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View Full Version : Bel Fri Race R8 - 100k Affirmed Success Stks


PhantomOnTour
04-27-2017, 01:08 PM
A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

:7:Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

:11:Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
:1: - underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
:4: - loves Bel, can run late for a piece
:13: - classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX::7::11:w:1::4::7::11::13:
WIN: :7::11: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?

oughtoh
04-27-2017, 06:23 PM
I also like the #11, but do not think the odds are going to be good enough to bet on.

johnhannibalsmith
04-27-2017, 07:23 PM
There's about a dozen ways to go here, but I'm most interested in :4: Ostrolenka. I think this is what they were thinking when they put down $62,500 and I think that they claimed a pretty nice horse that will run huge if everything goes his way. And this looks like a race that - barring it falling apart with scratches - should play to his strengths and give him a good chance at having it his way. I'm a little afraid that he turns into a bit of a wiseguy play or something and don't really trust him to be at 5-1 with his great back form at Belmont prior to the two most recent show, but he realistically should be every bit the 6-1 morning line. And I think he's tough to pass by, even if to dabble in key horse exotics, if he's just a contender among several on the tote when it closes.

HalvOnHorseracing
04-28-2017, 12:47 AM
There is plenty of speed in the race, which should ensure an honest pace. I started with 8 of the 13 horses being considered.

:1: Eye Luv Lulu interests me some. The up side - he's had some success at BEL. The down side - he looks like a horse that loves a wet track but is so-so on a dry track.

:2: Marriedtothemusic looks like one of the speed horses, but I don't think he's quite as talented as some of the other front runners.

:3: Rectify looks like the speed of the speed, but he doesn't show a lot of affinity for BEL. I can see him in a back hole

:4: Ostrolenka might be the most frustrating horse for me. However, he loves Belmont, and the trainer change to DJ can't hurt. He's got a couple of down sides. He doesn't seem to care much for winning at the 6F distance, and in 11 starts this year and last, he only has one win. But, I think he'll be one of the value horses. A little ambiguous, but bettable.

:7: Celtic Chaos is one of those plodding sprinters, but he is experienced at the distance. If the race breaks down, he looks like the beneficiary.

:10: West Hills Giant doesn't look like quite the equal in price level, but he has a tendency to finish in the money a lot, and he's been in the money at this level. I'd consider him in the verticals.

:11: Candid Desire was in great shape on the inner, and was pretty effective in state-bred stakes. He's another value prospect.

:13: I'd like Weekend Hideaway a lot more from a better post, but at BEL the outside isn't as huge a disadvantage. He's got plenty of tactical speed and has an affinity for BEL and the distance. The tepid choice.

So the predicted handicapping order:

:13:
:7:
:4:
:11:
:1:
:3:
:7:
:10:

EasyGoer89
04-28-2017, 04:06 AM
The inside 3 horses are 'commons' (1 and 2 common owned) and 2 and 3 ('common ridden')so not likely to be any kind of duel.

I like what halv mentioned on the 3, no affinity for Bel, I'm not going to get sucked into inner specialists at short prices.

Murph
04-28-2017, 09:02 AM
The inside 3 horses are 'commons' (1 and 2 common owned) and 2 and 3 ('common ridden')so not likely to be any kind of duel.

I like what halv mentioned on the 3, no affinity for Bel, I'm not going to get sucked into inner specialists at short prices.What the heck, I will. Sticking to basics I'll toss the 13. Prices may allow a dutch but listed in order of my preference.

:1: Eye Luv Lulu (NY) 6/G L P Lopez 118 R R Rodriguez 5/1
:3: Rectify (NY) 5/H L J L Ortiz 118 C Baker 6/1
:2: Marriedtothemusic (NY) 7/G L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 R R Rodriguez 6/1

Maybe saving a bit of ground is as important at Belmont as it is on the inner.

:9: Sudden Surprise (NY) 4/G L J Castellano 124 T A Pletcher 12/1

A price backup consideration. SS could go and stay as easily as I expect Marriedtothemusic to do. T Pletcher sending a late developer to improve here might be worth a look.

Belmont is back, GL today.

PhantomOnTour
04-28-2017, 12:15 PM
I also like the #11, but do not think the odds are going to be good enough to bet on.

I agree...more likely in the 9-2 range or even lower

*sad note about Affirmed Success, the race's namesake...went to the Kentucky Horse Park in 2006 and saw him...not in the Hall of Champions (i guess he was never a champion), but in the area where they displayed all different horse breeds. His stall was tiny and it hurt to see him there looking so sad.

jk3521
04-28-2017, 12:24 PM
Picking the winner of this race is harder than picking the Derby winner, if all go. I'm guessing that Weekend Hideaway will find a way.

Robert Fischer
04-28-2017, 06:13 PM
race is too tough for me (made a fun bet in the NYRA thread)

2 is on fire on the board, and i like the thinking behind the 2. :ThmbUp:

11 is on fire on the board and I don't like the thinking behind this one. Matter of fact.... the 4-ostrastinka surprised me last time with a visually improved effort and competes for similar board spots as the 11(unless 11 is wayyyy improved)

Murph
04-28-2017, 06:24 PM
What the heck, I will. Sticking to basics I'll toss the 13. Prices may allow a dutch but listed in order of my preference.

:1: Eye Luv Lulu (NY) 6/G L P Lopez 118 R R Rodriguez 5/1
:3: Rectify (NY) 5/H L J L Ortiz 118 C Baker 6/1
:2: Marriedtothemusic (NY) 7/G L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 R R Rodriguez 6/1

Maybe saving a bit of ground is as important at Belmont as it is on the inner.

:9: Sudden Surprise (NY) 4/G L J Castellano 124 T A Pletcher 12/1

A price backup consideration. SS could go and stay as easily as I expect Marriedtothemusic to do. T Pletcher sending a late developer to improve here might be worth a look.

Belmont is back, GL today.
Missed here by a head! Very frustrating because I feel like I had this one capped properly. Maybe not.

shouldacoulda
04-28-2017, 06:25 PM
Thanks @phantomontour What a race call. I'm sitting here in a work truck bored to death, so I figured I would play your picks. Through my own stupidity or just plain dumb luck I got the full ride on that exacta. Went a dollar front and back lol. Thanks for sharing!

Exotic1
04-28-2017, 06:30 PM
A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

:7:Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

:11:Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
:1: - underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
:4: - loves Bel, can run late for a piece
:13: - classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX::7::11:w:1::4::7::11::13:
WIN: :7::11: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?


Very good call Phantom !!!

PaceAdvantage
04-28-2017, 07:29 PM
A full and competitive field of NY breds make this one of the best betting races on the card.
13 scheduled to run...like two runners from off the pace as I think this race may cave in a bit

:7:Celtic Chaos - an "always there" type of runner who gets a good set up today over a surface he likes. May need a little longer than 6f to get there but he can easily get a piece, nice ML of 10-1

:11:Candid Desire - recently defeated the above horse in the Hollie Hughes, gave him 4lbs last time and will give 6lbs today. Another one who rarely runs a bad one (save for sloppy track and turf). Rolling late last out and working nicely at Bel, can stay midpack and make his move at a nice ML of 8-1

Using the above on top in exactas with:
:1: - underlaid at 5-1 but can get a dream trip and share
:4: - loves Bel, can run late for a piece
:13: - classy old dude set pace in track record performance for the winner last out at GP; back to NY breds at a track he loves. Win threat for sure but I'll try to beat him from way out there at expected underlaid odds.

EX::7::11:w:1::4::7::11::13:
WIN: :7::11: (at 7-1 or better on both)

Excellent race, who ya got?Very nice! :ThmbUp:

PhantomOnTour
04-29-2017, 01:00 AM
Alright! Just did get my win price requirement at 7-1...last to first move, barely up at the wire, whew :eek:
Thanks for the kudos y'all

"I love it when a plan comes together"
-George Peppard of The A Team