H4C - Baseball Totals (2017 Season)

[horses4courses]

May 1st has come and gone....time for me to start betting baseball.
I stick to over/unders and, as some of you may recall, I have posted here
in the past with some success. Consistently close to a 60% win rate
over two seasons with 100 selections each time. Not too shabby.

Didn't get into it last year - was too busy at work.
Things have settled down some, so I will give it a try.
Let's see if I can maintain a positive ROI in May.
I figure to have somewhere between 20-25 plays this month.
Come June 1st, we'll see where we're at.

First play tomorrow Wed May 3rd:

TAM/MIA UNDER 8 -105 for 1 unit

Good luck!

(Plays will always be 1, or occasionally 2 units. Vig will be subtracted from returns.
Also, most plays will be posted the day before game goes. Rarely
I may post a play on game day - at least 30 mins before scheduled start time)

[horses4courses]

4 plays (1 unit each):

PIT/CIN UNDER 8.5 -120

ATL/NYM OVER 8.5 -110

BAL/BOS UNDER 10 -110

CWS/KC UNDER 7.5 -120

Good luck!

[Valuist]

4 plays (1 unit each):

PIT/CIN UNDER 8.5 -120

ATL/NYM OVER 8.5 -110

BAL/BOS UNDER 10 -110

CWS/KC UNDER 7.5 -120

Good luck!

I'm with you on that White Sox/Royals under. Royals really struggling at the plate this season.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Play OVER whenever Pelfrey pitches.

OVER definitely looks good at that new Atlanta park.

Now that Judge is the story, JUDGMENT Day cannot be far in the future. By July, the story will be, 'whatever happened to Judge?'

[horses4courses]

First two days 1-3 <2.35> units

No play Friday 5/5/17

[horses4courses]

One play:

BOS/MIL UNDER 8.5 -120 (1 unit)

[horses4courses]

2 plays (1 unit each):

NYM/MIL UNDER 9 -105

LAD/COL UNDER 11 -115

[horses4courses]

2 plays for 1 unit each:

MIN/CLE OVER 9 -105

SDG/CWS OVER 9 -110

[horses4courses]

Better this week, going 4-1.
Record now stands at 5-4 (+0.6 units)

No plays Monday May 15th.
Time to look over some numbers and make adjustments.

Hope to have something on Tuesday, or Wednesday.

[reckless]

Better this week, going 4-1.
Record now stands at 5-4 (+0.6 units)

No plays Monday May 15th.
Time to look over some numbers and make adjustments.

Hope to have something on Tuesday, or Wednesday.

Due to our 'history' in the political room, horsey, I'd be the last guy on earth to try to give you advice.... but.... you can't go wrong betting the over and betting against in all games my Mets play until this sinking ship is righted, if ever.

[horses4courses]

One play.

MIL/SDG UNDER 7.5 -105

[horses4courses]

4 plays:

TAM/CLE UNDER 9.5 EVEN

SEA/OAK OVER 8.5 -105

PHA/TEX OVER 10 EVEN

COL/MIN OVER 8.5 -110

[horses4courses]

1 play:

CWS/SEA OVER 8 -105

[horses4courses]

KC/MIN UNDER 8.5 -110

[HoofedInTheChest]

Toronto (Bolsinger) @ Baltimore (Gausman) Over 9 -110

[horses4courses]

4 plays today:

WAS/ATL OVER 8.5 -115

MIA/LAD OVER 9 -120

SFG/STL OVER 9 EVEN

GM1 KC/MIN UNDER 9 -105

[HoofedInTheChest]

1/1

Texas (Griffin) @ Toronto (Bolsinger) Under 9.5 +100

[HoofedInTheChest]

1/2

Toronto -1.5 (Liriano) @ Texas +1.5 (Martinez)

[ElKabong]

1/2

Toronto -1.5 (Liriano) @ Texas +1.5 (Martinez)

Serious observation here. Liriano had nothing tonight, the Rangers touched him up pretty hard. No command on his slider, flat fastball. When I saw his inflated ERA to start the game I was really surprised. When I saw his stuff, I didn't think he'd last 3 innings.

Your bet was a good one, just didn't come through. They hit Martinez hard, but at people. Better situational hitting in the middle innings would have turned the outcome around.

[HoofedInTheChest]

I can definitely see why the Pirates were only too quick to give up on Liriano. He’s got to be amongst the most frustrating pitchers to watch – you never know which version you’re going to get. It’s like having a left-handed, more-expensive version of Brandon Morrow.

I thought he had turned a corner in his last outing, after coming back from a shoulder injury. He averages 7 runs a game in support this season, so it wasn’t that far-fetched to think that they wouldn’t cover the spread.

The first inning continues to be a problem for the Jays, they have a 6.30 ERA as a group in the 1st. Batters hitting .289/.347/.484 – this actually isn’t that much worse than league average at .270/.335/.450. But League ERA in the 1st is only 4.77 though.

.500 seems to be elusive for the Jays this season, they have been outscored 56-19, and are 0-8 when the team is 1 game below .500, i should have known.

I have to give Martinez credit, he had a very good outing, the game was over in the first.

[Valuist]

Totals have been tough this year with the juiced ball. I don't know why the sport has to tamper with results. Everyone knows the ball is loaded with nitroglycerine this year.

[ElKabong]

When the steroid era ran I was totally disinterested in MLB. It was like slow pitch

I heard about a month ago that there are more HRs / K's / walks (cumulative) per AB than in the past. Makes for a boring product. It's a shame b/c baseball is the perfect sport (imo)

[HoofedInTheChest]

Totals have been tough this year with the juiced ball. I don't know why the sport has to tamper with results. Everyone knows the ball is loaded with nitroglycerine this year.
Oh ya, the month of May saw 1,060 home runs hit, the second-highest total for a single month in Major League history. It fell nine homers shy of 1,069, the record for May and any calendar month set during the 2000 season.

A new record was set this June with over 1070 home runs hit. In the history of the league, we have never seen back to back months with at least 1000 home runs. Juicy?

[HoofedInTheChest]

NEW YORK — Marcus Stroman has an idea who's to blame for all the nagging blisters bothering pitchers lately. He's pointing a finger at Major League Baseball.

"I feel like it's an epidemic that's happening across the big leagues now, a bunch of pitchers getting blisters, guys who have never had blisters before. So for MLB to turn their back to it, I think that's kind of crazy," the Toronto Blue Jays right-hander said. "I have no theory. But obviously, I mean, it's not a coincidence that it's happening to so many guys all of a sudden. It's not a coincidence."

Asked if he was implying all the blisters have something to do with an altered baseball, he would only repeat: "It's not a coincidence."

[Valuist]

Lower seams on the ball is the culprit. It also causes less drag so the ball travels further. It also is causing more blister issues for pitchers. An absolute joke that MLB is trying to deny.

FWIW, the first two days after the All-Star break have produced about 62% unders the previous 5 years. It makes sense; rested bullpens and starters. Hitting is so much about timing, that it can be a bit disrupted after 4-5 days off.

[horses4courses]

Starting another thread on this for 2018.
Had taken some losses last year, and it
was turning into a lot of work for no return.
Did not have the time or energy to right the ship. :bang:

Added some filters this year - so there will be fewer plays.
Not expecting to have more than a few picks per week this time.
Two sessions of 100 picks the previous two seasons were both profitable.
This year there will be closer to half that many plays.

Should be posting something tomorrow for Wednesday's games.


Good luck to all!!! :ThmbUp: