PDA

View Full Version : and it's on to the Preakness...


PowerUpPaynter
05-06-2017, 08:04 PM
Good for Todd Pletcher always thought he was the type of trainer we would blink and he would have multiple derby wins. Always Dreaming is the type of horse that will win the Preakness setting is up for a fun Belmont.

arw629
05-07-2017, 09:48 AM
Good for Todd Pletcher always thought he was the type of trainer we would blink and he would have multiple derby wins. Always Dreaming is the type of horse that will win the Preakness setting is up for a fun Belmont.

That race was so boring. It felt like I was watching an Aqueduct Inner Route race where there was a gold rail. My first thought after the derby was that the Conquest MO Money team had to be sick they didn't supplement there horse bc with the inside bias I think they would have gotten to the front and never looked back. I hope Conquest MO Money heads to Baltimore ...

Gerard02
05-07-2017, 09:54 AM
Classic Empire got bumped and shuffled back at the start. Made up lots of ground. I'll give him another shot, if he goes to the Preakness.

zico20
05-07-2017, 11:10 AM
Classic Empire got bumped and shuffled back at the start. Made up lots of ground. I'll give him another shot, if he goes to the Preakness.

I am with you on Classic Empire. Always Dreaming got an ideal trip, I will attempt to beat him in the Preakness.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 11:42 AM
I am with you on Classic Empire. Always Dreaming got an ideal trip, I will attempt to beat him in the Preakness.

Always Dreaming made his own great trip tho by breaking great and putting himself in perfect position.

burnsy
05-07-2017, 12:11 PM
Always Dreaming made his own great trip tho by breaking great and putting himself in perfect position.

.......and that's why I said I liked him. That horse does not need the lead, he just has to be close. With the point system there are really no sprinter, pretenders in this race. The pace scenario used to set up the crazy results but the race has been way more logical with 5 logical winners in a row. Horses like this avoid the "cluster fck" by being near the lead. I think Orb was the only one to come from the clouds so being tactical is a huge advantage in this race.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 12:15 PM
I'll be the first to say it..... Can the FAVORITE really win 6 years in a row?

Gerard02
05-07-2017, 12:19 PM
I agree. Always Dreaming won his race. As I said, both he and Classic Empire came up on the list just a couple of points apart. One got his race. The other took it on the chin, but managed a courageous stretch drive. It will be some Preakness to watch.

Now, according to Sbcaris' Handicapping the Triple Crown, none of the horses from the Derby qualify on his first rule. Always Dreaming finished his last 1/4 in 26.72. I dont know if I should fall back on their Big 6 prep finishes, or just go with Always Dreaming and Classic Empire, if he runs.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 12:30 PM
https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/861240686527623170

n.c
05-07-2017, 01:44 PM
nothing to gain. Rested CE vs AD at the Belmont.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 03:08 PM
Going to be tough to make money on the Preakness. AD is perfect style for easy Preakness win. Wonder if Pletcher still enters Malagacy? Maybe Cloud Computing at a price underneath... Very early

handyman1968
05-07-2017, 03:16 PM
Classic Empire made that long sustained run. Which is what I look for in a Belmont horse. Same with Reach The World. These are the 2 horses I'm looking for to take down AD if he runs the Belmont assuming a TC is on the line.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 03:26 PM
Classic Empire made that long sustained run. Which is what I look for in a Belmont horse. Same with Reach The World. These are the 2 horses I'm looking for to take down AD if he runs the Belmont assuming a TC is on the line.

Sorry bud but Reach The World was put down after training injury. Rip big guy

f2tornado
05-07-2017, 03:33 PM
Classic Empire made that long sustained run. Which is what I look for in a Belmont horse. Same with Reach The World. These are the 2 horses I'm looking for to take down AD if he runs the Belmont assuming a TC is on the line.

Sadly, Reach The World was euthanized after a bad break during training. I agree with Classic Empire aside from his dosage is is not favorable for the Belmont. Always Dreaming in same boat. Hopefully AD wins the Preakness which could set up a bomb throwing event in the Belmont.

forced89
05-07-2017, 10:17 PM
Classic Empire got bumped and shuffled back at the start. Made up lots of ground. I'll give him another shot, if he goes to the Preakness.

Agree!

rastajenk
05-08-2017, 07:57 AM
I think the best possible outcome for this Triple Crown season would be for Classic Empire to beat Always Dreaming in a Pimlico stretch duel, and establish a genuine rivalry for the Belmont and beyond.

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 11:16 AM
https://twitter.com/casseracingnc/status/861580821525921793

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 12:22 PM
Gunnevera who will be ridden by Mike Smith and Hence to Preakness.

Gerard02
05-08-2017, 12:54 PM
The only dilemma is that none of the derby horses qualify on rule 1 of the final fractions for the Preakness. AD finished his final quarter in 26.72, according to Trackus. The others 26 and change on up. I believe the rule states a horse coming out of the Derby must finish in 25 2/5ths. However, already, we have five horses with the RAN line running in the Preakness.

letswastemoney
05-08-2017, 01:03 PM
Classic Empire is a good horse, but he's bit overrated to me.

He hasn't matched his Breeders' Cup Juvenile speed figure in three subsequent tries, and some people are saying he was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby with another rough trip. I need to watch it again I guess.

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 02:41 PM
The only dilemma is that none of the derby horses qualify on rule 1 of the final fractions for the Preakness. AD finished his final quarter in 26.72, according to Trackus. The others 26 and change on up. I believe the rule states a horse coming out of the Derby must finish in 25 2/5ths. However, already, we have five horses with the RAN line running in the Preakness.

American Pharoah ran his final 1/4 in 26.57, and California Chrome in 26.21 so i dont know how much it matters

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 03:07 PM
The only dilemma is that none of the derby horses qualify on rule 1 of the final fractions for the Preakness. AD finished his final quarter in 26.72, according to Trackus. The others 26 and change on up. I believe the rule states a horse coming out of the Derby must finish in 25 2/5ths. However, already, we have five horses with the RAN line running in the Preakness.

1)the runner must have achieved a final eighth of a mile in 12.6 seconds or less or raced the last 3 furlongs in 37.8 or less in a big 5 prep race or raced the last quarter of the Derby in 25 2/5 or less

AD is fine.

Gerard02
05-09-2017, 12:10 PM
Yes, you're quite correct. I will use the first step and go from there. Shouldn't take too long assigning them their points. Although, with about 10 runners, five are RAN. Makes for an easy Triple box. Same set up on the exacta part wheel.

upthecreek
05-09-2017, 01:59 PM
https://twitter.com/ABRLive/status/861961574281510912

Julz
05-09-2017, 03:23 PM
That horse is up the creek in this one. The major bounce is finally coming. Out of the money.

señorclipclop
05-09-2017, 11:25 PM
https://twitter.com/ABRLive/status/861961574281510912

Looks a little ribby.

depalma113
05-10-2017, 07:01 AM
That horse is up the creek in this one. The major bounce is finally coming. Out of the money.

Well, if that's the case, you will make plenty of money. Much more likely though, he wins easily and you don't win a dime.

PowerUpPaynter
05-10-2017, 08:53 AM
Well, if that's the case, you will make plenty of money. Much more likely though, he wins easily and you don't win a dime.

Yup, im thinking Smarty Jones like Preakness vs those turd sandwiches... The real fun will be finding the 41-1 to clip him in the Belmont! He's not a great horse and somehow the ghost of the Triple Crown one way or the other will find a way to make sure he don't taint the the feat of winning the Triple Crown. Epicharis maybe?

Hoops McCann
05-10-2017, 01:36 PM
Yup, im thinking Smarty Jones like Preakness vs those turd sandwiches... The real fun will be finding the 41-1 to clip him in the Belmont! He's not a great horse and somehow the ghost of the Triple Crown one way or the other will find a way to make sure he don't taint the the feat of winning the Triple Crown. Epicharis maybe?

thinking the same thing. Epicharis lying in wait.

f2tornado
05-10-2017, 02:54 PM
Yup, im thinking Smarty Jones like Preakness vs those turd sandwiches... The real fun will be finding the 41-1 to clip him in the Belmont! He's not a great horse and somehow the ghost of the Triple Crown one way or the other will find a way to make sure he don't taint the the feat of winning the Triple Crown. Epicharis maybe?

Greatness is subjective. I too think AD romps the Preakness. The pace pars are perfect for him. Preakness winner is typically forwardly placed early. Even Exaggerator ran closer to the pace than his usual last year. Lee will likely not have those slow closing fractions in the Derby to clunk up into but perhaps can grab another piece against this weak crew. An AD/CE exacta seems logical but might only pay 6-1. I also agree AD is beatable in the Belmont, but I thought the same of AP. Dosage might be out of style in the Derby but it still appears to have some relevance in the Belmont when 4.00+ DI winners are rare. AP was one of the exceptions. Battle of Midway is a RAN sire line/Nortern Dancer dam sire and that's been a winning Belmont combo. He's got a running style conducive for a Belmont upset. He certainly has the pedigree with 44 dosage points including 17 Classic, 2 Solid, and 1 Professional. Court Dress in tail female (think Charismatic and Deputy Minister). Sometimes the Peterpan winner mixes things up there so that race is worth watching this weekend if you're looking for the next Tonalist.

letswastemoney
05-10-2017, 03:41 PM
This might be a new era where the Preakness pace matches or surpasses the Derby pace. I think the Preakness goes too fast early on and sets it up for a closer.

TheGarMan
05-10-2017, 05:22 PM
This might be a new era where the Preakness pace matches or surpasses the Derby pace. I think the Preakness goes too fast early on and sets it up for a closer.


That was certainly the case last year.....

Nyquist & Awesome Speed went out in 22 and change..

I don't mind a flaming barbeque on the front end, if I have a "closer" in my pocket

PowerUpPaynter
05-10-2017, 06:14 PM
This might be a new era where the Preakness pace matches or surpasses the Derby pace. I think the Preakness goes too fast early on and sets it up for a closer.

based on? just curious - not even sure that would matter to AD. Although im not a fan of the horse he breaks fantastically and can use his tactile speed to put him in a nice spot then slow up a bit if need be, if horses are going to run off in front of him I think he can sit back a little bit if need be then blast thru in the stretch. I doubt he runs off like Nyquist.

CincyHorseplayer
05-10-2017, 07:38 PM
If we get a fast track I think we will get a better sense of the talent in this field. AD ran a great race but on that pummeled of a track many did not run anywhere near their best race. I'm going into the Preakness with the same thought I had last Saturday morning=we will get to see most of these horses face each other for the first time. They really didn't on Derby day. They faced a mud puddle first.

The Biscuit
05-11-2017, 09:59 AM
Baffert says no way AD loses in the Preakness ... he usually stays quiet in his views , on races is what I hear .... just an fyi .... For me it means nothing ...imo ...

Pletcher 0-8 in Preakness ... bit interesting ...

Always Dreaming…. Odds 2-1 …Female Family /4-o ….There has never been an exact family match of 4-o that has finished in the Top 4 since 1985 / 0- 124 possible spots …BUT Family #4 has won the Preakness 3 Times / Placed 1 Time / Show 4 Times / 4th spot 2 Times …which comes out to 10/124 possible spots in the Top 4 Finishes of 8 % chance ….


Bit of personal research ... just interesting is all ...

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 11:13 AM
Baffert says no way AD loses in the Preakness ... he usually stays quiet in his views , on races is what I hear .... just an fyi .... For me it means nothing ...imo ...

Pletcher 0-8 in Preakness ... bit interesting ...

Always Dreaming…. Odds 2-1 …Female Family /4-o ….There has never been an exact family match of 4-o that has finished in the Top 4 since 1985 / 0- 124 possible spots …BUT Family #4 has won the Preakness 3 Times / Placed 1 Time / Show 4 Times / 4th spot 2 Times …which comes out to 10/124 possible spots in the Top 4 Finishes of 8 % chance ….


Bit of personal research ... just interesting is all ...



Didnt American Phoarah break some type of an 0 for... with the Storm Cat line... Those stats are way over rated

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 11:28 AM
Baffert says no way AD loses in the Preakness ... he usually stays quiet in his views , on races is what I hear .... just an fyi .... For me it means nothing ...imo ...


Where did you see the Baffert remarks?

Guess those 2 guys get along pretty well considering they are the clear cut top 2. Pletcher was the first guy to congratulate Baffert after the Triple Crown.



https://twitter.com/mackenziejanek/status/607522896660021248

The Biscuit
05-11-2017, 12:26 PM
Didnt American Phoarah break some type of an 0 for... with the Storm Cat line... Those stats are way over rated


Like I stated bro ...


Bit of personal research ... just interesting is all ...


Just throwing it out there ...not that I support the find ...

The Biscuit
05-11-2017, 12:27 PM
Where did you see the Baffert remarks?

Guess those 2 guys get along pretty well considering they are the clear cut top 2. Pletcher was the first guy to congratulate Baffert after the Triple Crown.



https://twitter.com/mackenziejanek/status/607522896660021248




Heard it on Sirius radio ... Steve Byk ..... fyi

Julz
05-11-2017, 12:35 PM
Not really. Numbers don't lie. Pharoah was an anomaly because he raced against such a bad crop. He did beat tale of verve in the Preakness and lost to keen ice, but he was a good horse. I think that there are specific patters more times than not, however there are always outliers.

The Biscuit
05-11-2017, 01:00 PM
Not really. Numbers don't lie. Pharoah was an anomaly because he raced against such a bad crop. He did beat tale of verve in the Preakness and lost to keen ice, but he was a good horse. I think that there are specific patters more times than not, however there are always outliers.



Bro .... I feel like patterns are often not taken seriously when capping ... I know very little about pedigree's ....all I'm looking for is patterns ... along with my normal capping skills in which are very much below adequate with this forum , I'm sure .... thx for the support...

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 02:53 PM
Not really. Numbers don't lie. Pharoah was an anomaly because he raced against such a bad crop. He did beat tale of verve in the Preakness and lost to keen ice, but he was a good horse. I think that there are specific patters more times than not, however there are always outliers.

Frosted, Dortmund, and at the time firing line were good horses... Bolo turned into a decent horse albeit at different race types, Danzig Moon would of been a good one - (R.I.P.), Mubtaahij is ok.

The constant shots you take at American Pharoah are pretty uncool and far fetched. This crop will end up being 100 times worse than the 2015 crop.

Dortmund & Frosted > Always Dreaming. yup I said it... :headbanger:

f2tornado
05-11-2017, 03:21 PM
Frosted, Dortmund, and at the time firing line were good horses... Bolo turned into a decent horse albeit at different race types, Danzig Moon would of been a good one - (R.I.P.), Mubtaahij is ok.

The constant shots you take at American Pharoah are pretty uncool and far fetched. This crop will end up being 100 times worse than the 2015 crop.

Dortmund & Frosted > Always Dreaming. yup I said it... :headbanger:

2015 was pretty bad. It seemed like half the Derby field would have qualified for nw-2 conditions. I do think AP had many things bounce his way throughout that year but otherwise won't touch the discussion. Dortmund is garbage beyond 9F. Frosted not much better. AD already won three 9+ in a row. I suspect the 2017 crew will ultimately be a good one

PowerUpPaynter
05-11-2017, 03:35 PM
OK maybe im a LITTLE over the top on my Frosted/Dortman comparison but taking shots at the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years is laughable.... Always Dreaming should never be mentioned in the same sentence as American Pharoah. That would be INSANE! At the same point in Pharoahs career he had like 5 100 plus beyers.

letswastemoney
05-11-2017, 05:04 PM
based on? just curious - not even sure that would matter to AD. Although im not a fan of the horse he breaks fantastically and can use his tactile speed to put him in a nice spot then slow up a bit if need be, if horses are going to run off in front of him I think he can sit back a little bit if need be then blast thru in the stretch. I doubt he runs off like Nyquist.This year, we had the speedier Royal Mo lose out on a spot to the deep closer Sonneteer. I'm not sure how that happened, especially since Sonneteer is a maiden.

Now Royal Mo is giving the Preakness a go. I'm thinking scenarios like that might happen more often over the years.

Julz
05-11-2017, 09:51 PM
My point had nothing to do with Always Dreaming. I never compared him to Pharoah. I don't even like always dreaming and will try to beat him again. I was saying that the triple crown should be reserved for all time greats, and it's just my opinion he wasn't. He was a great horse. Just not an all timer. Crop was bad, and beating tale of verve, losing to keen ice, and winning a breeders cup that had no runners doesn't constitute all time greatness to me. Always dreaming never entered the equation. I stated a horse like arrogate breaking 150 year old track records and trouncing older great horses is worthy of triple crown greatness. And right back at ya 🤘

arw629
05-12-2017, 12:22 AM
My point had nothing to do with Always Dreaming. I never compared him to Pharoah. I don't even like always dreaming and will try to beat him again. I was saying that the triple crown should be reserved for all time greats, and it's just my opinion he wasn't. He was a great horse. Just not an all timer. Crop was bad, and beating tale of verve, losing to keen ice, and winning a breeders cup that had no runners doesn't constitute all time greatness to me. Always dreaming never entered the equation. I stated a horse like arrogate breaking 150 year old track records and trouncing older great horses is worthy of triple crown greatness. And right back at ya 🤘

I agree with your comments....I thought his ky derby was his best race but his classic win might have been the weakest classic field of all time. I wish Liam's Map had taken him on

arw629
05-12-2017, 12:24 AM
As far as making the statement in May that this is a weak crop of 3 year olds is asinine. It's like assessing an NFL team a draft grade the day after the draft. How can you give a grade before you let the season pan out and see who actually got the best players?

PowerUpPaynter
05-12-2017, 08:05 AM
American Pharoah unfortunately had no say in who he raced, the fact that he raced a sub par crop in the Classic is maybe why he ran out of the screen on them and won by like 10 lengths or so with ease. None the less running the 8th fastest Classic ever (faster than arrogate, albeit close) and keep in mind the 8th fastest Belmont ever! 2nd fastest among Triple Crown winners.

Besides do you really think California Chhjrome would of beaten Pharoah in the classic? I love Chrome and can tell you not the slightest chance in hell.

PowerUpPaynter
05-12-2017, 04:06 PM
Interesting tidbit: Bob Baffert was on XBTV and he said he's been in all the post positions for the Derby and the 14 is the worst post to be in.

PowerUpPaynter
05-14-2017, 03:12 PM
https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/863816381279617024


certainly dont look like he has the energy he did before the derby

jocko699
05-14-2017, 04:19 PM
https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/863816381279617024


certainly dont look like he has the energy he did before the derby

PUP, very interesting!!

PowerUpPaynter
05-14-2017, 05:07 PM
https://twitter.com/PreaknessStakes/status/863845096961302528


Whats he supposed to say?

depalma113
05-14-2017, 09:26 PM
https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/863816381279617024


certainly dont look like he has the energy he did before the derby

You are kidding right?

They let that horse lift his head and he will explode. If anything that gallop shows just how much horse is still there.

He's still very much in Beast Mode.

PowerUpPaynter
05-14-2017, 09:48 PM
You are kidding right?

They let that horse lift his head and he will explode. If anything that gallop shows just how much horse is still there.

He's still very much in Beast Mode.

Hope your right, im gonna unload on him with a large WIN bet regardless.

Racey
05-14-2017, 10:38 PM
at 4-5 why bother

letswastemoney
05-14-2017, 11:22 PM
Maybe use the WIN bet as a saver, and have something more creative like Always Dreaming over a longshot.

señorclipclop
05-14-2017, 11:34 PM
https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/863816381279617024


certainly dont look like he has the energy he did before the derby

Looks a little odd to me. I don't know if it is the reins, but his head down like that doesn't seem like a good thing. Also, from a horse body language blog: "However, if his head goes down and stays down, with his eyes open staring wide, his mouth closed tight, and his ears stiff, the horse is sullen and pouty and has most likely been pushed too hard."

depalma113
05-15-2017, 07:30 AM
Looks a little odd to me. I don't know if it is the reins, but his head down like that doesn't seem like a good thing. Also, from a horse body language blog: "However, if his head goes down and stays down, with his eyes open staring wide, his mouth closed tight, and his ears stiff, the horse is sullen and pouty and has most likely been pushed too hard."

Talk about taking something completely out of context.

Are you betting real money based on quotes you get about a horse standing in a pen versus a horse working in draw reins?

PowerUpPaynter
05-15-2017, 11:27 AM
Energy level up today. Exactly what I wanted to see. There is no way Classic Empire turns the tables on him. I just don't see it. He beat CE by a wiiiiiiiiiide margin.

https://twitter.com/TracksideJennie/status/864103715762032640

https://twitter.com/DRFGrening/status/864075632099151872

PaceAdvantage
05-15-2017, 12:32 PM
at 4-5 why botherI don't understand people who think this horse is going to be odds-on in the Preakness. Maybe I'm wrong, and I'll be the first to admit it Saturday night, but I don't think so.

reckless
05-15-2017, 03:15 PM
I don't understand people who think this horse is going to be odds-on in the Preakness. Maybe I'm wrong, and I'll be the first to admit it Saturday night, but I don't think so.

Mike, even if you are 'wrong' and he goes off at even money or less, there are still exactas, the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double, pick 3s-4s, etc., out there to extract some value.

And, if you don't like the Derby winner, great... the people that don't like him want him to be 4-5, no?

Sunday Silence
05-16-2017, 03:02 AM
AD may turn out to be a better horse. But the "wide margin" is sort of thrown out the window when the horse was slammed out of the gate, broke from the 3rd most dreaded 14 hole, etc. AD got a perfect trip, CE did not. That could change. And I picked AD to win the Derby. I do think there is a small chance that AD regresses off the short rest while CE may move forward. They've had different paths to the Preakness.

The Biscuit
05-16-2017, 01:25 PM
No horse from Female Family exact match of 4-o had won or even finished in the Top 4 in the Derby since 1985 ...

Always Dreaming did this year ... won Derby

Same for Preakness ... No Female family of exact match of 4-o has ever won or finished in Top 4 spots since 1985...

Now there have been horses who finished in Top 4 form the Female Family #4 just not an exact match of 4-o ....


2 big challengers in Preakness carry the Female Family 4 as well but both Hence and Classic Empire carry the 4-m ....

Results from exact Female Family of 4-m since 1985 ...in Preakness

classic empire / hence 4-m / exact match 2 wins
1 show 1 in fourth
Family 4 all together 3 wins 1 place 4 shows 2 in fourth

Probably more useless info I monitor ...but it's a small hobby of mine ...


I personally will be on Classic Empire in this race , along with Gunnevera and AD on top in my gimmicks ...

:headbanger: