View Full Version : A small case for Sonneteer

05-06-2017, 11:30 AM
Hello, guys. I'm new here. I've read many of the posts and found them very helpful. One of you did a spreadsheet showing the final 3/8's and 1/8 of the contestants. I'd like to thank that guy for saving me a ton of time. So, I'd like to pay it forward with what I found with the research. I'd like to thank Stanley Caris for his excellent Handicapping the Triple Crown system. He has turned me on to final fractions and looking more into prefigured. I strongly suggest getting his system. Using his system, I landed on Sonneteer. This Maiden, who I know many out there feel should not even be in this race, could take the Derby. We saw in the past how owners put up the supplemental money to get their horses in the Derby just to say they had a horse run. All the while, throwing us handicappers into a tizzy wondering if these dogs could ruin our legitimate picks or at least screw up up our exotics, if they managed to grab place, show or fourth.

Sonneteer is a colt who appears to be on the uptick. Looking at his speed figures, he looks too damned slow to even have a chance here. However, looking at his F 3/8 and F 1/8, he came up with a sharp 36 3/5 and 11 4/5ths, respectively. I know, Mr. Caris has pointed out in the past, a horse scoring horse sharp fractions means nothing, if he finished too far back to make a difference. While, Sonneteer finished fourth to Classic Empire, I take into account how this young man moved into two grade 2 races and did pretty well, considering he has not won a race yet. Unless, I am wrong, he made the list according to Mr. Caris' system. I won't divulge any further into how the list is comprised. I don't want to compromise Mr. Caris' sale of his list.

The latest issue of ATM features Mr. Caris' new rule regarding Kentucky Derby horses who ran fast fractions in their first half and finished their last five furlongs strong. While, Sonneteer did not qualify on all 6 of his rules, he did well on the first two. That and all of the other data leads me to give this guy an even chance to get there. Can he win? Anything is possible. I think he can be in the money, if not fourth. A defnite exotics play.

I hope this first post was not long winded. I just wanted to throw my hat in the ring. For you hard core handicappers, have mercy on me. Lol. You might be screaming, what the heck I must be thinking. Be gentle when you respond.

Thomas Roulston
05-06-2017, 12:00 PM
But with a DI 5.00, Sonneteer reminds me of Dr. Valeri (1978) and Rexson's Hope (1984) - deep closers with sprint pedigrees.

Sonneteer might, however, explode at a big price in the King's Bishop the way Capo Bastone, another closer with a sprint pedigree, did in 2013.

05-06-2017, 12:15 PM
He's one to watch after the Derby.

05-06-2017, 12:17 PM
Not crazy at all, he was closing on one of the probable favorites in a Grade I last race at 1-1/8. Will the pace be compromised today by track conditions? Looking for long shots, he made my list also, but a notorious slow starter.

Thomas Roulston
05-06-2017, 01:46 PM
The lifetime best Beyer in the entire field is 102, and only three have ever run 100 or above - so I guess it can be argued that he doesn't have much to beat.