Who will win the Derby?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Simple poll: Who do you think will win the derby?

[yankeelpn]

Simple poll: Who do you think will win the derby?

My top 5: IWC,AD,Gunnevera,CE and McCraken

[PowerUpPaynter]

My top 5: IWC,AD,Gunnevera,CE and McCraken

i kinda agree seems too chalky tho.... love me some Hence too

[glengarry]

McCraken. Has to run down IWC. The hay and oats trainers run 1-2, which would be nice.

[coachv30]

My top four right now are....

GORMLEY

ALWAYS DREAMING

HENCE

CLASSIC EMPIRE

[PowerUpPaynter]

The favorite has never won the derby 5 years in a row. Im thinking this is a good year to swing for the fences...

[Zaf]

| picked Thunder Snow, dont like the PP draw so may shift to Hence depending on the odds.

Z

[Mulerider]

Preliminary rankings:

Classic Empire
Gormley
Irish War Cry
Gunnevera
Always Dreaming

I made a mistake in the Arkansas Derby (tournament play) by tossing Classic Empire and Malagacy from the top spots and going with 3rd choice Conquest Mo Money. That said, I'm prepared to toss CE again, and live with the consequences if he beats me one more time.

Good luck to everybody Saturday!

[VigorsTheGrey]

The favorite has never won the derby 5 years in a row. Im thinking this is a good year to swing for the fences...
Agree...good horses, great odds....a good combination...we can get 5-1 anytime... Seems like I arrive at this juncture often...this is horse racing...this is gambling...why not swing for the fences...being right on a low odds horse in a big race isn't very fun...I wonder about ThunderSnow, lots of hype now, gets lasix, is being touted...8-1? I don't know pp2 not so good...Sonneteer's last fraction are inticing...should be fun...hoping CE throws a clunker...

[arw629]

Irish War Cry and McCracken are never going to win at 10 furlongs

[trifecta]

I like Gormley.

[depalma113]

Always Dreaming - He's fast early, and very fast late.

[MargieRose]

Gormley...possible rain for the day; strong mud stats.
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming

Maybe a Trifecta Box.

[windstone]

Probably the only vote he will get but i like state of honor..:6:

[thaskalos]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.

[Delta Cone]

Gunnevera with a carbon copy of the Orb trip, rolls past the field with a sustained drive as they turn for home.

[mostpost]

I have no strong feelings about this year's Kentucky Derby. So, I am going to play a $2 trifecta box based on the current top three vote recipients in the above poll. Those would be Irish War Cry, Thunder Snow and Classic Empire. I am aware that both Hence and Classic Empire currently have eight votes, but I believe CE to be the superior horse in that matchup.

I will also play a $1 trifecta box combining the top two in the poll with Always Dreaming and the same combining them with Irap.

[big frank]

McCracken rolls by late !

[PowerUpPaynter]

So much love for Thunder Snow.... wow didnt see that one coming

[Lemon Drop Husker]

So much love for Thunder Snow.... wow didnt see that one coming

Obviously they didn't know that it will be raining on Saturday. There is no Snow in the forecast. :)

[djm1959]

i suck at the derby pickin the winner,,, so if i give you 19 choices,, you would win with the one i leave out

[JayTris07]

My picks which I will box in a Superfecta and Trifecta.

Classic Empire

Thunder Snow

Battle Of Midway

Tapwrit

Irish War Cry


:cool:

[PoloUK6108]

Gunnevera with a carbon copy of the Orb trip, rolls past the field with a sustained drive as they turn for home.

I kinda imagined this as a scenario as well. We'll see how the track looks though.

[jk3521]

:10: to win, over :14: and:19: in the exacta.

[Nitro]

Early Selections (Pre-tote analysis):
2 Primary Keys w/ 5 others for the Verticals

ALWAYS DREAMING & CLASSIC EMPIRE – (5 & 14)

W/-HENCE –GUNNEVERA –GORMLEY -GIRVIN -TAPWRIT (W/ 8-10-18-7-16)

$2 EX Bx (Either Key must finish 1st or 2nd)
K1 w/ K2–3-4-5-6-7 - (12 bets) - $24
K2 w/ 3-4-5-6-7 - (10 bets - $20

$2 TRI Bx (1 Key must finish in the money)
K1 - w/K2-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K2-3-4-5-6-7 – (30 bets) - $60
K2-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K1 - w/K2-3-4-5-6-7 – (30 bets) - $60
K2-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K2-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K1 – (30 bets) - $60 ($180)

K2 - w/K1-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K1-3-4-5-6-7 – (30 bets) - $60
K1-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K2 - w/K1-3-4-5-6-7 – (30 bets) - $60
K1-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K1-3-4-5-6-7 - w/K2 – (30 bets) - $60 ($180)

(Note: If both K1 & K2 are in the money the TRI is hit 2X)

Or 7 Entry Full $2 TRI Bx = 7 x 6 x 5 = 210 bets - $410

[Hypnotist1]

Please post tote selection for today and tommorow at Churchill Thank you
Hypnotist1

[OntheRail]

McCraken.. will be in the mix. Just have a feeling about it.

[f2tornado]

My first trifecta wager is in:
5, 14, WT, 5, 8, 10, 14, 19, WT, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, 17, 19

[dballard125]

If the track plays anything close to what it did today, I like Gunnevera's chances even more.

[JustRalph]

I'm sneaking out to SHRP around midnight to bet a maiden in the Derby....


:headbanger:

[jocko699]

My play will be #10 Gunnevera but only at 12-1 or higher. I did like Girvin before hearing about the quarter crack. Lets have a safe race!!!!

[JustRalph]

I'm sneaking out to SHRP around midnight to bet a maiden in the Derby....


:headbanger:

Wow! 35-40 people playing Australia at SHRP at midnight.

It was a grimey looking group:lol:

[fiznow]

Hey all, cant find anything negative about Girvin, especially at 16-1. Looks pretty solid and good to me, even better with Mike Smith aboard. Good luck!

[deathandgravity]

Crunched the numbers
Consulted the starts
Sacrificed a small woodland creature @ midnight..
Countless hours on the PPs

wide open...

Go with Big Money Mike:

Girvin
Irish War Cry
Classic Empire

[Tom]

My Top Picks

McCracken
Classic Empire
Tapwrit
Gunnevera
Practical Joker
Irish War Cry
Thunder Snow
J Boys Echo

Hey, Secretariat lost the Wood.....McCracken should be ready to move ahead, Classic Empire looks like he ready move past last year's top as well.

Thunder Snow the ??? Did he get a 108 TF of a 115 Cj has in his Derby spreadsheet?

The 115 puts him up a notch or three for me.

I suspect bleeding explains why Irish War Cried and lasix explains his bounce back.

[Michael]

Hey all, cant find anything negative about Girvin, especially at 16-1. Looks pretty solid and good to me, even better with Mike Smith aboard. Good luck!

Quarter crack on the inside wall of the right foot. Missed a workout on April 22nd. Reg Jockey (Hernandez) choose McCraken over Girvin. Stormcat sire line is zero for 59 for the win in the derby. All fairly negative.

That said Mike Smith is YUGE ... and the work on the 29th shows he's fit to run. At his current odds.... there's enough of a buffer that it's a good bet. good luck fiznow.

[lansdale]

For me, handicapping now down to KD and BC. Much as I hate to disagree with the estimable Thaskalos, felt I had to leave out AD. So:

1. Classic Empire
2. McCracken
3. Irish War Cry
4. Practical Joke

[michiken]

Swinging for the fences with J boys echo.

13/all and all/13 in the exacta.

[ultracapper]

i suck at the derby pickin the winner,,, so if i give you 19 choices,, you would win with the one i leave out

Give us your 19. I have no clue and need all the help I can get.

[Maximillion]

going with :6: State of Honor

[ribjig]

Classic Empire now 7/1.
Look for late drop in odds towards ML 4/1...?
Some will interpret as smart money & jump on, causing further drop...?
But it may mask true smart money triggering other drop(s) in odd(s)...
If no other smart money indicated, then...!!!

[ultracapper]

Classic Empire now 7/1.
Look for late drop in odds towards ML 4/1...?
Some will interpret as smart money & jump on, causing further drop...?
But it may mask true smart money triggering other drop(s) in odd(s)...
If no other smart money indicated, then...!!!

If that horse goes from 7 to 4 that would be some serious bet down.

[Simple Syrup]

going with :6: State of Honor

Sorry, that's who I bet. History says that won't end well.

[ribjig]

If that horse goes from 7 to 4 that would be some serious bet down.
Insiders collectively betting ~$2M late would do it, AFAICT.
But even $1M would trigger non-insider late betting pile-on...?
(late = final few minutes)

[fiznow]

Quarter crack on the inside wall of the right foot. Missed a workout on April 22nd. Reg Jockey (Hernandez) choose McCraken over Girvin. Stormcat sire line is zero for 59 for the win in the derby. All fairly negative.

That said Mike Smith is YUGE ... and the work on the 29th shows he's fit to run. At his current odds.... there's enough of a buffer that it's a good bet. good luck fiznow.

Ty Michael but with the current track condition it's more lottery than horse racing or better said more swimming than running. So everything is possible ;). I just hope all horses come home save.

[JimG]

#8 Hence is my pick.

[JustRalph]

Jeff Bridges picked a terrible day to quit horse racing........

[ribjig]

And so it begins...
An extra ~$100K on C.E. to win

[depalma113]

Fast Early! Faster Late! Boom Baby!

[thaskalos]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.

I think he only won by 3. Oh, well...

[Secondbest]

I thought the exact came back a little low at 336.

[Nitro]

Early Selections (Pre-tote analysis):
2 Primary Keys w/ 5 others for the Verticals

ALWAYS DREAMING & CLASSIC EMPIRE – (5 & 14)

W/-HENCE –GUNNEVERA –GORMLEY -GIRVIN -TAPWRIT (W/ 8-10-18-7-16)



Results: Top choice Winner!

R # 12 = 5-1-11-14-19 – WIN – No action on the LS Placer & 3rd finisher

$2.00 WIN – 5 - $11.40

[Harmonicaslim]

I wish every favorite paid 11.40

[glengarry]

I think he only won by 3. Oh, well...

Great call. When Pletcher wins the derby, I don't. First one of his with Florida preps to run big. Congrats for ignoring the negative Pletcher noise and settling on who you liked. The inside and the rail was giant today. But no doubt AD could have won from anywhere.

[depalma113]

I thought the exact came back a little low at 336.


My guess is there were a lot of All/All exactas this year.

[ReplayRandall]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.
And the rich get richer....Nice call by open lengths..:ThmbUp:

BTW, how many bags did you need to carry the cash, or did you take a check?

[judd]

I think he only won by 3. Oh, well...
:ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

And the rich get richer....Nice call by open lengths..:ThmbUp:

BTW, how many bags did you need to carry the cash, or did you take a check?

You've mistaken me for another Greek. I am the poor one. :)

[dkithore]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.

Awsome THASK!

[elhelmete]

I wish every favorite paid 11.40

yeah no kidding!

A few things about the tote today...

Looked like Patch sucked up a lot of emotional $$$...

How the heck does Thunder Snow go off at shorter odds than, say, Gormley, Practical Joke, Girvin...? Should have been 2-3x his odds at post.

[lansdale]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.

I paid the price today, for foolishly departing from the proven handicapping wisdom of Thaskalos. The Greeks had a word for it -- 'hubris'. Congrats on a perfect call!

[Exotic1]

Always Dreaming...by 3.5 lengths.

I just saw this.

Spectacular !!!