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View Full Version : Dosage and the Curse against Battle of Midway


Blenheim
05-06-2017, 02:06 PM
I’m quite looking forward to this running of the Derby. This is kind of a winded post, so I wouldn’t bother readin’ it.
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I’ve been following this Smart Strike for colt some time and he has proved to be an interesting study. His form as a three-year-old suggests had he raced as a two-year-old he may have been an elite runner at the top this class. As it is, he has done most everythin’ asked of him and the Derby will be an interesting test of the Quinn concept of “potential class”.

With respect to Dosage, he has points in all five groups, AWD 8.50 furlongs. He has double-digit representation in the Brilliant, Intermediate and Classic groups and has representation in the Solid and Professional groups with 10-14-17-2-1 (44) DI 2.83, CD 0.68. I’ve seen the double-digits in the first three, Orb had it with 11-12-15-0-2; don’t believe I’ve seen it coupled with points in all five. Some years ago in a different forum, I asked Roman about double-digits in the first three and its meaning w/respect to speed over distance; I didn’t get a reply which was unusual. I figured it was one of them thare confidences.

Best I could find on it was in his latest book where he discusses Spend a Buck 14-15-18-1-0 DI 3.80, CD 0.88, he writes:

1985 Horse of the Year Spend a Buck, b.c., 1982 (Buckaroo-Belle de Jour, by Speak John) was a tepid second choice in the 1985 Kentucky Derby because of concerns about his on-the-lead racing style and the tremendous speed he had exhibited in earlier races at two and three. As it turned out, he established himself as a classic horse of the highest order with a facile wire-to-wire romp, winning by 5 ¼ lengths in 2:00.1, third fastest in Derby history to that time behind only Secretariat and Northern Dancer. His six-furlong fraction of 1:09.3 remains the standard. He did this while defeating one of the strongest Derby fields in history that included two future Breeders’ Cup Classic winners, the future Preakness Stakes record setter, and the previous year’s two-year-old champion.


When I read that, I reviewed the 1985 Derby video and since then I’ve kept ta’ hearin’ Batagglia’s callin’ in that race, “Spend a Buck by five”. Spend a Buck 14-15-18-1-0 DI 3.80 CD 0.88. Battle of Midway 10-14-17-2-1 DI 2.83 CD 0.68.

I was thinkin’ maybe I’ve got a live one here; he’ll carry his speed over the distance. I reviewed the videos of his races, first race 1:09 flat on a fast, wet sealed; they found he didn’t like to chase in the second, got him back to his front runnin’ style in the third and saw he didn’t flinch when pinched on the rail in the Santa Anita where he showed stamina, endurance and courage in the final yards. I followed his works, textbook: 4 in 48.2; 5 in 100.3; 6 in 1:13.2. No other horse shows these definitive works. The question presents itself: Does he have the endurance the S and P points suggest? He’s got fresh legs, gets the perfect post w/the leading rider at SA w/ Hall of Famer Hollendorfer who said,“Every race takes something out of a horse, or puts something into him. Besides, the horse is only going to learn how to lose if you keep running him over his head or at the wrong distance”.

Looks to me like judgin’ by his works, the SA put somethin’ in this hoss’. If I catch a wet fast conveyor surface w/some fresh legs, dead fit w/a perfect post w/a live jock w/little inside speed and I get the lead . . . OH MAN, IS THIS GONNA BE A GOOD ONE! :ThmbUp:


Yea, yea, yeah, no foundation, no seasoning, not emotionally fit, he’ll get spooked by the crowd, no horse since Apollo, 135 years, the curse n’all and everythin’, I’ve read it. I get it. Can’t argue w/it and I no llusions bout’ it - no doubt sure gonna’ will be tough to beat them numbers and all them statistics and stuff. Practically speakin’, I think like f2Tornado wrote, “Classic Empire is the class of the field”, and I agree, gotta beat Classic Empire and I figure Gunnevera is gonna’ come runnin’ too. Them tree, final furlong.


Anyways, enuf is enuf and that show is enuf. Sure was fun handicappin’ this one. Had fun writin’ this post too. What really made workin’ on this one so terribly interesting and cursedly wonderful is, and I just found this out the other day when I reviewed the extended pedigree of Battle of Midway, I found Buckaroo not too far back on the bottom side. Buckaroo was the sire of Spend a Buck.

Hey guys, best of racin’ luck. Thanks Doc. Hopin’ for a fast, wet, sealed.

:11:
:14::11::10:

ArlJim78
05-06-2017, 06:08 PM
I like him :11: and think there is great value, especially in a year were as I perceive it the margin from top to bottom is very thin.

Blenheim
05-06-2017, 11:03 PM
Fun race to watch. It was everything I thought it would be. Thought I had a shot at it as they turned for home . . .

Congratulations to the connections of Always Dreaming, sweet ride by Johnny V and an outstanding training job by Todd P. That 59.3 last work was a sharp one.

Hopefully these two will see who is best on a dry fast track come the Black-Eyed Susans.