the best horse won

[dilanesp]

He duplicated his excellent Florida Derby. Congrats to Pletcher.

[Tom]

Terrible crop.
Both horses and riders! :lol:

So many stupid rides.....where do you begin?

[Rex Phinney]

What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.

[dilanesp]

What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.

Great lesson in statistical variance for horseplayers. Something like 5 favorites in a row, but 26 consecutive favorites lost in the 1980's-2000's and the favorite did well in the 1970's.

Don't believe in "trends" produced by 20 races or something.

[thespaah]

He duplicated his excellent Florida Derby. Congrats to Pletcher.

I concur.

[SuperPickle]

While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.

I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.

[fmazur]

Fortunately for him, there aren't any Arrogates to beat.

[SuperPickle]

Fortunately for him, there aren't any Arrogates to beat.


At the moment he's certainly the tallest midget in the group.

[thaskalos]

While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.

I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.

I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.

[v j stauffer]

What is that like 50 years in a row the favorite has won?

These merry go round races on dirt are getting old. I don't know what they need todo to these tracks to change it but it's awful. It eliminates any strategy from the races just go to the front and watch the track carry the speed.

Yep. Just like the Oaks yesterday.

[dilanesp]

I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.

Agreed. He is the likely winner of the Preakness at 3 to 5.

[n.c]

the trifecta had paid??any guess????...had him at the third leg:bang:

[Bigadam119]

While he was best today this is the type of horse people who make a profit in this game love to best against.

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop) combined with Pletcher's lack of foundness for the Preakness he's a play against as the favorite next time.

I mean it's hard to get excited about a horse who tripped out and still only ran 2:03 and a half.

Horses can improve rapidly but right now he's probably 20+ lengths slower than Arrogate.

I've heard the "tripped out" now for two races. Isn't the saying really good horses rarely get a bad trip?

[EasyGoer89]

Don't all the outside speeds and pressers come 'crashing down' on the inner lanes runners? Where was everyone from the outside? We're the outer paths in the homestretch so 'dead' that nobody could reach early?

[pandy]

Once again the actual final time proved to be a factor in handicapping the Derby. The most important prep races are the 9 furlong races. Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby in 1:47.2, a fast time, and the fastest 9 furlong prep race. I recall the 2015 Florida Derby won by Materiality, who unfortunately passed away, in a very slow time. The Beyer speed figure for the 2015 Florida Derby was a very strong 110, even thought the race was very slow, 1:52.3. The thinking was that the time was slow because of the track, but the time was slow because the horses were slow. The 2015 Florida Derby proved to be a negative key race.

As I've said before, the actual fractions and final times do matter.

[Fager Fan]

Five favs in row won the Derby. The fav has won the Derby every year since they implemented the new points system which took out sprinter speed. The first TC winner after a 4 decade drought came after the new point system. They said during the telecast that if AD won, it'd be the first time in the history of the race 5 favs in row won.

Has CD unwittingly changed the race, with requirements or a system no other race in the world has which targets keeping top speed out of the race, and is it for the better?

[upthecreek]

Did i read the chart right AD paid $4.40 in pool 1 and $7 in pool 2? But you got $11.40 Derby Day? Or am I a knucklehead?

[arw629]

That race was so boring. It felt like I was watching an Aqueduct Inner Route race where there was a gold rail. My first thought after the derby was that the Conquest MO Money team had to be sick they didn't supplement there horse bc with the inside bias I think they would have gotten to the front and never looked back. I hope Conquest MO Money heads to Baltimore ...

[pandy]

I would tend to agree that the best horse won, but, Classic Empire had a rough trip and raced gamely.

[stlseeeek]

best horse?

No, right horse for right surface. And i wouldn't call him anything special, he was literally in a wheel chair crawling home.

And the horses out wide, who made up ground are all possible bet backs. The outside was a swamp, and the inside was golden. It was night and day between them.

[pandy]

best horse?

No, right horse for right surface. And i wouldn't call him anything special, he was literally in a wheel chair crawling home.

And the horses out wide, who made up ground are all possible bet backs. The outside was a swamp, and the inside was golden. It was night and day between them.

I felt the same way, horses racing in outside paths seemed to have trouble accelerating all day. If wasn't really a speed favoring track but if a horse could get to the lead along one of the inside paths the horses rallying wide seemed to be at disadvantage down the stretch.

[dilanesp]

Five favs in row won the Derby. The fav has won the Derby every year since they implemented the new points system which took out sprinter speed. The first TC winner after a 4 decade drought came after the new point system. They said during the telecast that if AD won, it'd be the first time in the history of the race 5 favs in row won.

Has CD unwittingly changed the race, with requirements or a system no other race in the world has which targets keeping top speed out of the race, and is it for the better?

Sample size. It doesn't prove anything more than 5 favorites in a row at the Breeders' Cup or any card full of full fields would.

[classhandicapper]

I have mixed feelings about his performance. The fractions were very fast (as expected) relative to the final time on that slow track, but the race did not totally collapse even though he was right on the pace and they came home slowly.

Either he ran a HUGE race or the slop prevented many of the closers from running their A race. I'd be more apt to think he ran a huge race if a few more horses had at least picked up Battle of Midway who was also in the mix early. But it seems to me that a lot of high quality closers simply did not run their best race in a race that was setup for closers.

[rsetup]

I have mixed feelings about his performance. The fractions were very fast (as expected) relative to the final time on that slow track, but the race did not totally collapse even though he was right on the pace and they came home slowly.

Either he ran a HUGE race or the slop prevented many of the closers from running their A race. I'd be more apt to think he ran a huge race if a few more horses had at least picked up Battle of Midway who was also in the mix early. But it seems to me that a lot of high quality closers simply did not run their best race in a race that was setup for closers.


Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.

The closers were not compromised but the chasers, primarily Practical Joke (and Gormley) were. And significantly, I think. Classic Empires' race was not as good as it looked, as trouble had him in a closing rather than chasing position. Too bad, as I was counting on him to provide some pressure and totally collapse the race.

P.S. Chart the race and read off all the needed info rather than continuing to work too hard.

[dilanesp]

Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.

The closers were not compromised but the chasers, primarily Practical Joke (and Gormley) were. And significantly, I think. Classic Empires' race was not as good as it looked, as trouble had him in a closing rather than chasing position. Too bad, as I was counting on him to provide some pressure and totally collapse the race.

P.S. Chart the race and read off all the needed info rather than continuing to work too hard.

I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?

[mountainman]

I touted the winner hard in an interview thurs with our local NBC affiliate. Having believed beforehand that the supposed "parity" in the field was more apparent than real, I thought the winner ran tons the best. The obvious strategy- to send from the gate and avoid traffic in a huge field- resulted in racing inside a hard- sent foe on rapid splits. With the consequent imperative to not get outfooted and hold onto the rail path, most horses (even exceptional ones) probably would have folded. But this bunch could have gone three laps, and nobody was passing the winner.

I'm all in on this horse and predict a sweep. A big key will be the tractability he displayed in his final prep race.

[SuperPickle]

I have a hard time believing that the "profitable players" are lining up in order to bet against Always Dreaming in the Preakness. There ARE other races for the winning players to turn to for their profit...you know.

Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.

[dilanesp]

Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.

A lot of Derby winners win the Preakness. I think this is an inaccurate description of what happened yesterday.

But if you can beat him you will win some money.

[JustRalph]

I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?

I think the chart said "dream trip on the rail"

[castaway01]

Did i read the chart right AD paid $4.40 in pool 1 and $7 in pool 2? But you got $11.40 Derby Day? Or am I a knucklehead?

Always Dreaming was in the field for the first two pools, so you not only got him but every other horse that wasn't listed 1 to 23. That's why the field was 6-5 in the first pool and 5-2 in the second pool.

[pandy]

I was going to say something similar. Looking At Lee is a powerful argument against the ability of the closers here. If it was so horrible for closers, how did an absolute plodder hit the board like that?

I was wondering the same thing, however, Looking At Lee stayed along the inside part of the track most of the race. Even the chart comment reads that he "was skimming the rail."The closers that rallied wide may have been hindered by the track condition.

[thaskalos]

Yes I'm saying sharp and profitable handicappers historically play against a horse that essentially went wire-to-wire on a golden rail and speed biased track coupled with his top competitors all colliding with each other at the break.

IMO...the "sharp and profitable handicappers" remain "sharp and profitable" because they don't do ANYTHING "historically". Every race has a unique nature...and has to be looked at as a solitary event -- with unique characteristics. The same "perfect trip" argument against Always Dreaming was proposed after his Florida Derby victory...but this didn't prevent the "perfect trip" from materializing again in the Derby.

The most important determination to make ISN'T in criticizing the "perfect trip" that a particular horse enjoyed in a given race. It's in determining whether or not substantial factors exist which could prevent this "perfect trip" from occurring again NEXT TIME.

[dilanesp]

IMO...the "sharp and profitable handicappers" remain "sharp and profitable" because they don't do ANYTHING "historically". Every race has a unique nature...and has to be looked at as a solitary event -- with unique characteristics. The same "perfect trip" argument against Always Dreaming was proposed after his Florida Derby victory...but this didn't prevent the "perfect trip" from materializing again in the Derby.

The most important determination to make ISN'T in criticizing the "perfect trip" that a particular horse enjoyed in a given race. It's in determining whether or not substantial factors exist which could prevent this "perfect trip" from occurring again NEXT TIME.

This is a very good post.

Seizing control of a race may be a "perfect trip", but it is also what dominant horses do.

[caper]

Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.

[SuperPickle]

Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.

And Pletcher switched bits and exercise riders which frankly is ballsy this close to the Derby.

He did something radical and was rewarded.

[forced89]

In my opinion Classic Empire was the best horse in the race. He got totally wiped out at the start and rallied behind the big field to get up for 4th. The winner had a trouble free trip.

[pandy]

In my opinion Classic Empire was the best horse in the race. He got totally wiped out at the start and rallied behind the big field to get up for 4th. The winner had a trouble free trip.


Hopefully they'll both race in the Preakness. The Preakness is becoming a joke, so many horses skip it.

[LottaKash]

Seizing control of a race may be a "perfect trip", but it is also what dominant horses do.

Plus, as an added bonus, Always Dreaming and Johnny Velasquez came out of the Derby the most "Clean of all"...

While exchanging congrats by other Jockeys to JV, the contrast of Mud Caked Silks to the ultra Clean Silks JV, was a real eye opener, when viewing the contrast...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.

That is part of the reason I threw AD out..much to my dismay...I am beginning to learn not to trust both the hype and the doubts beforehand...I really think by listening to a lot of opinions, we form biases that work to "fix" our future bets into locked patterns...by forming our opinions too soon, we lock ourselves into what we BELIEVED beforehand instead of delaying until more info is available...also we must learn to think and trust OUR OWN INSIGHTS instead of listening to others all the time...

[ultracapper]

That is part of the reason I threw AD out..much to my dismay...I am beginning to learn not to trust both the hype and the doubts beforehand...I really think by listening to a lot of opinions, we form biases that work to "fix" our future bets into locked patterns...by forming our opinions too soon, we lock ourselves into what we BELIEVED beforehand instead of delaying until more info is available...also we must learn to think and trust OUR OWN INSIGHTS instead of listening to others all the time...

The moment you start "liking" a horse while handicapping, you'll start making a case for it. I stay as impartial as possible as long as possible.

[depalma113]

When you factor in his trip today (slow pace on a golden rail in the slop)

State of Honor finished last while setting the slow pace on the supposed golden rail.

Slow, pace horses on golden rails don't finish last.

[depalma113]

Every god damned "expert" I read was talking about how much energy this horse was expending and how he was acting up all the time. Wasn't settling in to the new surroundings, ect. Jesus.

I told everyone to ignore it.

The horse was a loaded powder keg, he wasn't a hard to train handful.

In fact he was trained to race of the van. All he did was try to run fast the first time he stepped on Churchill after the ship. Just like he had done in every one of his races this year.

[Fager Fan]

And Pletcher switched bits and exercise riders which frankly is ballsy this close to the Derby.

He did something radical and was rewarded.

I didn't hear that he switched bits. He put on draw reins and another exercise rider (guessing one experienced with using draw reins).

[classhandicapper]

Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.

My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.



I think we actually agree.

I am very interested in where various horses came from in the field, but I am also interested in how many front runners were in the race, where horses finished relative to my estimation of their ability going in, and the fractions of the race.

The race was loaded with on the pace horses (some that figured to be compromised) and the fractions were unquestionably fast relative to the final time on that slow track. Typically, in an somewhat evenly matched field like this, the closers WOULD HAVE made up some ground in that slow last quarter and been more threatening. That they didn't is exactly the point I was trying to make in my post.

I guess there are lot of possible reason for that. In a big field like that everyone gets full of mud, several lost a lot of ground, some may not have liked the track, etc.. That's all speculation. My point is that given the fractions, there were several horses that in my estimation should have at least been able to pick up Battle of Midway who was right on the pace initially and then just off it, but they did not despite the fact that he was tiring badly.

The only closer that really even threatened was, as you said, Lookin at Lee who saved a ton of ground. IMO, he was not one of the highest quality closers in the race. That's says something.

[onefast99]

I didn't hear that he switched bits. He put on draw reins and another exercise rider (guessing one experienced with using draw reins).
You are correct as noted by the NBC crew on two different occasions.

[mountainman]

IMO...the "sharp and profitable handicappers" remain "sharp and profitable" because they don't do ANYTHING "historically". Every race has a unique nature...and has to be looked at as a solitary event -- with unique characteristics. The same "perfect trip" argument against Always Dreaming was proposed after his Florida Derby victory...but this didn't prevent the "perfect trip" from materializing again in the Derby.

The most important determination to make ISN'T in criticizing the "perfect trip" that a particular horse enjoyed in a given race. It's in determining whether or not substantial factors exist which could prevent this "perfect trip" from occurring again NEXT TIME.

Sharp Post. At what point did clean, victorious trips earned by virtue of tactical speed, tractability, and finishing kick become suspect??? It's somehow become fashionable among "experts" to dismiss stalking scores as some inevitable (and undeserved) consequence of sitting close to the speed(s), while getting first run on the closers. News flash: Thats what good horses DO. And VERY good ones do it REPEATEDLY.

Running styles, trips, race-flow, and bias are all big parts of my handicapping, but the contest nowadays to see who can burrow more deeply into the minutiae of thoroughbred voyages has, in some cases, become an illusionary, self-created world conducive to arcane, irrelevant observations inapplicable to a horse's subsequent starts.

[cj]

Five favs in row won the Derby. The fav has won the Derby every year since they implemented the new points system which took out sprinter speed. The first TC winner after a 4 decade drought came after the new point system. They said during the telecast that if AD won, it'd be the first time in the history of the race 5 favs in row won.

Has CD unwittingly changed the race, with requirements or a system no other race in the world has which targets keeping top speed out of the race, and is it for the better?

To be fair the very first year featured and insane pace and set it up for Orb, a horse that turned out to be not all that. It isn't like horses are walking on the lead either. The pace is generally still pretty darn fast.

I'd personally rather the best horses win than get horses like Mine that Bird and Giacomo.

[cj]

Did i read the chart right AD paid $4.40 in pool 1 and $7 in pool 2? But you got $11.40 Derby Day? Or am I a knucklehead?

He was part of the mutuel field, right?

[upthecreek]

Especially like the one on Hence



https://twitter.com/OptixEQ/status/861974186142474241

[upthecreek]

He was part of the mutuel field, right?
I have no idea but I think he was listed as #24 , so your probably right

[classhandicapper]

Always Dreaming breezed this morning (7/1).

I'm very interested to see what this horse can do going forward. I'm in the camp that thinks his Derby was quite good and that he went off form in the Preakness and not that he got a golden rail setup in the Derby and the Preakness exposed him.