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PaceAdvantage
05-02-2017, 07:33 PM
Posted as many as 243 picks on here and shown a profit? How about elsewhere? Twitter? Another forum?

I am currently doing just that...albeit it's a very meager 1.01 ROI...:lol:

And no, this ROI doesn't include Green Gratto...:rolleyes:

Not saying it's going to last, but just saying...of all the people who have ever posted picks on here, hardly anyone keeps track long term.

I remember one guy who posted 100 picks and showed a positive ROI but then stopped.

It's all in the SELECTIONS forum under the "Value Races and Horses" threads.

I know, not much value...but I'm going to keep it going. Sooner or later I'm going to hit a few bombs and watch that ROI balloon...it's bound to happen.

:lol:

KidCapper
05-02-2017, 08:55 PM
Heck of a run boss. And kudos for keeping track that long.:headbanger:

Jeff P
05-02-2017, 09:03 PM
Not trying to take anything away from what you've done Mike.

In my opinion you should be damn proud of what you've accomplished because most of us know how hard it is to do in the first place.

That said, it's been several years since I've seen anyone post several hundred selections at positive roi - but it has been done before:

I think Steve Wolson did it (500 selections if I recall correctly) using his Powerline V5 program.

Then there were those yearly PAIHL contests where 3 players made selections as a team for 15 weeks per season times 8 races per week times 3 selections per race.

If I recall correctly the selections were weighted... the top selection was where you were scored as having bet the most, the middle selection next, and the third selection had you betting the least.

But still... 8 races by 3 horses by 15 weeks works out to 360 selections per season.

I know there were multiple years when the JCapper team I was on showed a positive roi over the course of a season. There was also a second JCapper team that was plus roi over the course of a season.

And we weren't the only team to do that.

There were years when teams from RDSS were plus roi over the course of the season. And if I recall correctly they always managed to get hot in "the playoffs." :D:ThmbUp:

Also, what about all those AQU Inner P4 contests?

I never participated in one of those - but wouldn't players at the top of the leaderboard for each of those have made several hundred selections at plus roi over the course of a season?



-jp

.

Fred Mertz
05-02-2017, 09:36 PM
I went to Churchill Downs today.

Bet $81 and won $70. I'm a loser, but it was lots of fun.

They had about 4 horses schooling per race and I don't know if I saw the future Oaks or Derby winner. That brass bridle nameplate is difficult to read when they're 6 feet away.

Beautiful day and a good time was had by all.

PaceAdvantage
05-02-2017, 09:38 PM
I went to Churchill Downs today.

Bet $81 and won $70. I'm a loser, but it was lots of fun.

They had about 4 horses schooling per race and I don't know if I saw the future Oaks or Derby winner. That brass bridle nameplate is difficult to read when they're 6 feet away.

Beautiful day and a good time was had by all.Thanks for that. It really helped.

menifee
05-02-2017, 09:38 PM
Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.

PaceAdvantage
05-02-2017, 09:41 PM
Not trying to take anything away from what you've done Mike.

In my opinion you should be damn proud of what you've accomplished because most of us know how hard it is to do in the first place.

That said, it's been several years since I've seen anyone post several hundred selections at positive roi - but it has been done before:

I think Steve Wolson did it (500 selections if I recall correctly) using his Powerline V5 program.

Then there were those yearly PAIHL contests where 3 players made selections as a team for 15 weeks per season times 8 races per week times 3 selections per race.

If I recall correctly the selections were weighted... the top selection was where you were scored as having bet the most, the middle selection next, and the third selection had you betting the least.

But still... 8 races by 3 horses by 15 weeks works out to 360 selections per season.

I know there were multiple years when the JCapper team I was on showed a positive roi over the course of a season. There was also a second JCapper team that was plus roi over the course of a season.

And we weren't the only team to do that.

There were years when teams from RDSS were plus roi over the course of the season. And if I recall correctly they always managed to get hot in "the playoffs." :D:ThmbUp:

Also, what about all those AQU Inner P4 contests?

I never participated in one of those - but wouldn't players at the top of the leaderboard for each of those have made several hundred selections at plus roi over the course of a season?



-jp

.I hear ya Jeff. I was thinking more along the lines of individuals. I think I remember Wolson. Was that on here? It was a long time ago...can't remember. I can go for 500...should only take another month or so at this pace.

AQU P4 contest is only 8 races a weekend (1 pick 4 each day) for a little under 5 months. That's only about 150 or so races by my crazy gorilla math. And that's if you play ever contest day, which isn't required. Plus it's Pick 4s and not win bets like I'm doing.

In any event, it's quite rare. Very rare in fact. On this I think we can agree.

PaceAdvantage
05-02-2017, 09:41 PM
Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.No, no rebates in the ROI number. Just factoring in exactly the picks I've posted before the race in those threads.

Vinnie
05-02-2017, 10:01 PM
Mike:

That is some downright outstanding handicapping. Most sincerely, BIG TIME KUDOS to you!! :)

Stick
05-02-2017, 10:03 PM
I thought Ray posted positive for a year of harness picks a few years back. Way more than 200 picks if I am remembering right.

KyRacer
05-03-2017, 01:58 AM
Nice job PA. You make 3 players that I remember posting over 200 selections with a positive roi.

Back in 2012 atlasaxis beat Saratoga using Ray Taulbot's Pace Computer program. He had 208 selections posted on here. From his post:

Final stats for Saratoga 2012

Total: 208 selections, $416 wagered, $456.70 returned, 28 winners

win % = 13%
ave win mutuel = $16.31
roi = + 9.78


In 2004 Steve Wolsons posted his 500 picks with these results:

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%

A couple of different styles with win percentages of 13 and 32 and both returning around a 10% roi.

ultracapper
05-03-2017, 04:10 PM
I posted all my plays for the first quarter of 2016 in the selections forum and finished with a ROI just under $2.00 if I recall correctly. I think it was about 40 total races, so hardly the sample you have, but I tracked it for 3 months for all to see. It's deep in the selection forum history now.

PaceAdvantage
05-03-2017, 11:09 PM
Had a nice day today (4 for 12 $47.90 returned)...updated totals on the top pick overlay:

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (30 Days):

51 for 255 | $510 Wagered | $538.20 Returned | $1.06 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

AltonKelsey
05-04-2017, 02:12 AM
Nice job- are you factoring in rebates with ROI. If not, that is even more impressive. Love to know ROI with rebates.

One would assume with a break even roi, your profit would be whatever the rebate % is.

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2017, 03:36 AM
Thursday, top pick went 3 for 9 and returned $27.40

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (31 Days):

54 for 264 | $528 Wagered | $565.60 Returned | $1.07 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

PhantomOnTour
05-05-2017, 05:56 AM
Way to go Pace !
:ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2017, 01:56 AM
Brand new totals after today:

All plays went 4 for 22 and returned $66.00

Running total (OVERLAYS ONLY) (32 Days):

93 for 646 | $1292 Wagered | $1173.80 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 2 for 8 and returned $30.20

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (32 Days):

56 for 272 | $544 Wagered | $595.80 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

kingfin66
05-06-2017, 02:14 AM
Very nice! At one point will you determine that you should just stick with your top pick and not worry about overlays beyond your best play? 272 plays would seem to be getting into that territory.

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2017, 03:00 AM
Very nice! At one point will you determine that you should just stick with your top pick and not worry about overlays beyond your best play? 272 plays would seem to be getting into that territory.I made a slight tweak early this week...seems to be paying off on all fronts so far...if after another week or two the "All Plays" is still doing poorly, then I might have to face that choice.

It doesn't say much for the odds line if it can't detect an overlay beyond the top choice...does it?

thaskalos
05-06-2017, 03:10 AM
I made a slight tweak early this week...seems to be paying off on all fronts so far...if after another week or two the "All Plays" is still doing poorly, then I might have to face that choice.

It doesn't say much for the odds line if it can't detect an overlay beyond the top choice...does it?

Do you find no comfort in the fact that 98% of the horseplayers can't detect any actual overlays AT ALL?

classhandicapper
05-06-2017, 01:14 PM
Brand new totals after today:

All plays went 4 for 22 and returned $66.00

Running total (OVERLAYS ONLY) (32 Days):

93 for 646 | $1292 Wagered | $1173.80 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 2 for 8 and returned $30.20

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (32 Days):

56 for 272 | $544 Wagered | $595.80 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)



Great job. :ThmbUp:

I'm going to guess what you are experiencing is not particularly unusual.

Think of it this way. If you find an occasional legit terrible favorite (and pick someone else on top against him) you probably have a legit overlay. However, the remaining favorites, while perhaps not overlays, will probably outperform the take substantially. Mathematically that makes it's EXTREMELY difficult to find an overlay elsewhere in the same race.

It's WAY WAY harder to beat this game betting against legitimate favorites when they are also your top choice than when your top choice is a decent price.

With some exceptions you should probably just pass when your top choice is the favorite.

The only time I dip below my top choice is when the race is so wide open I am splitting hairs. Today's Derby would be an example of that. The other would be when the favorite is so horrible a few horses are an overlay.

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2017, 01:30 AM
Tracking after 5/6:

All plays went 10 for 63 and returned $122.80

Running total (OVERLAYS ONLY) (33 Days):

103 for 709 | $1418 Wagered | $1296.60 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 5 for 25 and returned $54.80

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (33 Days):

61 for 297 | $594 Wagered | $650.60 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

ReplayRandall
05-07-2017, 01:42 AM
Tracking after 5/6:

All plays went 10 for 63 and returned $122.80

Running total (OVERLAYS ONLY) (33 Days):

103 for 709 | $1418 Wagered | $1296.60 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 5 for 25 and returned $54.80

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (33 Days):

61 for 297 | $594 Wagered | $650.60 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
Quick thoughts....You might check the races where your TOP pick was the only overlay play in the race, and re-tabulate your ROI stats. I have a feeling you might find your ROI on OTHER plays might be higher when your TOP pick is NOT an overlay play in that race, maybe not.....This echoes Classy's earlier post....Worth a look.

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2017, 01:28 PM
Great job. :ThmbUp:

I'm going to guess what you are experiencing is not particularly unusual.

Think of it this way. If you find an occasional legit terrible favorite (and pick someone else on top against him) you probably have a legit overlay. However, the remaining favorites, while perhaps not overlays, will probably outperform the take substantially. Mathematically that makes it's EXTREMELY difficult to find an overlay elsewhere in the same race.

It's WAY WAY harder to beat this game betting against legitimate favorites when they are also your top choice than when your top choice is a decent price.

With some exceptions you should probably just pass when your top choice is the favorite.

The only time I dip below my top choice is when the race is so wide open I am splitting hairs. Today's Derby would be an example of that. The other would be when the favorite is so horrible a few horses are an overlay.Makes sense...food for though...thanks

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2017, 01:32 PM
Quick thoughts....You might check the races where your TOP pick was the only overlay play in the race, and re-tabulate your ROI stats. I have a feeling you might find your ROI on OTHER plays might be higher when your TOP pick is NOT an overlay play in that race, maybe not.....This echoes Classy's earlier post....Worth a look.If only I thought to keep better records...all I have right now is basically what you see on these threads...

I'd have to go all the way back to the beginning and formulate some sort of spreadsheet to take advantage of your idea...not sure that's going to happen though.

ReplayRandall
05-07-2017, 01:42 PM
If only I thought to keep better records...all I have right now is basically what you see on these threads...

I'd have to go all the way back to the beginning and formulate some sort of spreadsheet to take advantage of your idea...not sure that's going to happen though.
You might as well start now.....Don't want to leave money on the table, do you?..:coffee:

PaceAdvantage
05-08-2017, 12:24 AM
Well, 5/7 was one of my worst days in a while...

All plays went 3 for 32 and returned $42.80

Running total (OVERLAYS ONLY) (34 Days):

106 for 741 | $1482 Wagered | $1339.40 returned | $0.90 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 0 for 13 and returned $0

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (34 Days):

61 for 310 | $620 Wagered | $650.60 Returned | $1.05 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

ultracapper
05-08-2017, 04:50 AM
It's got to happen once in awhile. What I'm finding interesting is that your strike rate is staying right around 20% for your top picks, and your ROI on those is quite acceptable. Lesson for all that the quality of winner is more important than the quantity.

PaceAdvantage
05-13-2017, 02:56 AM
Just thought I'd update the record after today's bout of action:

All plays went 11 for 49 and returned $119.90

ALL PLAYS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (39 Days):

124 for 844 | $1688 Wagered | $1574.70 returned | $0.93 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 9 for 23 and returned $79.70

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (39 Days):

73 for 352 | $704 Wagered | $776.50 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Franco Santiago
05-15-2017, 09:46 PM
Just thought I'd update the record after today's bout of action:

All plays went 11 for 49 and returned $119.90

ALL PLAYS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (39 Days):

124 for 844 | $1688 Wagered | $1574.70 returned | $0.93 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

Top pick went 9 for 23 and returned $79.70

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (39 Days):

73 for 352 | $704 Wagered | $776.50 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

PA: Well done, sir! Hope you are getting in on the action with real money.

May I ask, are you playing specific tracks or does your system or methodology search through ALL tracks and look for specific spots?

And, also, are you segmenting by class, surface, distance? Just curious. Thanks and I wish you continued success.

PaceAdvantage
05-16-2017, 12:19 AM
PA: Well done, sir! Hope you are getting in on the action with real money.

May I ask, are you playing specific tracks or does your system or methodology search through ALL tracks and look for specific spots?

And, also, are you segmenting by class, surface, distance? Just curious. Thanks and I wish you continued success.Looking at every race at every track I can get my hands on...but only betting races at those tracks that appear wider open...generally with larger fields (or shorter fields that look especially evenly matched).

My goal is to seek out races where the public might get it a bit wrong somewhere along the line...

Here are current stats after today:

ALL PLAYS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (41 Days):

130 for 916 | $1832 Wagered | $1658.10 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

TOP PICK ONLY (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (41 Days):

78 for 383 | $766 Wagered | $824.50 Returned | $1.08 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2017, 02:34 PM
I found Steve Wolson's record after his 500 post run...

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%

Looks like I'm going to finish my 500 run with a similar ROI...I'm at 11% right now after 449 races. I think I'll play until I go over 500 races to try and beat him...:lol:

thaskalos
05-22-2017, 09:09 AM
I found Steve Wolson's record after his 500 post run...

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%

Looks like I'm going to finish my 500 run with a similar ROI...I'm at 11% right now after 449 races. I think I'll play until I go over 500 races to try and beat him...:lol:

I remember buying and using all of Steve Wolson's handicapping systems...but I never had the success with them that he apparently has. I wonder what I did wrong...

PaceAdvantage
05-29-2017, 01:11 AM
I found Steve Wolson's record after his 500 post run...

500 plays - 158 win ( 32% winners)
$1000 bet - $1107.40, profit +$107.40, ROI +11%Well, I couldn't beat him. Hit the 500 mark today and here is my record after 500 plays:

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (53 Days):

108 for 500 | $1000 Wagered | $1093.80 Returned | $1.09 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

500 plays - 108 win (22% winners)
$1000 bet - $1093.80, profit +$93.80, ROI +9%