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boys at tosconova
05-06-2017, 02:38 AM
handicrappin' the durty...presented by rick pitino's grammas pizza house


forget everything you know. handicrappin' the durty takes a scientific approach to winning.

this is simple. break down most horses who you think will win and don't play them to win. much like when i laid out how the joker could win the BG...everything almost happened except that he still didn't win.


look lee- 1 hole no chance. usually the deep closer that's itm isn't the one you think it will be.

thunder buddy- obv is on the short list because of the off track. not because of the horses not being good enough or the uae chitty track record.

fast and deadly- off track means he thinks he's on turf or synthetic. therefore his feet won't hurt like he's running needles. proved he doesn't need the lead.

always f'n dreamn- pletch won't win..40-1 futures don't win either..bounce coming after big effort..just how much of bounce we'll see

guilty your honor - found out he doesn't need the lead....goodie....seems like he'll screw many by hitting the board once again

george girvin - stalker with a foot problem. girvin didn't score many points when he was hurt either. shame they don;t put him on Injured reserve.

henceforth- obv cheap closers that win off a fast pace are a new wise guy thing. the wise guy horse never runs like u think

irat- now don't get me started. obv logic means an encore performance going further means he'll win bigger. do not discount

gunny bear- deep closers never reach. prolly finish 4th or 5th and be out finished by really crappy horses

midway massacre- slow and inexperienced, but most years being from cali means he's better. i'm sure he'll run big saving ground up close

son from trier- ahhhh..look at this lovely 1 run beast....obv a major player because the ones you think will hit the board never do. don't believe me just look at previous results.

j boyz from toscanova - with a name like that have to play him. all he need is a fast pace..and the jesus hotline told me it's roman's turn.

boardwalk empire - wasn't an overly impressive ark derby win but i'm sure he learned a lot from it being in tight. fast horse is prolly the one to beat.

whacknMckrackn- my sister went to school w/ a kid with the same last name. needless to say he just busted for doing exactly that in a place where he should not of done it. hence the nickname. can't get past seeing wilkes sly smilie. you know he scammed everyone last race. he won't this race. unleash the kracken

tapit it hard- another stiff job from the master himself. what would horse racing be without fixing or sandbagging races....would it not have been for that last race he could've easily been favorite........now nobody knows he's in the race. job well done. you should not be surprised to see jboy/mckrak and tapit all run big

mel gibson war cry - beat chit in the wood. and as one of my buddies pointed out at www.paceadvantage.com he has a chitty final brisnet lP. you don't have to tell me anymore. the only good wood is the kind in the morning..not the 0 for last 15 years horse race one

gormley- my son plays high school hockey. our goalies last name is this. needless to say he never played travel hockey and gives up too many goals. i can't place all the blame on him. the defense blows as well and the offense can't score.

the joker- ahhhh..the horse that started this fun in the BG but still couldn't win. been pretty solid but still couldn't beat irat. how on earth do you beat the kraken. even johnny depp couldn't.

dan patch- world hamp standardbred horse.....maybe the durty resorts back to complete unpredictability. and patches hits the board.

picks to come later.

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:49 AM
That's great! It's very Samuel Clemens-esque. Nicely done.

My plays to come later too but my big 4 are..

Irish War Cry

Gunnevera

McCraken

JBoysEcho

:5::9::16::19: second tier

:17:I said before the FOY that IWC could have done too much too fast and couldn't bet him at 1-1. HB was good but Wood was a public workout and was fast. Has the speed not to get lost in the jungle and can finish. I like. Price could be a big factor but major player.

:10:despite his half mile position his pace figures aren't dismal except in last after top out performance. That is a big finish for his dud race. I think the track will be drying out and catering to everybody. He can bring it.

:15: to follow your point he is sneaking up on this field. With the missed time and a prep I think he is ripe to pop.

:13: could be fool's gold but his last was a stronger than it looks performance. 2 back was a derby winning race.

The last 3 have a pattern I have seen from winners 3-4-5 years back. Their big race was the 2nd back race(in the 220 range) but had around a 200 intervening performance before a bounceback ala California Chrome, Orb, and I'll Have Another. Only the last 2 years have horses with the best last out performance on my route rating have won the derby.

:5: have to take my stand as too much too soon on this one or it will be as you said the "Finger Lickin Good Derby" chalk again and just another sorry derby if this one wins.

:19: is a joke and better be. 1 turn destiny IMO and better be!

Here's my route rating rating for this years Derby. Yes a lot of contenders but not trying to sell anything or be perfect. Will include the last 5 years in another post. Good luck Boys at Tosc!

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:51 AM
2017 Derby

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:52 AM
2016

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:53 AM
2015

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:54 AM
2014

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:56 AM
2013

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 06:57 AM
2012

The Biscuit
05-06-2017, 07:59 AM
2012


Great work bro ...thx for sharing !!

Have any idea why in 2012 Dullahan had a 175 number .... crazy low number for a show horse ?

Also ...only if you have available ... can you share the link that has this info , I would like to go back a few more years ....

Appreciate anything you can throw my way ...

The Biscuit
05-06-2017, 08:24 AM
2017 Derby


No Gormley ? Thunder ...being foreign ...I understand ..

Anything bro ?

CincyHorseplayer
05-06-2017, 01:18 PM
Great work bro ...thx for sharing !!

Have any idea why in 2012 Dullahan had a 175 number .... crazy low number for a show horse ?

Also ...only if you have available ... can you share the link that has this info , I would like to go back a few more years ....

Appreciate anything you can throw my way ...

No link. I did these myself! The numbers are what they are. If they weren't within a certain % I simply didn't put them up. Gormley had a 190 and a 185.