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PowerUpPaynter
04-29-2017, 12:28 PM
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Dew/Kentucky_Derby_2017_Friday_Random_Thoughts_123#

The above article I found as a great read and wanted to pass it along. Makes me want to ask the question. How much do you stick to the information youve learned from the first pts race thru the Arkansas Derby and how much you let the chatter change your mind from the Arkansas Derby thru race day?

lamboguy
04-29-2017, 01:19 PM
a lot changes with those horses between the prep races and first saturday. the race is always impossible to handicap and if you do handicap it more than likely you will be on one of the top 4 choices in the betting pools.

jay68802
04-29-2017, 01:27 PM
You started a thread (tosses), i posted that Hence was a horse i was tossing. After reading some of the opinions on this site, i went back and looked again at this horse. After that i thought i might have to use him in the derby. Then, a couple days later i watched his Sunland Derby and now am back with my original point of view. Good thing there is only a week left before the derby, because i can only change my mind 7 more times.

PhantomOnTour
04-29-2017, 01:29 PM
I am sticking to my Gunnevera

f2tornado
04-29-2017, 01:34 PM
Yep. Even if one of my choices draws the rail or 17 hole.

LottaKash
04-29-2017, 03:05 PM
* Most WEIGHT ever carried....

* Most DISTANCE ever travelled....

I stick to these same sobering premises with every new iteration of the Derby....

Murph
04-29-2017, 09:48 PM
* Most WEIGHT ever carried....

* Most DISTANCE ever travelled....

I stick to these same sobering premises with every new iteration of the Derby.... This one rings a huge bell for me!

Weight over distance, a classic factor too often under used in modern handicapping. I'm keeping this one near the top of my list LK, thanks. Classic reminder.

CincyHorseplayer
04-30-2017, 01:47 AM
I am sticking to my Gunnevera

I am sticking to this and it's 1 race theory. Buildup is great! I have had to timeout myself on this so I am not offering my own psychotic version of Derby fever! Sticking to my guns to POT!

CincyHorseplayer
04-30-2017, 01:50 AM
You started a thread (tosses), i posted that Hence was a horse i was tossing. After reading some of the opinions on this site, i went back and looked again at this horse. After that i thought i might have to use him in the derby. Then, a couple days later i watched his Sunland Derby and now am back with my original point of view. Good thing there is only a week left before the derby, because i can only change my mind 7 more times.

Last line is a classic J!

Nitro
04-30-2017, 02:22 AM
None of the above! :eek:

PhantomOnTour
04-30-2017, 02:30 AM
None of the above! :eek:

We know Nitro, we know...you'll be playing Hong Kong :lol:

Nitro
04-30-2017, 03:23 AM
We know Nitro, we know...you'll be playing Hong Kong :lol:

I will be playing HK, but not on SAT afternoon!

So tell us what you'll use to get a winning play in the Derby?

PhantomOnTour
04-30-2017, 03:28 AM
I will be playing HK, but not on SAT afternoon!

So tell us what you'll use to get a winning play in the Derby?

It was a joke Nitro..easy mon!

burnsy
04-30-2017, 08:58 AM
Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.

Keep it real. :cool:

Robert Fischer
04-30-2017, 04:57 PM
Derby Week chatter is a good example of the things that our brain's Conformation Bias has evolved to protect us from.

In general, we should stick to our guns.


However, nothing beats skilled unbiased, rational application of true insight.

CincyHorseplayer
04-30-2017, 09:56 PM
I've hired a sniper with a tranquilizer gun. The favorite will not be winning. Bet accordingly!

Julz
04-30-2017, 10:28 PM
Good man, Cincy!! I always said that should be an option from the stands.

glengarry
05-01-2017, 12:06 PM
Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.

Keep it real. :cool:

Have to disagree. The KD presents the greatest single race opportunity for a life changing score. Take a stand, and live with the results. I have turned major scores into minor ones too often by hedging my bets. The KD is no time to take an "interim position".

boys at tosconova
05-01-2017, 08:19 PM
what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .

Racetrack Playa
05-01-2017, 08:38 PM
you meant 1/4 of the polled, right:ThmbUp:

glengarry
05-01-2017, 08:59 PM
what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .

Let's just stick with works. Most important? No. Essential. Without a doubt. Betting off works alone is pointless, but not giving careful consideration to how a horse is working, especially for this race, is just plain foolish.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-01-2017, 10:12 PM
what i find to be alarming is that 1/3 of people taking this poll find that the derby works, physical appearance, "buzz" or colorful articles to be most important. people are far too easily manipulated or swayed over things they shouldn't be .

Well, no offense, but the question is way too black and white with only 2 answers.

I think most will sit somewhere in between. Firm believer in the last 2 preps with more weight given to the 9F preps, but one simply cannot ignore works and/or 'shape' of the horse.

Take Girvin as an example. You don't think his 'shape' coming into the Derby should be a consideration?

magwell
05-02-2017, 01:36 AM
I am sticking to my GunneveraRight now, he's one many I'll take a stand against especially if he gets a bad draw........;)

burnsy
05-02-2017, 10:11 AM
Have to disagree. The KD presents the greatest single race opportunity for a life changing score. Take a stand, and live with the results. I have turned major scores into minor ones too often by hedging my bets. The KD is no time to take an "interim position".

How are you going to make a score like that betting one horse? Bet 10,000 to win? That's what I don't understand about people on here. They are all "rah, rah" about one horse.....its hilarious. I've had many I've had to sign for in my life time. Every year the guy that does my taxes asks....."how many this year?" With account wagering there's no way I can get around it. Some of the longshots have been given out on here in the selections portion since I've been on here. Never once in my life did a score like that involve just one horse. I'm not talking about hedging, I'm talking about incorporating horses to hit a big ticket.

My biggest pick 3 and 4 tickets have involved the "all" button on days like this when people are making some ridiculous odds on a race horse.....that loses. All you need is a key horse and a supporting cast. That post was meant for people that love one horse and think they are going to score with it alone.

If you can tell me how to make a huge score on one horse without betting a ton to win, I'm all ears. :)

I'm just saying I wont be betting "Win" in the Derby, I'm looking for Exactas, pic 3 and 4 and the double. Pretty much what you just said, but somehow we are in disagreement? I just don't get some people. :bang:

PhantomOnTour
05-02-2017, 10:30 AM
Right now, he's one many I'll take a stand against especially if he gets a bad draw........;)

He's my choice, but the recent defection of some speed from the field has me a bit worried about him getting home first

yankeelpn
05-02-2017, 12:20 PM
Does anyone else think that Gunnevera looks tired/not eager?? Or is that just how he is when he trains?

glengarry
05-02-2017, 12:25 PM
How are you going to make a score like that betting one horse? Bet 10,000 to win? That's what I don't understand about people on here. They are all "rah, rah" about one horse.....its hilarious. I've had many I've had to sign for in my life time. Every year the guy that does my taxes asks....."how many this year?" With account wagering there's no way I can get around it. Some of the longshots have been given out on here in the selections portion since I've been on here. Never once in my life did a score like that involve just one horse. I'm not talking about hedging, I'm talking about incorporating horses to hit a big ticket.

My biggest pick 3 and 4 tickets have involved the "all" button on days like this when people are making some ridiculous odds on a race horse.....that loses. All you need is a key horse and a supporting cast. That post was meant for people that love one horse and think they are going to score with it alone.

If you can tell me how to make a huge score on one horse without betting a ton to win, I'm all ears. :)

I'm just saying I wont be betting "Win" in the Derby, I'm looking for Exactas, pic 3 and 4 and the double. Pretty much what you just said, but somehow we are in disagreement? I just don't get some people. :bang:

Actually, we are in total agreement. I go after the exotics, but not by spreading on the win end. Just my opinion, but if one feels the need to use 5 horses in the win slot, then they don't have an opinion on the race. I know plenty of "spreaders", and most cash a lot of tax tickets. They also burn through a lot of money. I have not made a win bet in the KD in a long time. This race is not the time to take 10 to one on the win end. I can do that on any given day. I'm looking out fill out a ticket. In a 20 horse field, with chaos of some sort usually a given, it's hard enough to construct a ticket with any confidence with one horse on top, let alone multiple horses. But feel free to do it your way.

burnsy
05-07-2017, 12:30 PM
Actually, we are in total agreement. I go after the exotics, but not by spreading on the win end. Just my opinion, but if one feels the need to use 5 horses in the win slot, then they don't have an opinion on the race. I know plenty of "spreaders", and most cash a lot of tax tickets. They also burn through a lot of money. I have not made a win bet in the KD in a long time. This race is not the time to take 10 to one on the win end. I can do that on any given day. I'm looking out fill out a ticket. In a 20 horse field, with chaos of some sort usually a given, it's hard enough to construct a ticket with any confidence with one horse on top, let alone multiple horses. But feel free to do it your way.

Right on! I always stick to my guns, the chatter that goes on the two weeks before is a joke. People don't understand athletes, they are all the same, some can practice and play well, some are the opposite. I've seen some that can hit like Babe Ruth at batting practice, during a game they can't hit a lick. Then there are some with talent that goof off during practice but in the game they are sluggers. The point being predicting outcomes should be based on past performances in a real game situation. These horses are all good just to be here. Of course most are going to look good in the morning. My question is, "how do you run in a real race?"

I used the :5: and the :10: in everything. I missed that huge exacta but the horizontal bets came my way. We do agree, I used two in my doubles and pic 3's...........score, cause I shut out the hype and stick to the form.....(guns). People over analyze this race and many others (races) to death. Especially the works, its the only race people even talk about works endlessly......why? Hype, hype, hype. You won't hear this much about works until next April.......guaranteed.