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View Full Version : data for closers,race position & hitting the board


boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 03:21 PM
does anybody have any data going back at least 10 years as to closers/position on the track in relation to hitting the board?

i guess it's pretty hard defining this in order to tabulate it. but let's say horses 15-20th position at the first and even 2nd call.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 03:37 PM
does anybody have any data going back at least 10 years as to closers/position on the track in relation to hitting the board?

i guess it's pretty hard defining this in order to tabulate it. but let's say horses 15-20th position at the first call.

Not 10 years, but in 2013, the top 5 finishers at 1st call were 16th, 15th, 17th, 12th, and 18th. Mud track in which Orb won as favorite.

Oxbow ran 6th, and was as close to the lead as any finisher (Palace Malice meltdown race). Oxbow then went on to wire the Preakness at ridiculous odds. Palace obviously won the Belmont.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 03:39 PM
10 years also includes dead ass last wins from Street Sense '07 and Mine That Bird '08.

PhantomOnTour
04-16-2017, 03:40 PM
The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 03:43 PM
The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days

100% agree with POT. Extremely different era of KD racing. :ThmbUp:

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 03:49 PM
The rules of qualification are different now with the changes to the point system. No shot speedballs who won big races as juveniles aren't getting in anymore so the chances of a meltdown have been diminished.

I wouldn't look too far back for this study, maybe 4-5yrs...they're running a different race these days


that is a good point. i forgot about that. this tainted data is useless.

okay..4/5 years works, but it is such a small sample size....whatta ya got?

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 04:12 PM
that is a good point. i forgot about that. this tainted data is useless.

okay..4/5 years works, but it is such a small sample size....whatta ya got?

Even 4 years is bad because it includes the Orb Derby.

And that race was trash.

So, you have 2014, 2015, and 2016. If you want to look at those numbers.... 2015 was a 1,2,3 merry-go-round with Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund. Last year was a perfect set up for Nyquist, who later got exposed.

2014? I'm sure all the Chromies can tell you all about that one.:cool:

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby14-results.htm
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby15-results.htm
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby16-results.htm

2012 Derby with I'll Have Another is worth a 2nd look though. Bodemeister nearly wired the field in a monster effort to only get beat by a better.

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby12-results.htm

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 06:15 PM
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7NItMbWWKVQ/Tc1_EAfCsGI/AAAAAAAAAVY/JS4A1XMYJ3s/s1600/DerbyChart.jpg




https://thederbypost.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/2012derbychart.gif




http://i68.tinypic.com/15p0tgj.jpg

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 06:25 PM
Man, Shackleford and Bodemeister ran monster's didn't they?

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 06:27 PM
http://c482943.r43.cf2.rackcdn.com/kentucky-derby-2014-chart.jpg



http://c482943.r43.cf2.rackcdn.com/2015-kentucky-derby-chart-results.jpg

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 06:36 PM
Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 06:42 PM
Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

i dunno, but AP's field looks pretty weak as well

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 06:47 PM
i dunno, but AP's field looks pretty weak as well

Dortmund was the favorite in last year's BC Dirt Mile.

Frosted is a multi-graded stakes winner and placer since the Derby and a serious challenger in the UAE Derby.

Keen Ice won the Travers.

Bolo is a Graded Stakes winner on grass.

What did anybody in the CC class do?

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 06:53 PM
http://i63.tinypic.com/2pt2dc3.png

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 06:57 PM
outside of the orb race commanding curve and exxagerator were the only 2 horses to hit the board.

commanding curve was lol hard to play as well. no horse came from 18 out and it's looking like you have to be better than 15th

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 06:58 PM
Ha ha. And I had a HUGE (Trumpish) Exacta on Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews. Thanks for refreshing my memory. :pout:

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 07:03 PM
note to admin:

go to settings

find the one related to images and and only let them be so big so that horizontal scrolling doesn't come into play...

you can set it if somebody posts a 3000x3000 image it will default to whatever size you select

1200x1200 should work...lol

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 07:07 PM
Ha ha. And I had a HUGE (Trumpish) Exacta on Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews. Thanks for refreshing my memory. :pout:


ihad those horses as well.

i'm going to really limit my closers this year. and if i pick one i want to make sure he's not in the back/back

JustRalph
04-16-2017, 07:11 PM
Man, Shackleford and Bodemeister ran monster's didn't they?


Shackleford was fun to watch. Had a weird gate.

Couple weeks later.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8jx_DqyPHg

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 07:13 PM
Dortmund was the favorite in last year's BC Dirt Mile.

Frosted is a multi-graded stakes winner and placer since the Derby and a serious challenger in the UAE Derby.

Keen Ice won the Travers.

Bolo is a Graded Stakes winner on grass.

What did anybody in the CC class do?

weak in the sense of the chart and how everyone ran

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 07:14 PM
Shackleford was fun to watch. Had a weird gate.

Couple weeks later.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8jx_DqyPHg

I had the LoveShack that race. Such a fun one to watch again. :headbanger:

Frost king
04-16-2017, 08:37 PM
Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

And to think, that donkey won Horse of the Year twice. Baffert beat him both times on the biggest day of the year, and they still made him HOY. Just don't get it sometimes.

Thomas Roulston
04-16-2017, 08:52 PM
If the Derby did what the Melbourne Cup has always done - pay back 10 monies (with 6th through 10th getting the same) - the closers would probably be even more successful (the Belmont now pays 8 monies so why not?).

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 09:01 PM
If the Derby did what the Melbourne Cup has always done - pay back 10 monies (with 6th through 10th getting the same) - the closers would probably be even more successful (the Belmont now pays 8 monies so why not?).

So if you pay more for 6th - 10th we'll get a better field?

I'm sure I am not understanding your question.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 09:32 PM
And to think, that donkey won Horse of the Year twice. Baffert beat him both times on the biggest day of the year, and they still made him HOY. Just don't get it sometimes.

Yes clearly you don't get it but debating California Chrome is so 2014... His career is over, as a fan of the sport im so glad I got to see him at his best. Who doesn't love a good ole rags to riches story?

Julz
04-17-2017, 01:37 AM
Does anyone think fast and accurate can blow up the exotics. I know he ran horribly slow but I did some digging, and I know it's hard to compare, but he ran the spiral faster than animal kingdom who won the derby, and ran a faster time than went the day well who finished fourth the year I'll have another and body won. He also has one of stans special conduit mares along with blue larkspur, Mahmoud, and war admiral in the female family. In addition, even though he came home slow, animal kingdom finished in around 40 seconds and went the day well did not meet the final fraction criteria as well. His dosage index is good and he just had a 5 furlong work in 59 flat on dirt. I know it's a long shot, but again he may be a horse that's getting better, has some positives, and can get into the exotics as a big price. Just looking for thiughts......and please be kind as I tried to lay out my case......at least.

Andrick
04-17-2017, 01:53 AM
Does anyone think fast and accurate can blow up the exotics. I know he ran horribly slow but I did some digging, and I know it's hard to compare, but he ran the spiral faster than animal kingdom who won the derby, and ran a faster time than went the day well who finished fourth the year I'll have another and body won. He also has one of stans special conduit mares along with blue larkspur, Mahmoud, and war admiral in the female family. In addition, even though he came home slow, animal kingdom finished in around 40 seconds and went the day well did not meet the final fraction criteria as well. His dosage index is good and he just had a 5 furlong work in 59 flat on dirt. I know it's a long shot, but again he may be a horse that's getting better, has some positives, and can get into the exotics as a big price. Just looking for thiughts......and please be kind as I tried to lay out my case......at least.

He'll be in the 50/1 range in the Derby, Julz. If you yourself are seeing a couple of things that you might like about him then let that be your guide as to if and how you use him.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 02:26 AM
Does anyone think fast and accurate can blow up the exotics. I know he ran horribly slow but I did some digging, and I know it's hard to compare, but he ran the spiral faster than animal kingdom who won the derby, and ran a faster time than went the day well who finished fourth the year I'll have another and body won. He also has one of stans special conduit mares along with blue larkspur, Mahmoud, and war admiral in the female family. In addition, even though he came home slow, animal kingdom finished in around 40 seconds and went the day well did not meet the final fraction criteria as well. His dosage index is good and he just had a 5 furlong work in 59 flat on dirt. I know it's a long shot, but again he may be a horse that's getting better, has some positives, and can get into the exotics as a big price. Just looking for thiughts......and please be kind as I tried to lay out my case......at least.

i wouldn't put any money on him. surface/distance/class all are negs.

i would look at honor and serve or battle of midway if you want a horse w/ some early foot at long odds. i can toss half the field and these two would still be on the list based on a few things and potential positioning.

i think battle of midway will be buried odds wise and he has room to improve. he can stalk as well. should be in great shape throughout the race if he has any horse at all

Andrick
04-17-2017, 03:08 AM
i wouldn't put any money on him. surface/distance/class all are negs.

i would look at honor and serve or battle of midway if you want a horse w/ some early foot at long odds. i can toss half the field and these two would still be on the list based on a few things and potential positioning.

i think battle of midway will be buried odds wise and he has room to improve. he can stalk as well. should be in great shape throughout the race if he has any horse at all

Agree with you on State of Honor and Battle of Midway. I've tossed half the field already and both of those are still sticking around with me, albeit not all that high on my list. A few things to like with each of them, though.

State of Honor is the honest sort that has hit the board in each of his last 6 races. He'll also be going into the Derby on a pair-pair pattern. He has built a foundation in races over a mile in length having already run in 5 of those during his career so far. He's also ran in 5 races that saw field sizes of 10+. The 10F is probably too far for him, but you can probably say that about 75% of this year's field. Under the right circumstances I could certainly see him sticking around at the end to round out a tri or super.

Battle of Midway is the one with the higher upside of the two (and probably more downside too) and he's also going into the Derby on a pair-pair pattern as well. He'd be the only one out of the Santa Anita Derby that I'd even want to give a look to.

yankeelpn
04-17-2017, 05:25 AM
i wouldn't put any money on him. surface/distance/class all are negs.

i would look at honor and serve or battle of midway if you want a horse w/ some early foot at long odds. i can toss half the field and these two would still be on the list based on a few things and potential positioning.

i think battle of midway will be buried odds wise and he has room to improve. he can stalk as well. should be in great shape throughout the race if he has any horse at all

Are you worried that Battle of Midway will be making his 5th start this year in the KD? But to add his Jockey C.Nakatani is due for his 1st KD win.

PaceAdvantage
04-17-2017, 02:44 PM
note to admin:

go to settings

find the one related to images and and only let them be so big so that horizontal scrolling doesn't come into play...

you can set it if somebody posts a 3000x3000 image it will default to whatever size you select

1200x1200 should work...lolNote to boys at tosconova:

If you post an image that turns out to be too big, go back and edit your post...and wrap the URL with the RESIZE tags (highlight the link, including the URL tags, then click this --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/editor/resize.png )

You're welcome...this function has been around for many weeks now. I just did it for you in this thread.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 07:51 PM
Are you worried that Battle of Midway will be making his 5th start this year in the KD? But to add his Jockey C.Nakatani is due for his 1st KD win.

worried? sure i like to see more, but part of what you haven't seen is prolly why he's a little compelling. 2/3 of all the horses in the KD basically don't show up or only get one call for any number of reasons. and like what andrick said. there's higher upside as well as higher downside because you don't know certain limitations with this horse. and like andrick, i'm not even considering gormley as well.

whereas honor doesn't look like he can win the KD, and is basically what you see is what you get. i prolly won't be playing him for 1st/2nd, because i feel he's been very fortuitous thus far. but his last race he did show a different look w/o blinks and you have to say it was another positive step, as there was no way he would be able to pike this group. now, there's more hope for the horse

menifee
04-18-2017, 06:03 PM
Wow. Forgot how horrid that field was that California Chrome beat.

Did ANYBODY in that field win another race? I'm not even talking about a Graded Stakes race, I'm talking about ANY race.

Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy. But your point is well taken, it was a really bad field.