_______
05-05-2017, 11:31 AM
I have been betting small amounts on baseball (a game I have low knowledge of) using ELO probabilities for each individual game. Not surprisingly, after a short run of wins to start, I'm now underwater.
At this point I'm going to change my approach from betting every game that shows a positive expectation to betting only games where the expectation is 10% or more than the odds offered.
Today's games that meet that criteria are:
Cubs -122
White Sox +143
Just to make the numbers easy, I'll document a flat $100 bet on each game unless laying odds in which case I'll lay the full amount of the bet to return $100 (My actual bet is nowhere near these numbers) and keep a running total.
Today $222 bet.
After tomorrow (5/6), there will be a week of radio silence as I'll be out of internet contact until the 14th but I'll pick up the thread after that.
At this point I'm going to change my approach from betting every game that shows a positive expectation to betting only games where the expectation is 10% or more than the odds offered.
Today's games that meet that criteria are:
Cubs -122
White Sox +143
Just to make the numbers easy, I'll document a flat $100 bet on each game unless laying odds in which case I'll lay the full amount of the bet to return $100 (My actual bet is nowhere near these numbers) and keep a running total.
Today $222 bet.
After tomorrow (5/6), there will be a week of radio silence as I'll be out of internet contact until the 14th but I'll pick up the thread after that.