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PowerUpPaynter
05-01-2017, 09:19 PM
https://twitter.com/HorseGirlAmy/status/859070666292809730



Certainly looks the part... Exotics bomber? Was his last work too fast?

f2tornado
05-01-2017, 10:03 PM
Are we overthinking it? What's the difference between Giacomo and Sonneteer? Giacomo Brisnet E2 was 20 points higher while his LP was only 8 smaller. I simply cannot find a Derby winning horse that had pace numbers like Sonneteer going into the race. I didn't look close at board hitters but didn't notice any of those either.

Remember, these are the Brisnet Derby pars.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED
93 102/ 92 102

Sonneteer (in the Ark):
71 75/ 109 94

Golden Soul (LA Derby)
83 96/ 100 100

Commanding Curve (LA Derby)
84 102/ 91 98

Sonneteer is most likely a toss from my tickets. The only pause is he is a RAN sire line. He couldn't get to the front in the Ark and will have more horses and better horses to pass this time. His pace pars simply do not fit the exotics bomber role. Girvin, Patch, State of Honor, and Practical Joke more closely fit the board buster pace figs. They are also a combined 17 for 20 hitting the board (with SoH taking the three hits).

Lemon Drop Husker
05-01-2017, 10:03 PM
Really really interesting horse.

Supposedly bred for sprinting with Midnight Lute on top; this guy likes to come from well off the pace.

Will need more than what he has shown thus far, but the extra 1/8th shouldn't hurt this guy in the least.

Biggest question is after 10 career races, how much better can he get, and can he actually win a race like this as a maiden while likely needing to avoid a number of other horses in his way as he may well be 18th, 19th, or 20th at 1st call?

Classic Empire is the likely chalk after his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby. How about this guy that was making up ground on the likely favorite in that one while finishing a closing 2 lengths back at 9 panels.

I think he is a must include in Tris and Supers, but difficult to see better for an 0 for 10 horse in the Kentucky freaking Derby.

letswastemoney
05-01-2017, 10:09 PM
Like a lot of these come-from-behind horses, I think he's fine as a late closer who could pick up 3rd or 4th late. He's not talented enough to get any closer.

PowerUpPaynter
05-01-2017, 10:15 PM
Are we overthinking it? What's the difference between Giacomo and Sonneteer? Giacomo Brisnet E2 was 20 points higher while his LP was only 8 smaller. I simply cannot find a Derby winning horse that had pace numbers like Sonneteer going into the race. I didn't look close at board hitters but didn't notice any of those either.

Remember, these are the Brisnet Derby pars.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED
93 102/ 92 102

Sonneteer (in the Ark):
71 75/ 109 94

Golden Soul (LA Derby)
83 96/ 100 100

Commanding Curve (LA Derby)
84 102/ 91 98

Sonneteer is most likely a toss from my tickets. The only pause is he is a RAN sire line. He couldn't get to the front in the Ark and will have more horses and better horses to pass this time. His pace pars simply do not fit the exotics bomber role. Girvin, Patch, State of Honor, and Practical Joke more closely fit the board buster pace figs. They are also a combined 17 for 20 hitting the board (with SoH taking the three hits).

What are the pace figures for Practical Joke and State Of Honor?

Lemon Drop Husker
05-01-2017, 10:19 PM
What are the pace figures for Practical Joke and State Of Honor?

PJ: 87/101/93 Final Spd of 99

SOH: 91/98/92 Final Spd of 97

Early Bris form here: https://downthestretchs.com/

PowerUpPaynter
05-01-2017, 10:32 PM
PJ: 87/101/93 Final Spd of 99

SOH: 91/98/92 Final Spd of 97

Early Bris form here: https://downthestretchs.com/

thats cool, one of my bet ideas i had scribbled down was.

$1 Tri = $50

Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, McCraken, Gunnevera, Hence w/
Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, McCraken, Gunnevera, Hence, Practical Joke, State Of Honor w/
Practical Joke, State Of Honor


like it even better now...

which brings me to my next question, amd I the only degen thats been carrying around a crumpled up piece of paper for a week with random bet ideas on it and crossed out etc etc etc....

Lemon Drop Husker
05-01-2017, 10:50 PM
thats cool, one of my bet ideas i had scribbled down was.

$1 Tri = $50

Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, McCraken, Gunnevera, Hence w/
Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, McCraken, Gunnevera, Hence, Practical Joke, State Of Honor w/
Practical Joke, State Of Honor


like it even better now...

which brings me to my next question, amd I the only degen thats been carrying around a crumpled up piece of paper for a week with random bet ideas on it and crossed out etc etc etc....

Maybe.

I don't even think of bet structures for the Derby until at least an hour before the race. I'll have horses I like, but so many things change and you don't ever want to be stuck into something with track variants, scratches, hot jockeys, etc.

Not too mention, I HAVE to see them on the track. What if the horse you like is a complete mess in the post parade? What if 2 or 3 of your structure betting horses look like hot garbage?

magwell
05-02-2017, 01:46 AM
That was a nice move, he's still in the game for me as of right now....:)

letswastemoney
05-02-2017, 11:51 AM
The fit some people are throwing over Sonneteer qualifying for the Kentucky Derby as a maiden is dumb.

He qualified fair and square. Horses can't earn as many points as he did without having ability.

I think he has no shot to win, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be in the field.