My Kentucky Derby Value Line

[PaceAdvantage]

CD Race 12 6:46 (20)

:19: Practical Joke 7/2
:14: Classic Empire 6/1
:17: Irish War Cry 19/1
:9: Irap 21/1
:5: Always Dreaming 22/1
:10: Gunnevera 24/1
:1: Lookin At Lee 27/1
:6: State of Honor 30/1

-----NON CONTENDERS-----

:13: J Boys Echo 45/1
:18: Gormley 47/1
:11: Battle of Midway 49/1
:15: McCraken 52/1

[PaceAdvantage]

If I weigh the race to favor those horses more likely to get the distance and close well into what is projected to be a fast pace, I get this revised line of contenders:

:19: Practical Joke 7/2
:14: Classic Empire 7/1
:10: Gunnevera 14/1
:5: Always Dreaming 17/1
:1: Lookin At Lee 21/1
:9: Irap 22/1
:17: Irish War Cry 30/1

As you can see, this moves up Gunnevera, Always Dreaming and Lookin At Lee and penalizes Irap and Irish War Cry.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Not concerned about the 19 post for Practical Joke considering he already had distance questions and now may get a wide trip?

[PaceAdvantage]

Not concerned about the 19 post for Practical Joke considering he already had distance questions and now may get a wide trip?I'll be betting a few more horses other than Practical Joke, that's for sure.

His odds will justify any and all question marks. If he gets a decent trip (which have been few and far between for this horse), he might shock the world a bit. Then again, this is the Derby and a decent trip would be a miracle for most.

[CincyHorseplayer]

With the entire length of the stretch in front of them at the start I think post is almost non concern. A rationalization for losing bets.

[Robert Fischer]

He (may, or) may not get to sit right on the rail, but there is likely to be 6-10 horses that want to run closer to the pace, and 4-6 horses that want to take back.
He will likely get a decent path, and ground loss will be an insignificant concern.

The important questions for him, is whether any forwardly-placed chalk run huge, and how he times his move.

[keithw84]

With the entire length of the stretch in front of them at the start I think post is almost non concern. A rationalization for losing bets.

I think the inside posts are definitely worse than the outside posts. I always think of Lookin At Lucky getting shuffled back and rallying to get 5th.

As far as outside posts not producing as many winners... It's only been the last couple decades that the race has consistently had 20 (or close to 20) starters year-in and year-out. As recently as 1976, there were only 9 starters!:eek:

Also, Nehro ran from the 19 hole in 2011, and he didn't win, but he did hit the board.

[f2tornado]

I think the inside posts are definitely worse than the outside posts.

From a post I made in a different thread... I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside have been more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside. Certainly a good horse can win from outside and if you're high on one then I wouldn't let the PP dissuade you much. If you're on the fence on one then consider auxiliary gate starters do have a tougher time hitting the board overall.

I'm glad to see Classic Empire near the top. He's one I will be using considerably.

[JustRalph]

" As recently as 1976"

:lol:

As if that was a few years back.

[storyline]

Hey boss, how about a line for a "wet track" with a "fast pace"

[keithw84]

From a post I made in a different thread... I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside have been more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside. Certainly a good horse can win from outside and if you're high on one then I wouldn't let the PP dissuade you much. If you're on the fence on one then consider auxiliary gate starters do have a tougher time hitting the board overall.

I'm glad to see Classic Empire near the top. He's one I will be using considerably.

So doing some quick math, the inside 6 accounted for 19 trifecta positions, the middle 8 accounted for 17 (assuming you included 2000 and there are 51 tri positions), and outside 6 accounted for 17. So coming out of gates 15-20 is as good as coming out of gates 7-14(!):eek:

[f2tornado]

So doing some quick math, the inside 6 accounted for 19 trifecta positions, the middle 8 accounted for 17 (assuming you included 2000 and there are 51 tri positions), and outside 6 accounted for 17. So coming out of gates 15-20 is as good as coming out of gates 7-14(!):eek:

The auxiliary gate accounted for 13 trifecta positions and an additional 3 super positions. The inside 6 posts accounted for 19 and 7. That leaves 19 tri spots for the middle 8 posts and another 7 spots for bottom of super. The outside is simply not as effective hitting the board or super but certainly not a death knell as we have seen a number of winners from there. There were a few races with less than 20 starters but the average over the period is 19+.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not great with statistics involving small sample sizes, nor do I pretend to be.

However, I find that having a thorough understanding of any special adversity that may occur from having post 1,2,3 or 18,19,20 is useful.
Now I can apply that insight to specific horses, and projected pace environments.

In addition, if I can't explain the reason for a specific statistic, in simple terms, I don't like to bet on or against that factor.

[Bennie]

Can I get a piece of mcCraken at 52-1?;)

[big frank]

i'll take a piece of McCraken also--------------50-1 !!!!!!!!!!!!! Come on ,, you are saying he less than a 2 percent chance of winning ??????? I would take 10-1 or higher all day and night long.......hoping for 8-1 sat

[keithw84]

The auxiliary gate accounted for 13 trifecta positions and an additional 3 super positions. The inside 6 posts accounted for 19 and 7. That leaves 19 tri spots for the middle 8 posts and another 7 spots for bottom of super. The outside is simply not as effective hitting the board or super but certainly not a death knell as we have seen a number of winners from there. There were a few races with less than 20 starters but the average over the period is 19+.

Thanks. My math was fuzzy or I misread your post. But either way, the point is well taken.

[Tom]

Gee, PA, I like all of your non-contenders at this point....:D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm not doubting you after Green Gratto.:headbanger:

Burnt a few nickels on Practical Joke in the preps. Why stop now? :)

[garyscpa]

i'll take a piece of McCraken also--------------50-1 !!!!!!!!!!!!! Come on ,, you are saying he less than a 2 percent chance of winning ??????? I would take 10-1 or higher all day and night long.......hoping for 8-1 sat

I think value line is different than fair value line.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think value line is different than fair value line.Fair value on that one would be about 33-1...:lol:

[garyscpa]

Well, everyone is saying that Practical Joke is a hanger. Yet you and Little Andy both pick him. Two people whom I respect.

What to do? :confused:

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Practical Joke seems to have been the "wise guy" horse for a while. One of my keys for horses going from 2 to 3 is that they show figure improvement as a 3YO within their first two races, and he did that in the Blue Grass. I also put him in my top three in my Derby analysis posted on my blog page.

He’s been a little bit of the wise guy horse. He ran well as a two year old, winning the Hopeful, the Champagne, and running a decent third in the BC Juvenile after having a little trouble at the start. He was impressive in the Florida Derby on that tiring track. One negative is that he only started twice as a three year old, and historically three or more starts seems to be necessary for a win, but if any trainer can get a horse ready off a shorter prep season, it’s Chad Brown. He’s nicely bred for the mile and a quarter and he’s progressed beautifully up to the Derby. He is the longshot prospect for me.

[f2tornado]

PJ's last out Brisnet 98 LP rating at least clears one of my angles (95+). His overall figure is in the ballpark. He has the hottest rider in town. Rosario hit 8 of 10 trifectas in the past week. Trainer Brown 3rd off the lay angle going for him too. He will lose some ground leaving from a post in Des Moines, Iowa and I would have liked to see his Blue Grass closing fractions a couple ticks faster. Also, Storm Cat sire line has a worse win record than TAP in the Derby. He does have one of the special conduit mares in tail female (Countess Wanda). Those have been known to blow up the tote board. I like him underneath in the gimmicks.

[Robert Fischer]

http://i65.tinypic.com/2jga1kl.jpg

I have :19:Practical Joke at the front of the "Stalkers" perhaps close/outside of :2:Thunder Snow or :4:Untrapped.

[maddog42]

Not concerned about the 19 post for Practical Joke considering he already had distance questions and now may get a wide trip?

The last horse that had the 19 post that I liked was I'll have another. That post kept me from betting that horse heavy. I still got the exacta.Don't make my mistake unless you are sure he'll go wide.

[maddog42]

I'll be betting a few more horses other than Practical Joke, that's for sure.

His odds will justify any and all question marks. If he gets a decent trip (which have been few and far between for this horse), he might shock the world a bit. Then again, this is the Derby and a decent trip would be a miracle for most.

Practical Joke ranks very high on almost everybodys Class rankings. He ranks 4th on mine.

[Mulerider]

Practical Joke ranks very high on almost everybodys Class rankings. He ranks 4th on mine.

He ranks 2nd on mine, which surprised me. I'll be using him.