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PowerUpPaynter
04-20-2017, 08:10 AM
What types of bets do you like to make? Do you play for the WIN bet or do you play for a big payout?

Although ill be holding a bunch of tickets my favorite bet is $1 TRI

AB w/ ABCDEFG w/ ABCDEFG

cost 60 bucks.

Andrick
04-20-2017, 10:42 AM
I'm sure I'll make a win bet or two and then maybe a couple of show bets on some longer priced horses if I like their chances to hit the board. I'll play for the exacta and trifectas as well, but how those are structured each year depends on what opinion I have. As of now with 2+ weeks to go I can see myself playing it similar to you, Paynter, with a 2x6x6.

letswastemoney
04-20-2017, 10:58 AM
It's too hard to pick the winner, especially in a wide open Derby.

Backwheel for me...

ABCD / ABCDEFGH / Y

Something like that.

PowerUpPaynter
04-20-2017, 11:55 AM
It's too hard to pick the winner, especially in a wide open Derby.

Backwheel for me...

ABCD / ABCDEFGH / Y

Something like that.

You think its easier to pick the 3rd place horse?

letswastemoney
04-20-2017, 12:22 PM
You think its easier to pick the 3rd place horse?
Easy might be the wrong word. It's still a stab, but I'd bet the Derby pace will be moderate to fast, and I just need a stamina horse who can move forward towards the end.

Maybe I'll use 2 deep closers in 3rd just to make it more fun.

But I have no strong opinion on who the winner is, so yes, this is the strategy for me. Just put 5 or 6 strong contenders on top and an "okay" closer keyed on the bottom.

PowerUpPaynter
04-20-2017, 12:44 PM
Easy might be the wrong word. It's still a stab, but I'd bet the Derby pace will be moderate to fast, and I just need a stamina horse who can move forward towards the end.

Maybe I'll use 2 deep closers in 3rd just to make it more fun.

But I have no strong opinion on who the winner is, so yes, this is the strategy for me. Just put 5 or 6 strong contenders on top and an "okay" closer keyed on the bottom.

hmm thats an interesting take :ThmbUp:

Sinner369
04-20-2017, 12:55 PM
With the number of starters at 20 horses.........it is very difficult to use the ALL button..........even for the show (third line) positon.

f2tornado
04-20-2017, 03:13 PM
My thoughts considering a $200 bankroll in addition to existing Future pool bets with a goal of winning $1000. This is the first year in a long time I like three horses on top. Unfortunately, two are the 1st and 2nd favorite. I will bet the Oaks/Derby double keying Paradise Woods over several Derby horses in an effort to inflate those win odds. Perhaps $10 each. Maybe also cover something goofy for a few dollars. Perhaps score $200 if it hits.

Another option is the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3. I will probably play a $1 1x4x3 = $12. I figure this might score another $200-$300. I will scout out an upset in the Oaks and add another wager. If that one hits then the payoff would be huge.

I will use my top 3 Derby horses in some sort of trifecta wager. Perhaps a 50 cent 3x5x7 for $30. Since I like Always Dreaming most I will probably make another 50 cent bet with him. Something like a 50 cent 1x4x8 = $12. The payoff will obviously depend on what hits underneath but I'll estimate $300 take here.

I already have Always Dreaming over a chunk of the field in the Future pools but have nothing with Classic Empire. I'm thinking of a $5 box AD/CE/Hence. This might pay $200.

That gets me close to a grand with the potential for plenty more if a bomber hits the tri and/or I luck out with some of my Future pool wagers.

Bennie
04-20-2017, 08:20 PM
My initial bets will be Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3 and Oaks/Derby Double. It owes me nothing as I had both with Orb a couple of years ago and a few smaller in years past. If live to the Derby, I will probably just cover my butt with some exotic bets keying a couple of horses I left out.
I have futures with Irish/field boxed and McCrak/field boxed as well as a few bucks on Irish at like 26-1. I do usually take a wild stab at the tri and super for a few bucks just for kicks, you never know.

PowerUpPaynter
04-20-2017, 10:49 PM
How much of a factor does post position figure into your exotics? 12 of 17 3rd place finishers this century post 8 or inside. While 5 of last 6 4th place finishers post 13 or out.

coincidence?.... probably

Robert Fischer
04-21-2017, 12:28 AM
How much of a factor does post position figure into your exotics? 12 of 17 3rd place finishers this century post 8 or inside. While 5 of last 6 4th place finishers post 13 or out.

coincidence?.... probably

Running style is important when looking at post position.

When you are way wide, you lose ground. If the horse is a star he can do what American Pharoah or Big Brown did, and just relax, spot the field several lengths, and run his race.
A top horse can win or hit the board from way out there.
A less than stellar E or E/P is going to be ridden more urgently and still lose the ground.
If a horse is a deep closer, he's worried a lot more about the pace coming back to him, than the post draw.

The 1 and 2 holes are no picnic either. Have to establish tactical position. Can get very tight.

yankeelpn
04-21-2017, 06:29 AM
What types of bets do you like to make? Do you play for the WIN bet or do you play for a big payout?

Although ill be holding a bunch of tickets my favorite bet is $1 TRI

AB w/ ABCDEFG w/ ABCDEFG

cost 60 bucks.

I cant discount Practical Joke, so $50 pl/$50 show bets on him. The rest Ill figure out later.

PowerUpPaynter
04-21-2017, 08:13 AM
show bets, huh? In a 20 horse field is it worth it to play for 3 or 4 to 1? Unless your taking a horses that like a 40-1 - im with you tho on Practical Joke hes a gutsy horse and I think his heart and the fight he has in him outweighs the distance limitations his pedigree suggest.

PowerUpPaynter
04-21-2017, 04:21 PM
I think this year more than most the post draw and projecting how the race takes shape early is more important in handicapping it with a lot of horses that are of similar styles, talents, and have the same questions.

Heres to hoping Always Dreaming draws the dreaded 1 post, just so i can fully toss him. :D

señorclipclop
04-21-2017, 06:54 PM
$1 Super Hi-5 Classic Empire/ALL/ALL/ALL/ALL ($93,024)

f2tornado
04-21-2017, 08:05 PM
Heres to hoping Always Dreaming draws the dreaded 1 post, just so i can fully toss him. :D

I'm not saying the rail is great but I believe the implied doom on it is unwarranted. Interestingly, post 1 has four times as many winners as post 6. In fact post 1>2>3>4>6 (http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/kentucky-derby-wins-by-post-position-1.13497380)

PowerUpPaynter
04-21-2017, 08:13 PM
I'm not saying the rail is great but I believe the implied doom on it is unwarranted. Interestingly, post 1 has four times as many winners as post 6. In fact post 1>2>3>4>6 (http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/kentucky-derby-wins-by-post-position-1.13497380)

true but how many of those were full fields?

Secondbest
04-21-2017, 08:47 PM
I'm not saying the rail is great but I believe the implied doom on it is unwarranted. Interestingly, post 1 has four times as many winners as post 6. In fact post 1>2>3>4>6 (http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/kentucky-derby-wins-by-post-position-1.13497380)

Last one was in 1986 before that 1963. I don't think War Admiral faced a 20 horse field. None since 20 horse fields became common.For me the 1 is an automatic toss

PowerUpPaynter
04-21-2017, 09:05 PM
Last one was in 1986 before that 1963. I don't think War Admiral faced a 20 horse field. None since 20 horse fields became common.For me the 1 is an automatic toss

toss from the win or toss from all tickets?

Secondbest
04-21-2017, 10:29 PM
toss from the win or toss from all tickets?

Win for sure and probably place. For third or fourth it would depend on the horse. For example if Pharoah was in the one I would not have left him off my triples or supers. This year not so sure.
If they change the gate placement then you would have to take another look.

Fred Mertz
04-21-2017, 11:51 PM
Although ill be holding a bunch of tickets my favorite bet is $1 TRI

AB w/ ABCDEFG w/ ABCDEFG

cost 60 bucks.

How about I turn your bet upside down for the same cost? Higher risk, potentially gigantic return.

ABCDEFG
w/ ABCDEFG
w/AB

sandpit
04-22-2017, 12:02 AM
I use the same strategy every year and it has worked pretty well. I determine the one horse that I think has the best chance to finish in the top three/four and build my tri and super tickets around them.

My favorite bets on Derby weekend are the Oaks/Derby Double, Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3, and the pick 4 that ends with the Derby.

And if I have a rooting interest for a particular Derby horse, I bet a little something on my emotional choice just to remind myself it's not always about the money.

horses4courses
04-22-2017, 12:03 AM
How about I turn your bet upside down for the same cost? Higher risk, potentially gigantic return.

ABCDEFG
w/ ABCDEFG
w/AB

Save everyone the time and shorten the line.
Just hit the "Quik Pik" button. ;)

PowerUpPaynter
04-22-2017, 11:15 AM
I use the same strategy every year and it has worked pretty well. I determine the one horse that I think has the best chance to finish in the top three/four and build my tri and super tickets around them.

My favorite bets on Derby weekend are the Oaks/Derby Double, Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3, and the pick 4 that ends with the Derby.

And if I have a rooting interest for a particular Derby horse, I bet a little something on my emotional choice just to remind myself it's not always about the money.

Im so glad I got my emotional choice on a $25 dollar 26-1 futures bet. Go Irish War Cry!!!n NJ Bred!!!

So with that I can focus on the race like a gambler

señorclipclop
04-23-2017, 03:24 AM
Im so glad I got my emotional choice on a $25 dollar 26-1 futures bet. Go Irish War Cry!!!n NJ Bred!!!

So with that I can focus on the race like a gambler

I regret putting a few Jacksons on Battalion Runner at 26-1. I figured he'd win the Wood and be 6-1. Probably (and should be) 26-1+ on Derby day.

Murph
04-23-2017, 05:50 AM
true but how many of those were full fields?Plenty of them. Let's consider 14 a full field.

How much of a factor does post position figure into your exotics? 12 of 17 3rd place finishers this century post 8 or inside. While 5 of last 6 4th place finishers post 13 or out.

coincidence?.... probablyPost positions above 14 may introduce the aux. gate effect.

Running style is important when looking at post position.

When you are way wide, you lose ground. If the horse is a star he can do what American Pharoah or Big Brown didVery disappointing comment. This is like mentioning Hank Aaron and B Bonds in the same sentence. Mr Dutrow knocked me OUT of the game for several years on this one.

I think this year more than most the post draw and projecting how the race takes shape early is more important in handicapping it with a lot of horses that are of similar styles, talents, and have the same questions.

Heres to hoping Always Dreaming draws the dreaded 1 post, just so i can fully toss him. :DI think many 3YO runners are still searching for a preferred running style. Predicting this too closely has been messy for me in the past.

toss from the win or toss from all tickets?Beware to 'toss' any Ky Derby entry ever (think Timber Country) until you have spent some time reviewing the PP's after the post position draw and Mr Battaglia has set the morning line odds.

My comments are not offered as specific advise for any single person. Just some tips to consider that have helped me to enjoy wagering for this most difficult handicapping puzzle, rather than regretting my plays.

jettroofer
04-23-2017, 06:21 PM
My standard tri wager is based on my top 5 selections:

AB/ABC/CDE up and back

I generally will add 1 more for the Super if it is a large field:

AB/ABC/CDEF/CDEF up and back

If I have a Key that I really like that has some value, I sometimes key it in all three holes with 4-5 others depending on the race, number of runners, betting pool size, etc.

I usually will do this plus a ton of other silly variations on the Derby to try to cash the tri/super.

arw629
04-24-2017, 03:44 PM
Throw out the top 5 betting interests and box the next 15 horses in the exacta ...it costs 210 for a dollar and hope for Giacomo Closing Argument ....you could do worse

ReplayRandall
04-24-2017, 03:55 PM
A $1 exacta wheel front/back in 2009, keying Pioneer of the Nile, cost $36 total(18 other entries) as I want revenge was scratched---$1 exacta paid $1037.40 with Mine that Bird over Pioneer of the Nile.

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 04:59 PM
I like Gunnevera and Hence and im sitting here thinking i am going to do some tri with them on top over them and 5 more horses which would cost $60. (among other bets) But if those are the 2 horses I like combined with the fact that based on futures tickets I hold Id get paid over 500 bucks on either Irish War Cry or Practical Joke winning would I be better to just bet Gunnevera and Hence as like $40 win bets? Figure Gunnevera you'll get 10 to 12-1 and Hence 12 to 18 to 1.



Then doing some smaller exacta, tri's and supers mixing it up


I also like Patch maybe not to win and not sure show bets are really worth it, so id have to figure out how to use him

arw629
04-24-2017, 05:31 PM
I like Gunnevera and Hence and im sitting here thinking i am going to do some tri with them on top over them and 5 more horses which would cost $60. (among other bets) But if those are the 2 horses I like combined with the fact that based on futures tickets I hold Id get paid over 500 bucks on either Irish War Cry or Practical Joke winning would I be better to just bet Gunnevera and Hence as like $40 win bets? Figure Gunnevera you'll get 10 to 12-1 and Hence 12 to 18 to 1.



Then doing some smaller exacta, tri's and supers mixing it up


I also like Patch maybe not to win and not sure show bets are really worth it, so id have to figure out how to use him

How many bets do you have? Honestly though do you really think Hence can win the ky derby? This year is such a mystery why not just bet crazy numbers? That being said if I had to pick one horse if my life depended on it I would pick Gunnevera but I'm really glad my life isn't at stake....I'm betting Longshots to win, Longshot exacta boxes, and Longshots in my multis. ....I want no part of McCracken and Irap is a horse that I want to lose money betting ....something tells me always dreaming is never in the hunt and finishes 16th 2 spots behind McCracken and 6 spots ahead of Tapwrit....Batallion Runner runs in the super and Calvin Borel wins the race....yep that's how it's going to go

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 07:44 PM
How many bets do you have? Honestly though do you really think Hence can win the ky derby? This year is such a mystery why not just bet crazy numbers? That being said if I had to pick one horse if my life depended on it I would pick Gunnevera but I'm really glad my life isn't at stake....I'm betting Longshots to win, Longshot exacta boxes, and Longshots in my multis. ....I want no part of McCracken and Irap is a horse that I want to lose money betting ....something tells me always dreaming is never in the hunt and finishes 16th 2 spots behind McCracken and 6 spots ahead of Tapwrit....Batallion Runner runs in the super and Calvin Borel wins the race....yep that's how it's going to go

actually I have a futures ticket on Battalion runner too but I didnt mention it cause he has no chance in hell. I stood 15 feet from that horse after the wood, i dont think iv ever seen any living thing so exhausted, I actually felt bad for him. he has no chance at the distance and they should of skipped.


and yes I do think Hence can win. there is like 15 horses who CAN win this year.

fifth.day.of.may
04-24-2017, 11:24 PM
i have futures $2w on always dreaming, war cry, thundersnow, battle of midway, girvin, tapwrit and $1 ex box with empire, mccraken, lookin at lee and the field from pool 2

i will probably play $2 wps on classic empire cos his ark derby looked really good and i feel that he will improve and move back to his higher figs.

maybe this derby isn't as close as we think?

idk i probably won't invest that much, I don't like the thought process that one race is much more important than the others.

Secondbest
05-01-2017, 10:25 PM
Last one was in 1986 before that 1963. I don't think War Admiral faced a 20 horse field. None since 20 horse fields became common.For me the 1 is an automatic toss

I must correct myself.War Admiral did face twenty horse field.he broke extremely fast and took the lead from the first step to the last. Having said that I see no War Admiral here .And will toss the one post from the win. If I'm wrong I'm wrong .Won't be the first or last time.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-01-2017, 10:41 PM
$1 Super Hi-5 Classic Empire/ALL/ALL/ALL/ALL ($93,024)

senorclipclop gonna be playing with just a tad bit larger bank roll than I. :eek: :pout:

VigorsTheGrey
05-02-2017, 01:26 AM
Does anybody know what the minimum wager amounts will be for Churchill Downs on Oaks/ Derby Days for trifecta, super, p3-5's...?

Fred Mertz
05-02-2017, 06:16 AM
Does anybody know what the minimum wager amounts will be for Churchill Downs on Oaks/ Derby Days for trifecta, super, p3-5's...?
If you don't bet $2 you're wrong.

Dime bets are for cheapos.

jtschmidt
05-02-2017, 08:49 AM
Does anybody know what the minimum wager amounts will be for Churchill Downs on Oaks/ Derby Days for trifecta, super, p3-5's...?

For Saturday I believe:

WPS $2
Exacta, Super, HI5, Double $1
Trifecta, P3, P4, P5 $0.50

Delta Cone
05-02-2017, 01:15 PM
Does anybody know what the minimum wager amounts will be for Churchill Downs on Oaks/ Derby Days for trifecta, super, p3-5's...?

https://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-wagering/toteboard/post-times

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 08:38 PM
horses that didn't run a prep race in April have finished in top 3 in 9 of the last 10 years. Hence, Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate only 3 this year

Mc990
05-02-2017, 09:00 PM
horses that didn't run a prep race in April have finished in top 3 in 9 of the last 10 years. Hence, Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate only 3 this year

Yes. Spacing is good. 5-6 weeks has proven to be optimal for this race.... Regardless of month...