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BETA
04-18-2017, 12:01 PM
Apr 18th…. I have a couple of potential plays at PARX I’d like to share…. Before continuing, most plays I post will be “price” oriented using the morning line and my own past experience as a “value” barometer…. Since I’ll tear up more losing tickets than winners, please be mindful of my recommended strike rate if electing to follow along….

First potential play is PARX/Race2…. This is projected to be a “chaos” race for cheap claimers (NW2L) routing 8.3 furlongs…. The #4, Curlin Crush, has an “A” contender grade based on the analytics I use to separate contenders (“A+” = Best)…. This horse is fourth choice on the ML at 5/1…. Fresh off breaking his maiden (MDC$10k), Curlin Crush is facing winners for the first time and appears to properly entered (race conditions) per sharp barn…. Tactical early speed a plus as he will most likely be chasing the PEN shipper (#7) and should get first run verse the others…. 1 for 12 lifetime record and overall chaos nature or race a major concern, so need minimum 9/2 tote odds accordingly…. Other contenders =
#6 Mr. Charles (MLO 3/1) – Grade B
#5 Rocky the Kid (MLO 8/1) – Grade C
#8 Eastern Front (MLO 5/2) – Grade C
#1 Extrovert (MLO 10/1) – Non Contender but interesting than Trevor McCarthy is riding?


Next, PARX/Race5…. Projected to be an “orderly” allowance race (NW1) for sprinters traveling 5.5 furlongs…. The #2, Atlantis Romance, has an “A” contender rating and is fifth choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 4 yr old filly does not look all that competitive on paper; but, I like the race two back showing strong early speed and tiring late…. Last race poor showing a concern but like the 46 day layoff and should fire fresh…. I think this filly has upside and will gamble at 6/1 or higher…. Other contenders =
#7 Polite Pearl (MLO 3/1) – Grade B+
#6 Miss Avalon (MLO 2/1) – Grade C
#1 Simplylucky (MLO 9/2) – Grade C

BOL!

usfgeology
04-18-2017, 01:29 PM
Nice analysis BETA. Tote board didn't meet your req's but hopefully your better judgement didn't cost you in Parx 2.

BETA
04-18-2017, 03:47 PM
I plan on posting selections for the next several days as potential price opportunities present themselves.... I also plan to track results…. Neither of my two plays today met my minimum odds requirement....

Current Record = 0 for 0.

BETA
04-18-2017, 06:15 PM
Thanks, usfgeology…. RE: Better Judgment

I’m an old school, database guy…. I like to use analytics to point me in the right direction (i.e.: “fishing in the right ponds”) and then apply handicapping experience to confirm or reject the “output”.

I tried for years to make the perfect oddsline…. In fact, I made a killer line as every one of my projected 2/1 shots won on average 33% of the time…. The problem was “on average” as most of the winners won as tote underlays and the resulting overlays did not win enough to generate a positive ROI…. There’s just too much race-to-race variance as I’m not good enough to make a viable, automated probability estimate…. Not saying it can’t be done, just admitting I can’t do it!

Instead, I have database (past history) metrics that project three different race types = Dominant; Orderly; and Chaos…. I then use five different multi-factor algorithms to produce five separate models unique to each race type…. There is some minor correlation between models; but, I liken it to using a consensus of five expert handicappers resulting in contender choices based on an A-B-C “strength” approach…. Then, I use a value based algorithm to further separate contenders as “A+” thru “D”.

Sorry for the background details; but I thought it might be helpful to properly address your comment regarding “better judgment”…. All contenders are classified (based on “race type”) into four tote board odds ranges:

L = Low Odds (Dominant race type must be less than 3 to 1; Orderly race type must be less than 3.5 to 1; and Chaos race type must be less than 4 to 1).
S = Sweet Spot Odds (All race types subtracting one from field size…. For example, an eight horse field equals odds of 7 to 1 or less to qualify).
N = Natural Odds (Dominant race type <= Field Size times 1.5; Orderly race type <= Field Size times 1.75; and Chaos race type <= Field Size times 2).
H = High Odds (All odds greater than Natural Odds as defined above).

The “plays” I’m posting for the next several days involve “A+” and “A” qualified contenders only based on a couple of pre-race filters and tote conditions as follows:

“A+” selection must be greater than MLO rank 1 with tote odds falling into the Low or Sweet Spot range based on a minimum odds requirement of 2/1.

“A” selection must be greater than MLO rank 2 with tote odds falling into the Natural Odds range only.

If you deviate from these guidelines, please make sure you’ve properly vetted the race using your normal handicapping routines.

Thanks and sorry for the long post!

BTW, I want to give credit to Dave Schwartz for many of the concepts I’ve outline above…. If you want to become a better handicapper, you should definitely check out the many fine products on his website.

usfgeology
04-18-2017, 11:46 PM
Thanks BETA. I am, in fact, here to learn. I went to Tampa Bay Downs on 1/1/2017 and saw my very first thoroughbred race. I caught the bug instantly and have been trying to absorb as much as possible between online forums, the Davidowitz book, and real and simulated wagering to test my approaches.

While your thorough explanation approaches and exceeds my full comprehension, I appreciate you taking the time to spell it out.

One initial question comes to mind - what are some of the criteria by which you grade the race type (Dominant, Orderly, and Chaotic). To over-simplify your approach, the more chaotic you grade the race - the more favorable odds your "contenders" need to have in order for you to make a play.

I think this is in essence, understanding the quality of the race. How would a new player go about evaluating a given race type? Standard deviation of pace/speed figures or other quantitative evaluation using a racing form or PPS? Or is it more qualitative - a 12 horse, low $ maiden claiming race on the inner turf can be assumed to be chaotic when compared to an 8 horse, high $ allowance race.

Although I suspect I answered my own question in that it's a little bit of both, but all the relevant information can be derived quantitatively.

BETA
04-19-2017, 09:52 AM
How would a new player go about evaluating a given race type?

Your instincts are great! Field size, number of unknowns, and strength of the tote favorite, (etc.) are all components of classifying a "race type".... I'm not sure how to do this manually other than gauging your own "confusion" when identifying and separating race contenders.... As you gain more experience this should become easier....

For me, I churn different factors within a database to automate this output.... But, I still only use it as a starting point as individual race dynamics make it very hard to have a "one size fits all" approach....

At the end of the day, it's all about science verse art.... The primary reason I'm posting plays is I've been taking too many shortcuts using the "science" and not enough handicapping "art".

Sorry, I can't really help you; but, I can give you a look at some of the data I use as a "starting point" to hopefully better illustrate what I’m talking about:

BETA
04-19-2017, 09:59 AM
Here's the attachments:

BETA
04-19-2017, 11:23 AM
Apr 19th….

First potential play is AQU/Race7 (Turf only)…. This is projected to be a “chaos” race for nice allowance fillies and mares (NW1) routing 8.5 furlongs on turf…. The #5, Glory to Kitten, has an “A” contender grade and is fifth choice on the ML at 8/1…. She has been racing against easier at GP and I’m a little skeptical that her front running style will transfer to the AQU grass? However, I really like the race four back at CD where see rated off the pace and made a nice late run for second in a MSW affair…. To me, Junior Alvarado is typically underrated and I expect him to work out a good trip…. Very competitive race and will take a shot at 8/1 or higher…. Other contenders =
#1 Volatility Index (MLO 5/2) – Grade C
#10 War Queen (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Realistic (MLO 5/1) – Grade C-
#7 Battlement (MLO 6/1) – Grade C-

Next, MVR/Race8…. Projected to be a “chaos” MSW race for sprinters traveling 5.5 furlongs…. The #5, Divine Appointment, has an “A+” contender rating and is co third choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 3 yr old filly is making fifth start after finishing a well beaten fourth at 9/5 odds…. Gets a rider switch to leading jockey and will probably take tote action accordingly…. I am hesitant to back this filly despite the strong A+ rating and instead, going to make a small action wager only based on her hitting the board…. I going to use her in the trifecta (and maybe super) with the second time starter, #3, Hot Pink…. I gambling this 2TS will show big improvement for sharp owner/trainer Elliot Sullivan…Proposed ticket as follows: 3-5/3-5/all; 3-5/all/3-5; and all/3-5/3-5. Other contenders =
#10 Dashing Cat (MLO 6/1) – Grade C+
#8 Ginger Fizz (MLO 7/5) – Grade C-
#3 Hot Pink (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-
#2 Ohio Rose (MLO 6/1) – Grade D

BOL!

BETA
04-19-2017, 12:06 PM
After scratches, revise playable odds for AQU Race 7 for #5, Glory to Kitten, from 8/1 to 6/1.

BETA
04-20-2017, 08:06 AM
Apr 20th…. 3 Potential Plays:

First play is HAW/Race1 (4:10pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (NW1) for IL bred allowance fillies and mares routing 8.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #1, Saturday's Song, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 3yr old filly is facing older making 3rd lifetime start and first try around two turns…. Above average pedigree suggests she is more than capable as does her last “even” paced effort sprinting 6f…. Seasoned 4 yr old, Prairie Chick (#5), is main competition but I’m expecting her to be over-bet and hopefully, regress off her best ever last race…. In contrast, I’m expecting Saturday’s Song to move forward and improve for sharp jockey/trainer combo…. Will back at 2/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Prairie Chick (MLO 6/5) – Grade B+


Next, KEE/Race9 (Turf Only @ 4:30pm central)…. Projected to be a “chaos” MSW turf route for 3 yr old fillies traveling 8.5 furlongs…. This race is loaded but I’m interested in #12, How (IRE)… She has an “A+” contender rating and is second choice on the ML at 9/2…. This filly ships from FG and is making third US start after four prior losing efforts abroad…. Finished second in last at “odds-on” off rank, hard-to-handle wide trip…. Prior start was also a near miss off brutal trip…. Like 3rd time Tom Proctor; like 3rd time Lasix; like the 40 day freshening to fix “rank” issues; like recent sharp 5f work @ KEE; and like jockey switch to Geroux…. Don’t like outside post; but, will play at 3/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#9 Kahrumana (MLO 2/1) – Grade A
#7 Pounds to Pennies (MLO 4/1) – Grade D
#11 Suburb (MLO 6/1) – Grade D
#3 Youngest Daughter (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-
#8 Dynamic War (MLO 30/1) – Grade C-

BOL!

BETA
04-20-2017, 09:37 AM
For anyone interested, I've attached a "generic" PDF worksheet sorted alphabetically by track name illustrating corresponding contender grades.... If grade field is "blank" = non-contender.... All grades generated from five separate models as discussed earlier.... "Y" symbol in Bump column denotes "value" upgrade included and reflected in contender grade.

All other columns self-explanatory.

Reminder: Worksheet Data represents/serves as a "starting point" only as each race should be vetted using your own preferred handicapping routines.

BOL!

BETA
04-20-2017, 06:26 PM
Apr 20th Results:
Both plays met minimum odds requirement at post.... 2 losers.

YTD = 0 for 3

BETA
04-21-2017, 09:40 AM
Apr 21st…. 4 Potential Plays:

First play is GP/Race1 (Turf only @ 11:55am central)…. This is projected to be an “orderly” race (Starter/Optional Claiming) for 3 yr old fillies routing 8 furlongs on turf…. The #1, Bahama Kitten, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. She draws a nice post and should get a good trip rating behind the two projected speedsters #3 and #7…. Trainer, Steve Towne, has a small barn (4 horses) and seems to do his best work with 3 yr olds (developing horses) in similar spots…. Lezcano has left town and Panici rides (0 for 5 w/trainer)…. After watching last race replay, there is concern that she is a little “dressed up” from that effort, but will gamble that she can move forward one more time…. Will back at 5/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Ventina (MLO 5/2) – Grade C+
#3 Lover’s Key (MLO 7/2) – Grade D
#7 Princess Victoria (MLO 5/1) – Grade C
#2 Flying Girl (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next, WO/Race7 (3:19pm central)…. Projected to be a “chaos” C25k sprint for fillies and mares traveling 5.5 furlongs on the poly…. #3, Unseen Angels, gets an “A+” contender rating and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 4 yr old filly returns from vacation in FL off two very poor efforts on the dirt at TAM…. She reunites with high percentage trainer, Norman McKnight, and should be ready (41 day layoff) to fire best shot off the class drop to C25k…. Da Silva gets call which most likely will hurt price…. This is a salty group but will play at 5/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 Two Step Flor (MLO 5/2) – Grade C-
#6 Old Valyria (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Geocentric (MLO 6/1) – Grade C+


Next, KEE/Race7 (3:24pm central)…. Projected to be a “orderly” starter allowance route for 3 yr olds going 8.5 furlongs on dirt…. #2, Phat Man, gets an “A” contender rating and is fifth choice on the ML at 6/1…. This colt ships in from FG off a second place turf effort…. Trainer, Joe Sharp, seems to not excel in this spot (0 for 16 dirt routes at Kee); but will forgive small sample and default to glass half full…. He is due. Most of all, I really like the effort 3 back (LeComte-GR3) where Phat Man displayed high cruising early speed before tiring against much better…. This is another salty group but will play at 7/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Gladtobehere (MLO 7/2) – Grade D
#4 Coors Lute (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Equator (MLO 4/1) – Grade C+
#7 Wicked Zar (MLO 5/1) – Grade D
#1 Blue Azul (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next, SA/Race4 (4:29pm central)…. Projected to be a “Chaos” C16k sprint going 6 furlongs on dirt…. #7, Where Y'at Joe Joe, gets an “A+” contender rating and is co-fifth choice on the ML at 6/1…. This 5 yr old gelding makes 2nd start off claim for conditioner, Mark Glatt (15% winners from 27 starters)…. Takes the blinkers off returning from 54 day layoff…nice 5f work on Apr 11th a plus as is slight class drop from C20k…. This is another competitive group but will play at 7/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#3 Bolitar (MLO 7/2) – Grade C-
#2 Louden's Gray (MLO 4/1) – Grade B-
#6 Finallygotabentley (MLO 4/1) – Grade D
#4 Last One Standing (MLO 9/2) – Grade C+


BOL!


For anyone interested, I've attached a "generic" PDF worksheet.

stuball
04-21-2017, 01:13 PM
Thanks I am going to follow along to see how it goes....:ThmbUp:

theBozyn
04-22-2017, 09:57 AM
Hey Beta, that was a tough beat on the Phat Man in race seven at Keeneland. Those are the kind of races that drive people crazy. You're right but not lucky. Anyways that was a good pick.

BETA
04-22-2017, 10:27 AM
Apr 21st Results:
0 for 1 based on minimum odds requirement at/near post (WO/Race7 - #3)
0 for 1 (KEE/Race7 - #2…. Made play as odds briefly drifted up to 6/1 near “OFF”)

YTD: 0 for 5

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 22nd…. 1 Potential Play:

Play is at HAW/Race7 (7:14pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” Stakes Race (IL Bred only) for fillies and mares sprinting 6.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #7, Dandy Gal, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 7/2…. She draws an outside post and her late (closing) running style should be a benefit in this race loaded with early speed…. Last race at OP has the look of a “prep” as she was returning from a lengthy layoff facing much, much better…. Dandy Gal does her best work at HAW as super trainer, Scott Becker, reunites her with patient rider, Carlos Marquez…expect game plan to be similar to race three back where Marquez makes a late run from well off the early pace. The main danger is the Brad Cox horse (#3) who will also likely be rated and make first run and get the jump on Dandy Gal? Even though I’m projecting this race to fall apart late; more often than not, the one-run rally types don’t get to the wire first…. However, I will back Dandy Gal 3/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 My Mertie (MLO 9/5) – Grade C
#3 Game Time Decision (MLO 3/1) – Grade A- (upgraded from C to A based on projected pace scenario)


BOL!

For anyone interested, I've attached "generic" PDF worksheets:
Note: Based loosely on pari-mutuel “pool” size….
CUST(A) = A Tracks; CUST(B) = B Tracks; and CUST(C) = C Tracks

BETA
04-23-2017, 08:06 AM
Apr 22nd Results:
Yikes…. Another Loser!

YTD: 0 for 6

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 23rd…. 2 Potential Plays:

First play is at PARX/Race1 (11:55am central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (C20k NW2L) for males (3&up) sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. The #3, OK Now, has an “A” contender grade and is last choice on the ML at 12/1…. He comes out of a “slow” MDC20k affair; but showed heart by just getting up at wire after slight check at 1/16…. Returns off 22 day layoff and sharp 5f work on Apr 15th…. Horse appears to be overmatched based on unrealistic class jump; but will trust trainer, Keith Nations, for spotting properly as he is 3 for 11 (27%) when 3rd off claim…. Race pace has the look of an early duel meltdown which suits Ok Now’s running style…. This is a bit of a reach but I will gamble at 9/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 Mr. Neetie (MLO 5/2) – Grade B
#4 Time for Quality (MLO 7/2) – Grade C-
#6 Uncle James (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next play is at AQU/Race1 (12:20pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (C10k) for males (4&up) routing 8 furlongs on dirt…. The #1, Motown Sound, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 5/2…. Possesses tactical speed and returns off a winning effort 30 days back…. Horse appears to be properly placed for trainer, Ray Handal, as he is 3 for 9 (33%) when 3rd off claim and overall, puts up good numbers for small nine horse stable…. Most importantly, Motown Sound appears to be lone early speed and should have things his own way on front end…. Strong play at 8/5 or higher….
Other contenders =
#4 One Sided (MLO 9/5) – Grade C+
#3 Chelios (MLO 5/1) – Grade C


BOL!

broker81
04-25-2017, 04:26 AM
I need for parx racing your details please

BETA
04-25-2017, 08:28 AM
Apr 23rd Results:
0 for 2
Post Mortem:
Ok Now (PARX1) was a bad recommendation as early speed duel forecast never materialized…race winner was clearly superior as the “speed of the speed”.

Motown Sound (AQU1) couldn’t relax early as he was repeatedly chocked back during the first ¼ mile…. I don’t think he was good enough to win; but, I wish the jock would have let him run without all the excessive early restraint…. I just hate that type of ride! In contrast, watch the replay and the smooth actions of the race winner…. Lots of “dynamics” to overcome in this game we play….

YTD: 0 for 8

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 25th…. 2 Potential Plays:

First play is at IND/Race8 (4:21pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MSW race (Indiana bred) for fillies & mares (3&up) sprinting 5.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #2, Hoppestry, has an “A+” contender grade and is co third choice on the ML at 6/1…. Will back this first time starter (precocious pedigree) for sharp trainer, Aaron West, at 3/1 or higher….
Other Contenders:
(See PDF race summary)


Next play is at WRD/Race9 (4:38pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” Stakes race (Texas bred) for 3 yr old males routing 8.3 furlongs on dirt…. The #5, Cummit, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 7/2…. This “maiden” is shipping in from OP to face winners and despite his 0 for 4 record, should be able to get the job done for Asmussen…. Will back at 9/5 or higher….
Other Contenders:
(See PDF race summary)

BOL!

For anyone interested, I've attached full card "generic" PDF race summaries....

overthehill
04-25-2017, 11:34 AM
I find your approach very interesting and informative. i am not surprised that you failed to make a profit seeking overlays on horses that you made 2-1 on the ml. My experience over decades indicates that in most cases when obvious horses do not get their play and especially early play, its because they are not as good as they look on paper. The only exceptions to that I find are situations where there is a name horse or name trainer. who ends up attracting a lot more support than they should. I would say you would be lucky to find a situation like that about once very two weeks!

I think that your type of analysis might lead to profits if you looked at the third or fourth best horse on your value line. and play those when they are completely ignored by the betting public.

I printed out your forms and will take them with me when i do my handicapping of the drf.

if you are so inclined i would appreciate how you distinguish between A+ A and B+ value horses.

for example in the third at ind. today .I see the difference in your top 3. I have your 3rd rated horse R Lady Hansen much closer to the other 2 than you do. based on connections, breedling and likelihood of improvement. so at 6-1 probably a play for me.

BETA
04-25-2017, 01:09 PM
Thanks for the feedback…. First, I’m not making an automated value line…. The Morning Line I refer to is published by the track…. The few plays I’m posting are based strictly on the following filters:
An “A+” contender must be > MLO rank 1
An “A” contender must be > MLO rank 2

Then, I use my best judgment to establish a minimum strike rate based on my own handicapping experience taking into consideration pace dynamics, trainer, race replays, (etc.). Please note that I use the “grades” as a starting point only and will not hesitate to revise based on additional handicapping preference/discovery.

Perhaps, the enclosed attachment will give you a better idea? If not, sorry, as that is the extent of the info I will share.

BETA
04-26-2017, 07:10 AM
Apr 25th Results:
0 for 1 on qualified plays

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 26th Plays:

Nothing today….

If anyone is interested in full card summaries, I’ve moved them to the following website to facilitate a more friendly PDF document size…. All tracks are on one document sorted alphabetically by track and the by Morning Line Odds:

https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home


BOL!

BETA
04-27-2017, 07:52 AM
Apr 26th Results:
No Plays

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 27th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at KEE/Race6 (TURF only @ 2:51pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” allowance race (4&up) traveling 9 furlongs on turf…. The #7, Sixty Five (FR), has an “A” contender grade and is fourth choice on the ML at 9/2…. Wide open contentious affair; but, will back this first time gelding for sharp trainer, Brad Cox, at 4/1 or higher….
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

BETA
04-28-2017, 07:43 AM
Apr 27th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 28th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at PRM/Race8 (9:13pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Dominant” stakes race for 3 yr olds sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. The #2, Smokin Now, has an “A” contender grade and is fourth choice on the ML at 5/1…. This sprinter typically breaks well and possesses best early speed on a track that usually favors front runners…. Expecting bounce back winning effort off 42 day freshening for sharp connections…. Like this spot for Smokin Now to wire field at 7/2 or higher…. Last two mediocre efforts at OP should help price.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

Note: If referencing Race Summaries, I’ve added an additional column entitled “KARMA” as a supplement to Model 5…. Please read the corresponding PDF for additional explanation.

BETA
04-29-2017, 09:32 AM
Apr 28th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 29th…. 3 Potential Plays:

This play is at Belterra Park/Race2 (12:50pm central)…. This is projected to be an “Orderly” MDC6k race for 3&up sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. This is truly the bottom of the barrel and an awful, awful race…. But, the #3, Come On J W, has an “A+” contender grade and is co-fourth choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 5 yr old gelding has been racing exclusively on the synthetic at TP where he compiled a 0/6 record…. However, last race he showed surprising early speed and ran second at 25/1…. Connections are poor and doubt this runner will get much action at window…. Flashing early speed last plus switch to dirt may be wake-up call and will trust contender grade…. Field size of eight so will back at natural odds or higher (7/1 plus).
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

This next play is at GG/Race3 (TURF only @ 3:44pm central)…. This is projected to be an “Orderly” MSW (state bred) race for fillies and mares 3&up traveling 8.5 furlongs on turf…. I can’t believe I’m recommending a 0/16 maiden…. But, the #6, Lethal Legacy, has peaked my interest…. She has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 4 yr old filly comes out of a very fast race and returns in six days…. I really like her work tab prior to last race…today she’s taking the blinkers off and if she’s ever going to win, this looks like a good spot…. Top jock, Hernandez, takes off which should help price…. I’m backing this horse at 5/2 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

This final play is at CD/Race11 (Fast track only @ 10:10pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MDC10k race for 3&up fillies and mares sprinting 7 furlongs on dirt…. This is another bottom of the barrel, awful race…. But, the #12, Endless Thyme, has an “A+” contender grade and is co-seventh choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 3 yr old filly has been racing against better at TAM and should carry good conditioning from prior efforts (plus recent sharp work) into this affair…. Blinkers off from one race experiment; still, expecting horse to break well and be forwardly placed as CD is usually kind to early speed when track is labeled “fast”…. 7 furlong distance should help price as this gal has the look of a quitting sprinter (which she most likely is)…. However, will play her at 6/1 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home


BOL!

Bennie
04-29-2017, 10:39 AM
Parson will be glad to see you like Endless Thyme today as I believe this is a horse he has a "piece" of. I also like his last workout and was going to play him across the board at 5-1/6-1 minimum odds at varied units, ie. 1w-2p-4s. Good luck to you and Parson today.

BETA
04-30-2017, 08:13 AM
No official plays at present.... Here's a list of considerations:

PHA3: #3 Discovery Bay
PRM2: #3 Roll Seattle Roll
LS2: #2 Italian Candy
GG3: #1 Krsto Skye
SA3: #7 Best Two Minutes
HST2: #3 Something Better
GP9: #3 Tiger Blood
SA9: #2 Particleacelerator

May be back later with recommendations....

BOL!

BETA
04-30-2017, 01:50 PM
Apr 29th Results:
1 for 2 (2 qualified plays w/ one winner…. RE: CD11: #12 paid $14.20)

YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 30th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at SA/Race9 (TURF only @ 7:13pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MSW race for 3&up routing 8 furlongs on turf…. This is a very contentious race as most are lightly raced with lots of upside…. The #2, Particleacelerator, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 5/1…. This 5 yr old gelding is 0/3 lifetime coming off a 64 day layoff for low profile (kind way to say “below average”) trainer, Kenneth Black. Horse sports nice work tab and showed improvement last (w/Blinkers-On) finishing fourth after doing all the dirty work on front end…. Normally would not consider a 5 yr old in this spot; but if offering a decent price, lightly raced horse could improve off decent post draw and third time Tyler Base…. Will play at 5/1 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

ultracapper
04-30-2017, 07:57 PM
The 9th at SA 4/30 interests me also, but I don't see it like you. I basically see 3 contenders, with one standing appreciably above the other 2.

I see :2::3::4: being the contenders, with :2: being the least likely of the 3, and :4: looking very formidable. :2: is a 5yo that was gone from racing for 2 years and had a 3 week break in his training routine since last raced. That equals "dicey" in my book. He hasn't shown much finish in his past 2 races, which play into the other 2 contenders hands. :3: is a first time gelding that showed an even finish coming down the hill in last, but hasn't even shown that much finish when routing, but he wouldn't be the first horse to show appreciable improvement immediately after being gelded. :4: has shown some nice versatility in his past 2 races, made a big sweeping far turn move in last to put himself in a winning position at the 3/16ths pole, and blasted home in 11.2, only to be denied by the 4/5 favorite. That was a 12 horse field, so that winner must have looked the part to leave the gate at 4/5. :7::8::10::11: would be upsets in my book, and :1::6::9: would be fantasies.

Kenneth Black, the trainer of :2:, is a rock solid trainer that is in the unenviable position of taking over the Old English Rancho training duties from Donald Warren and basically overseeing the final dismantling of that operation.

20MTP :4: is the 2/1 fav. That 2/1 is a slight overlay in my book. I put him at 7/5, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go off at 5/2.

Muddy
04-30-2017, 08:06 PM
Alive to the 1234 in the pick 4 would love to see the 1 win for 1k payout.

1.00 ticket was 8/4611/1246/1234=48.00

#7 takes down the whole p-6 pool for 500k

Good Luck!

ultracapper
04-30-2017, 08:13 PM
:1: is a filly. Why Drysdale does this with his FTS fillies I just don't get. There are plenty of races for fillies and mares in SoCal, yet he throws the girls out there. In 15 years of watching SoCal racing, I can't remember he or Paddy Gallagher winning with a maiden filly against the boys. They both do it often enough though.

ultracapper
04-30-2017, 08:30 PM
Good enough hit there Murph. I'm sure you'll take that as often as not.

ultracapper
05-01-2017, 12:49 AM
Alive to the 1234 in the pick 4 would love to see the 1 win for 1k payout.

1.00 ticket was 8/4611/1246/1234=48.00

#7 takes down the whole p-6 pool for 500k

Good Luck!

Nice score Muddy. Thought you were Murph, a regular poster.

BETA
05-01-2017, 07:46 AM
Ultracapper…. Congratulations on picking the winner of SA9…. Excellent analysis!

I really regret the inappropriate comment I made regarding Kenneth Black…. My trainer stats for the last 12 months had him 1 for 23 in turf routes at Santa Anita with a very poor ROI…. I’m sorry that I hastily commented that this was a reflection of his ability…. Very small sample size and more an indication of the stock he has to work with…. His next 23 starts could tell a completely different story…. You are correct; Kenneth Black is a fine trainer!

BETA
05-01-2017, 09:15 AM
Apr 30th Results:
(Recommended play did not meet minimum odds requirement.)

YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



May 1st…. No plays today.

ultracapper
05-01-2017, 02:39 PM
Ultracapper…. Congratulations on picking the winner of SA9…. Excellent analysis!

I really regret the inappropriate comment I made regarding Kenneth Black…. My trainer stats for the last 12 months had him 1 for 23 in turf routes at Santa Anita with a very poor ROI…. I’m sorry that I hastily commented that this was a reflection of his ability…. Very small sample size and more an indication of the stock he has to work with…. His next 23 starts could tell a completely different story…. You are correct; Kenneth Black is a fine trainer!

You're right about Black BETA. OER has had a couple disbursement sales, and he's been left with what they haven't been able to sell at acceptable prices. Very soon after Johnston passed and Warren retired, Black was given the care of a homebred named What A View. WAV has since won multiple state stakes races, and may even be a graded winner. WAV is a fine horse, and Black has done a great job with him.

BETA
05-01-2017, 08:37 PM
May 1st Results:
No Plays.

YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



May 2nd…. 4 Potential Plays:

Play 1) CD/Race3 (12:45pm central): #3 Ivy Bell @ 7/2 or higher.
Play 2) PHA/Race8 (3:04pm central): #2 Distinct Diva @ 4/1 or higher.
Play 3) IND/Race7 (3:53pm central): #9 Grandpa Grumpy @ 2/1 or higher.
Play 4) MNR/Race5 (7:28pm central): #1 Amur Tiger @ 2/1 or higher.

BOL!

BETA
05-04-2017, 09:02 AM
May 2nd Results:
0 for 2 (on Qualified Plays)

YTD: 1 for 13 / $26 invested / $14.20 returned / -$11.80 (-45% ROI)

May 4th….

I’ve decided I’m not cut out for “posting” plays…. I certainly don’t mind losing when it’s my opinion; but, I’m uncomfortable with the notion that others might be following and losing based on my bad advice…. Because of this, I second guessed myself and didn’t post up the one play I liked yesterday (BEL8 / #6)…. An easy winner and paid $17.40…. This was the icing on the cake as it would likely be several more losing tickets before the next decent priced winner showed up! (Hopefully, those of you using my “lite” PP’s with contender grades spotted this horse?)

Regardless, very sorry to anyone who lost money based on my recommendations…. There were a few winners; but they did not qualify per my minimum odds recommendation…. In truth, my style is more tote board driven (verse Morning Line) and in turn, finalizing contenders at about the ten minute mark…. Then from that point forward, trying to figure out how best to leverage the top contenders…. I’m sure most of you operate the same way….

Anyway, thanks for the space and until further notice; anyone is welcome to use my “Lite” PP’s at the following link:

https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!