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PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 08:34 AM
Hence seems to be the early wise guy horse. So i figured we should start a discussion on him. I actually like him. Had a dream last night he actually won the derby.

What kind of odds do you think we can get on him? Over 20-1? A lot of simple minded money bet in the derby and doubt people are looking to teh Sunland Derby as much... Sometimes I wish I bet more simple minded... Classic over thinker, Ha...

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 10:48 AM
I like the combination of Mr Prospector line over AP Indy/ Nasrullah line. It spells dirty good to me but like Sbcaris has said I have no evidence to support my theory. But the fact that he ran down a legitimately fast pace is saying something. Many genuine plodders are stranded by a fast pace. Like the connections also. This one IMO is a live contender.

Spalding No!
04-13-2017, 11:23 AM
The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.

He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.

Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.

Wait for the turf.

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 02:14 PM
The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.

He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.

Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.

Wait for the turf.

You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.

Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events.

f2tornado
04-13-2017, 02:59 PM
Agree with Cinci. A lot of three year olds look like dung relative to G1 company then suddenly pop.

Hence certainly has a nice pedigree. RAN on top, Buckpasser-x, DI of 3.31 with 28 points but lacking any solid or professional points. The success in the Derby of RAN sire line and also Buckpasser-x with fast fractions compels me to use this one, underneath at a minimum. Where I put him might ultimately depend on him obtaining big league pilot and Asmussen's zapper having fully charged batteries.

Andrick
04-13-2017, 05:12 PM
Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 05:26 PM
Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.

What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1

Andrick
04-13-2017, 05:35 PM
What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1

Yeah, you could be right, Paynter. I'll be okay with using him at 20/1, though.

Spalding No!
04-13-2017, 07:05 PM
You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.
Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).

Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.

Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.
Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.

Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events.
Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...

boys at tosconova
04-13-2017, 07:27 PM
when i look at hence i see a horse that's only run one bad race and that was his first start. and it's very easy toss it because of it.

even when he finished 7th in the SW stakes it was a good race. basically only losing 3rd by around 1L from post 10 the first time tackling graded stakes. this race is deceiving good. but it looks ehhhhh/bad on paper. without digging around.

(i ended up using dilettante over hence in the sunland derby. i thought he looked a lil better better than him and would be in better position. still kicking myself because of it)

if you look at his races he has a 144 on the slop oakland to break im maiden, and you really have to like that 136 for the mile as a 2yr old @ CD where he was pushing the pace the whole race.

i didn't examine his sunland race that much that much yet, but from watching it a couple of times you can tell he was going to make a big move and prolly win. he even showed a little early foot as well.

but the thing is i saw a horse that didn't want to pass horses once he got up next to them. i don't know so much if he passed these horses or if they tired and he went by. and even when he pulled up next to conquest mo there was a a brief few seconds where it didn't look like he was going to get by him.

conquest mo ran a nice race in the sunland. left for position, raced wide and tired late.

Robert Fischer
04-13-2017, 07:55 PM
He's got talent.
Something about his stride, hijinks, and slow progress( was supposed to win the Churchill MDN/BenGreely) makes me wonder about underlying issues.

If he runs his 'A' race, he at least belongs in the Derby conversation. There's also always a chance he continues to mature into a leader of the crop.

He's not my key horse, but I'm not tossing him either.

boys at tosconova
04-13-2017, 08:07 PM
i'm sorry. in my above post i meant to say hence showed a lil speed in the SW


as a side note: without cutting/pasteing the spalding/cincy spat.

i have to agree w/ spalding. not only was cincy wrong to a degree he even brought insults into the equation. whatever comeback spalding give him is justified imo.

ps......i luv me some baby ruth...haha if u see what i did here.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 08:34 PM
Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.


Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...

RAN sire line, Buckpasser in the X

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 09:09 PM
Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).

Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.


Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.


Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...

You are still ducking and missing it. Mediocre closers can't close in fast fractions. A fast pace strands them. Mediocre closers can stalk(and getting into the technicalities of lengths back is also not the point) a mediocre pace and overwhelm mediocre speed. Running down a fast pace in fast fractions is only step 1 for a closer intent on winning the derby. What I am pointing out is far removed from your dumb dumb point about basic pace setups.

And you have a dumb dumb interpretation of stamina. You ignored the precocity aspect of it and are directly using the generic AWD and the skills of the sire as a rationale basis. Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get. That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless. The Machiavellian line of Mr Prospector produced Street Sense so I am not writing it off. Plus the horse is showing ability on dirt. If he was failing here you can cite the need for turf but he's not.

Anyway I play horses not whiffle ball. Bring your big boy bat and learn some $hit before you come at me with these generic Playschool tools!:)

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 09:55 PM
Rewatched the Southwest again tonight. Not much positive in that from him. I guess no video of any of his other races?

Andrick
04-13-2017, 10:25 PM
Rewatched the Southwest again tonight. Not much positive in that from him. I guess no video of any of his other races?

You should be able to find video of all his races on the net, Paynter. Whether it be on the bloodhorse or somewhere else. Check out his "adventurous" maiden win when you get the chance.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 10:37 PM
You should be able to find video of all his races on the net, Paynter. Whether it be on the bloodhorse or somewhere else. Check out his "adventurous" maiden win when you get the chance.

ah found it. good ole google... hell of a stretch run, what the hell caused him to duck in like that? but he ducked in and had to restart and won. thats pretty impressive.

Spalding No!
04-13-2017, 11:17 PM
You are still ducking and missing it.
From the looks of it, I don't want to catch whatever it is that's afflicting you.

Mediocre closers can't close in fast fractions. A fast pace strands them.
If by "fast pace" you mean quality horses that can carry their speed, I agree. We saw that in the Southwest, when a mediocre closer like Hence failed to make up any ground on the quality One Liner, who was stretching out for the first time.

Mediocre closers can stalk(and getting into the technicalities of lengths back is also not the point) a mediocre pace and overwhelm mediocre speed.
If by "mediocre speed" you mean lesser quality horses that "pop and stop", I agree. We saw that in the Sunland Derby, when a mediocre closer like Hence went by the cheap speed of Bronze Age and Hedge Fund.

Sorry for "getting into technicalities" with regards to running position. I guess it wouldn't have mattered if Hence was only a couple lengths off the fast pace. I'm sure that wouldn't have affected his stretch punch at all.

What I am pointing out is far removed from your dumb dumb point about basic pace setups.
No kidding. Your stuff is far removed from anything that has to do with reality. In fact, I'd rather take a dum-dum to the temple then read any more of this...

And you have a dumb dumb interpretation of stamina. You ignored the precocity aspect of it and are directly using the generic AWD and the skills of the sire as a rationale basis.
No, I'm pretty sure I mentioned the sire's progeny, too.

Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get.
Wow, an integer, a capital letter, and a pair of asterisks. Who cares what his other offspring have done (or not done) on the track. I'm sold.

That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless.
He also gets better the cheaper he goes. Saratoga>Churchill>Oaklawn>Sunland Park. He'll be swimming upstream next time out.

Anyway I play horses not whiffle ball. Bring your big boy bat and learn some $hit before you come at me with these generic Playschool tools!:)
Screw that. I need an orbitoclast and a mallet for this mess.

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 04:50 AM
cincy- Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get.

spalding-"Wow, an integer, a capital letter, and a pair of asterisks. Who cares what his other offspring have done (or not done) on the track. I'm sold"

http://i68.tinypic.com/5015x3.jpg


cincy- That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless.

spalding- "He also gets better the cheaper he goes. Saratoga>Churchill>Oaklawn>Sunland Park. He'll be swimming upstream next time out."


https://media.giphy.com/media/BYY4TcNltmGvm/giphy.gif

CincyHorseplayer
04-14-2017, 04:54 AM
You think links are going to get you out of this?! Very funny KD social justice dumbass!

Try again!

:headbanger:

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 05:04 AM
You think links are going to get you out of this?! Very funny KD social justice dumbass!

Try again!

:headbanger:

i think you need to find a new word other than dumb. you're single handedly ruining that word for all of us with your retorts.

the hence thread is really taking shape

CincyHorseplayer
04-14-2017, 05:17 AM
i think you need to find a new word other than dumb. you're single handedly ruining that word for all of us with your retorts.

the hence thread is really taking shape

For all intents and purposes we are banging it up. I think I have a contender not a winner. Love the sword rattling! We have been banging against the wall of ideas. I say dumb only because it's 1 race. Only because why?

You fight so awesome. Not having it over here!

Anyway whatever. Let's jam!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMK0prafzw0

PowerUpPaynter
04-14-2017, 11:32 AM
Conquest Mo Money has the highest 2017 routing speed figure in the Arkansas Derby on BRIS - -if runs a good one im gonna love Hence even more

CincyHorseplayer
04-14-2017, 02:35 PM
Absolutely the love the Puritanical ideas when it comes to Triple Crown contenders! And the word dumb is definitely apropos! Plenty of good passion to go round with the TC on deck. But reading these posts every day wow! I don't doubt the intelligence but there isn't much experience in the analysis. There are holes in every handicapping theory. Don't dig in when someone pokes those holes in them. Anyway great racing today. Let's get at it boys!

MNslappy
04-14-2017, 02:52 PM
Very low TimeForm fig.

BUT, I rewatched the Sunland Derby a few times and I walk away more a lot more impressed than I was after watching it live the first time. Looks like a horse that could jump up and be right there if he gets the trip.

Just like Irap, I'm not sure what I'll do with Hence. This is a fun Derby to dissect.

PowerUpPaynter
04-14-2017, 03:07 PM
Over 25-1 you gotta just make the win bet and focus on others in exotics. thats what im hoping for

PowerUpPaynter
04-15-2017, 08:52 PM
Conquest Mo Money finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Irap won the Bluegrass. Both beaten by Hence in the Sunland.

MNslappy
04-16-2017, 02:59 AM
I'm pretty sure he tweeted this right after the Arkansas Derby

@andyserling

Someone has to say it.....the Sunland Derby may have been the best prep this year.

CincyHorseplayer
04-16-2017, 03:08 AM
Conquest Mo Money finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Irap won the Bluegrass. Both beaten by Hence in the Sunland.

Gettin pretty excitin isn't it?! I'm pretty sure how I am going to bet the Derby. Will share when we get close brother!

Vinnie
04-16-2017, 01:22 PM
Any projections on what you guys believe Hence's odds might be if he makes it to the starting gate on Derby day. Just curious to hear some opinions. :) I can't help but to be a little bit excited about this one!!

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 01:26 PM
Any projections on what you guys believe Hence's odds might be if he makes it to the starting gate on Derby day. Just curious to hear some opinions. :) I can't help but to be a little bit excited about this one!!

In my humble opinion, he'll be around 22/1 to 25/1. If he is the supposed "wise guy" horse that it already seems he might be, he'll be 15/1 to 17/1 or so.

Again, just my humble opinion of over 25 years of wagering on the race.

Vinnie
04-16-2017, 01:33 PM
Thank you Lemon Drop:

All that I can say is I truly hope that you are correct in your assessment. I would love to see him at or around such projected odds. I would be all over that. Of course, that is if the race were to be going off right now.... ;)

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 01:55 PM
i like him a lot more north of 20-1 than 15-1. If he's 15-1 and Gunnevera is 12-1 Gunnevera is a better bet. They are so similar in so many ways and Gunnevera is more polished and has run in better class.

Both have Buckpasser in the X, Hence also has Raise A Native sire line. Gunnevera ran his last eight in 12 1/5 while Hence ran is in 12 2/5, Gunnevera ran his final 3/8 in 36 1/5 and Hence ran his in 37 3/5, both have made 3 starts at age 3. Gunnevera won 1 of those 3 and finished in the money all three times. Hence won 2 of those 3 and finished in the money twice.

Vinnie
04-16-2017, 02:17 PM
Excellent points made. I am of the belief whether it is properly founded or not that Hence may be at the point of peaking at just about the right time for a superb effort on Derby Day. However, on the other hand, who really knows when it comes to these precocious young horses who are literally maturing at the passing of each day... :)

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 02:24 PM
Excellent points made. I am of the belief whether it is properly founded or not that Hence may be at the point of peaking at just about the right time for a superb effort on Derby Day. However, on the other hand, who really knows when it comes to these precocious young horses who are literally maturing at the passing of each day... :)

Great stuff Vinnie. Put a smile to my face on such a great day. Very poetic and well said.:ThmbUp:

I think we'll all enjoy this Derby. Win, lose, in between, or whatever. This is what I believe this often criticized point system was to bring about. Chaos, and a real field of 3YO 10F potential winners. And in 2017, we have it.

Vinnie
04-16-2017, 02:45 PM
Thank you sir. I am glad that you liked it. This is a wonderful time of year regardless of the myriad of things that are currently going on, and, it is also an excellent time to get excited about the races in general. Just like you said pretty much, whatever the outcome may be, I am thrilled to currently have the prospect of such a wide open field for this year's Derby. How many years past have we had several horses that have far and away stood out from the rest of the prospective participants? Far too many than I care to remember if you ask me!!

I just wanted to tell you sir, "GO HUSKERS"!! I grew up in Omaha, NE and played baseball at former Kearney State College back in the Mid 80's. Love Lincoln and miss my old stomping grounds in Nebraska. Have a great day and enjoy the races.

Secondbest
04-16-2017, 03:42 PM
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 03:55 PM
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?

i have concerns about where he'll be on the track. if he's in the third grouping he'll be having cocktails w/ gunnevera at the very back. but unlike him i do think he can be up closer if he wanted to. but that doesn;t mean he will..lol

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 03:56 PM
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?

Not me.

Concerns have to be his dud in the Southwest (yeah, I was a race early on betting him) Was then shipped to Sunland for easier going.

While that race has showed up big and a supposed "key" race, connections were obviously looking to backdoor this guy in.

Then you have the whole bounce problem. He ran is eyeballs out in his last. Will he improve or regress? Most horses do the latter in their next out after a top end career best effort without backing on their past form.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 04:00 PM
i have concerns about where he'll be on the track. if he's in the third grouping he'll be having cocktails w/ gunnevera at the very back. but unlike him i do think he can be up closer if he wanted to. but that doesn;t mean he will..lol


I see Hence as a Gin and Tonic. Maybe even a Mojito.

Gunnevera is a Budweiser with a shot of Jack.

Secondbest
04-16-2017, 04:27 PM
Going to see how he works. I am not a trainer but a 7f work ala Baffert would be nice. If he takes to the track he's a must put in exotics.But it's still a way to go until the race. We will see

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 07:29 PM
http://i66.tinypic.com/nbujxi.jpg

PaceAdvantage
04-18-2017, 12:53 AM
http://i66.tinypic.com/nbujxi.jpgIf you want an image to appear at FULL SIZE without mucking up the board, simply save it to your PC and upload it to your post as an attachment (scroll down while entering a new post and look for the MANAGE ATTACHMENTS button)

MNslappy
04-18-2017, 01:42 AM
Hence, highest last race fig in the BRIS pps.


Hence 103
Irish War Cry 102
Always Dreaming 102
Irap 100
Girvin 99

lamboguy
04-18-2017, 04:02 AM
HENCE is going to be what my derby prayer's are going to be about this year. i am usually on an Assmussen horse in that race every year, i was all over GUNRUNNER last year. i invested in CURLIN heavily as well. one of these years Steve is going to get his win.

yankeelpn
04-18-2017, 08:40 AM
I think Gunnevera will be closer to the pace this time.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 09:05 AM
Hence, highest last race fig in the BRIS pps.


Hence 103
Irish War Cry 102
Always Dreaming 102
Irap 100
Girvin 99

Alot to like about this horse as a long shot but if he becomes the wise guy horse and odds drop below 15-1 not the greatest play.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 09:29 AM
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Kentucky_Derby_2017_On_the_Hence_123#


The buzz is going to build with this horse we arent going to gets anywhere close to the odds we would hope for

MNslappy
04-18-2017, 01:47 PM
True, I don't think we'll see 15-1. However with his numbers and where he ranks compared to the rest of the field, what are his actual fair odds? I can't wait to see what PA does with him, he's very very good at creating an odds line on these big races.

Isn't 7-1 or 8-1 or 10-1 pretty good value on a horse that's coming in with some of the highest figs in the race? Unless he's the 3-1 favorite or something ridiculous like that, I still think Hence is going to offer value when the gates open based on his numbers and where they rank against the rest of em.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 08:08 PM
I cant see him in the 10-1 range. sure would blow if he was

Mc990
04-18-2017, 08:49 PM
True, I don't think we'll see 15-1. However with his numbers and where he ranks compared to the rest of the field, what are his actual fair odds? I can't wait to see what PA does with him, he's very very good at creating an odds line on these big races.

Isn't 7-1 or 8-1 or 10-1 pretty good value on a horse that's coming in with some of the highest figs in the race? Unless he's the 3-1 favorite or something ridiculous like that, I still think Hence is going to offer value when the gates open based on his numbers and where they rank against the rest of em.

Listen, I like Hence but do you really believe there is value at 7-1? Is he better than 12.5% to win? No.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 08:58 PM
Hence's Sunland Beyer upgraded to a 97

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 08:59 PM
Listen, I like Hence but do you really believe there is value at 7-1? Is he better than 12.5% to win? No.

7-1 will make me puke. I want 20-1 will settle for 15-1 anything less and im going out back to my kicking tree!

Secondbest
04-18-2017, 09:28 PM
Anyone who picks up a form can see how Hence beat Irap and Conquest and how they ran since.Look at the love he's getting here.I wouldn't be shocked if he was third choice after Always Dreaming and Classic Empire

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 09:43 PM
Anyone who picks up a form can see how Hence beat Irap and Conquest and how they ran since.Look at the love he's getting here.I wouldn't be shocked if he was third choice after Always Dreaming and Classic Empire

:puke: :pout:


thats just annoying... he does not deserve to be any less than 12-1.

Got to figure Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, and probably McCraken go off at lower odds. In a 20 horse field your only likely to have so many under 10-1.

Mc990
04-18-2017, 09:48 PM
Anyone who picks up a form can see how Hence beat Irap and Conquest and how they ran since.Look at the love he's getting here.I wouldn't be shocked if he was third choice after Always Dreaming and Classic Empire

He has to be longer than AD, CE, IWC, McCk, PJ and Gunn... We'l see from there

Secondbest
04-19-2017, 12:38 PM
He has to be longer than AD, CE, IWC, McCk, PJ and Gunn... We'l see from there

Don't be so sure. I hope I'm wrong but like you said we'll see.

Immortal6
04-19-2017, 08:08 PM
7-1 will make me puke. I want 20-1 will settle for 15-1 anything less and im going out back to my kicking tree!

If you are really looking for 20-1 and want to bet him to win I would take a gander at some sports wagering sites. He is currently at 22-1 odds on the book I use. Thinking I'll throw $20 on him and lock him down at what I would consider a great price.

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 02:29 PM
Florent Geroux will ride Hence.

Senditin
04-24-2017, 11:30 PM
Looks like Hence is a sure play for top 3 positions in the Kentucky Derby especially with Geroux on board. Seems Hence will be an underlay at 8-1 though. Smart money will be on tote.

Richie
04-25-2017, 06:56 AM
Hence wont be near 7-1 and there ain't any smart money on tote derby day, just the opposite

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2017, 07:58 AM
Hence wont be near 7-1 and there ain't any smart money on tote derby day, just the opposite


I love dumb money!!!! YES YES YES YES :headbanger:


I think Hence goes off between 12-1 and 17-1

The Biscuit
04-25-2017, 09:42 AM
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Kentucky_Derby_2017_On_the_Hence_123#


The buzz is going to build with this horse we arent going to gets anywhere close to the odds we would hope for


Thanks for sharing bro !

Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?

Longshot
04-25-2017, 10:53 AM
Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?[/QUOTE]

Hence will be off 41 days since his last race. According to my database from 9657 races with 30 to 89 days since their last race Asmussen Wins 21% and is in the money 52%.

Parson
04-25-2017, 11:02 AM
Well any hope of value disappeared to day. The front page of the sports section in Louisville Courier Journal has declared him the 'wiseguy' horse this year.


http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2017/04/24/kentucky-derby-2017-asmussens-hence-looks-wise-guy-horse/100841518/

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2017, 12:09 PM
Well any hope of value disappeared to day. The front page of the sports section in Louisville Courier Journal has declared him the 'wiseguy' horse this year.


http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2017/04/24/kentucky-derby-2017-asmussens-hence-looks-wise-guy-horse/100841518/


wise guy or not still gotta figure 12-1 at an absolute minimum... right?

sbcaris
04-25-2017, 12:18 PM
One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).

AirNate012
04-25-2017, 01:11 PM
wise guy or not still gotta figure 12-1 at an absolute minimum... right?

Think about who will be ahead of him in odds:

-Classic Empire
-Always Dreaming
-Irish War Cry
-McCracken
-Gunnevera


I will be shocked if he's lower than 15/1. I'm guessing around 20/1 at post.

Robert Fischer
04-25-2017, 01:14 PM
Hence was one horse who I was watching workouts for. I want to see if he jumps off the screen as an obvious superstar athlete.

I watched his work 4/25/17, and he did not jump off the screen for me. Asmussen is not really a Baffert type w/ workouts, and Hence's was probably a little on the fast side for Asmussen. Yet, for whatever reason, I didn't see anything that would make me know he's an amazing Grade 1 athlete at the top of his crop. That doesn't mean it isn't there.

His workouts haven't shed any new light for me. Still have him as a horse that has run an 'B' derby prep performance, while trip-aided. That isn't bad at all.

The Biscuit
04-25-2017, 02:23 PM
Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?

Hence will be off 41 days since his last race. According to my database from 9657 races with 30 to 89 days since their last race Asmussen Wins 21% and is in the money 52%.[/QUOTE]

I would say that is pretty well ??

I thought anything over 20 % winners is good with a trainer ???

Solid / Great Work ....Thank you !!!

The Biscuit
04-25-2017, 02:25 PM
One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).


Feel like the Red Baron getting shot down by Snoopy ....

Thanks for posting though ....

f2tornado
04-25-2017, 02:34 PM
One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).

This is an interesting observation. For what it's worth, I don't notice Mr. P showing up on dam side pedigrees as much as the top side... and when I do, it's usually in the "power hole" (top line of dam sire). Limited sample size?

I'm not big on the flatter game at this stage of a Thoroughbred career but consider Hence beat Irap (who beat everyone in the Blue Grass) and Conquest Mo Money (who beat everyone but Classic Empire in the Ark). You can view this as the Sunland being a superior prep or take some Mike Watchmaker skepticism suggesting an indictment on the Blue Grass and Ark fields. I'm inclined to believe the prep was as real as any this year.

Hence scored the highest Brisnet figure off all 9F preps, beating Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry by a point. The amended BSF is tied for second best with Always Dreaming with Irish having the only triple digit BSF.

Hence is RAN sire line which have won about half the Derby races in recent decades in spite of only representing a quarter of all starters. He certainly ran fast fractions at Sunland but we don't have a large sample size for horses coming from that prep. He gets a leading rider in Geroux who should know how to navigate 10 panels. And if you pardon my sarcasm, he gets Asmussen's zapper. Also, if you're a fan of Jon White's Derby strike system then he only has one compared to two for Always Dreaming.

I don't see a strong reason not to play Hence. He will join Classic Empire and Always Dreaming (and maybe a recreational wager on longshot Lookin at Lee) on top my tickets. I figure Hence will be around 12-1 on the tote, about where I expect McCraken.

Julz
04-25-2017, 03:36 PM
I think the problem is that you've already picked your key horse and are looking for negatives of other horses in order to fit your picks. When it comes to the derby you can't fall in love with your pick. I watched both of his works and both were excellent. I also have clockers I speak to and they gave rave reviews. I've made the mistake you made many times in the past and have paid for it when I fell in love with a horse. He is actually not my pick to win, but I cannot say anything he has done wrong either. He smoked Irap who won the bluegrass and conquest who gave classic empire, the eventual chalk for the derby, all he could handle. I feel like you're looking for negatives because you've already made your selection based on previous posts. My point is, pick your winner, pick your horse, but don't back into it and find negatives on other horses when he has done nothing but win convincingly and train well, and in great times. If this is actually one of the horses you're concerned about, throw him in some exotics on top and hope for the best, while playing your selection more heavily.

Parson
04-25-2017, 04:52 PM
Stan who were the 3 place horses?

sbcaris
04-25-2017, 06:08 PM
The three place horses that carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position were:

Firing Line in--2015 (Mr. Prospector is the broodmare sire of Firing Line's broodmare sire).

Golden Soul in 2013 (Mr. Prospector is his broodmare sire).

Bluegrass Cat 2006 (Mr. Prospector is his second damsire).

Interestingly, the only winner with Mr. Prospector in the X was Super Saver who caught a sloppy track in 2010. Mr. Prospector is Super Saver's second damsire.

Golden Soul in 2013 also caught a sloppy track and his broodmare sire was Mr. Prospector, a noted mud sire.

This year Girvin a leading contender has Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and Hence has Mr. Prospector as his second damsire.

boys at tosconova
04-25-2017, 06:20 PM
c'mon....let's be real here. hence benefited from a fast past in the sunland derby. he chugged by several cheap and dead horses from the back of the back going 1 1/8. yes it was nice that he sustained the move, but i'm not really to proclaim this horse as a must use in the KD.

imo he's just another closer in a race that has plenty of good closers. that doesn't mean you can't use him. but if your resident gambling degen that never wins starts to like him, because of what he heard or read it's a good bet he won't.

and lol @ irat that race. this pig couldn't get by hedge fund.

Julz
04-25-2017, 07:06 PM
Hi Stan-with regard to the 3 second place finishers with prospector X-all 3 have special conduit mares. I've noticed in the past, many that fill out the tris and supers have the conduit mares designated by Bill lathrop. See the year I'll have another won. All 4 finishers had a special conduit along with ran. Orbs year I believe 3 out of 4 had a conduit. Point being we can't discount a prospector x if they have one of the conduit mares.

sbcaris
04-25-2017, 07:15 PM
jules: Certainly something to consider before making ones final decisions on Derby day is the conduit mare in tail-female.

Blenheim
04-25-2017, 07:42 PM
Short on class.

Julz
04-25-2017, 07:43 PM
Thanks for the quick reply, Stan. Even though he doesn't have a designated conduit, I'm giving special attention this year to Gunnevera. He has one of the most powerful moves I've seen in some time. I've watched replays of the delta jackpot, Saratoga special, and the fountain of youth. They were all derby winning moves in my opinion. The holy bull was first off the layoff, and he was checked sharply, yet still finished well. The Floida derby was a throw out for me. It was a heavily speed favoring track, coupled withe the fact he didn't need the race for points makes it all that more impressive. In addition, as of the Florida derby, post positions 9 though 12 in dirt route races had only 3 winners out of 122 starters. It was impossible to win from out there. Couple that with the fact that he still was able to come home the final 3/8ths in 36 and change, the final 1/8th in 12 and change, and the final 5 furlongs in a little over 58 seconds makes him a serious win candidate. No RAN or conduit, but he does have buck passer X. As long as he can navigate some traffic, I believe he will win the derby. Look forward to your checklist, and best of luck as always.


Jules

Robert Fischer
04-25-2017, 07:53 PM
I think the problem is that you've already picked your key horse and are looking for negatives of other horses in order to fit your picks. When it comes to the derby you can't fall in love with your pick. I watched both of his works and both were excellent. I also have clockers I speak to and they gave rave reviews. I've made the mistake you made many times in the past and have paid for it when I fell in love with a horse. He is actually not my pick to win, but I cannot say anything he has done wrong either. He smoked Irap who won the bluegrass and conquest who gave classic empire, the eventual chalk for the derby, all he could handle. I feel like you're looking for negatives because you've already made your selection based on previous posts. My point is, pick your winner, pick your horse, but don't back into it and find negatives on other horses when he has done nothing but win convincingly and train well, and in great times. If this is actually one of the horses you're concerned about, throw him in some exotics on top and hope for the best, while playing your selection more heavily.

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."
- John Kenneth Galbraith

CONFIRMATION BIAS, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias,[Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. -wiki

reckless
04-26-2017, 02:49 PM
Looks like Hence is a sure play for top 3 positions in the Kentucky Derby especially with Geroux on board. Seems Hence will be an underlay at 8-1 though. Smart money will be on tote.

Not questioning what you're saying but if Hence is at 7-1, 8-1... doesn't that mean that one of the top 3 -- Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry -- will also be at 8-1 or greater?

While it will be very easy for me to throw out Hence at 8-1 or less as an underlay, if one of the Top 3 is greater than 10-1 or so, then I might have to throw that one out too, as being 'dead' on the board. No?

boys at tosconova
05-03-2017, 07:13 PM
hence drew well.

he might utilize some of his natural speed so that he's not that far back. and if he improves and the sunny delight derby wasn't just a pace meltdown win, he could be in really nice shape