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menifee
04-18-2017, 12:06 AM
Has Irish War Cry leading the race with State of Honor and Conquest Mo Money sitting right off that lead. Franky, I'm stunned. I didn't see Irish War Cry getting to the lead. However, I've picked every Derby prep incorrectly so what do I know. Interestingly, Irap sits eighth and Always Dreaming sits 12th. Classic Empire 7th. Thoughts?

Fred Mertz
04-18-2017, 12:13 AM
I started to ignore the experts months ago and picked my own losers and I did much better as a bettor. Seriously.

p.s. I've got to quit reading here.

letswastemoney
04-18-2017, 12:16 AM
I just see the Pace Projector as a friend giving advice.

Of course, you want to listen to your friend and see what he thinks. But it's not something to tie yourself down to.

menifee
04-18-2017, 12:24 AM
I started to ignore the experts months ago and picked my own losers and I did much better as a bettor. Seriously.

p.s. I've got to quit reading here.

Lol. I'm too lazy to create my own pace projections so this is a pretty good tool. It has its limitations though and you still have to use your own judgment. As with all handicapping inputs these are simply tools, you still have to do the work to build your projections for how the race flow develops. It has Always Dreaming way too far back - the algorithm is probably seeing that GP slow paced allowance race and undervaluing his speed.

boys at tosconova
04-18-2017, 12:40 AM
IWC didn't even have the lead in the wood or FOY. now he's gonna have the early lead in the KD?

and while i think it's possible, i also think the lead will be available to any horse that wants it. i also thinks it's possible because he might be the best horse in the race.

but i don't think there is any likely scenario that always dreaming gets away 12. it was pretty much fact that he wants was going to be forwardly placed trying not to be on the lead in the fl derby. can't see how this changes much in the KD.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 09:04 AM
its all irrelevant until we see the post positions.

Robert Fischer
04-19-2017, 11:51 AM
Pace projectors give you a general look at the pace scenario.
You have to hand-craft it to make specific adjustments.

Bris also has Irish War Cry as an 'E/P 8', meaning he's a lead candidate on their numbers as well.

Mc990
04-19-2017, 12:01 PM
State of Honor (pending draw) looks very likely to "trip out"... Not only based on this pace projection.

He finally has some spacing between races (5 weeks). At least to me, he looks like he may have a slight forward move in him and that would make him extremely live.