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PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2017, 08:12 AM
Im not going to sit here and tell you Always Dreaming's performance in the Florida Derby was not good but of all the possible favorites he certainly is the most vulnerable. In the Florida Derby 4 of the top 5 finishers were at the front the whole way around. Both his other two route races, he got to sit on or right off slow paces and run slow beyers and pick up wins against sub par competition.

Bottom line: Always Dreaming has never won a race that did not favor his running style. Water gets much deeper in Kentucky.


Possible fools gold and very vulnerable.

Robert Fischer
04-17-2017, 01:14 PM
Catch-22
Never faced adversity in a route race / May get another friendly trip in the Derby.

Robert Fischer
04-17-2017, 02:07 PM
Local Hero probably doesn't get in. Stablemate Malagacy is another important pace factor.

Since the rule change to 'points', the pace has not been unreasonable.

Always Dreaming is also an 'unknown', rather than a horse that we're all certain will wilt with a harsh pace. Seems push-button, and hypothetically capable of sitting a relaxed E/P trip behind a Malagacy.

Still want to see the Pace Projector and the weather

letswastemoney
04-17-2017, 02:26 PM
I'm not a huge believer in bounce, but with Todd Pletcher, I feel like he specifically points towards the prep races. For example, One Liner was so impressive in his Southwest win, and now he's off the trail for no specific reason other than not training well.

So I just hope the tank isn't emptied on Always Dreaming.

f2tornado
04-17-2017, 03:05 PM
Im not going to sit here and tell you Always Dreaming's performance in the Florida Derby was not good but of all the possible favorites he certainly is the most vulnerable. In the Florida Derby 4 of the top 5 finishers were at the front the whole way around. Both his other two route races, he got to sit on or right off slow paces and run slow beyers and pick up wins against sub par competition.

Bottom line: Always Dreaming has never won a race that did not favor his running style. Water gets much deeper in Kentucky.


Possible fools gold and very vulnerable.

I said the same about American Pharoah and it did not matter. His Rebel Stakes was very similar to Dreaming's allowance. Slow then boom. Then both crushed their final 9F prep.

I'm not a huge believer in bounce, but with Todd Pletcher, I feel like he specifically points towards the prep races. For example, One Liner was so impressive in his Southwest win, and now he's off the trail for no specific reason other than not training well.

So I just hope the tank isn't emptied on Always Dreaming.

I think TAP gets a bad rap. He gets a lot of horses in the big race but ask yourself how many truly fit the bill. I only recall betting on one of them and that was Super Saver. Winning sire line, winning pilot, and fast fractions. AD fits the bill this year. If you like him then thank Classic Empire's effort for improved odds.

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2017, 03:54 PM
I said the same about American Pharoah and it did not matter. His Rebel Stakes was very similar to Dreaming's allowance. Slow then boom. Then both crushed their final 9F prep.





Pharoah did go into the derby with 3 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win under his belt. let alone 4 100 plus beyers

f2tornado
04-17-2017, 07:37 PM
Pharoah did go into the derby with 3 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win under his belt. let alone 4 100 plus beyers

Giacomo was a nw-2.
Charismatic's only stakes win was the Lexington.
Sea Hero never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Mine That Bird never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Super Saver never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Funny Cide never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.
Real Quiet never won a race in sophomore season until the Derby.

PowerUpPaynter
04-19-2017, 08:18 PM
https://twitter.com/TVG/status/854823857995296770





everyone loves this horse. i just dont get it...

1GCFAN
04-19-2017, 11:05 PM
This looks to be TAP best chance in a while. If this horse was with BB it would be a no doubter.

PowerUpPaynter
04-20-2017, 08:02 AM
But doesn't the fact that he has 1 quality win in a race that was speed favoring bother anyone? His other 2 route wins were slow races he sat on the lead vs a bunch of nobodies. He went from a 71 beyer to a 97... bounce?

I almost fell like California Chrome was picked apart more before his derby and he had a much better resume and was a clearly the best horse and maybe easiest derby lock of this century.

1GCFAN
04-20-2017, 12:12 PM
PUP - Agreed, but it is obvious that the talent is there and the TAP camp is very high on him. However, I feel he doesn't have enough bottom in him so I am looking to others for the win end.

boys at tosconova
04-26-2017, 03:17 AM
what i find to be strange is that you could have gotten 40/50-1 on this horse a day before his fla derby win.

it doesn't take much of a brainiac to see that he was going to be low odds in that race. so much so that the 5-2 - 3-1 was criminally low and you wanted nothing of it.

if you had access to make the KD future bet you were just counting on the horse being a monster and getting rewarded in a HUGE way. i'm sure people have HUGE bets on him @ 40-1. i'm not talking 5/10 bucks. that amount could have been played by the 2 dolla betta. I'm talking many 1k >5k bets to people that had pletchers ear.

obv pletch gets bet quite a bit but this this horse had plenty of fanfare in the inner circle. but it was being seeped out before the race. and there were plenty of clues and innuendos that this was a major player.

will these people be rewarded? this is a cue for all degens to come in here and say "no..he won't win because i played him".......lol

PowerUpPaynter
04-26-2017, 08:05 AM
http://socialalterations.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/TOSS-wordle.jpg



gotta sack up and take a stand vs one of the top 3. tossing the right one may be pretty profitable.

Julz
04-26-2017, 08:57 AM
So tell us how you REALLY feel!? :D

PowerUpPaynter
04-26-2017, 09:31 AM
i mean who was the last horse to go from allowance race to win a big 6 prep to win the derby? Big Brown? he aint no Big Brown man...

Julz
04-26-2017, 10:01 AM
I hear ya! Of the same thinking.

PowerUpPaynter
04-26-2017, 05:10 PM
Heard his gallop today was not ideal and he was all lathered and tugging.

AirNate012
04-26-2017, 05:34 PM
He was RANK on the track this morning....His last work will be this Friday.

nancy4487
04-26-2017, 11:24 PM
My first thought this morning was that I was glad I was not on his back!
Certainly not professional looking.

PowerUpPaynter
04-27-2017, 11:03 AM
Always Dreaming looked like crap again today.

The Biscuit
04-27-2017, 01:19 PM
Always Dreaming looked like crap again today.


Using an angle which I won't post because people will not value and bash , Always Dreaming and Classic Empire will not be in the money .... Maybe 4th though ?? Still working it ...

Hey if I'm right I just eliminated to of the bigger fav's from 1/2/3/ positions !!

GL !!

nancy4487
04-27-2017, 01:36 PM
Agreed. I thought of TAP's Keyed Entry ready to bolt

Wiley
04-27-2017, 02:02 PM
Frosted looked like this a couple of years ago in his pre Derby gallops. It will be interesting to see if he continues to behave this way in his work tomorrow. Sure looks like he needs a work to help take the edge off.

PowerUpPaynter
04-27-2017, 02:45 PM
Using an angle which I won't post because people will not value and bash , Always Dreaming and Classic Empire will not be in the money .... Maybe 4th though ?? Still working it ...

Hey if I'm right I just eliminated to of the bigger fav's from 1/2/3/ positions !!

GL !!

please share angle, i would like to hear anything that confirms my suspicions of Always Dreaming... that he's a fugazi

MNslappy
04-27-2017, 02:56 PM
A lot of differing opinions out there on what these last two days mean for Always Dreaming. Differing descriptions of the moves too. Is he happy and full of energy or being difficult? Is this just the way he acts galloping in the morning or is it something new and different, and thus concerning.

I'm not exactly sure what to make of it. But I'll say this, if he's this keen and headstrong when the gates open he's probably going to be in big trouble.

Wiley
04-27-2017, 03:24 PM
A lot of differing opinions out there on what these last two days mean for Always Dreaming. Differing descriptions of the moves too. Is he happy and full of energy or being difficult? Is this just the way he acts galloping in the morning or is it something new and different, and thus concerning.

I'm not exactly sure what to make of it. But I'll say this, if he's this keen and headstrong when the gates open he's probably going to be in big trouble.

DRF clocker Mike Welch said today that Pletcher is concerned about AD's antics, so this is probably something new from the colt. It looks to me, he has behaved like a pro in his races.

Agree if he pulls this in warms up to the Derby and the race itself, he would have to be tons the best to beat some of the other top Derby colts.

The Biscuit
04-27-2017, 05:58 PM
please share angle, i would like to hear anything that confirms my suspicions of Always Dreaming... that he's a fugazi

I will private message you if you want ...but I'm not taking any bashing from the forum ...

I don't know squat as many in here ....

I look for patterns of previous ITM and 4th Place finishers in the Derby since 1985 ...

I shared this with someone already but we were unsure of its value because of the research which is involved ...


Let me know ...


I respect your views and knowledge ....

boys at tosconova
04-28-2017, 08:40 AM
.

AirNate012
04-28-2017, 10:31 AM
Anyone catch his work this morning? Looked great. Went :59 and change, was never asked, huge gallop out. Looked much better today.

PowerUpPaynter
04-28-2017, 10:53 AM
Anyone catch his work this morning? Looked great. Went :59 and change, was never asked, huge gallop out. Looked much better today.

grrrr not what i wanted to hear. lol :puke:

AirNate012
04-28-2017, 11:27 AM
grrrr not what i wanted to hear. lol :puke:


He was eager and slightly rank at the beginning of the work though....fighting the jock a little. He should definitely be up near the pace I would imagine. Need to key a close eye on him.

Dream_Police
04-28-2017, 12:47 PM
this has been a little weird so far, some horses wanting to run all day(McCraken,AD) to those that don't want to do anything(J Boy). His work was interesting.

burnsy
04-29-2017, 11:59 AM
I commented on this horse in the Irish War Cry thread. Here's what I like, its not confirmed yet so I'm just using an angle and making a judgement at this point. The GP races seem to be shaping up as the "key" races in these preps. Of course, that's still got to be proven more but horses leaving the circuit have won or placed in major preps. The Blue Grass got blown up by Irap but Practical Joke ran well to get second besting two hyped favorites. Irish War Cry comes back to life in the Wood. This horse has 4 races and the last one made the competition look bad. Beating the field he beat the way he won was a pretty bold statement if he can hold this current form. This year there has been a lot horses running inconsistently, this horse is on the improve. He'll be short on odds but he deserves to be on tickets IMO. Which means my exactas, pics and at least in a double play. What do people expect? TP to jump up and down saying he has the best horse? With the record and problems he's had getting the Derby? The guy is stoic anyway, he's not a cheerleader but there's no denying this horse is going good right now when comparing these races.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-29-2017, 12:12 PM
I really hope this no-chancer is chalk come next Saturday.

Fager Fan
04-29-2017, 08:31 PM
He was RANK on the track this morning....His last work will be this Friday.

Friday? Boy, times are changing fast. You used to see the track full of last workers on Monday and Tuesday the week of. Then we started seeing Sat and Sun. Now Friday. Depressing.

I will let this horse beat me. I don't get the love honestly.

Murph
04-29-2017, 09:40 PM
I really hope this no-chancer is chalk come next Saturday.
I can probably help you out on this one. Not sure why the back blast on AD is coming from so many directions. I see him as TAP #1 chance Saturday. I have it on good authority that CE is value at 5-1. I want to put AD on the same number I think.

Do you really want to bet a qtr crack z-bar, refuse to work, kind of slow horse anyway again this year? I don't.

AirNate012
04-30-2017, 06:12 PM
Anyone see this yet? Hmm...


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/pletcher-hopes-calm-aggressive-always-dreaming-rider-equipment-change/

yankeelpn
04-30-2017, 10:27 PM
Anyone see this yet? Hmm...


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/pletcher-hopes-calm-aggressive-always-dreaming-rider-equipment-change/

I can't overlook him at the betting windows, but....will he be over aggressive and hot before the race. Hoping he doesnt run his race before it starts.

1. Always Dreaming
2. Gunnevera
3. Practical Joke
4. McCraken
5. Looking at Lee/Gormley/Irap

PowerUpPaynter
05-03-2017, 05:25 PM
So whats his path look like into the first turn? Do he go to the lead then back off? he cant really dip under state of honor who you would think would be jetting out of the gate because by that time battle of midway and irap at a minimum will cover him. I see some interesting possible traffic issues for him for at least where he would ideally like to be.

boys at tosconova
05-03-2017, 07:16 PM
So whats his path look like into the first turn? Do he go to the lead then back off? he cant really dip under state of honor who you would think would be jetting out of the gate because by that time battle of midway and irap at a minimum will cover him. I see some interesting possible traffic issues for him for at least where he would ideally like to be.



nobody wants to be on the lead. with this, will anybody elect to use more speed to get there? maybe. i still believe that anybody who wants the lead, will get it, and the fractions won't be that strong.

as for horses battling for close position behind said horse, well that's a different story.

as for where ad will be, it doesn't matter, you know he will likely be forwardly placed in the first group for a long time in position to win the race. as much as they don't want to be on the front end, it may not be that bad should he be there.

as for honor and midway....honor's decent race w/o blinks doesn't make him a speed burner anymore and midway doesn't need to be on the lead either.