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VigorsTheGrey
05-05-2017, 10:23 PM
Sorry, I'm a tad late seeing the USTimeForm Early/ Late Pace Numbers in the DRF Racelines...Is there an explanation to how they are arrived at...? I saw a line today where a horse was vanned off or other last time and he still got numbers...does more than 1 race go into the figure....

How else can I use the new figures to point me to more winners..?

ultracapper
05-06-2017, 05:18 PM
Haha!

Basically, you're asking CJ to explain his life's work.

I'm sure he could give you the short, 2 sentence explanation, or the all encompassing, 4 volume manual.

I'll put the wise guy aside. Check out their website.

cj
05-06-2017, 05:26 PM
First off, it is TimeformUS. People really seem to struggle with that so the branding obviously could have been better!

http://www.drf.com/news/timeform-pace-ratings-now-drf-pps

See, even that article messed it up!

http://www.drf.com/news/qa-timeformuss-craig-milkowski-early-and-late-pace-ratings

VigorsTheGrey
05-07-2017, 12:43 AM
Thanks CJ...I was sort of baffled...for example in th Form dated May6, 2017 Santa Anita 10th Race...
#2 Double Touch has and Early of 55, Late of 105
# 7 Sharp Samurai has an Early of 97, Late of 76...

They both raced 1st and second in the same last race, and the final two calls they raced even with respect to one another, with neither gaining nor losing lengths on each other..I ask "how can this be...? Wouldn't they both have the same late rating if they ran even with respect to each other...?

Most horses exhibit a see-saw effect, with a higher early than late if speed types, and a higher late than early if closing type horses...but a higher late figure doesn't mean that a horse was moving faster in the late portions of the race, does it...

It gets a little confusing trying to sort the different ratings out...
First the speed rating and tied to that a track variant number. Then a Beyer Speed Figure. Then a speed bias symbol with 4 alternatives. Now TimeformUS Pace Ratings...So HOW does one use them collectively...? How would you suggest to approach analyzing these subsets of speed and pace...?

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2017, 01:27 AM
Thanks CJ...I was sort of baffled...for example in th Form dated May6, 2017 Santa Anita 10th Race...
#2 Double Touch has and Early of 55, Late of 105
# 7 Sharp Samurai has an Early of 97, Late of 76...

They both raced 1st and second in the same last race, and the final two calls they raced even with respect to one another, with neither gaining nor losing lengths on each other..I ask "how can this be...? Wouldn't they both have the same late rating if they ran even with respect to each other...?

Most horses exhibit a see-saw effect, with a higher early than late if speed types, and a higher late than early if closing type horses...but a higher late figure doesn't mean that a horse was moving faster in the late portions of the race, does it...

It gets a little confusing trying to sort the different ratings out...
First the speed rating and tied to that a track variant number. Then a Beyer Speed Figure. Then a speed bias symbol with 4 alternatives. Now TimeformUS Pace Ratings...So HOW does one use them collectively...? How would you suggest to approach analyzing these subsets of speed and pace...?The Early/Late ratings are based on the last four races....

Check out this page for an explanation:

https://timeformusblog.com/2013/12/30/running-style-and-earlylate-ratings-added-to-timeformus-pps/

pandy
05-07-2017, 08:12 AM
Thanks CJ...I was sort of baffled...for example in th Form dated May6, 2017 Santa Anita 10th Race...
#2 Double Touch has and Early of 55, Late of 105
# 7 Sharp Samurai has an Early of 97, Late of 76...

They both raced 1st and second in the same last race, and the final two calls they raced even with respect to one another, with neither gaining nor losing lengths on each other..I ask "how can this be...? Wouldn't they both have the same late rating if they ran even with respect to each other...?

Most horses exhibit a see-saw effect, with a higher early than late if speed types, and a higher late than early if closing type horses...but a higher late figure doesn't mean that a horse was moving faster in the late portions of the race, does it...

It gets a little confusing trying to sort the different ratings out...
First the speed rating and tied to that a track variant number. Then a Beyer Speed Figure. Then a speed bias symbol with 4 alternatives. Now TimeformUS Pace Ratings...So HOW does one use them collectively...? How would you suggest to approach analyzing these subsets of speed and pace...?

Since the ratings are "averages" of several races, two horses could finish a nose apart in their last race and have much different early/late ratings. Which is much better, by the way. The Timeform early/late figures are excellent. In m Power Pace Handicapping book I included a chapter on the best way to use these ratings.

cj
05-07-2017, 10:50 AM
Thanks for the help guys. I'm heading to Lone Star today so won't have much time to post. I'll get back to this next week.