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arw629
04-24-2017, 04:24 PM
Albarado is out with an injury so the question is who is going to ride J Boys Echo? I personally would love to see Calvin Borel get a shot on this one and why not? J Boys Echo would instantly become the wise guy horse this year.

Racetrack Playa
04-24-2017, 04:55 PM
If the track goes sloppy, I like JBE alot more , CB can get it Won for sure:ThmbUp:

Run Nicholas Run
04-24-2017, 05:19 PM
i like the robbie albarado off system,
could jersey joe bravo or luis saez get the mount
or is it CB ?

either way it would be poetic justice to
the woman beating drunk that is RA for him
to lose another derby winning mount:D

reckless
04-24-2017, 05:49 PM
I had TVG on this afternoon and I thought I heard Rich Perloff say that Johnny Velasquez was named to ride J. Boys Echo.

I could be mistaken because I usually don't listen that intently when the TVG hosts talk between races.

arw629
04-24-2017, 06:03 PM
i like the robbie albarado off system,
could jersey joe bravo or luis saez get the mount
or is it CB ?

either way it would be poetic justice to
the woman beating drunk that is RA for him
to lose another derby winning mount:D

I haven't heard anything about CB I was just throwing that out there as a possibility!

Bennie
04-24-2017, 06:46 PM
i thought Johnny V. is riding Always Dreaming.

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 07:55 PM
Put a line thru the Gotham which was the best setup for any horse this prep season and what do you got with J Boys Echo?

not much.

MNslappy
04-24-2017, 09:50 PM
Put a line thru the Gotham which was the best setup for any horse this prep season and what do you got with J Boys Echo?

not much.

I tend to agree with this.

Robert Fischer
04-24-2017, 10:46 PM
Put a line thru the Gotham which was the best setup for any horse this prep season and what do you got with J Boys Echo?

not much.

Lifetime PPs
̶B̶l̶u̶e̶g̶r̶a̶s̶s̶ (worst setup for any horse this prep season)
Withers
̶G̶o̶t̶h̶a̶m̶ (best setup for any horse this prep season)
̶D̶e̶d̶J̶k̶p̶t̶ (insane trip)
̶M̶d̶n̶ (Mdn)
̶M̶d̶n̶ (Mdn)

We're left with the Withers and using common sense.

Withers = overall performance was extremely close to 1/2shot El Areeb

Common Sense = lacks superstar talent, consistently shows a response late, needs a good setup to run a race that looks great on paper.

reckless
04-24-2017, 10:52 PM
i thought Johnny V. is riding Always Dreaming.

You're probably right on that Bennie. Like I said I no longer sit in front of the televison and watch TVG all day, especially when it's a quiet day like today and the host has plenty of time to babble on. I must have heard wrong, plain and simple.

nancy4487
04-24-2017, 11:31 PM
J Boy looked choppy working out yesterday and switched his leads back and forth. Wasn't thinking of using him, anyway

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 03:34 AM
he definitely had an ideal trip and situation in the gotham. but he should have run well there, regardless of it.

that doesn't mean he's a playa in the KD though, and he also has the ny stigmata hanging over him as well. i prolly won't be using him as 3rd place looks like his ceiling

letswastemoney
04-25-2017, 11:29 AM
Maybe he could be a good backwheel candidate for his supporters. I can't imagine him winning.

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 07:51 PM
Maybe he could be a good backwheel candidate for his supporters. I can't imagine him winning.

wut?

don't take this the wrong way. but my jaw drops when i hear stuff like this. i wasn't going to say anything but after seeing your "strat line" for the KD, and you giving more innuendos again in this thread, i would love to hear your deductions going on in your head to get there on why you should do it.

your basic premise was "you don't know who's going to win so i'll wheel an okay closer for 3rd"

really?......imo if you don't know who's going to win you shouldn't be wheeling anybody. why would you?

the only reason you should be wheeling is if you think your horse is good enough for 2nd or is a key for 2nd and you can hit your triple if he finishes 3rd..but in this scenario you have to have a winner.

it should be an obv given playing exactas if you wheel you have to give consideration that he can win the race as well. unless he's an outsider up against a big favorite. in which you would only use for 2nd.

f2tornado
04-25-2017, 08:46 PM
Haskin is kind of high on this one and I always respect his opinions at this time of year but I just don't see it. He tore up the inner Aqueduct then absolutely tanked the Blue Grass. I know that can be a quirky place but if I need binoculars at the wire of a 9F prep to find the horse then I have a hard time playing at a longer distance with larger field. Add in a new rider and I have to toss this one from the win pool. I respect the Bold Ruler line and decent number of dosage points but this one has the feel of a 12th place Derby finisher. Maybe I throw Haskin a bone and stick on bottom of a tri.

letswastemoney
04-25-2017, 08:57 PM
wut?

don't take this the wrong way. but my jaw drops when i hear stuff like this. i wasn't going to say anything but after seeing your "strat line" for the KD, and you giving more innuendos again in this thread, i would love to hear your deductions going on in your head to get there on why you should do it.

your basic premise was "you don't know who's going to win so i'll wheel an okay closer for 3rd"

really?......imo if you don't know who's going to win you shouldn't be wheeling anybody. why would you?

the only reason you should be wheeling is if you think your horse is good enough for 2nd or is a key for 2nd and you can hit your triple if he finishes 3rd..but in this scenario you have to have a winner.

it should be an obv given playing exactas if you wheel you have to give consideration that he can win the race as well. unless he's an outsider up against a big favorite. in which you would only use for 2nd.All gambling is very hard, but I'm pretty confident backwheeling a horse in the 3rd spot is a sound strategy. Some horses are not good enough to win, but they're going to close late and get a piece.

I backwheeled Lookin at Lee in the Arkansas Derby and won $193 off a trifecta. I've seen other gamblers use the strategy so it's nothing new.

To be safe, I did backwheel him in the 2nd slot too.

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 09:16 PM
All gambling is very hard, but I'm pretty confident backwheeling a horse in the 3rd spot is a sound strategy. Some horses are not good enough to win, but they're going to close late and get a piece.

confident sound strategy is something i wouldn't call it. and without going into further detail why at the risk of you feel attacked because of it, i wish you good luck.

letswastemoney
04-25-2017, 09:29 PM
confident sound strategy is something i wouldn't call it. and without going into further detail why at the risk of you feel attacked because of it, i wish you good luck.I didn't feel attacked. I just wanted to explain it lol. I have seen more successful gamblers use it, so yes it is sound. Otherwise I wouldn't have copied the structure.

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 10:19 PM
I didn't feel attacked. I just wanted to explain it lol. I have seen more successful gamblers use it, so yes it is sound. Otherwise I wouldn't have copied the structure.


ok,..i'll press you on it then.

how can this logic be sound when you're clueless on the 1st and 2nd place finishers trying to hit the triple?

how on earth can you play a horse only to finish 3rd and not thinking he can finish higher? it's one thing to say "i think he can get 3rd" it's another thing to bet on it in a part wheel situation and say it's a a good idea.

you're obv part wheeling triples and keying for 3rd. while i would be less critical in <12 horse fields i would still question this way of thinking and betting. as for applying this to a 20 horses field. it almost defies common sense. unless you have deep pockets you're not going all/all/ hence-j boys-lee..so you're going to be leaving horses out.

if by some chance you hit your "okay closer" for 3rd you still have luckbox into having the 1st or 2nd place horse, which you said you have no idea as to who they would be.

what i'm saying it's not sound to handicap for third and third only. while it's hard enough to pick winners quite a few times the 3rd place finisher finishes there because of other horses trying to win or factors you can't handicap or forecast. in essence, sometimes picking the 3rd place horse is even more harder than the winner because of it. there are much more variables and chance involved.

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2017, 10:27 PM
i think sometimes in a race like this its not a bad idea to say a certain type of horse will finish somewhere. Like for me I was thinking of doing something like that with a tri with gunnevera, hence, mccraken on teh back end of it figuring one of those closers will finish 3rd. of course i will have other tickets with those horses finishing better

Robert Fischer
04-25-2017, 10:42 PM
All gambling is very hard, but I'm pretty confident backwheeling a horse in the 3rd spot is a sound strategy. Some horses are not good enough to win, but they're going to close late and get a piece.

I backwheeled Lookin at Lee in the Arkansas Derby and won $193 off a trifecta. I've seen other gamblers use the strategy so it's nothing new.

To be safe, I did backwheel him in the 2nd slot too.
:ThmbUp:

I can think of two reasons why a backwheel could be good strategy.

1. When a horse's odds of running exactly 1st, otherwise known as his 'Win Odds' (both tote, and actual) are significantly higher than his odds of running exactly 3rd, the public often 'anchors' their wagering to the Win Odds, and this win odds anchoring bias occasionally produces an overlay. This is generally a longshot closer, such as Lookin at Lee in the Arkansas Derby.

2. Because the public structures wagers in a 'pyramid' fashion (eg AB/ABC/ABCD), and you happen to feel that this race's wager structure is not pyramid in shape. While this also effects #1, it can occur in other scenarios, such as a quality favorite who happens to be running against a severe track bias vs. several bias-aided contenders (eg BCD/BCD/A).

Neither of these are easy, and neither reason is cause for using this strategy in every race, but once in a while, a race will occur that perfectly matches this model.

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 11:58 PM
:ThmbUp:


Neither of these are easy, and neither reason is cause for using this strategy in every race, but once in a while, a race will occur that perfectly matches this model.


nice disclaimer. plz let me know when a match occurs so i can rip it to shreds

dballard125
04-26-2017, 01:41 AM
:ThmbUp:

I can think of two reasons why a backwheel could be good strategy.

1. When a horse's odds of running exactly 1st, otherwise known as his 'Win Odds' (both tote, and actual) are significantly higher than his odds of running exactly 3rd, the public often 'anchors' their wagering to the Win Odds, and this win odds anchoring bias occasionally produces an overlay. This is generally a longshot closer, such as Lookin at Lee in the Arkansas Derby.

2. Because the public structures wagers in a 'pyramid' fashion (eg AB/ABC/ABCD), and you happen to feel that this race's wager structure is not pyramid in shape. While this also effects #1, it can occur in other scenarios, such as a quality favorite who happens to be running against a severe track bias vs. several bias-aided contenders (eg BCD/BCD/A).

Neither of these are easy, and neither reason is cause for using this strategy in every race, but once in a while, a race will occur that perfectly matches this model.

Great post sir.

f2tornado
04-26-2017, 09:48 PM
Saez gets the mount.

Dream_Police
04-27-2017, 10:59 AM
Everyday is adventure with JBE as the last 2 times I have caught him out here at CD he wants to gawk and look around and seems really uninterested in working and when he finally decides to go his works are ,shall we say, uninspiring. I have heard that is the way he has always been, slow works but comes to run on race day, I might use him underneath on exotics but no way on top.