HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 4/30

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields All 10 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 3 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #3 - #7 - #9

BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.


R#1 - 1400M (7F) T……...4-5 W/ 8-10-1-7 ........1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1200M (6F) T….......10-1 W/ 9-5-4-2 …...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1400M (7F) T..........8-7 W/ 3-9-13-4.........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1400M (7F) T …....3-4 W/ 7-5-8-9………2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1600M (8F) T …….2-1 W/ 5-10-3-7..........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 2400M (12F) T…....1-3 W/ 5-2-9-12……..3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T..........1-2 W/ 4-3-8-9............4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 2000M (10F) T.…...1-4 W/ 5-2-6 …….….4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1200M (6F) T.….....4-12 W/ 3-10-11-5 …..5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1600M (8F) T..........1-4 W/ 2-3-7-12 ….....5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins..

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Have taken a breather from races except on occasion but just wanted to say "Tear it muthatrucka". Kick a hole in it Nitro. Good to see ya!

[Nitro]

Have taken a breather from races except on occasion but just wanted to say "Tear it muthatrucka". Kick a hole in it Nitro. Good to see ya!

Thanks Cincy! Welcome back!:ThmbUp:

Why not hang out this morning and make some money. I've got some good feelings about this card!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 4-5 W/ 8-10-1-7 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 1-10-4-13 –Live Dutch 58% Profit Margin – HIT

5th choice $11.10 Early & 3rd choice Live & $56.50 QUIN / $396.60 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 4.5 6.2 BET PRF
$6 $11 $14
$14 $8 $6 $29 $17 58%
$46 $46 $46

[Tee]

:3:

[Nitro]

R#2 - 10-1 W/ 9-5-4-2 - All of that one! (w/#8 Tote Watch - Fin 1st)

Live Tote Results: 8-5-1-10 – Dutch 51% Profit Margin - HIT

Out Early & 2nd choice $7.70 Live –& $37.10 QUIN / $203.20 TRI BX (w/#8 Tote watch 2nd Live choice)

Winner (w/Moreira on-board) got solid action as Top choice in the O.A. betting!
You’ve got to watch the board in HK!

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.9 4.1 BET PRF
$8 $10 $10
$10 $8 $8 $26 $13 51%
$39 $39 $39

[Tee]

:11:

[oughtoh]

Nice pick Tee

[Nitro]

:11:

Nice call there Tee!
Was that you sending it in at 2mins to post?

[Nitro]

R#3 - 8-7 W/ 3-9-13-4 -

Live Tote Results: 11-2-9-6 – Dutch 105% Profit Margin - OUT

Out Early & Live – Very Late action on that Winner but it wasn't on the radar

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 - Dutch OUT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 10.0 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $22 $24
$24 $7 $6 $37 $39 105%
$77 $77 $77

[Tee]

Nice call there Tee!
Was that you sending it in at 2mins to post?

On the coattails Nitro, on the coattails. :)

[Tee]

Nice pick Tee

Thank you very much!!

[Tee]

:2: :7: :12: with :3:

[Nitro]

R#4 - 3-4 W/ 7-5-8-9 - All of that one! (w/#1 Tote Watch – Fin 2nd)

Live Tote Results: 7-1-8-3 – Dutch 42% Profit Margin - PASS

3rd choice $14.00 Early & 2nd choice Live & $103.90 QUIN/ $1853.80 TRI BX (w/#1 Tote watch 6th choice Live - lots of action in the Quinella pools!)

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.0 6.0 15.0 BET PRF
$4 $14 $32
$32 $9 $4 $45 $19 42%
$64 $64 $64

[Tee]

:1: & :13:

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-1 W/ 5-10-3-7 - All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 1-7-5-11 – Dutch 44% Profit Margin - PASS

2nd choice $15.60 Early & Live & $32.00 QUIN / $211.00 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.3 6.7 6.8 BET PRF
$5 $15 $16
$16 $5 $5 $25 $11 44%
$36 $36 $36

[Tee]

:10: :1:

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-3 W/ 5-2-9-12 – All of that one! (w/#6 Tote Watch - Fin 3rd)

Live Tote Results: 3-5-6-9- – Dutch 23% Profit Margin - PASS

2nd choice $4.30 Early & Top choice Live & $17.20 QUIN / $107.20 TRI BX (w/#6 Tote watch 4th choice Live)

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 3.7 7.0 BET PRF
$4 $9 $16
$16 $7 $4 $27 $6 23%
$34 $34 $34

[Tee]

:7:

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 4-3-8-9

Live Tote Results: 4-8-7-11 – Dutch 157% Profit Margin - HIT

3rd choice $13.90 Early & 2nd choice Live & $13.20 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
6.3 6.6 7.3 BET PRF
$15 $15 $17
$17 $16 $15 $47 $74 157%
$121 $121 $121

[Tee]

:4:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-4 W/ 5-2-6 - All of that one! (w/#8 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)

Live Tote Results: 5-8-1-4 - Dutch -7% Profit Margin - PASS

3rd choice $9.00 Early & Live & $13.30 QUIN / $52.60 TRI BX (w/#8 Tote watch 2nd choice Live)

Pakistan Star ran its best race yet in defeat! Got solid betting, but so did the Winner w/who else but Moreira on board!

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.0 1.8 3.5 BET PRF
$4 $6 $9
$9 $6 $4 $19 -$1 -7%
$18 $18 $18

[Tee]

:1: :10: :13:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 4-12 W/ 3-10-11-5 - All of that one! (w/#6 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)

Live Tote Results: 3-6-12-10 - Dutch 75% Profit Margin – HIT

3rd choice $17.30 Early & Live & $185.00 QUIN / $1491.80 TRI BX (w/#6 Tote watch 6th choice Live)

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.6 8.0 BET PRF
$6 $17 $18
$18 $6 $6 $30 $22 75%
$52 $52 $52

[Tee]

:1: :3: / :2: :4: :8: :9: :11: :12:

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-4 W/ 2-3-7-12 -

Live Tote Results: 4-3-9-8 - Dutch 36% Profit Margin - PASS

2nd choice $6.80 Early & Top choice Live & $29.60 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.4 7.3 BET PRF
$6 $7 $17
$17 $15 $6 $38 $14 36%
$51 $51 $51



O.A. Win Dutching Summary – 10 Races

4 HITS – 1 OUT – 5 PASSED