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PowerUpPaynter
05-01-2017, 08:28 PM
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USKY1096:1:US

uh oh looks like another wrinkle to handicap.

Todaysracingdigest
05-01-2017, 09:12 PM
Per the Digest sire stats by win percentage for mud progeny:

Irish War Cry 19%
McCraken 19%
Practical Joke 19%
Battle Of Midway 18%
Tapwrit 18%
Royal Mo 18%
Irap 17%
Lookin At Lee 17%
Classic Empire 16%
Gormley 16%
Hence 15%
J Boys Echo 15%
Sonneteer 15%
Girvin 13%
Always Dreaming 12%
Untrapped 11%
Fast And Accurate 9%
State of Honor 8%
Patch 7%


*Gunnevera and Thunder Snow had no sire mud record

f2tornado
05-01-2017, 09:21 PM
Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.

Fager Fan
05-01-2017, 11:54 PM
Yet another reason to like IWC.

v j stauffer
05-02-2017, 01:12 AM
Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.

I'm going with this guy.

Great forecast!

tanner12oz
05-02-2017, 06:48 AM
From.what I saw it didn't look that ominous

upthecreek
05-02-2017, 07:14 AM
From.what I saw it didn't look that ominous

According to my weather channel app, 90% chance of rain Friday and 70% Sat

BettinBilly
05-02-2017, 02:35 PM
I'm going with this guy.

Great forecast!

Me too. Can't argue with that prediction. Although.... it is weather. The only thing certain is uncertainty.

linrom1
05-02-2017, 02:41 PM
Once upon a time I was paid to forecast the weather for Lexington, KY among other places. A quick glace at the model forecast guidance suggests Friday could be a crappy but improving day followed by decent conditions Saturday. It could be pretty wet Wed/Thurs. I will cap for a Good to Fast main track Friday and Fast track Saturday. Turf probably listed Good Friday and Firm Saturday.

Weather Underground forecasts almost an inch of rain on Thur and 0.3" rain on Fri. In my opinion that would make the TURF yielding for Friday and good to yielding on Sat?

f2tornado
05-02-2017, 03:16 PM
The system looks a little slower so conditions may not improve until late Friday afternoon. Rain on Friday will be light so the track might not be too bad but probably running slow. There looks to be a break between Thursday rain and Friday showers so the turf might still dry out enough to be Good. Saturday still looks decent overall. Can't rule out a later day shower but certainly no washout. The track should be fast for the Derby.

rastajenk
05-02-2017, 05:00 PM
Weather may not affect the race, but it looks to be a cool and raw day for the on-track patrons. There will have been nicer-weather Derbies, for sure.