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jefftune
04-27-2017, 03:01 PM
Good article about the Derby success of lightly-raced horses in the last decade.

http://racingdudes.com/kentucky-derby-myth-buster/

burnsy
04-29-2017, 10:14 AM
This is what I was saying in the other thread. The training leading up to these big races is less races. Its nothing for these good horses to get two or three races and show up in a grade 1 and then run away with it.

Blenheim
05-06-2017, 10:45 PM
The article by Michael Spector is worth another read.

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It is possible that prominent juveniles of today are no longer as well suited to distance racing as they once were and tend to be more precocious and speed oriented than in the past. Speed bred to speed may be adequate for success in juvenile races as presently configured, but it fails when challenged by classic distances. There certainly can be no argument that many prominent North American stallions are speed sires catering to an early sales market. High-class speed from a sire is still high class, but perhaps not over a classic distance, and especially when coupled with speed from the mare. It is also possible that increased fragility in the Thoroughbred diminishes the probability of early developing types surviving the rigors of a two-year-old campaign and a long three-year-old pre-classic campaign. This could account for their displacement by later-developing runners that have been subject to less stress. (Roman, 2016)