Longshots for Monday, Funday 4/24

[Ray2000]

That Good day / Bad day has extended to Good month / Bad month

April has been Über-Bad for me.

Harrington R9....#7 Better To Believe-7/1...........Davis, Allan

Western Fair R3..#4 Goldstar Badlands-7/1.......Young, Scott R
Western Fair R8..#4 Demachracy-5/1................Mcclure, Bob
Western Fair R9..#2 Dragon Wave-7/2..............Steward, Nicholas
Western Fair R10.#4 Burst Hanover-8/1.............Young, Scott R

Mohawk R2........#8 Southwind Monty-9/1..........Jamieson, Jody C
Mohawk R3........#5 Cash For Gold-7/1..............Drury, Jonathan L
Mohawk R4........#8 Southwind Masimo-10/1.....Macdonald, James A
Mohawk R5........#6 Every Girls Desire-8/1.........Kelly, Colin
Mohawk R10.......#3 Ocaptain Mycaptain-12/1...Drury, Jonathan L

Monticello R4....#2 Crazy Ponda-5/1..................Merton, Michael

Miami Valley R2..#6 Newspeak-6/1....................Smith, Jeremy
Miami Valley R7..#2 Sallee Ride-6/1..................Oosting, Michael
Miami Valley R9..#3 Art Degree-5/1...................Kauffman, Kayne

Northfield R15...#6 Pass The Deuce-5/1............Miller, Robin

Pocono R1........#6 Melanies Sharkette-12/1......Kakaley, Matt
Pocono R4........#4 Rockin Kasbah-9/2..............Miller, David
Pocono R12.......#9 Candy Styx N-6/1................Napolitano, Geo
Pocono R13.......#6 Meetmeinthemiddle-9/2......Kakaley, Matt

Yonkers R2.......#7 Northern Matador-6/1..........Bartlett, Jason
Yonkers R10......#5 Century Churchill-12/1........Bongiorno, Joe

GLA

[tyler522]

Ray, u had posted stats on Yonkers, YR EARNINGS WIN% & ROI & TOP UDR WIN % &ROI, would it be possible to run those stats just using posts 1-5, to see how they r effected ? Thanks in advance.

[Ray2000]

Ray, u had posted stats on Yonkers, YR EARNINGS WIN% & ROI & TOP UDR WIN % &ROI, would it be possible to run those stats just using posts 1-5, to see how they r effected ? Thanks in advance.

When I put together this data set, I looked at a year of races for which starter had best speed (driver, earnings, class etc.)and whether or not the horse with that factor won. I didn't include post positions because I already had info on Win Percents and ROIs for each post. I would have to re-run the entire Yonkers year, using only the inside posts to get your info. I'll do it if I have the time and if I can find the file. A recent hard drive crash has me searching through a bunch of back ups.

[tyler522]

Thanks Ray , would appreciate it, but if too much trouble, no worries.

[Ray2000]

Miami is killing me!

Track Race Finish Return (W/P/S)
HAR 9
LON 3
LON 8 Win $15.60
LON 9 Scratch
LON 10 Win $19.40
MOH 2 Win $20.50
MOH 3 Win $15.70
MOH 4 Place $6.50
MOH 5
MOH 10
MR 4 Place $6.80
MVR 2
MVR 7
MVR 9
NFLD 15
PCD 1 Place $7.00
PCD 4
PCD 12
PCD 13
YR 2 Place $6.80
YR 10 Show $3.60

Bet $120.00 Return $101.90

[Ray2000]

Thanks Ray , would appreciate it, but if too much trouble, no worries.

This is Yonkers, 2016 ignoring all post positions > 5
The only valid info is the relative standings of the 12 factors.
Some of these races had no Winner when just considering posts 1-5
Also there was a lot more factor "ties" with fewer starters, Tie breaker went to the inside horse.

Frankly, I find it confusing that the Win% and ROI are so high,
The outside posts must drag the numbers down.



Races
2655
Category Win% ROI
Yr Earnings$ 25.5% 0.87
Top UDR Driver 24.6% 0.86
My Speed 26.1% 0.83
Top W% Trainer 23.5% 0.81
TM Speed 29.2% 0.80
Fastest 4QT 21.0% 0.79
Early Speed 20.9% 0.77
Fastest FT 21.8% 0.77
TM Class 21.6% 0.76
2Yr Win% 21.3% 0.74

From previous post for comparison, all post positions.
Races
2567
Category Win% ROI
Top UDR Driver 23.5% 0.86
Early Speed 18.6% 0.82
Yr Earnings$ 22.0% 0.80
My Speed 22.4% 0.79
Top W% Trainer 20.5% 0.78
TM Speed 26.5% 0.75
2Yr Win% 18.9% 0.74
TM Class 19.3% 0.70
Fastest FT 17.2% 0.68
Fastest 4QT 16.4% 0.66

[tyler522]

Thanks again, u never disappoint, much appreciated.