2017, 01:50 PM
Put your top two over the next eight in the tri. Or, just bet the turf races.

burnsy
05-08-2017, 03:58 PM
Street Sense came out of the Tampa Bay Derby.

You can't throw out prep races. The best three year old could be in any of them.

For instance, does anyone doubt that despite the current drought, the Wood will have another Derby winner sometime? Because odds are, the best horse will be located in New York one year because it is a top circuit.

There's no substitute for actually handicapping which preps are strongest




Totally agree, don't "auto toss" anything. Winners have come from every prep. Except Dubai, but that will happen some day too. Try to figure out which circuit is the strongest. I am wary of Tampa because its just a weird place. When those two didn't fire in the Blue Grass, I tossed both of those short priced winners that shipped to Keenland.

I judged the GP scene to be the strongest horses this year. Classic Empire and Irish War Cry threw duds there, shipped and came to life. Practical Joke shipped out and ran well defeating the short priced horses from Tampa. When Always Dreaming beat the piss out of the GP horses that stuck around........I kind of thought he was good to go. The crap about his workouts was garbage, yes, he was keen, but he was feeling it and wanted to run. Sometimes that's a good thing, damn horse is kicking the stall door to race!

I learned to throw in horses that close the fastest in their last prep, that cost me that big exacta.

PhantomOnTour
05-08-2017, 06:10 PM
This Derby taught me what the previous four did under the new points system.
It's a more truly run race

To expand on this and respond to a few questions...

The top five choices all finished in the top half of the field, and the chalk and 3rd choice ran 1st & 4th...in a 20 horse field.
I cannot verify (cuz BRIS took away my access to chart archives...grrr!) but I seem to recall that the trifecta in the 2016 Derby was one of the lowest ever.
The 2015 Derby with Amer. Pharaoh, Dortmund & Firing Line I seem to recall was kinda chalky as well.
Comm Curve ran 2nd to Chrome in 2014 and probably blew up the exotics...maybe Danza ran 3rd???

Again, the memory isn't as sharp without access to the chart archives. If anyone has them I would appreciate it...they may prove me wrong, but my point was that this race hasn't been as wildly unpredictable (to the masses) as some we've seen in the 15yrs or so prior to the changes in the points system.

EDIT:
In Chrome's 2014 Derby the top three choices were in the superfecta, with Comm Curve the only outlier

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 08:13 PM
EDIT:
In Chrome's 2014 Derby the top three choices were in the superfecta, with Comm Curve the only outlier

Same with Orb in 2013. Golden Soul was the lone board bomber.

We're still seeing board bombers. Further, while the bona fide tote board favorites are on a winning streak, it's not like favorites and near favorites have not won most renewals (http://www.vegasinsider.com/horse-racing/results/past-winners/kentucky-derby/).

Blenheim
05-08-2017, 09:13 PM
True distance breeding is a thing of the past in American racing. That's one reason the classics, when run at an honest pace, become a stagger fest coming down the stretch. One reason favorites have won 5 straight is that the best horses at a mile and an eighth are now always the best horses at a mile and a quarter. They went 53 and change the last half and 26 and change the last quarter off an honest pace, and nothing could come close to running Always Dreaming down. It wasn't always this way.


Agree.

In addition, I think we are going to see more and more fresh, lightly raced horses displacing the horses that ran in Stakes races as two-year-olds. Hopefully, most handicappers will not make the necessary adjustments.

CincyHorseplayer
05-08-2017, 09:50 PM
That the Derby sucks and it is not a big wagering event any more. Sick of it.

señorclipclop
05-08-2017, 10:15 PM
That the Derby sucks and it is not a big wagering event any more. Sick of it.


The tri paid $4,000 and the super paid $75,000. What more do you need?

JustRalph
05-08-2017, 10:49 PM
That the Derby sucks and it is not a big wagering event any more. Sick of it.

Weather ruined it this year. I think the horses get worse every year. But weather was the real reason the race was bad. Half the field was never in it

CincyHorseplayer
05-09-2017, 03:39 AM
Weather ruined it this year. I think the horses get worse every year. But weather was the real reason the race was bad. Half the field was never in it

Ralph I have cashed in 4 of the last 7 derbies. I get no great thrill out of it unless I can drill the hell out of something. With this chalky BS. Mediocre payoffs getting pumped up like it's the greatest thing since sliced bread. Whateva! I tore up 11 and 13 then we get this parade of chalk and nonsense. I get my Irish up for the Derby every year but IMO this race has degenerated into a snooze fest. Made more money at Will Rogers Downs this week than Churchill and that's becoming a common theme. We been doing this for a couple decades. We allowed to be salty dogs! LOL! Weather really did affect it. I usually crush turf races this weekend. No dice.

PowerUpPaynter
05-09-2017, 08:01 AM
in the realm of derby races it was one of the more boring. and i know im gonna get crucified for saying this but this is one of the weakest crops if not the weakest crop this century. I do think Always Dreaming wins the Preakness in Smarty Jones fashion, I just hope he loses in Belmont because he's not a great horse and wouldnt want to taint the Triple Crown. If he was to win the Triple Crown its merely an indictment on how bad a crop it is rather than how good he is. This horse in no American Pharoah, not even as good as California Chrome. However I will pound exotic tickets with him up top for the Preakness. The field under him is a joke and should be racing on Tuesdays at Delaware Park. Its the Big Brown year all over again. Can we get someone to inexplicably pull him up in the Belmont to save the sanctity of the Triple Crown?

Dahoss9698
05-09-2017, 08:30 AM
in the realm of derby races it was one of the more boring. and i know im gonna get crucified for saying this but this is one of the weakest crops if not the weakest crop this century. I do think Always Dreaming wins the Preakness in Smarty Jones fashion, I just hope he loses in Belmont because he's not a great horse and wouldnt want to taint the Triple Crown. If he was to win the Triple Crown its merely an indictment on how bad a crop it is rather than how good he is. This horse in no American Pharoah, not even as good as California Chrome. However I will pound exotic tickets with him up top for the Preakness. The field under him is a joke and should be racing on Tuesdays at Delaware Park. Its the Big Brown year all over again. Can we get someone to inexplicably pull him up in the Belmont to save the sanctity of the Triple Crown?

I'm sorry but this makes no sense. You're probably right he's not a great horse but isn't it a tad early to know for certain? I didn't like him going into the Derby, and I was way wrong but it's kind of hard to argue his results so far.

Taint the triple crown? It's not like American Pharaoh was beating a bunch of hall of famers in the triple crown.

Don't take this the wrong way but maybe don't focus on one race so much. I mean with the daily threads about every single horse. That way, if you end up being wrong it's not so bad that you post posts like this.

There's a lot of exciting racing almost every day out there. Broaden your horizon a bit and don't put all your eggs in the Derby basket.

PowerUpPaynter
05-09-2017, 08:41 AM
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. You're probably right he's not a great horse but isn't it a tad early to know for certain? I didn't like him going into the Derby, and I was way wrong but it's kind of hard to argue his results so far.

Taint the triple crown? It's not like American Pharaoh was beating a bunch of hall of famers in the triple crown.

Don't take this the wrong way but maybe don't focus on one race so much. I mean with the daily threads about every single horse. That way, if you end up being wrong it's not so bad that you post posts like this.

There's a lot of exciting racing almost every day out there. Broaden your horizon a bit and don't put all your eggs in the Derby basket.

Your right in the fact that i do enjoy the lead up to the derby probably a little too much i guess it just burns my ass a little when it dont live up to the hype. very anti-climatic derby this year. The favorite broke great, carved out a great trip along a golden rail (which he would of won anyway) and closed it out. No real drama in this derby. Hopefully the Preakness can be more interesting. With my luck lately it will be and he will get caught by a nose because iv so very very confident he wins by a huge margin.

Julz
05-09-2017, 11:39 AM
Pharoah already tainted the triple crowns. For the greats that were already out there, that one was a joke. Losing to Keen Ice. My lord. Not much competition for him that year. Beat tale of verve in the Preakness. Tale of Verve. It's a shame that the triple crown was tainted. A horse that it should be reserved for would be a horse like Arrogate.

PaceAdvantage
05-09-2017, 12:45 PM
Pharoah already tainted the triple crowns. For the greats that were already out there, that one was a joke. Losing to Keen Ice. My lord. Not much competition for him that year. Beat tale of verve in the Preakness. Tale of Verve. It's a shame that the triple crown was tainted. A horse that it should be reserved for would be a horse like Arrogate.This is ridiculous. Secretariat lost to Onion and Prove Out and Angle Light.

My lord indeed! :lol:

And no, I'm not saying Pharoah is equal to Secretariat...just making a point.

PowerUpPaynter
05-09-2017, 01:15 PM
This is ridiculous. Secretariat lost to Onion and Prove Out and Angle Light.

My lord indeed! :lol:

And no, I'm not saying Pharoah is equal to Secretariat...just making a point.

Pharoah's Belmont time is the 7th fastest ever at 1 1/2 and 2nd to only Secretariat out of Triple Crown Winners. Agree with Pace Advantage, total foolish statement.

Fred Mertz
05-09-2017, 01:58 PM
The Derby taught me to bet on the tote board favorite. I read and study and all that, but I've been wrong more often than not.

I put money on Thunder Snow to show. I didn't realize he was a bucking bronco in a rodeo show.

It was all fun though.

elhelmete
05-09-2017, 02:04 PM
It taught me that horseplayers can't ever be satisfied if a favorite that paid over $11 is bad for the game.

LottaKash
05-09-2017, 02:19 PM
It taught me that horseplayers can't ever be satisfied if a favorite that paid over $11 is bad for the game.

Amen to that...:jump:

$11.80 is a number that would normally be a 3d or 4th choice in most other types of races...

Can't please them all I guess, haha...

But, I suspect that the ones who are doing the most with the dissatisfaction thing, are the ones who just didn't have the numbers on that day...:(

dilanesp
05-09-2017, 02:23 PM
Pharoah's Belmont time is the 7th fastest ever at 1 1/2 and 2nd to only Secretariat out of Triple Crown Winners. Agree with Pace Advantage, total foolish statement.

I'm not an AP fan, but I love his Belmont. He ran the second six furlongs in the same time as his first six furlongs-- i.e., he never slowed down going 1 1/2 miles on dirt.

AP also beat more horses in the TC, by far, than any other TC winner. I certainly am not a fan of his post-TC career of all of three races, but he in no way "tainted" the TC.

dilanesp
05-09-2017, 02:24 PM
Amen to that...:jump:

$11.80 is a number that would normally be a 3d or 4th choice in most other types of races...

Can't please them all I guess, haha...

But, I suspect that the ones who are doing the most with the dissatisfaction thing, are the ones who just didn't have the numbers on that day...:(

There's a bit of fallacious reasoning here. Favorites in 20 horse fields should pay more, because they are less likely, on average, to win.

But yes, 9 to 2 on AD was definitely a fair price.

thaskalos
05-09-2017, 02:26 PM
Your right in the fact that i do enjoy the lead up to the derby probably a little too much i guess it just burns my ass a little when it dont live up to the hype. very anti-climatic derby this year. The favorite broke great, carved out a great trip along a golden rail (which he would of won anyway) and closed it out. No real drama in this derby. Hopefully the Preakness can be more interesting. With my luck lately it will be and he will get caught by a nose because iv so very very confident he wins by a huge margin.

There is enough "drama" in the game overall...does it really matter if the Triple Crown is "drama-free" once in a while? There is a 98% horseplayer casualty rate in this game...isn't that about as much "drama" as the horseplayer can stand?

For decades there was no Triple Crown winner...and suggestions were made on this very board about making "alterations" to the TC trail, to lighten the horses' task...lest we live a lifetime without ever seeing another TC winner again. But, after only one year, the pendulum has swung all the way to the other side...and now the Triple Crown bores us. What is it that we horseplayers really want, anyway?

Every year some horse wins the Derby...and the vast majority of the Derby winner are unremarkable. Many of them go on to win the Preakness as well...and that's when the "drama" really begins...because the Belmont is the "great divide". Be patient. In the TC saga...the drama usually comes in the THIRD act.

elhelmete
05-09-2017, 02:37 PM
What is it that we horseplayers really want, anyway?


This, my friend, is exactly how I feel.

SO many half-baked and contradictory suggestions and rants and fallacies, and lots of whip-sawing from one set of complaints to the opposite set of complaints.

MNslappy
05-09-2017, 02:38 PM
Bet long shots to Place/Show.

LaL ... / 26.60 / 15.20
BoM ... / ... / 20.80

Some day I'll learn to take all the money I usually burn chasing big superfecta scores and just bet it all on horses like these to hit the board.

26.60 to place. I liked him to clunk up for 3rd or 4th and used him on a lot of tickets. But not in the right spot. :bang:

elhelmete
05-09-2017, 03:10 PM
There's a bit of fallacious reasoning here. Favorites in 20 horse fields should pay more, because they are less likely, on average, to win.

Sure, but only a bit. Past few years we had very short priced favorites in 20 horse fields, prices more in line with ham-and-egg races we see every day.

But the overall point stands...irrespective of status as a 'favorite' an almost $12 win payoff is pretty freaking awesome. Never mind the exotics...

Mc990
05-09-2017, 03:25 PM
Sure, but only a bit. Past few years we had very short priced favorites in 20 horse fields, prices more in line with ham-and-egg races we see every day.

But the overall point stands...irrespective of status as a 'favorite' an almost $12 win payoff is pretty freaking awesome. Never mind the exotics...

Am I the only one who thought Always Dreaming was an underlay... Even after watching the race play out.

Favorite or not, he didn't and still doesn't seem like value to me.

thaskalos
05-09-2017, 03:35 PM
Am I the only one who thought Always Dreaming was an underlay... Even after watching the race play out.

Favorite or not, he didn't and still doesn't seem like value to me.

You mean that...after watching the horse's performance in the Derby...you felt that the win payoff should have been more than $11.40?

elhelmete
05-09-2017, 03:39 PM
Am I the only one who thought Always Dreaming was an underlay... Even after watching the race play out.

Favorite or not, he didn't and still doesn't seem like value to me.

I suppose we all have to decide on our own value line, if that's what we do. I respect that.

My point though is about the context of all the post-Derby pearl clutching and grousing...

We bitch about super-low prices on favorites and yet here's a very gettable winner who still pays almost $12 despite technically being the favorite...and still we have people here looking for the dark side of that.

Mc990
05-09-2017, 04:15 PM
You mean that...after watching the horse's performance in the Derby...you felt that the win payoff should have been more than $11.40?

Yes, I think a lot of horses didn't fire and he got a relatively good trip. I don't want to argue whether or not there was an inside bias but it sure seemed that way to me.

From a speed figure perspective, you need to give battle of midway a big improvement in order to get AD any kind of good number... To me it's entirely possible that he regressed and still won because no one else with a chance fired on Saturday

Visually impressive? Yes. A fast race? Not so sure. Let's see him back it up in the Preakness.... Smells like super saver part 2

Full disclosure, I had him singled in the horizontals Florida derby day and thought I got the best of it at 5/2. Just my opinion from strictly a value standpoint.

thaskalos
05-09-2017, 04:30 PM
Yes, I think a lot of horses didn't fire and he got a relatively good trip. I don't want to argue whether or not there was an inside bias but it sure seemed that way to me.

From a speed figure perspective, you need to give battle of midway a big improvement in order to get AD any kind of good number... To me it's entirely possible that he regressed and still won because no one else with a chance fired on Saturday

Visually impressive? Yes. A fast race? Not so sure. Let's see him back it up in the Preakness.... Smells like super saver part 2

Full disclosure, I had him singled in the horizontals Florida derby day and thought I got the best of it at 5/2. Just my opinion from strictly a value standpoint.

In this game...the "value evaluations" are so subjective in nature that there can be no "right-or-wrong" individual opinion. My OWN opinion was that Always Dreaming deserved the favoritism in that race...and the 9/2 price seemed fair enough.

Mc990
05-09-2017, 04:33 PM
I suppose we all have to decide on our own value line, if that's what we do. I respect that.

My point though is about the context of all the post-Derby pearl clutching and grousing...

We bitch about super-low prices on favorites and yet here's a very gettable winner who still pays almost $12 despite technically being the favorite...and still we have people here looking for the dark side of that.

I'm betting most people would be saying the same thing if CE, IWC or McK would have won. Were they all overlays or just AD?

I'm generalizing here but most bettors assume big price= value. I guess I always thought value was chance of winning being better than the price being offered. If all 20 horses theoretically had an equal chance and the favorite wins at 10-1, he's not value

Exotic1
05-09-2017, 05:15 PM
Yes, I think a lot of horses didn't fire and he got a relatively good trip. I don't want to argue whether or not there was an inside bias but it sure seemed that way to me.

From a speed figure perspective, you need to give battle of midway a big improvement in order to get AD any kind of good number... To me it's entirely possible that he regressed and still won because no one else with a chance fired on Saturday

Visually impressive? Yes. A fast race? Not so sure. Let's see him back it up in the Preakness.... Smells like super saver part 2

Full disclosure, I had him singled in the horizontals Florida derby day and thought I got the best of it at 5/2. Just my opinion from strictly a value standpoint.

Forget the earlier posts predicting bounces.

When you say, "...A fast race? Not so sure. Let's see him back it up in the Preakness..." you're saying that the Preakness outcome, as it relates to Always Dreaming, will help determine the quality of his KD performance. But doesn't a typical and even sophisticated sheet player (not being critical) think the other way, in a counter intuitive manner? That a poor performance in the Preakness would prove that his KD performance was so strong and superior that it caused a reaction, since AD didn't have enough foundation (2 yo, early 3yo development)? I'm being somewhat genuine here. That's what makes sheet players a little different - a favorite performing poorly is nothing more than a reaction (not going to use the "b" word) as opposed to he doesn't "class up" or he "tripped out" in his prior races or he rode a good rail. I think an outcome where AD doesn't win the Preakness can be attributed to many factors, none of them will be certain though. One camp will say he reacted to the sudden Fla Derby race followed by the KD inducing stress and so on. Adding in a possibility that the sheets may have the KD a little slower than the Fla Derby (b/c of ground loss in the Fla Derby) which portends a poor Preakness effort. Another camp will say that a poor Preakness effort for AD only uncovered his vulnerability, that he couldn't overcome adversity given the "perfect" trips he had. Another camp will say, none of these are true, you have wrong speed numbers and that AD performed poorly in the Preakness b/c he was never fast enough and some other new face matured over the past month. Bottom line, no one knows for sure what a poor or good performance in the Preakness would/should prove. jmo.

depalma113
05-09-2017, 05:28 PM
in the realm of derby races it was one of the more boring. and i know im gonna get crucified for saying this but this is one of the weakest crops if not the weakest crop this century. I do think Always Dreaming wins the Preakness in Smarty Jones fashion, I just hope he loses in Belmont because he's not a great horse and wouldnt want to taint the Triple Crown. If he was to win the Triple Crown its merely an indictment on how bad a crop it is rather than how good he is. This horse in no American Pharoah, not even as good as California Chrome. However I will pound exotic tickets with him up top for the Preakness. The field under him is a joke and should be racing on Tuesdays at Delaware Park. Its the Big Brown year all over again. Can we get someone to inexplicably pull him up in the Belmont to save the sanctity of the Triple Crown?


The Derby is nothing more than a glorified win and you are in race now. The best horses are winning because more than half the field simply got lucky to be there and really have no affect whatsoever on how the race is run.

coachv30
05-09-2017, 06:30 PM
I learned that it is just another race.....in fact it's a race most people would probably toss on a normal day with all of the horses and other intangibles. It's just that the big pools are hard to resist.

Handicap it like you would any other race that you are handicapping on a card. If you weigh in too much that you normally don't, you may find yourself on a winner and then off of him a few minutes later. Stick to your normal handicapping tendencies (whatever they may be).

Exotic1
05-09-2017, 06:49 PM
TFUS has Always Dreaming pairing tops - KD #w Fla Derby #. Same with HDW. TFUS has top 6 KD finishers matching their projected number (within reason), except for Lookin At Lee who improved in KD. Pretty much the same with HDW except for Practical Joke who went back a little on their scale. Thorograph has each of top KD 4 finishers improving on what would be their projected #'s, some by alot. They have Classic Empire matching his 2yo BC top (off by .5 pt).

JustRalph
05-09-2017, 07:06 PM
AP set a new standard.

The grand slam cannot be ignored.

dilanesp
05-09-2017, 09:01 PM
AP set a new standard.

The grand slam cannot be ignored.

I am underwhelmed by the "grand slam", because he only ran in three races after the TC and lost one of them.

I suspect the TC winner will usually win the BC Classic if he or she is handled this way, but it doesn't really prove anything the way, for instance, Affirmed's post-TC career proved a lot.

Blenheim
05-09-2017, 09:32 PM
in the realm of derby races it was one of the more boring. and i know im gonna get crucified for saying this but this is one of the weakest crops if not the weakest crop this century. I do think Always Dreaming wins the Preakness in Smarty Jones fashion, I just hope he loses in Belmont because he's not a great horse and wouldnt want to taint the Triple Crown. If he was to win the Triple Crown its merely an indictment on how bad a crop it is rather than how good he is. This horse in no American Pharoah, not even as good as California Chrome. However I will pound exotic tickets with him up top for the Preakness. The field under him is a joke and should be racing on Tuesdays at Delaware Park. Its the Big Brown year all over again. Can we get someone to inexplicably pull him up in the Belmont to save the sanctity of the Triple Crown?


Continue to be enthusiastic, the sport is in dire need of it. Maybe your enthusiasm will become contagious.
~
I think the Preakness may be even better than the Derby. From what I've read Classic Empire and Gunnevera are confirmed, and those two are of equal class and dead set on some revenge! Lookin' forward to some real hoss' racin' on a dry fast track, see what they got for AD.
~
Lessons learned . . . the type of horses winning the Derby appears to be changing and handicappers must keep pace.

nancy4487
05-09-2017, 09:51 PM
On any other day, I would refrain from wagering on a track that was such a mess. Lesson learned=stick to my guns in the Derby, too.

CincyHorseplayer
05-10-2017, 06:41 PM
I am underwhelmed by the "grand slam", because he only ran in three races after the TC and lost one of them.

I suspect the TC winner will usually win the BC Classic if he or she is handled this way, but it doesn't really prove anything the way, for instance, Affirmed's post-TC career proved a lot.

This is ridiculous. But it sure is funny! Wow!:headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
05-10-2017, 07:00 PM
The fun and excitement in the air leading up to the Derby was top notch. I try not to build the Derby up but it is and I can't deny it! My saltiness was largely self made. Derby and BC weekends are my two best weekends of the betting year. Been a while since I took a lashing over a 2 day set(rained out a big shindig here also!). I sure did this year! 76% loss on all bets in play. I was due. But also thought non betting favorites were due in the Derby. 3.5-1 in a 20 horse field is not that great for teenage horses going 10f off for the first time. In any other race I know my top 2 choices will win 50+% of the time and I can bet the higher odds horse and win an equal amount of time at a higher mutuel as the horse in my top 2 getting bet heavily. In most races that's about 2-1 vs 5-1 odds. In a race like the Derby it's 4-1 vs 10-1. I think it's a seriously disturbing trend if the lower odds horse is going to all of the sudden be invincible in a race like the Kentucky Derby. This is the type of thing that drives me absolutely bonkers and I will have to minimize the race's significance so I don't lose my mind! Seriously. But in the end Always Dreaming showed the talent before the race and ran an impressively good race. That was a very nice performance. On to the next dance!

dilanesp
05-10-2017, 07:11 PM
This is ridiculous. But it sure is funny! Wow!:headbanger:

Which impresses you more:

1. Beating Spectacular Bid, who never lost again, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup under 132 pounds in 1:58 3/5, and winning the Santa Anita Handicap over Exceller in stakes record time (which stood for 26 years).

or

2. Winning a BC Classic over a depleted field that didn't even havr the second best dirt horse in the country in the race, after losing to Keen Ice, a habitual loser, in the Travers?

Heck, just compare their two losses in the Travers!

CincyHorseplayer
05-10-2017, 07:14 PM
Which impresses you more:

1. Beating Spectacular Bid, who never lost again, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup under 132 pounds in 1:58 3/5, and winning the Santa Anita Handicap over Exceller in stakes record time (which stood for 26 years).

or

2. Winning a BC Classic over a depleted field that didn't even havr the second best dirt horse in the country in the race, after losing to Keen Ice, a habitual loser, in the Travers?

Heck, just compare their two losses in the Travers!

Right. Unless he had access to a time machine he'll never be great. Have heard this mental defect before!:)

jocko699
05-10-2017, 07:15 PM
On any other day, I would refrain from wagering on a track that was such a mess. Lesson learned=stick to my guns in the Derby, too.

I concur about the track condition. I initially Gunnevera but changed on KD to Classic Empire.

I should have just sat out the race and watched.

PowerUpPaynter
05-10-2017, 08:43 PM
Which impresses you more:

1. Beating Spectacular Bid, who never lost again, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup under 132 pounds in 1:58 3/5, and winning the Santa Anita Handicap over Exceller in stakes record time (which stood for 26 years).

or

2. Winning a BC Classic over a depleted field that didn't even havr the second best dirt horse in the country in the race, after losing to Keen Ice, a habitual loser, in the Travers?

Heck, just compare their two losses in the Travers!

Upsets never happen in sports right? c'mon maaaaaaaaaaaaan :ThmbDown:

dilanesp
05-10-2017, 09:00 PM
Right. Unless he had access to a time machine he'll never be great. Have heard this mental defect before!:)

He didn't need a time machine, just a less greedy owner.

Don't give horses credit for things they don't achieve. And don't take greedy owners for granted-- push back against them.

MonmouthParkJoe
05-11-2017, 10:43 AM
I learned to just bet the favorite and stack that cheddar :D

Tom
05-13-2017, 11:05 AM
AP set a new standard.

The grand slam cannot be ignored.

That is what they say at Denny's!:cool:

The next thing is the Hugh Five - TC, Classic, Pegasus.
Then of course, the 6-Pack. TC, Classic, Pegasus., and World Cup.

Too bad a lot of horse will never have a chance at that one - 6 start in a year is beyond may of today's so-called trainers.

señorclipclop
05-13-2017, 12:33 PM
That is what they say at Denny's!:cool:

The next thing is the Hugh Five - TC, Classic, Pegasus.
Then of course, the 6-Pack. TC, Classic, Pegasus., and World Cup.

Too bad a lot of horse will never have a chance at that one - 6 start in a year is beyond may of today's so-called trainers.

Eh, I think the Grand Slam should be the TC races and the Travers.

PowerUpPaynter
05-13-2017, 01:22 PM
Eh, I think the Grand Slam should be the TC races and the Travers.

Hey dont forget the Haskell!!!

mountainman
05-13-2017, 01:56 PM
This derby reinforced some plain, simple beliefs I have about predicting the winner: Jump in late to avoid being swayed by hype, or getting hooked on any horse still having time to regress; tolerate NO backwards steps on the part of any contender; pay particular attention to horses having previous wins at CD and to those that work fast there during derby week; demand a strong final- furlong time from a horse's last prep race.

Elementary stuff, but these guidelines have served me well.

Tom
05-13-2017, 03:13 PM
Most important thing to remember - the undercards have buried treasure in them.

PowerUpPaynter
05-13-2017, 03:41 PM
tolerate NO backwards steps on the part of any contender

so true... toss any horse at time of hiccup

think about it... Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, McCraken, Tapwrit, J Boys Echo, Girvin.

Top 3 really didnt take any steps back, surely Battle Of Midway and Lookin At Lee didnt look like world beaters but progressed slow and steady thru the first Saturday in May