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View Full Version : Belmont: 4/29. Whom I Don't Like.


Teach
04-29-2017, 11:25 AM
Whom I Don’t Like. Whom I Like. That Leaves Us With…
These Picks are Particularly Geared to Exotic Wagerers, e.g., Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.

Race One:
Therefore, I Like… 6, 5, 4

Race Two:
I Don’t Like: :6: RIVER KNIGHT. Overmatched. :3: CHOSEN ONE ELIJAH. Only one lifetime turf try (didn’t hit board). Marginal turf pedigree. :1: ANIMAL POSSE has been on the shelf for over ten months. Morning works have been mediocre. Find this gelding hard to recommend.
Therefore, I Like… 8, 5, 2, 4, 7

Race Three:
I Don’t Like: :3: GANADOR. Looks overmatched in this crowd. :4: NON STOP. Another horse who appears overmatched. :7: PUPPY MATTERS. Over two-month layoff. Beaten by weaker. Poor speed figures. Acceptable morning works (yet nothing to write home about).
Therefore, I Like… 6, 5, 2, 1

Race Four:
I Don’t Like: :8: HIGH RIDER. Tony Dutrow does poorly with first-time starters. :7: FLYOFF. Inauspicious turf debut. Find hard to recommend. Morning works are lackluster. 4 SHIDOSHI. First-time starter with marginal turf pedigree. :2: TOWNIE. Another first-time starter. Trainer Tom Bush has not had much success with either first-timers or turf debuts. :1: POSITIVE WAVES. A first-time starter with limited turf pedigree. As cited, Tony Dutrow does not do well with first-time starters.
Therefore, I Like… 9, 6, 3, 5

Race Five:
I Don’t Like: :3: NIGEL’S DESTINY has failed to win in a month of Sundays. I see nothing that convinces me that he’s a contender in this race.
Therefore, I Like… 6, 2, 5, 7, 4.

Race Six:
I Don’t Like: :3: BOWTIE AFFAIR. Appears overmatched in this group. :5: SPIN CYCLE. Lengthy layoff. Poor trainer turf record. :2: KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER is another horse who appears to be overmatched in this company.
Therefore, I Like… 8, 1, 6, 7, 4

Race Seven:
I Don’t Like: :8: COZY SPRING. This first-time starter shows nothing in her morning works that convinces me she’s a contender here. Possibly better suited for the turf. :4: SATURDAYNIGHTFLING has shown nothing on her morning work-tab that convinces me that she can win at first asking. :3: FIRST APPEAL did finish second against weaker in her last. Yet, the step back up to MSW company may a bit much. Trainer Dave Cannizzo hasn’t show much when entering in either first off a claim or MSW company. :1: BARBIE ON A BUDGET was third in her last in this company; yet, she never threatened. I just don’t see the rail as the place to be in this large-field race. :2: SUNSET RIDGE. Although I’m impressed by this filly’s most recent morning work. I feel this 3 year-old will need one under her belt for her to be a contender. I believe first-asking is a reach. :11: HOLY GOLD was ambitiously entered in the Lynwood state-bred stakes but faded to finish a city-block behind the winner. I just don’t see this filly doing 6 and ½ panels.

Therefore, I like… 6, 9, 5, 7, 10

Race Eight:
I Don’t Like: :7: GREAT WIDE OPEN has been on the shelf for several months. I believe this gelding needs a race. Trainer, Conor Murphy, does not do well with shippers or horses that have been on a vacation. :4: NEVER GONE SOUTH has never raced on the lawn. This colt’s turf pedigree is marginal. Do not consider him a contender. :9: HAMMER’S VISION may be vulnerable. Trainer Brian Lynch does not do particularly well when going from dirt to turf.

Therefore, I Like… 8, 5, 3, 1

Race Nine:
I Don’t Like: :13: MARBLE FALLS has never raced on turf. :10: MONSTER MASH seems better suited for main than the lawn. :9: METAURUS is another horse who’s had more success on main. :7: CARNARSIE KID is stepping up off a layoff. :5: LYRICAL MIRACLE has had only one third-place finish in seven tries on the grass. :3: BAJAN SUMMER. Gary Sciacca does not do well with horses going turf to dirt and with turf starts, in general. :1: CHAMOIS looks like more of a router than a sprint specialist.
Therefore, I Like… 12, 11, 2, 6

NorCalGreg
04-29-2017, 09:24 PM
If you "trimmed some fat" there, a little bit more...you had some nice exotic wagers--good job Teach :ThmbUp: