Tale of the Turns at Churchill Downs

[Cratos]

The major Derby preps are over and the “tale of the turns” for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs can be told.

Churchill Downs Ky Derby Turn Impact by Quarter

• First Quarter
No turn impact; 1,320 feet straight-a-away

• Second Quarter
93.4% impact at 1,206.50 feet in the turn; 113.50 feet straight-a-away

• Third Quarter
6.5% impact at 85.50 feet in the turn; 1234.50 feet straight-a-away

• Fourth Quarter
93.4% impact at 1,206.50 feet in the turn; 113.50 feet straight-a-away

• Fifth and Final Quarter
6.5% impact at 85.50 feet in the turn; 1234.50 feet straight-a-away

Why is the consideration of “turn impact” important? In a word, “acceleration”; this determines not how fast a horse is moving, but how it can move fast and in the turn, the derivative is dD/dF which states the change in distance with respect to the change in force.

When a racehorse goes into the turn it is confronted with a side force and the smaller the turn, the greater the force. Consequently, with the horse running wide in the turn reduces the force, but increases the distance.

Churchill Downs have small turns which will not be favorable to late running horses.

[Augenj]

Is the banking in the turns (if any) taken into consideration?

[1st time lasix]

yes...I agree about closers at CD generally. Love to play logical favorites that need to close "underneath" only. Based on my observations I also think it is a "horse for course" type of track. Of course their higher take-outs for tris, supers, pick 3's, 4' and 5' are not at all very conducive to exotic players either. because I like to play those instead of straight W/P---- I prefer to play Keeneland and Kentucky Downs in that state. That's just me....

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Very interesting information and out-of-the-box thinking, Cratos. Thank you for sharing this.

Are you going post your Derby Prep analysis on the last five major preps that just occurred? I am interested to see what you generate.

[JustRalph]

There's a shitload of turn time info out there. Lots of stuff on this board over the years

[Cratos]

There's a shitload of turn time info out there. Lots of stuff on this board over the years

Please post a reference(s).

My post is not about time , it is about the effect of the turn; time becomes a byproduct of that effect.

[Cratos]

Is the banking in the turns (if any) taken into consideration?
The radius of turn is inversely proportional to the angle of bank. With a higher angle of bank the radius of turn is smaller, and with a lower angle of bank the radius is greater.

Therefore, a horse which ran in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct experienced a lower angle of bank (about 4-1/2%)because the radius of turn at Aqueduct is about 473 feet compared to Churchill Downs turn radius of 412 feet.

It becomes worse for horses coming to the Derby from Gulfstream Park which have a turn radius of 550 feet compared to Churchill Downs to smaller turn radius.

[JustRalph]

Try to google "Turn time handicapping"

You'll get a ton of info

[Cratos]

Try to google "Turn time handicapping"

You'll get a ton of info

Thanks for the advice, but as stated earlier this is not about time; it is about the turn effect on time and that is both a difference and a distinction.

[Cratos]

Very interesting information and out-of-the-box thinking, Cratos. Thank you for sharing this.

Are you going post your Derby Prep analysis on the last five major preps that just occurred? I am interested to see what you generate.

Hopefully

[JustRalph]

Thanks for the advice, but as stated earlier this is not about time; it is about the turn effect on time and that is both a difference and a distinction.

If you say so