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AirNate012
05-03-2017, 12:42 PM
1. Lookin at Lee - 20/1
2. Thundersnow - 20/1
3. Fast and Accurate - 50/1
4. Untrapped - 30/1
5. Always Dreaming - 5/1
6. State of Honor - 30/1
7. Girvin - 15/1
8. Hence - 15/1
9. Irap - 20/1
10. Gunnevera - 15/1
11. Battle of Midway - 30/1
12. Sonneteer - 50/1
13. J Boys Echo - 20/1
14. Classic Empire - 4/1
15. McCraken - 5/1
16. Tapwrit - 20/1
17. Irish War Cry - 6/1
18. Gormley - 15/1
19. Practical Joke - 20/1
20. Patch - 30/1


Interesting to see that the speed drew inside.

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 12:45 PM
https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/859795214483025920

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 12:47 PM
3 things stand out at me.

1. Always Dreaming drew not the worst but pretty crummy

2. Irish War Cry drew very good.

3. McCraken at 5-1 on the morning line? - head scratcher... I figured 10-1 or even 12-1

AirNate012
05-03-2017, 12:57 PM
5/1 on a horse that hasn't run fast enough to beat nearly half the field? No thanks.

Jp66123
05-03-2017, 12:57 PM
Great draw for Hence. With the late money he took in the Sunland derby I'm guessing his connections knew something went wrong in the Southwest and that he would improve. Maiden win in the slop was special as well.

chiguy
05-03-2017, 01:02 PM
My very scientific methods have led me to an all "G" trifecta box. Gormley, Girvin and Gunnevera. I probably just killed my price by releasing this here.:7::10::18:

Valuist
05-03-2017, 01:07 PM
If you draw the 1 post or the outer 3-4 posts, you have little to no chance. Yes, we all know Big Brown won from the 20 hole, but are there any Big Browns in this field? No. Just too much ground loss on the first turn from drawing that far outside.

yankeelpn
05-03-2017, 01:18 PM
5/1 on a horse that hasn't run fast enough to beat nearly half the field? No thanks.

Guess you were talikng about McCraken?

yankeelpn
05-03-2017, 01:19 PM
Great draw for Hence. With the late money he took in the Sunland derby I'm guessing his connections knew something went wrong in the Southwest and that he would improve. Maiden win in the slop was special as well.

That 15-1 wont last, Ill guess between 6-1 - 8-1

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 01:21 PM
Much rather be Irish War Cry than Always Dreaming. Irish War Cry if he breaks well could be sitting pretty by the time they hit the turn. Always Dreaming is kinda in a bad spot with State Of Honor, Irap, and Battle Of Midway to his outside.

yankeelpn
05-03-2017, 01:26 PM
Much rather be Irish War Cry than Always Dreaming. Irish War Cry if he breaks well could be sitting pretty by the time they hit the turn. Always Dreaming is kinda in a bad spot with State Of Honor, Irap, and Battle Of Midway to his outside.

I would let Fast and Accurate go to the lead and pounch when the time is right. Still believe AD is the best of these, now its a waiting game!

FrankieFigs
05-03-2017, 01:36 PM
3 things stand out at me.

3. McCraken at 5-1 on the morning line? - head scratcher... I figured 10-1 or even 12-1

5/1 on a horse that hasn't run fast enough to beat nearly half the field? No thanks.

He is undefeated at Churchill. The fans there will love it. That's why he is 5/1 ML.

AirNate012
05-03-2017, 01:51 PM
Guess you were talikng about McCraken?

Yes. 5/1 is too low. I don't see him going off lower than Always Dreaming.

AirNate012
05-03-2017, 01:53 PM
That 15-1 wont last, Ill guess between 6-1 - 8-1

I don't see him going that low. Maybe 12/1 at the lowest.

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 01:57 PM
I dont see Hence going off lower than McCraken and I dont see McCraken going off lower than 9-1. The morning line is way off. I just dont see 4 horses going off at 6-1 or lower.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-03-2017, 02:06 PM
If you draw the 1 post or the outer 3-4 posts, you have little to no chance. Yes, we all know Big Brown won from the 20 hole, but are there any Big Browns in this field? No. Just too much ground loss on the first turn from drawing that far outside.

We agree a lot. :ThmbUp:

Posts :17:-:20: have 3 career Derby winners (:18: Gato Del Sol, :19: I'll Have Another, :20: Big Brown) and have finished in the money a glorious 12 times.

:17: is the only Derby post position to never win the race.

Inner Dirt
05-03-2017, 02:25 PM
Any place where you can get a free DRF PP of the Derby? I can only find PPs I am not interested in. I am just making sure not to fall victim to my own impulsiveness. I suck at Churchill and if I pay $3.50 for the whole day, the rest of the card will be at my finger tips to start fishing for other bets I am destined to lose, just getting the derby only will alleviate the temptation.

I went to the CD in 1999 for Oaks and Derby day, did not cash a ticket and played every race both days, even single race bets wins, exactas, and trifectas. Try to top that for stinking up the place.

f2tornado
05-03-2017, 02:25 PM
3 things stand out at me.

1. Always Dreaming drew not the worst but pretty crummy

2. Irish War Cry drew very good.

3. McCraken at 5-1 on the morning line? - head scratcher... I figured 10-1 or even 12-1

I was hoping AD would draw the 5 hole. It's a superb post historically. Great spot for an E/P. Glad to see IWC draw 17. I didn't want to use him on top now I definitely won't. Not a good spot for an E/P type. Hence is in the power hole. Empire gets some space in the 14.

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 02:54 PM
I was hoping AD would draw the 5 hole. It's a superb post historically. Great spot for an E/P. Glad to see IWC draw 17. I didn't want to use him on top now I definitely won't. Not a good spot for an E/P type. Hence is in the power hole. Empire gets some space in the 14.

Simply on numbers yes you are 100% correct, but AD has some speed to his right which puts him in an interesting spot out of the gate. IWC has all the speed far down to his inside and 4 out of 5 to his immediate inside are closers. He can get into a solid position heading into the turn. I dont pay much attention to the post number by number. If California Chrome or American Pharoah drew 17 they still would of won.



https://twitter.com/DRFWatchmaker/status/859804176687267845

f2tornado
05-03-2017, 03:43 PM
Agree AD has some speed around him but I'd rather be there then using up energy early avoiding getting caught wide. Further, there's no guarantee those horses don't change tactics. I suppose it is possible IWC attempts the same and drops back. He showed ample speed in the backstretch in the Wood. I do agree Chrome and AP could have won from any post but those two were obvious class of the field. IWC is not at that level with this crew. I'm now debating whether or not to use him at all in the gimmicks.

boys at tosconova
05-03-2017, 06:36 PM
Agree AD has some speed around him but I'd rather be there then using up energy early avoiding getting caught wide. Further, there's no guarantee those horses don't change tactics.



of course you do. it's simple math. regardless of the bozos that say it's better being on the outside and looking to see what the others will do on your inside.

i lol @ the way people talk about the 20 horse derby field and post positions and claim being on the outside is a good spot.

post 1 and 20 are murder. and you might be able to extend it to post 2 and 3 and the whole auxiliary gate.

there needs to be a scientific study done to factualize this more.

as of now you get people drawing outside post doing bro bumps to one another. i liken this a little to olympic ski jumps in the past 30 years. every 4 years they changed jumping styles to get more distance because of what data told them. it's really funny as chit. especially since every year they thought "the way they were doing it was the best" way

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 06:53 PM
What's always dreaming's move out the gate if its up to you? And lets assume SOH and BOM want the front w IRAP pushing hard for a good position off them

boys at tosconova
05-03-2017, 07:05 PM
What's always dreaming's move out the gate if its up to you? And lets assume SOH and BOM want the front w IRAP pushing hard for a good position off them

nobody wants to be on the lead. with this, will anybody elect to use more speed to get there? maybe. i still believe that anybody who wants the lead, will get it, and the fractions won't be that strong.

as for horses battling for close position behind said horse, well that's a different story.

as for where ad will be, it doesn't matter, you know he will likely be forwardly placed in the first group for a long time in position to win the race. as much as they don't want to be on the front end, it may not be that bad should he be there.

as for honor and midway....honor's decent race w/o blinks doesn't make him a speed burner anymore and midway doesn't need to be on the lead either.

glengarry
05-03-2017, 07:53 PM
of course you do. it's simple math. regardless of the bozos that say it's better being on the outside and looking to see what the others will do on your inside.

i lol @ the way people talk about the 20 horse derby field and post positions and claim being on the outside is a good spot.

post 1 and 20 are murder. and you might be able to extend it to post 2 and 3 and the whole auxiliary gate.

there needs to be a scientific study done to factualize this more.

as of now you get people drawing outside post doing bro bumps to one another. i liken this a little to olympic ski jumps in the past 30 years. every 4 years they changed jumping styles to get more distance because of what data told them. it's really funny as chit. especially since every year they thought "the way they were doing it was the best" way

I just finished reading an article on post positions. Seven of the 17 winners from 2000 to the present broke from the auxiliary gate. That's post 15-20. Yes, some were favorites. I think it's safe to assume that wide posts in the derby is not a negative. The horses that lose all chance early are often those drawn inside. That's why just about any trainer or jock would choose the 20 over the one post.

JustRalph
05-03-2017, 08:04 PM
IWC in 17........

Screwed

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 08:07 PM
IWC in 17........

Screwed

what if he was in 16 or 18?

MNslappy
05-03-2017, 08:12 PM
naw, he's just being funny :D

f2tornado
05-03-2017, 08:44 PM
I think it's safe to assume that wide posts in the derby is not a negative.

I'm skeptical of that statement. A quick look at the gimmicks over the last 10 renewals shows only one exacta consisting entirely of auxiliary gate starters (2011). None for all three spots of trifecta. There have been a few years when two have made up the super. Further, inside posts are overrepresented in the super. Perhaps I will calculate an impact value. Pioneerof the Nile probably wins if he drew inside. AP was a superior horse but it took some serious whipping to get him up after running so wide. Orb was a favorite who dropped back then pounced. I recall Animal Kingdom doing same. Big Brown was chalk and pulled it off in what might have been weakest field I've seen. I'll Have Another came out of the 19 hole but seemingly caught every break possible getting in excellent position early.

I certainly will not let an outside post sway me from a horse I'm confident in. I learned that lesson with I'll Have Another. I will however allow a bad post to toss a horse I'm on the fence. In this case Irish War Cry is off the top of my tickets and will be used less underneath. Patch and Gormley are now likely off the bottom of my tri. I will drop Practical Joke a notch. Was considering him
in gimmicks place pool but now looking at the bottom of my tri.

glengarry
05-03-2017, 10:00 PM
I'm skeptical of that statement. A quick look at the gimmicks over the last 10 renewals shows only one exacta consisting entirely of auxiliary gate starters (2011). None for all three spots of trifecta. There have been a few years when two have made up the super. Further, inside posts are overrepresented in the super. Perhaps I will calculate an impact value. Pioneerof the Nile probably wins if he drew inside. AP was a superior horse but it took some serious whipping to get him up after running so wide. Orb was a favorite who dropped back then pounced. I recall Animal Kingdom doing same. Big Brown was chalk and pulled it off in what might have been weakest field I've seen. I'll Have Another came out of the 19 hole but seemingly caught every break possible getting in excellent position early.

I certainly will not let an outside post sway me from a horse I'm confident in. I learned that lesson with I'll Have Another. I will however allow a bad post to toss a horse I'm on the fence. In this case Irish War Cry is off the top of my tickets and will be used less underneath. Patch and Gormley are now likely off the bottom of my tri. I will drop Practical Joke a notch. Was considering him
in gimmicks place pool but now looking at the bottom of my tri.

Starting in 2000 to the present, 17 derbies have been run, with an average field size of around 19. 238 horses started in the main gate, and 85 in the auxiliary gate. Of those 17 derbies, 7 were won out of the auxiliary gate. So 35% of the starters came from the auxiliary gate, and 41% came in first. What more can be said? Sure, saving ground is almost always preferable. It's simple math. But the derby is also about surviving the first 1/4 mile. I like IWC's draw. High cruising speed, no one to cross over on him. Don't like the 20 that CB's horse drew. Not much tactical speed could make for a long day for him.

yankeelpn
05-03-2017, 10:23 PM
what if he was in 16 or 18?

Good point! Today is the only day all year that I went with IWC, all the reading and all the videos and I picked him...I didnt like him all year until today. But....if I read more Ill probably change my mind again lol.

f2tornado
05-03-2017, 10:27 PM
I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside are more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside.

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 10:27 PM
I dont know if iv ever been so indecisive about my derby bets before. not saying I was always right but I always knew how I wanted to bet it... You should see the pile of crumbled up paper in front of me right now

boys at tosconova
05-04-2017, 12:51 PM
I just finished reading an article on post positions. Seven of the 17 winners from 2000 to the present broke from the auxiliary gate. That's post 15-20. Yes, some were favorites. I think it's safe to assume that wide posts in the derby is not a negative. The horses that lose all chance early are often those drawn inside. That's why just about any trainer or jock would choose the 20 over the one post.

just because a trainer would pick 20 over 1 post doesn't mean the outside is a great place to be, it just means the 1 is chit awful.

i have a hard time believing that wide posts not being a negative. in a normal race post 12 hinders you. now in the derby post 12 is the best place to be?

i can't swallow that without questioning things. regardless of how many winners the derby produced from xyz posts.

f2tornado
05-04-2017, 01:23 PM
i have a hard time believing that wide posts not being a negative. in a normal race post 12 hinders you. now in the derby post 12 is the best place to be?


Agree. See my post above about the inside posts well outperforming auxiliary posts in the tri and super. Using the tri and super gives you a larger sample size which allows for a stronger confidence window in the world of statistics.

Perhaps we should also look some favorites and near favorites that got beat out there. Point Given (17), Saarland (15), Tapit (16), Bellamy Road (16), Bandini (15), Brother Derek (18), Circular Quay (16), Pioneerof the Nile (16), Sidney's Candy (20), Midnight Interlude (15), Gemologist (15), Wicked Strong (19), Candy Boy (17).

AskinHaskin
05-04-2017, 10:29 PM
i have a hard time believing that wide posts not being a negative. in a normal race post 12 hinders you. now in the derby post 12 is the best place to be?



OK, and just hooooooooooooooooooow many 10-furlong races featuring 12 or more horses have you seen run over a standard American one-mile oval???


Your intuitive data sample is minuscule.


AT CD, since the start of 1998, posts 14 and out at exactly 1 1/4 miles are a very reasonable 8-for-109 on the win end.


They are a well-within-reason 15-for-109 in the top three.


If you use 15-and-out (the aux. gate), the numbers are even better. (8/90 and 14/90)


So wide post is generally a non-issue at the very least. At most it is an advantage in various ways.

glengarry
05-04-2017, 10:58 PM
Agree. See my post above about the inside posts well outperforming auxiliary posts in the tri and super. Using the tri and super gives you a larger sample size which allows for a stronger confidence window in the world of statistics.

Perhaps we should also look some favorites and near favorites that got beat out there. Point Given (17), Saarland (15), Tapit (16), Bellamy Road (16), Bandini (15), Brother Derek (18), Circular Quay (16), Pioneerof the Nile (16), Sidney's Candy (20), Midnight Interlude (15), Gemologist (15), Wicked Strong (19), Candy Boy (17).

I just don't know what to say other than you could have given have the horses you mentioned a 5 length head start and they would have been beaten anyway, and by a lot. Since the KD fields started to grow in 2000, the aux gate has won at a 41% clip, and the 13 and up at an impressive 53% The KD is not a normal horse race. As the filed sizes frew dramatically, the key went from just saving ground to instead avoid getting kamikazied in the run to the first turn. Sure, you need to save ground, but mainly, in a race like this, relative to the rest of the field.

As for Wicked Strong, he ran 4th form the 20, and probably runs third if not cut off by Danza in mid stretch. Commanding Curve was 2nd from the 17 hole. So half the super is the aux gate. Sure, it would be nice to have the 8-12, but one thing you don't want is half the field cutting over on you and blowing all chance for your horse who drew too far inside.

Post 1, 2, and 3 have yielded a whopping 1 winner combined in the past 30 years. If KD fields were limited to 10 or 12, I am sure it would have been a lot higher than that.

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 01:03 AM
Post 1, 2, and 3 have yielded a whopping 1 winner combined in the past 30 years.


http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/michael-jordan-laugh.gif

Lemon Drop Husker
05-05-2017, 01:16 AM
Agree. See my post above about the inside posts well outperforming auxiliary posts in the tri and super. Using the tri and super gives you a larger sample size which allows for a stronger confidence window in the world of statistics.

Perhaps we should also look some favorites and near favorites that got beat out there. Point Given (17), Saarland (15), Tapit (16), Bellamy Road (16), Bandini (15), Brother Derek (18), Circular Quay (16), Pioneerof the Nile (16), Sidney's Candy (20), Midnight Interlude (15), Gemologist (15), Wicked Strong (19), Candy Boy (17).

Massive stretch on Bandini, Midnight Lute, Gemologist, and Candy Boy.

Sidney's Candy took the most dumb money I've ever seen in KD history.

AskinHaskin
05-05-2017, 02:29 AM
I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside are more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside.



LOL - yeah, right


When 1 through 6 started in every one of those 17 Derbies = 102 runners


And 15-20 only started 84 times.



In Derbies with 19 or 20 bodies in the gate from 2000-2016, posts 1-through-6 have managed to win 2 of 12 derbies combined.


Posts 15-20 have taken 5 of those 12 derbies.



In Derbies with 19 or 20 bodies in the gate from 2000-2016, posts 1-through-6 have managed 7 exacta finishes.

Posts 15-20 have managed 9 exacta finishes in the same set, despite having fewer at-bats.


The #1 hole hasn't cracked the top-3 at all in those situations, while Big Brown was the only representation by #20 (#1 is 0-for-12 and #20 is just 1-for-7, so #20 would win any 'tie')


What really bothers me is that the fools who have been presenting "post position stats" in the same, meaningless way for generations cannot learn anything from the reality constantly placed right before their eyes.


(of COURSE the 1 hole is going to win a greater percentage of all races than #10... because the #1 is often 25... or 33... or even 50% of the field... while #10 is never more than 10% of the field)


Let me leave you with the post stats for dirt routes at Penn National for 2016


1 72/553 .13
2 86/552 .16
3 78/552 .14
4 85/552 .15
5 89/548 .16
6 66/500 .13
7 38/354 .11
8 26/219 .12
9 7/119 .06
10 7/64 .11
11 0/26 .00
12 0/11 .00


The point is more subtle than some will figure out.

f2tornado
05-05-2017, 08:06 AM
Fools? Using your number of starters, the outside 6 posts are still underrepresented on a per capita basis in the suprfecta relative to the inside. To use your baseball analogy, the inside 6 are batting .250 while the outside are batting .190. Why? The shortest distance around an oval is riding the rail.

AskinHaskin
05-05-2017, 09:12 AM
Fools? Using your number of starters, the outside 6 posts are still underrepresented on a per capita basis in the suprfecta relative to the inside. To use your baseball analogy, the inside 6 are batting .250 while the outside are batting .190. Why? The shortest distance around an oval is riding the rail.


SO then how's the #1 hole treating you?


(that's the shortest distance - everyone knows that)



You talk a great game... but you are "off" more than "slightly"

Thomas Roulston
05-05-2017, 09:34 AM
For the first time ever, post positions/saddle towels 21 and 22 are potentially in play (21 was in play once before; the also-eligible list was added in 2012).

Speaking of which, isn't it time to add 21 through 24 to the emoticon choices?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Saddle%20Towel%20Colors.pdf

TVG needs to add these to their graphics when covering foreign races also.

f2tornado
05-05-2017, 10:32 AM
SO then how's the #1 hole treating you?


(that's the shortest distance - everyone knows that)


You talk a great game... but you are "off" more than "slightly"

When is the last time you liked a horse that drew the 1 hole? When the day comes my top choice draws the rail I'll still bet it.

Here is a breakdown of wins and ITM finishes by post position (https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2017-kentucky-derby-post-positions-the-numbers). In general, outside posts have unperformed, particularly 17-20. If I ever like a horse out there enough then I certainly would not let the PP stop me from making a wager. I bet on Monarchos, Orb and AP... but if I'm on the fence than I'm more included to not use.

olddaddy
05-05-2017, 10:47 AM
For the first time ever, post positions/saddle towels 21 and 22 are potentially in play (21 was in play once before; the also-eligible list was added in 2012).

Speaking of which, isn't it time to add 21 through 24 to the emoticon choices?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Saddle%20Towel%20Colors.pdf

TVG needs to add these to their graphics when covering foreign races also.


Not this year

garyscpa
05-05-2017, 05:42 PM
I did a quick look since 2000. It was quick so I could be off slightly. Posts 15-20 have made up 13 trifecta positions and 3 additional spots on bottom of supers. Posts 1-6 have been in 19 trifecta positions and an additional 7 positions on bottom of super. Nutshell: Horses on the inside are more likely to hit the board than horses on the outside and have a higher superfecta impact value than horses on the outside.

It should be noted that it's almost 1/4 mile from the start to the first turn.

AskinHaskin
05-05-2017, 06:35 PM
When is the last time you liked a horse that drew the 1 hole?

That's just it, I loved the 1 hole in the walkover at Penn National.

And you can sure bet that the fools who print modern day post position stats gave #1 credit for still another victory.


So, ultimately, the pure crap you read about Derby posts hindering those drawn outside will always be just that, until post position stats are printed appropriately.

boys at tosconova
05-05-2017, 06:39 PM
Originally Posted by f2tornado

"When is the last time you liked a horse that drew the 1 hole?"

easy peezy. almost every harness race.....hahaha