View Full Version : Illinois Derby

04-22-2017, 07:45 PM
No points, but looks like a good race anyway.
I thing the pacesetters will all be backing up in the stretch so I;m going with the :6: Mr. Misunderstood.

:2: and :3: should be out in front, with :4: trying but fading early.

Down the stretch, :1:,:6:, and :7: should be coming fast.
:6: looks like the best closer to me.

04-22-2017, 08:13 PM
So far the Sunland Derby has carried form. If that trend continues then the :2: should hammer these. The :7: would have been a Dallas Stewart Derby special had he got up in the Louisiana Derby.

04-22-2017, 08:14 PM
:3: It's Your Nickel - from just off the pace.

04-22-2017, 08:24 PM
Mr. Misunderstood - that is ME handicapping that race!:pout:

04-23-2017, 04:45 AM
Mr. Misunderstood - that is ME handicapping that race!:pout:I may be past posting a bit here but I would like to share the ratings I have going into this race using the Equibase racelens projection.

I chart a vulnerable favorite to begin. Listed with my handicapped 'true' odds% then with LP and then total pace (EP+MP+LP) projected for the race.

:2: Hedge Fund 19.7% true odds, 83.5 LP, 268.5 total pace. He is expected to improve or hold form today.

Then 4 contenders listed by true odds/the suggested strength of the play.

:1: Multiplier 22.0%, 118.5, 299 total pace
:7: Hollywood Handsome 17.4%, 103.5, 278.5
:6: Mr Misunderstood 12.4%, 114.0, 279
:5: St Louie Guy 11.2%, 110.0, 186.5

My play was WIN:1:, EX :1:,:2: box by adjusted true odds. I enjoyed a straight ticket windmill score on this race, adding a single :1:,:2:,:3: trifecta play. It's Your Nickel is the lowest rated in the field and the last projected to outpace your :6: He faced a class test today (as did 5,6,7) that required a significant improvement for a positive result. :3: made a nice move today and outran his odds for an ITM share. It looked to me they wrapped your selection before the half mile after his interesting start today.

I should add that the only way this sets up for me is when Stand and Cheer goes out to set that solid pace. If the pace goes as you predict, my ticket is most likely a risky wash. I was actually basing my risk on the 4 setting pace like he did.

Double check your ratings, was all I was thinking on this one.

04-26-2017, 08:28 PM
Why doesn't this race get Points? But 3 foreign races do.

Earl J

04-26-2017, 08:48 PM
Because CD has no integrity.