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View Full Version : THE '300' CLUB (Bris pace figs E1+E2+LP ≥ 300 in a pre-Derby race)


Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 05:58 PM
Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS,...

Who are this year's 300 members?

http://68.media.tumblr.com/avatar_cf9f0bfb5777_128.png

CLASSIC EMPIRE, Breeders Cup Juvenile: 102E1 115E2 95LP (312) - Most metrics have CE's BCJuv as much his best race on paper. Is it representative of his expected performance in the Derby?
His Arkansas Derby win likely stamps him as the public favorite.

GORMLEY, Sham Stakes: 108E1 112E2 89LP (309) - Dueled the Sham favorite, American Anthem into submission. Has since won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby.
Is this the next Giacomo?

HENCE, Sunland Derby: 106E1 108E2 93LP (307) - A dream pace scenario in SUNDERBY. Nonetheless, stylish and impressive.
Is this Asmussen's next Curlin? Or did he simply get a great trip on a lightning-fast track?

BATTLE OF MIDWAY, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 71LP (307) - Set a grueling pace, in the West's biggest prep. Is he classy enough to bring his game to Kentucky?
Big effort for a horse flying under the radar.

ROYAL MO, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 70LP (306) -Dueled Battle of Midway from post 13, and finished a half length behind. Ground-loss suggests that Royal Mo actually ran about 4 lengths faster.
Class, cruising speed, and stamina suggest potential for a Hard Spun type of horse.

IRISH WAR CRY, Wood Memorial: 119E1 106E2 80LP (305) - Legit effort, out-dueling the strong Battalion Runner from a wide draw. Sports two 100+ 'E1' races and two 100+ 'LP' races.
Like the great Barbaro, started with a stakes win at Laurel park.

MALAGACY, Gulfstream Park OC75@6.5f: 100E1 108E2 92LP (300) - Like Smarty Jones, earned his membership in an extended sprint. While a sprint at Gulfstream does little to induce Derby dreams, Malagacy has since won the Rebel Stakes and run a game effort in the Arkansas Derby.
Cheap speed, or something more?

(Preakness?) CONQUEST MO MONEY, Sunland Derby: 109E1 109E1 85LP (303) - Legit effort. Certainly a rugged horse with early pace stamina. Questions abound.
Is this an explosive curiosity like recent contender Social Inclusion, or will he put it all together and be a complete Grade 1 type?

Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 06:51 PM
Don Alberto Stable & WinStar Farm have partnered to purchase Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Battle of Midway from Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farm, and the 3-year-old son of Smart Strike will continue to be trained by Jerry Hollendorfer as the colt prepares for a start in the May 6th Kentucky Derby (G1). (https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/don-alberto-stable-winstar-farm-purchase-kentucky-derby-contender-battle-midway/)

ldiatone
04-21-2017, 08:08 PM
Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS,...

Who are this year's 300 members?

http://68.media.tumblr.com/avatar_cf9f0bfb5777_128.png

CLASSIC EMPIRE, Breeders Cup Juvenile: 102E1 115E2 95LP (312) - Most metrics have CE's BCJuv as much his best race on paper. Is it representative of his expected performance in the Derby?
His Arkansas Derby win likely stamps him as the public favorite.

GORMLEY, Sham Stakes: 108E1 112E2 89LP (309) - Dueled the Sham favorite, American Anthem into submission. Has since won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby.
Is this the next Giacomo?

HENCE, Sunland Derby: 106E1 108E2 93LP (307) - A dream pace scenario in SUNDERBY. Nonetheless, stylish and impressive.
Is this Asmussen's next Curlin? Or did he simply get a great trip on a lightning-fast track?

BATTLE OF MIDWAY, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 71LP (307) - Set a grueling pace, in the West's biggest prep. Is he classy enough to bring his game to Kentucky?
Big effort for a horse flying under the radar.

ROYAL MO, Santa Anita Derby: 114E1 122E2 70LP (306) -Dueled Battle of Midway from post 13, and finished a half length behind. Ground-loss suggests that Royal Mo actually ran about 4 lengths faster.
Class, cruising speed, and stamina suggest potential for a Hard Spun type of horse.

IRISH WAR CRY, Wood Memorial: 119E1 106E2 80LP (305) - Legit effort, out-dueling the strong Battalion Runner from a wide draw. Sports two 100+ 'E1' races and two 100+ 'LP' races.
Like the great Barbaro, started with a stakes win at Laurel park.

MALAGACY, Gulfstream Park OC75@6.5f: 100E1 108E2 92LP (300) - Like Smarty Jones, earned his membership in an extended sprint. While a sprint at Gulfstream does little to induce Derby dreams, Malagacy has since won the Rebel Stakes and run a game effort in the Arkansas Derby.
Cheap speed, or something more?

(Preakness?) CONQUEST MO MONEY, Sunland Derby: 109E1 109E1 85LP (303) - Legit effort. Certainly a rugged horse with early pace stamina. Questions abound.
Is this an explosive curiosity like recent contender Social Inclusion, or will he put it all together and be a complete Grade 1 type?
:ThmbUp: :coffee:

PowerUpPaynter
04-21-2017, 08:09 PM
as of now with the exception of some light gormley plays on the back end of exotics. im completely tossing these SA derby horses. hope it dont bite me in the A

letswastemoney
04-21-2017, 09:16 PM
My question is whether Classic Empire is going to cycle back to that Breeders' Cup effort.

I guess it doesn't matter for me. I'm going to include him in the first two legs of my backwheel, so I'm set if he fires.

Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 10:44 PM
as of now with the exception of some light gormley plays on the back end of exotics. im completely tossing these SA derby horses. hope it dont bite me in the A

word is now that Malagacy will not go to the Derby.

Conquest Mo Money is out (not nominated).

Royal Mo needs a couple/few defections to get in.



All this news(in theory) helps Battle of Midway. I haven't yet bought into the idea that he's even a legitimate contender in the Derby, but if he is any good, I'm sure he'd much rather rate near the lead along only Battalion Runner, than have to also deal with those 3 beasts.

ReplayRandall
04-21-2017, 10:49 PM
word is now that Malagacy will not go to the Derby.

Conquest Mo Money is out (not nominated).

Royal Mo needs a couple/few defections to get in.



All this news(in theory) helps Battle of Midway. I haven't yet bought into the idea that he's even a legitimate contender in the Derby, but if he is any good, I'm sure he'd much rather rate near the lead along only Battalion Runner, than have to also deal with those 3 beasts.
Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS
Just curious, what was TC winner American Pharoah's number?

Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 11:02 PM
Exclusive Members include EXAGGERATOR, CALIFORNIA CHROME, BODEMEISTER, BIG BROWN, HARD SPUN, BARBARO, SMARTY JONES, FUNNY CIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, WAR EMBLEM, POINT GIVEN, FUSAICHI PEGASUS
Just curious, what was TC winner American Pharoah's number?

295 in the Delmar Futurity

296 in the Arkansas Derby

(302 in the Preakness)

Like Always Dreaming this year, American Pharoah had easy route races (both dominant and relatively slow early) once he stretched out, and didn't really run a faster paced route until the final derby prep.

2015 PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf

MNslappy
04-21-2017, 11:09 PM
Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

señorclipclop
04-21-2017, 11:24 PM
Three qualifiers last year, 9 in 2015, 4 in 2014.

rsetup
04-21-2017, 11:25 PM
Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

Descriptive 'stats' tend to produce a larger set than predictive ones. The TC focused posters here have left no stone unturned. And we're still a couple weeks away. Keep at it. :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 11:27 PM
Interesting! Do you keep historic records of past Derbies? I wonder how this year's 300 Club compares to previous years. In terms of what percentage of KY Derby starters are usually in the club. Seems like we have more horses fitting more angles this year than most.

Does seem to be more 'members' this year than usual.
Conquest Mo, Malagacy, Royal Mo may not make the gate (similar luck could have effected past years).

300 club is far from a guarantee of success. Some horses like Ocho Ocho Ocho have done it as Juveniles and faded to be 50-1 in the derby... Horses like Itsmyluckyday have ran big early preps and cooled-off by the time the had run their final prep. Also a few cases of off-tracks or extreme tracks where a race may have simply been too high.

I'm not going to be basing my betting on the '300 club', but it was something that I thought was interesting. Surprised that some prices like War Emblem and Funny Cide made the cut. Really just another on the long list of fun Derby Qualifications.

Have at it:ThmbUp:
was lucky enough to find a 'historic' PP file that goes from 2000-2013 (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerbyHistory0013.pdf). <-- opens in a pdf with a working search function(ctrl+F keys) if looking for specific name horses.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
thank you KingChas for 2017 http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf

señorclipclop
04-21-2017, 11:37 PM
Patch can be added to the 2017 list, 301 in his maiden win.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-21-2017, 11:38 PM
If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?

Raider
04-22-2017, 09:03 AM
If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?
No, you must have at least four legs, no three legged horse has ever won the derby:lol::lol:

Mr. Pick 5
04-22-2017, 09:54 AM
No, you must have at least four legs, no three legged horse has ever won the derby:lol::lol:

But a lot of 5 legged ones have :lol:

The Biscuit
04-23-2017, 08:32 AM
Does seem to be more 'members' this year than usual.
Conquest Mo, Malagacy, Royal Mo may not make the gate (similar luck could have effected past years).

300 club is far from a guarantee of success. Some horses like Ocho Ocho Ocho have done it as Juveniles and faded to be 50-1 in the derby... Horses like Itsmyluckyday have ran big early preps and cooled-off by the time the had run their final prep. Also a few cases of off-tracks or extreme tracks where a race may have simply been too high.

I'm not going to be basing my betting on the '300 club', but it was something that I thought was interesting. Surprised that some prices like War Emblem and Funny Cide made the cut. Really just another on the long list of fun Derby Qualifications.

Have at it:ThmbUp:
was lucky enough to find a 'historic' PP file that goes from 2000-2013 (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerbyHistory0013.pdf). <-- opens in a pdf with a working search function(ctrl+F keys) if looking for specific name horses.
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Derby.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf
thank you KingChas for 2017 http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf


Thanks for posting this bro ... I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here ...but I have a question here ...

Do you think if we throw in a qualifier into the 300 club angle that it would ween out some of the losers ? Like for instance ...The last race had to be a big 5 race in which he finished no worse than 3 or 4 lengths behind ...

Thoughts bro ?

The Biscuit
04-23-2017, 10:56 AM
Thanks for posting this bro ... I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as many others here ...but I have a question here ...

Do you think if we throw in a qualifier into the 300 club angle that it would ween out some of the losers ? Like for instance ...The last race had to be a big 5 race in which he finished no worse than 3 or 4 lengths behind ...

Thoughts bro ?


Working on this baby ...looking for an edge ...thoughts ?

Not as knowledgeable as many in here but ..I'm trying here ....lol

2012 and 2013 Derby Horses that hat 300 or above and ITM horses which did not have the 300 angle ...




Year Horse 300 Number less than 2 lengths behind in last big 5 race or won last 2013 Revolutionary ( 3rd Place ) 301 / Last Race G2 ( 1st Place ) Beyer 105
Golden Soul ( 2nd Place ) No 300 / Trainer Stewart improving beyer plus nice prev CD run
Mylute 302/ Last Race G2 (2nd Pl) improv beyer / but did not run well at CD prev race
Goldencents 308/Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) improv beyer/ No works at CD ?
Itsmyluckyday 322/ Last Race G1 ( 2nd Pl ) Decrease Beyer/
Verrazano 303/ Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl Wood Mem ) Pletcher Trained 1-49 Derby / Beyer same
Orb ( 1st Place ) No 300 /Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) / Decrease Beyer/ Jock Change Back to Rosario
Normandy Invasion ( 4th Place ) No 300 / Last Race G1 Wood ( 2nd Pl ) Improv Beyer/ Solid Trainer / Bumped in that race / 114 LP


2012 Take Charge Indy 309 / Last Race G1 (1st Pl ) / Decrease Beyer/Unknown Trainer / No CD Works
Union Rags 301/ Last Race G1 (3rd Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / This horse showed he liked CD ..IMO ..BAD LOSS
Dullahan ( 3rd Place ) 301 on Art Turf / Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) Improv Beyers / Showed a decent G1 close at CD earlier
Bodemeister ( 2nd Place ) 301 / Last Race G1 ( 1st Pl ) / Improv beyers ( won last by 9 lengths ) / Baffert and Jock Smith
Creative Cause 302 / Last Race G1 ( 2nd Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / Unknown Trainer / Decent Previous CD Race
Went The Day Well ( 4th Place ) No 300 / Last Race G3 on Art Turf(1st Pl ) / Improv Beyers / First Time Blinks / Avg Trainer Motion / Not a bad CD WO
Hansen 311 / Last Race G1 on Art Turf ( 2nd Pl ) Decrease Beyer/ So so trainer Maker / Did have a nice CD Race Previously
El Padrino 310/ Last Race G1 9 ( 4th Pl ) / Decrease Beyer / Pletcher 1-49 Derby / Jock Change /
I'll Have Another ( 1st Place ) No 300 / Last race G1 ( 1st Pl ) /Decrease Beyer /Long Shot Trainer O'Neill / Late Pace was 109 last race / Gamely ( Comments )


2011

Robert Fischer
04-23-2017, 11:05 AM
Have fun w/ it. Good luck.


More of a 'notable achievement', than anything else.

The best filter you can add is handicapping knowledge, and common sense.


Some off-hand examples:
Sloppy track, unimpressive raw times(in other words, - a big adjustment by the figs), dream trip, juvy or early Derby trail + nothing close in final prep, extreme early pace but failed to win (e.g. 120 120 60 1 1 1 3rd4), slow final fractions in general,etc...


The reverse (290club?)(symbolic not numeric) is true for horses like American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, Street Sense, Curlin, Orb, etc...
Slow paced races,Stretch Runners,etc...
In that these guys are clearly contenders, in spite of sub 300 resumes.
Keep in mind, that there are two Early figs (2/3 of total). The Derby does favor the forwardly placed, and most have at least strong E2s , so '300' works (most of the time), in spite of favoring E E/P types.

Mulerider
04-23-2017, 12:57 PM
Robert, the Bris Ultimate Summary has a helpful column showing Average EP1, EP2, and LP (along with another column for Best) Easy enough to get a total for each horse. Easy to calculate for the 300 factor from the BEST column. Do you see predictive value in the AVERAGE column?

Robert Fischer
04-23-2017, 02:09 PM
Robert, the Bris Ultimate Summary has a helpful column showing Average EP1, EP2, and LP (along with another column for Best) Easy enough to get a total for each horse. Easy to calculate for the 300 factor from the BEST column. Do you see predictive value in the AVERAGE column?

I think Rsetup said it well when he differentiated between 'descriptive' and 'predictive'.

However, I do find the 'Average' column to be useful.

check these averages out:
e1, e2,lp,SPD
89 97 96 99
87 91 97 96

one of those is Classic Empire, and one of those is Girvin. A favorite, and a 10,15-1 type.

I think the 'Average' column raises two questions in context with members/non-members of '300';
1. a horse's ceiling, peak, or big-game race
2. whether or not the '300' was an abberation

as well, the 'Best' column is interesting to see horses who have adapted to show versatility.

jay68802
04-27-2017, 12:57 PM
If I can bench 300+, do I get mention?

No, but you can play O-line For NU this year.