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View Full Version : deep slop, rail is dead, closers are dead and deep closer are already in the coffin


boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 05:44 PM
discuss

Robert Fischer
05-05-2017, 05:50 PM
What is this in reference to?

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 05:53 PM
Benner Island :1: had to get out of closing run style and wired along rail in race 8. But speed is definitely good as closers have been going up front all day. But that horses was pretty solid in relation to the field. Have seen 2 other good horses die on the rail. The :5: in race 9 rallied on rail to win. Tough read.

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 05:54 PM
What is this in reference to?

obv finger lakes race track. home to tomorrow's finger licking derby

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 05:56 PM
obv finger lakes race track. home to tomorrow's finger licking derby

That's classic! LOL!:lol:

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 06:01 PM
obv finger lakes race track. home to tomorrow's finger licking derby

That's classic! LOL!:lol:

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/tcs.gif

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 06:09 PM
the way the track is playing any horse up close will be given every chance to hit the board. that's scary.

Robert Fischer
05-05-2017, 06:18 PM
Back to the drawing board, Feynman

upthecreek
05-05-2017, 06:22 PM
Nobody told Mike Smith and Able Tasman that Dead last whole trip

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 06:25 PM
C'mon guys we've seen this before. I saw a closer rally on the rail earlier in R9 but horseplayers aren't the only ones that get over track conscious. Those were 2 solid frontrunners and both thought the track would help them and they killed each other. I had the right idea in the selections thread but picked the wrong closer!

upthecreek
05-05-2017, 06:27 PM
C'mon guys we've seen this before. I saw a closer rally on the rail earlier in R9 but horseplayers aren't the only ones that get over track conscious. Those were 2 solid frontrunners and both thought the track would help them and they killed each other. I had the right idea in the selections thread but picked the wrong closer!
I picked the right one LOL (In Oaks thread)

wreckless
05-05-2017, 06:27 PM
ouch OP, lol

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2017, 06:30 PM
the way the track is playing any horse up close will be given every chance to hit the board. that's scary.

And when 3YO fillies go 9 panels for the first time....., speed holds, right? :coffee:

What happens when "speed is holding all day" when their supposed weaker 3YO brothers go 10F tomorrow?

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 06:33 PM
lol.....1 race doesn't change the 8 others

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 06:34 PM
I picked the right one LOL (In Oaks thread)

Nice my man! I went back and forth between :13: and :14:. 2 stings today!:ThmbUp:

depalma113
05-05-2017, 06:38 PM
Keyed the 3,4,13 on top, but need Lockdown to get up for second. Alive in the Oaks/Derby Double and the Oaks/Derby/Woodford pick three, so I guess I can't complain.

upthecreek
05-05-2017, 06:40 PM
Nice my man! I went back and forth between :13: and :14:. 2 stings today!:ThmbUp:
Thnx I cashed a win bet and alive to #8 and #15 in Oaks/Derby double

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2017, 06:56 PM
lol.....1 race doesn't change the 8 others

There were 5 stakes races on dirt today at Churchill.

3 of them were won on the front end at 7/1, 6/1, and 2/1.

2 won from dead last at 30/1 and 9/1.

Is $83.60 > $40.00?

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2017, 07:00 PM
Nice my man! I went back and forth between :13: and :14:. 2 stings today!:ThmbUp:

My biggest punishment of the day?

$20 Ex :12::14:/:12::13::14:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVhuGCVIf3g

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 07:01 PM
There were 5 stakes races on dirt today at Churchill.

3 of them were won on the front end at 7/1, 6/1, and 2/1.

2 won from dead last at 30/1 and 9/1.

Is $83.60 > $40.00?


so you want to debate that there wasn't a speed and track bias today.

PowerUpPaynter
05-05-2017, 07:29 PM
lol.....1 race doesn't change the 8 others

yeah it pretty much does, maybe it wasnt the track in the other races... it was the horses

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 07:38 PM
yeah it pretty much does, maybe it wasnt the track in the other races... it was the horses

no it pretty much doesn't. there was speed bias today. a pretty big one. to say that there wasn't is lol

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2017, 07:40 PM
so you want to debate that there wasn't a speed and track bias today.Do I have to give my Oaks money back?

garyscpa
05-05-2017, 07:41 PM
There were 5 stakes races on dirt today at Churchill.

3 of them were won on the front end at 7/1, 6/1, and 2/1.

2 won from dead last at 30/1 and 9/1.

Is $83.60 > $40.00?

We'll need Cratos to answer that one.

upthecreek
05-05-2017, 07:42 PM
Do I have to give my Oaks money back?


IM NOT!:jump:

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 07:45 PM
My biggest punishment of the day?

$20 Ex :12::14:/:12::13::14:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVhuGCVIf3g

Brutal! But we are confident with our decisions. We live with em. Very painful though! LOL! That :5: really threw me for a loop. I was on everything else. That :10: wins and I have all the multiple bets from race 7 on.

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 07:47 PM
no it pretty much doesn't. there was speed bias today. a pretty big one. to say that there wasn't is lol

I think it changed over the course of the day. There was so much rain in this region the track got heavy. Best it could be tomorrow IMO is drying out so will be watching closely early on.

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 07:57 PM
I think it changed over the course of the day. There was so much rain in this region the track got heavy. Best it could be tomorrow IMO is drying out so will be watching closely early on.

there's always a couple of horses that can overcome a biased track on any given race day for xyz reasons.

things looked very bleak before that race. and even after it there's still lingering doubt for tomorrow.

people are fooling themselves if they say it's of no concern.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2017, 08:12 PM
there's always a couple of horses that can overcome a biased track on any given race day for xyz reasons.

things looked very bleak before that race. and even after it there's still lingering doubt for tomorrow.

people are fooling themselves if they say it's of no concern.

Not concerned in the least.

2 of the last 3 times we've had a KD track listed as sloppy, horses have come from the back of the field to win in Orb and Mine That Bird. The other, Super Saver, was in 6th at 2nd call.

If speed kills, like you seem to believe, you need to pray for loads of sunshine or War Emblem's genetic twin to show up in Always Dreamings stall tomorrow morning. :)

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 08:20 PM
there's always a couple of horses that can overcome a biased track on any given race day for xyz reasons.

things looked very bleak before that race. and even after it there's still lingering doubt for tomorrow.

people are fooling themselves if they say it's of no concern.

I'm not one of those people Tosc. I am real concerned. I want to add to the W collection tomorrow!

PhantomOnTour
05-05-2017, 08:42 PM
Boys At Tosconova....you are an underachiever, just like your namesake! Lol...shows up every year around Derby time to tell us all what's up. Okay :))

classhandicapper
05-05-2017, 09:20 PM
I thought the inside part of the track was better than the outside for most of the day, but then the last couple of dirt races were much different. Part of that was the extreme pace in the Oaks, but I still think the track may have changed.

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 09:36 PM
Boys At Tosconova....you are an underachiever, just like your namesake! Lol...shows up every year around Derby time to tell us all what's up. Okay :))

yo,...what's up?

well,....there isn't one horse in this years derby that needs the lead. and with that it's relatively smart to think that at the minimum there will be a moderate pace. if i had to press on you could easily say it's more probable that it would be a slower than expected early on because of it.

throw in the fact that several figure horses have tactical speed means that the horses to beat will be in position up close. if the track plays anything like today this could spell doom for many horses with the soft fractions. i mean really,,...it's hard enough w/o a bias to come from far back. the writing is on the wall.

I thought the inside part of the track was better than the outside for most of the day, but then the last couple of dirt races were much different. Part of that was the extreme pace in the Oaks, but I still think the track may have changed.

maybe. maybe not. but right now you can't be confident about it

the off track is just another curve ball to potentially swing and miss with for other reasons.

dballard125
05-05-2017, 09:49 PM
yo,...what's up?

well,....there isn't one horse in this years derby that needs the lead. and with that it's relatively smart to think that at the minimum there will be a moderate pace. if i had to press on you could easily say it's more probable that it would be a slower than expected early on because of it.

throw in the fact that several figure horses have tactical speed means that the horses to beat will be in position up close. if the track plays anything like today this could spell doom for many horses with the soft fractions. i mean really,,...it's hard enough w/o a bias to come from far back. the writing is on the wall.



maybe. maybe not. but right now you can't be confident about it

the off track is just another curve ball to potentially swing and miss with for other reasons.

:coffee:

classhandicapper
05-05-2017, 09:51 PM
maybe. maybe not. but right now you can't be confident about it

the off track is just another curve ball to potentially swing and miss with for other reasons.

I don't consider anything that happened today to be relevant to what will happen tomorrow, but my view on today may have cost me a pretty penny.

I keyed Abel Tasman to 6 horses in the Derby on the view that the Oaks would have a fast pace and might even collapse. As I watched the day's races I became more and more skeptical of my bet because inside speed was doing quite well and even one of the closers that won came up the inside. At the last minute I cancelled the bet. So basically I am screwed even if I mange to make a score in the Derby. I'll be counting the pile of money I won't win because of that last minute decision to cancel. And of course, given how the last 2 dirt races went, I may not have even be right unless the track changed. :bang:

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 10:14 PM
I thought the inside part of the track was better than the outside for most of the day, but then the last couple of dirt races were much different. Part of that was the extreme pace in the Oaks, but I still think the track may have changed.

Yeah I saw 2 winners on the rail with opposing running styles early but thought it got bogged down late. How'd you do today Class? 1 race killed me today personally.

plainolebill
05-05-2017, 10:43 PM
Not concerned in the least.

2 of the last 3 times we've had a KD track listed as sloppy, horses have come from the back of the field to win in Orb and Mine That Bird. The other, Super Saver, was in 6th at 2nd call.

If speed kills, like you seem to believe, you need to pray for loads of sunshine or War Emblem's genetic twin to show up in Always Dreamings stall tomorrow morning. :)

I think Always Dreaming will rate.

classhandicapper
05-05-2017, 11:14 PM
Yeah I saw 2 winners on the rail with opposing running styles early but thought it got bogged down late. How'd you do today Class? 1 race killed me today personally.

I lost a little, but no serious damage. It could have been a lot worse, but it wasn't because I made smaller bets on the off track. But it could have been potentially a lot better if I didn't cancel my Oaks/Derby double tickets.

Tread
05-05-2017, 11:25 PM
so you want to debate that there wasn't a speed and track bias today.


If you are going to dumb it down and say "today", then yes we are going to debate that.

R9 - won from dead last
R10 - Turf
R11 - won from dead last
R12 - won from dead last
R13 - 4th of 9 at first call, 3rd at the half

You are making the classic mistake of assuming a track plays the same way for an entire day. If you want to make that statement about the 1st half of the card, then fine. But to ignore this data and say that "day had a speed bias" in the face of this data is pretty laughable.

CincyHorseplayer
05-05-2017, 11:44 PM
If you are going to dumb it down and say "today", then yes we are going to debate that.

R9 - won from dead last
R10 - Turf
R11 - won from dead last
R12 - won from dead last
R13 - 4th of 9 at first call, 3rd at the half

You are making the classic mistake of assuming a track plays the same way for an entire day. If you want to make that statement about the 1st half of the card, then fine. But to ignore this data and say that "day had a speed bias" in the face of this data is pretty laughable.

That last race also was an off the turfer which doesn't usually play into any normal bias type reading.

Dahoss9698
05-06-2017, 08:10 AM
Not that it helps today, because the track could change depending on what they have done to it overnight....but when looking at yesterday's results for future handicapping you have to acknowledge speed was good early in the day.

The Oaks fell apart and it had been over 2 hours since the last dirt race, so I'm sure they did some work on the track.

I expect a more fair surface today.

Robert Fischer
05-06-2017, 09:08 AM
The reason that I questioned this thread in post #2, was that Friday was Oaks Day.

It wasn't 'Allowance NWX' day or 'MSW' day. It wasn't La Troine day or Alysheba day either.

The whole purpose of the day was the $1 million dollar oaks, because it is the sister day to the kentucky derby(today).

Mudders and Fodders aside, weather is most important when it creates a bias. Bias is important when it causes an extreme setup or dynamics.

Big, dynamic races can't be completely dismissed with generalizations "rail is dead, closers are dead, and deep closers are already in the coffin"...

you still have to look at the most significant factors

The Oaks is a million dollar race. It's a peak point along the 3yo season. We had last-time-was-the-time, 6-5 favorite, whose lone stakes win was the romping workout in the Santa Anita Derby, where she paid $18. She went out that day and was completely disrespected on the front end, and when the other jocks decided to come get her, she displayed graded stakes talent along with good fundamentals.
Yesterday she had a bulls eye on her back for the first time, as well as rivals with actual stakes level early pace.

With the slop favoring speed, and kickback a question, there was no question that Paradise Woods would attempt to go gate-to-wire. This raised the possibility of a setup that favored closers. That possibility made a strong case for some tickets that played that scenario.

I didn't make a killing. I bet the alternative to Paradise Woods (the 13) Win, Exacta (13 top/bottom contenders) (1/6/12/13 box), Oaks-WT-KYD, Oaks-kyd. I also keyed the :6: Vexatious in all 4 slots, but I didn't use the 2 Lockdown 3rd, while keeping the ticket structure lean, so I did not hit the $85,000 superfecta. I thought that Vexatious had the ability to make an impact and she was 40-1. It was a chance to make a score. She made a huge move, but ultimately wasn't good enough.

classhandicapper
05-06-2017, 09:47 AM
If you are going to dumb it down and say "today", then yes we are going to debate that.

R9 - won from dead last
R10 - Turf
R11 - won from dead last
R12 - won from dead last
R13 - 4th of 9 at first call, 3rd at the half

You are making the classic mistake of assuming a track plays the same way for an entire day. If you want to make that statement about the 1st half of the card, then fine. But to ignore this data and say that "day had a speed bias" in the face of this data is pretty laughable.

I thought it was the inside (not speed) that was actually a little better early. Even in race 9 the deep closer came up the inside.

The 11th is harder to analyze from a bias perspective because the pace was hot and a collapse looked quite possible before the race was even run. That's why I had keyed on Abel (before seeing the early races and cancelling my bet)

It was the 12th that made me think the track may have changed. That race also collapsed to outside moves but it didn't really look like a race with a ton of speed or a face pace that would set up like that.

Sometimes it's hard to make an accurate bias determination on a full race card with the large sample. It's REALLY tough to make calls about changing biases. I've seen it happen when the maintenance crew added water, let the track dry, or worked on the track between races, but it's still hard for me to do with confidence.