View Full Version : R11 G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (5/6 Churchill)

Lemon Drop Husker
05-06-2017, 03:19 AM
Wow. What a race. This field is loaded for bear.

One can make an honest case for nearly all 12 entries in this G1 classic turf race.

:1: Kasaqui: Hasn't ran many bad races, but hasn't ran many winning races either. 10 times in 24 career races he has been the bridesmaid. Hard to ever knock his effort or want to, but may be just a bit short of others in here.

:2: Divisidero: 2 for 2 at the track and 2 for 3 at the distance. Tough tough entry that has bested some rivals in here. Maybe not at the top of his game, but Leparoux is on board, like in his last, and could move him forward again to be right in the thick of things. The defending champ can't be discarded lightly.

:3: Oscar Nominated: Performance or Nominated, I hope I'm not the only one that gets these 2 confused all the time, and to make matters worse, the "other" runs 2 races prior to this one. :bang: A good horse, but this is a loaded field of legit G1 turf runners. Definitely worthy of an entry and try, just don't see him stacking up when all is said and done.

:4: Conquest Panthera: We all hear the term "lightly raced", well this is your very poster child of lightly raced. 5YO with 7 career races including 3 in the last 5 months. 1 race in '16. 1 race in '15 and 2 in '14. Casse and team have been patient with this one, and he looks like he is starting to come into his own. That was a game race in the G1 Makers Mile last out, and he may well have been the best that day to only finish 3rd by a neck. Runs the furthest he has ever run in a race today, so that has to be considered. Serious contender in my opinion.

:5: Kaigun: Certainly not in his best form finishing a disappointing 4th in an allowance race last out. Then again, Divisidero WAS in that field. Maybe his best races are behind him, but he can pop and be a nice exotics juicer.

:6: Bal a Bali: Rolling in off of a G1 win the Santa Anita Frank Kilgore turf mile. Beat a pretty good field in doing so with What a View and Bolo behind him. Has won 14 of 23 career races, but has only 1 second and 4 thirds to go along with it. An all or nothing sort? Seems to be, but has to be respected on the top end or any line of wagering. Training lights out since his win last out. Biggest question is that he has never won a race ran over a mile.

:7: World Approval: Pretty simple 'capping this guy. He'll get out, try to be on the lead after 6F or less and try to wall off the rest of the field to the wire. He has done that satisfactorily 7 times in 19 tries including a win last out. 6 for 8 in the Exacta including 4 wins at the distance. He'll never wow you, but he brings his lunch pail every time. I don't see him on top, but a definite exotics player.

:8: Beach Patrol: 4 races with FloGeaux and 4 Exacta finishes including a win in the G1 Secretariat. 2nd race out as a 4YO today, and I do love me some improving 4YOs like this one. Will likely be an underlay, so may be a tough one to bet unfortunately. Even at 3/1, he could well be a Win pool option.

:9: Enterprising: 8 straight board finishes including back to back wins. Has ran well on "good" footing including his win in his last. Biggest knock is this is easily the toughest field he has ever faced. Deserving of the chance, but is he ready?

:10: Flatlined: Likley the only entry in the field that really doesn't belong here. Even with that said, he did beat Divisidero at Gulfstream back in January, but he will need an even better effort than that to contend here. Really tough to see.

:11: Can'thelpbelieving: Hasn't seen the track since August of last year after what is likely his best career race. Love the confidence to bring him back in here among these. Has certainly ran races that are competitive with this field, but his layoff is maybe too tough to look past. A must see on the track.

:12: Ballagh Rocks: Here is yet another improving 4YO. Sure, he finished 4th in his last race, but was beaten by a mere 1/2 length while coming like a shot in the G1 Makers Mile. Really wish Lezcano stayed aboard, but so be it. With a 10/1 ML, I think this one has a real shot in here.

SUMMARY: You gotta split a lot of hairs in here to get your winner. I'm going primarily with 3 horses in here. :4: :8: :12:

:4: WP
:4::8::12: EX Box

05-06-2017, 05:25 PM
Agree with your assessment LDH. Tough one to figure. Here's my perspective:

In the 3 previous turf races at CD today, the FG shippers have run lights out. Swept the tri in race 5, solid 2nd as the lone speed (by a neck) in the 7th, and a 15/1 upset in the 9th (broke maiden at Kee first time on turf in last, but wintered at FG). So I'm boxing the :1::3::9: (all double-digit odds ML) with some WP cash on the :3:.

This may not be the best strategy, but worth a shot on Derby Day....:)

05-06-2017, 05:52 PM
:2::4::1: / :2::4::1::9: / ALL

05-06-2017, 06:09 PM

I think the pace might be faster than it looks on paper.

05-06-2017, 06:19 PM
:5:, Kaigun: hard to ignore his move last out. Usually disappoints but today might be the day at bomb odds.

:8:, Beach Patrol: the only horse that's gotten consistently worse trips than this one is Lady Eli. Geroux is always in a hurry and insists on wide, pace forcing trips. Sooner or later, Geroux ****s up and turns in a good ride.

12, Ballagh Rocks: some late interest last out. Should be right there

05-06-2017, 06:19 PM

05-06-2017, 06:25 PM
I will try the #11 and #12 to win and play them with the #2 and #8 in the exotics