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arw629
05-02-2017, 12:57 PM
I know the post draw isn't out yet but who are some horses that you think are going to be shorter and longer odds than some might guess.....I think Irap will be shorter odds than 15-1 and I am all on board...he is figuring it all out at the right time and more distance is a good thing IMO. ...no reason he can't move forward off of his last.....I think McCracken goes off higher than many think to the tune of 15-1 ....I just think he isn't fast enough and has already peaked and the money bet will reflect that

I think distance really negatively effects McCracken 's kick

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 01:15 PM
https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/859441138557759488

Mc990
05-02-2017, 01:52 PM
I know the post draw isn't out yet but who are some horses that you think are going to be shorter and longer odds than some might guess.....I think Irap will be shorter odds than 15-1 and I am all on board...he is figuring it all out at the right time and more distance is a good thing IMO. ...no reason he can't move forward off of his last.....I think McCracken goes off higher than many think to the tune of 15-1 ....I just think he isn't fast enough and has already peaked and the money bet will reflect that

I think distance really negatively effects McCracken 's kick

0% chance that Irap goes off shorter than McCraken.

Yes, he's a little slow but even though he's a little slow on TG and Rags, many of those guys will be playing him on pattern. He's also gonna be taking money from the "workout" guys.

Therein lies the rub with the horse... You're almost assuredly betting him on the come but he's showing every indication of a forward moving horse.

He's 3rd choice. Potentially slight 4th behind IWC.

The good news is if you like Irap, you're going to be getting north of 20-1. What indications do you have that he will go shorter than 15-1??

Best of luck this weekend.

arw629
05-02-2017, 05:27 PM
0% chance that Irap goes off shorter than McCraken.

Yes, he's a little slow but even though he's a little slow on TG and Rags, many of those guys will be playing him on pattern. He's also gonna be taking money from the "workout" guys.

Therein lies the rub with the horse... You're almost assuredly betting him on the come but he's showing every indication of a forward moving horse.

He's 3rd choice. Potentially slight 4th behind IWC.

The good news is if you like Irap, you're going to be getting north of 20-1. What indications do you have that he will go shorter than 15-1??

Best of luck this weekend.

I saw an offshore website the other day browsing have Irap at 14-1 and today I just stumbled on this http://www.vegasinsider.com/horse-racing/story.cfm/story/1815892
And if you visit the website that is not a typo. ..they have Irap at 11/2

jay68802
05-02-2017, 08:46 PM
Patch will NOT be 40-1, More like 10-1 or lower. Thunder Snow will be backed down to around 20-1.

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 08:57 PM
Patch will NOT be 40-1, More like 10-1 or lower. Thunder Snow will be backed down to around 20-1.

what? :confused:

jay68802
05-02-2017, 09:06 PM
what? :confused:
Ok maybe not under 10-1 but is going to bet down alot lower than most people think.

Mc990
05-02-2017, 09:08 PM
Patch will NOT be 40-1, More like 10-1 or lower. Thunder Snow will be backed down to around 20-1.

What makes you think this?

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 09:10 PM
Ok maybe not under 10-1 but is going to bet down alot lower than most people think.

those are projected morning lines

jay68802
05-02-2017, 09:21 PM
First just my opinion is that Patch is better than 40-1. I think more like 20 to 25-1. Then tonight our local news station did a segment on the derby and stated that according to " some Vegas odds makers " that Patch might be among the betting favorites. I thought it was interesting.

Mc990
05-02-2017, 09:35 PM
Yup. It's that time of year.

boys at tosconova
05-02-2017, 10:25 PM
Then tonight our local news station did a segment on the derby and stated that according to " some Vegas odds makers " that Patch might be among the betting favorites. I thought it was interesting.

https://discourse-cdn.global.ssl.fastly.net/boingboing/uploads/default/original/3X/b/d/bde096576a8fc5017f331e6153df1bc038430fb5.gif



Yup. It's that time of year.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/d0aaad0b807632fd76edafb19f009648/tumblr_mtnclb27qQ1so5joko1_500.gif

letswastemoney
05-02-2017, 10:31 PM
Patch will be very attractive to casual bettors. How can you not love a horse with one eye?

dballard125
05-02-2017, 11:38 PM
Yup. It's that time of year.


Exactly lol.