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AirNate012
04-12-2017, 05:09 PM
AR Derby Field is set...

1. Rockin Rudy - Mario Guttierez/Doug O'Neill - 12/1
2. Classic Empire - Julian Leparoux/Mark Casse - 8/5
3. Silver Dust - Corey Lanerie/Randy Morse - 20/1
4. Petrov - Ricardo Santana Jr./Ron Moquett - 12/1
5. Grandpa's Dream - Alex Canchari/Chris Hartman - 30/1
6. Lookin at Lee - Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen - 15/1
7. Sonneteer - Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux - 15/1
8. Rowdy the Warrior - Luis Quinonez/Donnie Von Hemel - 30/1
9. Untrapped - Mike Smith/Steve Asmussen - 6/1
10. One Dreamy Dude - Geovanni Franco/Jack Van Berg - 50/1
11. Conquest Mo Money - Jorge Carreno/Miguel Hernandez - 15/1
12. Malagacy - Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher - 2/1

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 05:57 PM
Interested to see what Conquest mo money does to help get a read on Hence.

Robert Fischer
04-12-2017, 06:15 PM
Malagacy has a slim-to-moderate chance to win outright.
Aside from that chance, Lookin at Lee looks to get a dream-trip, with the likely pace collapse. Silver Dust is attractive in the bottom of vertical exotics, for the same reason.

boys at tosconova
04-12-2017, 06:42 PM
1. Rockin Rudy - Mario Guttierez/Doug O'Neill - 12/1

don't know

2. Classic Empire - Julian Leparoux/Mark Casse - 8/5

should win if he runs his race

11. Conquest Mo Money - Jorge Carreno/Miguel Hernandez - 15/1

15-1 ML seems very high for a horse that raced wide near the front in fast fractions, finishing 2nd.

12. Malagacy - Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher - 2/-1

looks like a potentially tough spot at low odds


based on last race they're indistinguishable from one another

3. Silver Dust - Corey Lanerie/Randy Morse - 20/1
4. Petrov - Ricardo Santana Jr./Ron Moquett - 12/1
6. Lookin at Lee - Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen - 15/1
7. Sonneteer - Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux - 15/1
9. Untrapped - Mike Smith/Steve Asmussen - 6/1

toss

5. Grandpa's Dream - Alex Canchari/Chris Hartman - 30/1
8. Rowdy the Warrior - Luis Quinonez/Donnie Von Hemel - 30/1
10. One Dreamy Dude - Geovanni Franco/Jack Van Berg - 50/1

Psychotic Parakeet
04-12-2017, 07:15 PM
I see this race narrowed down to #1 Rockin Ruby and #12 Malagacy.

Rockin Ruby is the speed of the race, draws the inside, and it could be another O'Neill starter to stun yet another Derby prep race with a less-than-ideal horse. At 12/1, he is very tempting. Malagacy is lucky that the race lacks any real early speed types to the inside of him, so he will be able to get into an ideal position without much of a hassle. If Rockin Ruby fails to fire in the stretch, then Malagacy is the only one I can see winning it. Everyone else will be doing too little, too late. Classic Empire and Lookin at Lee for the show and super spots.

pele polo
04-12-2017, 07:49 PM
Classic Empire
Silver Dust
Conquest Mo Money
Lookin at Lee

Super

2nd strongest prep behind Blue Grass and ahead of FL Derby

Robert Fischer
04-12-2017, 08:40 PM
Have a 'gut feeling' that distance, Derby points, and the mix of speed and horses capable of moving for the lead far-turn/top-stretch will create a harder pace than projected.
Could be wrong.

Nitro
04-12-2017, 09:44 PM
Interested to see what Conquest mo money does to help get a read on Hence.

Why wait for that? When there's a potential indicator right now!

You might want to consider that Irap ran 4th well behind Conquest Mo Money and Hence in the Sunland Derby and came back on a short rest to Win the Blue Grass at Keeneland on Sat.

Unfortunately Conquest Mo gets another bad post, but with a better ride you never know.

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 10:01 PM
Why wait for that? When there's a potential indicator right now!

You might want to consider that Irap ran 4th well behind Conquest Mo Money and Hence in the Sunland Derby and came back on a short rest to Win the Blue Grass at Keeneland on Sat.

Unfortunately Conquest Mo gets another bad post, but with a better ride you never know.

Its not that crazy what Irap did last week. He should not of been 31-1. When he don't have blinkers on hes a batter runner. Irap ran a good race vs Mastery without the blinkers last year and considering the beast Mastery is finishing 2nd 5 lengths or so back isnt that bad. A good showing by Conquest Mo Money will only make me like Hence that much more.

f2tornado
04-13-2017, 12:11 AM
Classic Empire/Petrov exacta box. Those are the only two that have par pace figures unless something steps up.

Mulerider
04-13-2017, 01:02 PM
I see that Sonneteer is only 15/1 based on his Rebel performance, which apparently surprised everybody. But it looks like Richard Eramia has been replaced by Kent Desormeaux. There may a logical reason for the switch, but I think maybe the old, "if it ain't broke don't fix it" might apply here.

Andrick
04-13-2017, 03:53 PM
The three 15/1 shots look interesting to me with maybe holding off til the last minute on playing some exactas with Classic Empire over those three if that one can keep control of himself as they head to the gate.

boys at tosconova
04-13-2017, 08:52 PM
Classic Empire/Petrov exacta box. Those are the only two that have par pace figures unless something steps up.

i expected to see a better petrov in the rebel than what we got. i'm inclined to believe that's more or less the horse rather than the one over 8L better than the 3rd place finisher in the SW. even though that race went in 141. there were a few no chance horses and silver/lee were off a long layoff in that race.

he's harder to group w/ these horses because of it, but i can't think as highly of him because of the rebel and his evenness with 4 other horses and no excuse to much better there.

one note: santana is off lee and on petrov. that move doesn't bode well for lee imo. especially since lee looked like he closed the gap some in the rebel.

petrov is going to get a lot of handicapping mileage for the SW race. i'm not sure it's justified based on competition and his last race

tanner12oz
04-13-2017, 10:04 PM
Classic empire puts on a show and crushes with petrov clunking away for a board hit

Murph
04-13-2017, 10:11 PM
I am leaning to a wager on Petrov but I'm limiting to a single question for this race. Classic Empire, will he run or is he done?

He refused to blow last month, hoof abcess, back to the baby farms and into some pretty dark w/o form. Too much baggage and I am not going to carry the load for him this year. Win or lose here we'll never get a clear picture of his issues from the connections before the derby. I'll need to decide, based on what happens between now and then with CE >:rip:

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 10:14 PM
Hypothetical:

If Classic Empire wins by a wide visually impressive margin and runs a 100 plus beyer with a fast time is he the derby favorite? - Really wouldnt that be something if after all the craziness around him if he comes full circle and ends up being the derby favorite like he was in november...

Andrick
04-13-2017, 10:28 PM
Hypothetical:

If Classic Empire wins by a wide visually impressive margin and runs a 100 plus beyer with a fast time is he the derby favorite? - Really wouldnt that be something if after all the craziness around him if he comes full circle and ends up being the derby favorite like he was in november...

If he does what you describe then I think it's a given he goes off as the Derby favourite in the wagering and probably pretty clearly so.

Murph
04-13-2017, 10:57 PM
I am leaning to a wager on Petrov but I'm limiting to a single question for this race. Classic Empire, will he run or is he done?

He refused to blow last month, hoof abcess, back to the baby farms and into some pretty dark w/o form. Too much baggage and I am not going to carry the load for him this year. Win or lose here we'll never get a clear picture of his issues from the connections before the derby. I'll need to decide, based on what happens between now and then with CE >:rip:

A snapshot of Classic Empire on the track this morning. He looks regal.
https://twitter.com/RobertYates1982/status/852496746928365568

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 02:25 AM
A snapshot of Classic Empire on the track this morning. He looks regal.
https://twitter.com/RobertYates1982/status/852496746928365568

it looks like his feet hurt to me.

PhantomOnTour
04-14-2017, 02:38 AM
Petrov should offer value but doubt he's good enough to win it...can be used underneath if the odds hold near his morning line

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 04:29 AM
malagacy going to have to run really well to win here.

several horses inside of him should be gunning and he wont get the perfect trip he's had in his last 2 races. he might be able to tuck nicely mid pack though.

conquest will be leaving inside of him. and possibly untrapped will show early foot with blinkers. grandpa's dream, petrov, classic emp might show some early foot for positioning as well. you know the 1 will be ridden hard early as well.....this looks like trouble imo from post 12

throw in the fact that the added distance might be a problem and it's easy to see this horse not finishing 1st/2nd

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 05:10 AM
so silver dust is going to wear the blinks.....yippeee.

is he going to show speed with those blinks?....or is it a last ditch effort to unlock the mystery of said silver horse. imo he's still living off his maiden race beating senior investment and dilettante @ one mile in 136 change. it was good race though, and you could say "he's getting better"

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 05:44 AM
rockin ruby

Rockin Rudy began his career with a front-running 11 ½-length victory at 5 ½ furlongs Aug. 5 at Del Mar for trainer John Brocklebank. After debuting for an $80,000 claiming price, Rockin Rudy was purchased privately late last year by Reddam

“He's a horse that won very impressively and there was word on the street he was for sale, so we looked into him and then didn't get a deal done,” O'Neill said. “Then as it turned out, he was turned out for a little body soreness and immaturity stuff.”

Brocklebank, O'Neill said, called later in the year and was ready to part with the more mature gray colt.


just how seriously are we to take this horse? are we that hard up for horses in this race that anything besides horses from the rebel become appealing? i'll give him some kudos as he did almost beat law abiding citizen who's a good horse last out and for not having a bad race yet, but to make it even more of a potential disaster he will take off the blinks for the first time.

seems really dicey and a hail mary pass. i think the irat win has gone to their head and they can accomplish anything..lol.

don't know when he'll start to retreat or by how many lengths he'll lose, but it could be really ugly. that or most of these horses in here stink and he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....go iowa breds!!!!..lol

Murph
04-14-2017, 08:39 AM
it looks like his feet hurt to me.
LOL :lol: We'll see soon enough.

f2tornado
04-14-2017, 09:31 AM
rockin ruby...
don't know when he'll start to retreat or by how many lengths he'll lose, but it could be really ugly. that or most of these horses in here stink and he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....go iowa breds!!!!..lol

Odd placement. Rockin has fraction's in turf sprints that resemble Breeders Cup Turf sprint runners. What the hell is he doing here? If he wants the lead he probably owns it through 6F.

Mulerider
04-14-2017, 02:27 PM
Who's scared of public humiliation? Just finished capping the race. My top 5 rankings, in order of projected finish:

:12: Malagacy
:2: Classic Empire
:11: Conquest Mo Money
:4: Petrov
:9: Untrapped (tied with Petrov)

Oddly enough, that mirrors Bris Prime Power except that Bris reversed the top 2.

For what it's worth, I ranked :7: Sonneteer 6th behind Petrov and Untrapped. Bris ranks the horse 10th, tied with Silver Dust.

At my peril, I am probably going to toss CE.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

Mule

jimmyb
04-14-2017, 08:09 PM
Classic Empire has been training lights out.

PowerUpPaynter
04-14-2017, 08:15 PM
Classic Empire has been training lights out.

if there was a year a horse can pull the shit Classic Empire did and still win the derby its this year.

boys at tosconova
04-14-2017, 10:24 PM
conquest mo money?

why not?

race times look equally as good if not better than anyone outside of classic emp.

while the comp level in this race is better than the sunland, it doesn't look particularly strong imo. nice to see the horse stalk wide in fast times and still have horse. so he doesn't look like a need the lead type

15-1 seems like pipe dream, but an itm finish seems well within his grasp in this motley crue field

boys at tosconova
04-15-2017, 04:12 AM
once you get by class emp and mal the options are really a mess.

lets say class emp doesn't win, and mal has a really tough trip and doesn't hit the board. there's really no one horse in this race that you depend on to be there itm. i see people trying to sort them out or stating reasons why they like one over another, but none of it holds much water.

wouldn't be surprised to see the 3469 all in the 6-1/8-1 range

i'm expecting the 11 to be 3rd choice 4-1/9-2

the 7 will proly be 10-1 15-1 and i don't know what to expect from the 1 in terms of odds

1. Rockin Rudy - Mario Guttierez/Doug O'Neill - 12/1
3. Silver Dust - Corey Lanerie/Randy Morse - 20/1
4. Petrov - Ricardo Santana Jr./Ron Moquett - 12/1
6. Lookin at Lee - Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen - 15/1
7. Sonneteer - Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux - 15/1
9. Untrapped - Mike Smith/Steve Asmussen - 6/1
11. Conquest Mo Money - Jorge Carreno/Miguel Hernandez - 15/1

even grandpa's dream has a small figure if he improves. 144 change isn't that far behind

2/11/134679
2/134679/11

PICSIX
04-15-2017, 08:01 AM
Lookin At Lee to pull off the upset.:coffee:

rastajenk
04-15-2017, 09:16 AM
I'd like to see that happen. I need a Derby hunch-play.

Mulerider
04-15-2017, 10:02 AM
I don't use this as an angle, having usually failed to correctly time stock market peaks, but there are only three horses in the race that have shown improving (Bris) speed ratings in each of their last three races: Silver Dust (improved in each of his last four), Sonneteer, and Conquest Mo Money.

I'm tempted to place small win bets on three of the 15/1 shots and call it good.

MonmouthParkJoe
04-15-2017, 10:44 AM
I will be using a couple in this race for the pick 5, silver dust is one of them.

Secondbest
04-15-2017, 11:20 AM
I don't use this as an angle, having usually failed to correctly time stock market peaks, but there are only three horses in the race that have shown improving (Bris) speed ratings in each of their last three races: Silver Dust (improved in each of his last four), Sonneteer, and Conquest Mo Money.

I'm tempted to place small win bets on three of the 15/1 shots and call it good.

Not a bad idea. Maybe you can catch a price if the two chalks run out

f2tornado
04-15-2017, 12:03 PM
Lookin At Lee to pull off the upset.:coffee:

Suddenbreakingnews Junior? He probably will pass most of the field in the lane and with a decent ride can hit the board but to win will need the leaders to fold like a cheap tent. J/T angle hitting the board 17 of 29 last two weeks.

BCOURTNEY
04-15-2017, 01:14 PM
:12: MALAGACY
:2: CLASSIC EMPIRE
----
:3: SILVER DUST
:9: UNTRAPPED
----
:6: LOOKIN AT LEE

señorclipclop
04-15-2017, 01:24 PM
$6 Budget Bet:

$.30 SF :2:/:3::9:/:3::9:/:1::4::6::11::12: ($3.00)
$.20 SF :2:/:3::9:/:1::4::6::11::12:/:3::9: ($2.00)
$.10 SF :2:/:1::4::6::11::12:/:3::9:/:3::9: ($1.00)

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2017, 03:19 PM
My $.02:

:2: 7/5
:4: 7/2

Looks like Petrov is the value play here.

Robert Fischer
04-15-2017, 05:27 PM
Pace collapse 3678/3678/3678/2,4,9,12 =$9.60
Happy pace =9,12/9,12/2/34678,11=$1.20
And=9,12/9,12/34678,11/2=$1.20

Nitro
04-15-2017, 06:55 PM
OAKLAWN PARK - LIVE

R#11 - W/ @ 4mins to post for selections

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2153384#post2153384

Tom
04-15-2017, 07:15 PM
TFUS says fast pace, I agree.

:2:Classic Empire - draw line through the BC rac and his figures are inferior. His patter suggest he will run his best early and shorter.

:4:Petrov, two back is a major threat, but will he rebound?

:12:Malagacy, very good race, but all alone, hard to gage where he will go from there. At low odds, not worth it

:3:Silver Dust tails off late but he did pair up and cold move ahead today

:9:Untrapped, double interesting - new pace top and a pair up.
Could be moving ahead today

:11:Conquest Mo - too slow and tails off late

:6:Lookin at Lee - paired up and had the right pattern of figs for a fast pace.

I'm going with
:6: 12-1
:9: 5-1
:3: 20-1

These are Quirn pace and speed figs derived from CJ's TF figures

Secondbest
04-15-2017, 07:38 PM
TFUS says fast pace, I agree.

:2:Classic Empire - draw line through the BC rac and his figures are inferior. His patter suggest he will run his best early and shorter.

:4:Petrov, two back is a major threat, but will he rebound?

:12:Malagacy, very good race, but all alone, hard to gage where he will go from there. At low odds, not worth it

:3:Silver Dust tails off late but he did pair up and cold move ahead today

:9:Untrapped, double interesting - new pace top and a pair up.
Could be moving ahead today

:11:Conquest Mo - too slow and tails off late

:6:Lookin at Lee - paired up and had the right pattern of figs for a fast pace.

I'm going with
:6: 12-1
:9: 5-1
:3: 20-1

These are Quirn pace and speed figs derived from CJ's TF figures

Are those picks from tfus run through an old sartin program? The reason I asked is I rem
Rememberedd you posted how you use the adjusted tfus with sartin .
I sometimes use the adjusted pace figs with pizzola.

rsetup
04-15-2017, 07:41 PM
:2:, Classic Empire: I don't know if he gets 9F. Field is not very good.

:9:, Untrapped: bid too soon in Rebel. Smith up is huge but don't get why blinkers are going on. This horse needs to run later not sooner.

:12:, Malagacy: handled the :4: and :9: (and others) in the Rebel, running outside and making first move.

:7:, Sonneteer: had a dream inside run in the lane but the race didn't really come back. 9F should suit him and he's the best late option. Kent up isn't a bad thing either.

Tom
04-15-2017, 07:42 PM
Are those picks from tfus run through an old sartin program?


No, I convert the TF figes to Quirin style figs.
For turf races, I do run the TF adjusted times through an Excel update of the old Phase III programs - only because they only used fifths. same idea, AP, EP, etc....works very well for turf.

parlay
04-15-2017, 07:49 PM
i will try the :3:. Breeding and racing indicate potential for improvment

Secondbest
04-15-2017, 08:12 PM
No, I convert the TF figes to Quirin style figs.
For turf races, I do run the TF adjusted times through an Excel update of the old Phase III programs - only because they only used fifths. same idea, AP, EP, etc....works very well for turf.

OK. Thanks

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2017, 08:19 PM
14-1 on Petrov currently...wow...

Mulerider
04-15-2017, 08:22 PM
14-1 on Petrov currently...wow...

I'm on him. Also on Conquest, Sonneteer and Silver Dust with small win bets. Good luck.

ctownraces@bp
04-15-2017, 08:23 PM
Going to play the #3 Silver Dust and the #7 Sonneteer to win and wheel them 1st and 2nd with #6,#9, and #12

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2017, 08:24 PM
My $.02:

:2: 7/5
:4: 7/2

Looks like Petrov is the value play here.Looks like I might get to bet both of these

picojim
04-15-2017, 08:25 PM
3-9
3-12

exactas

win on 3 Silver Dust

Robert Fischer
04-15-2017, 08:25 PM
Pace collapse 3678/3678/3678/2,4,9,12 =$9.60
Happy pace =9,12/9,12/2/34678,11=$1.20
And=9,12/9,12/34678,11/2=$1.20

Also rowdy warrior
6, 9, 12 / 8 / 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12 / 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12
6, 9, 12 / 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12 /8/ 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12
6, 9, 12 / 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12 / 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12/8 $18

ribjig
04-15-2017, 08:25 PM
same name as lunar crater... :coffee:

Secondbest
04-15-2017, 08:26 PM
Going with Silver Dust. Did not break sharp and had a little trouble last out .At 12-1 taking a shot. Win and up and back with the 2 favorites

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2017, 08:29 PM
My $.02:

:2: 7/5
:4: 7/2

Looks like Petrov is the value play here.I bet both

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2017, 08:32 PM
Whoopie do....9/5...:lol:

wreckless
04-15-2017, 08:37 PM
does sonneteer get into the derby with that 4th place finish?

Secondbest
04-15-2017, 08:37 PM
Silver Dust stuck on the rail came out not much of a kick.If looking at Lee could run straight he might've been been a lot closer

señorclipclop
04-15-2017, 08:40 PM
Horrific trip for Classic Empire and he still gets it done. Best of the crop all along.

letswastemoney
04-15-2017, 08:40 PM
I'm convinced the Sunland Derby was a strong race. Irap and Conquest Mo Money (if he supplements) are major players in the Derby.

Robert Fischer
04-15-2017, 08:44 PM
Good result for the Derby wagering.

Nitro
04-15-2017, 08:55 PM
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Interested to see what Conquest mo money does to help get a read on Hence.
Why wait for that? When there's a potential indicator right now!

You might want to consider that Irap ran 4th well behind Conquest Mo Money and Hence in the Sunland Derby and came back on a short rest to Win the Blue Grass at Keeneland on Sat.

Unfortunately Conquest Mo gets another bad post, but with a better ride you never know.
I'm convinced the Sunland Derby was a strong race. Irap and Conquest Mo Money (if he supplements) are major players in the Derby.


Exactly what I mentioned previously!
A better post and it might have won!

Mulerider
04-15-2017, 09:25 PM
Silver Dust stuck on the rail came out not much of a kick.If looking at Lee could run straight he might've been been a lot closer

Malagacy's legs looked like rubber the last eighth.

Strong race from Conquest Mo Money.

señorclipclop
04-15-2017, 09:32 PM
:3:,:9:,:12: should be contenders in the Pat Day Mile.

Robert Fischer
04-15-2017, 09:50 PM
Malagacy's legs looked like rubber the last eighth.

Strong race from Conquest Mo Money.

Can't tell whether or not Conquest Mo Money clipped heals with Malagacy (late, when Malagacy switched back to left lead).
Both had tough trips. Have to give Mo credit for a solid finish.

f2tornado
04-15-2017, 09:50 PM
Classic Empire ran a final 3/8th in approximately 37 3/5. He is a RAN sire line with fast closing fractions in a big 9F prep which makes him very dangerous the first Saturday in May. Add bonus points for Buckpasser-x via a mare paired with Mr. P.

wreckless
04-15-2017, 10:10 PM
I'm assuming Sonneteer and Untrapped both wont make the Derby?

If so, do either of them have a chance of running at the Preakness or Belmont?

PowerUpPaynter
04-15-2017, 10:27 PM
Classic Empire ran a final 3/8th in approximately 37 3/5. He is a RAN sire line with fast closing fractions in a big 9F prep which makes him very dangerous the first Saturday in May. Add bonus points for Buckpasser-x via a mare paired with Mr. P.

Very much the same as Hence. And you get Hence at 20-1

f2tornado
04-15-2017, 10:27 PM
I'm assuming Sonneteer and Untrapped both wont make the Derby?

If so, do either of them have a chance of running at the Preakness or Belmont?

Untrapped just needs one defection which usually happens. Sonneteer is third in line behind Lookin at Lee.

f2tornado
04-15-2017, 10:30 PM
Very much the same as Hence. And you get Hence at 20-1

I will have Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, and Hence on top of my tickets in May. Fully expecting chalk on top again this year.

PowerUpPaynter
04-15-2017, 10:37 PM
I will have Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, and Hence on top of my tickets in May. Fully expecting chalk on top again this year.

Yeah but good value may finish under. Don't sleep on Patch.

rsetup
04-15-2017, 10:41 PM
Horrific trip for Classic Empire and he still gets it done. Best of the crop all along.

Horrific? Perfect is more like it. 11 and then 12 do all the early running. Smith has the 9 wide and moves prematurely to join them. (Puzzling ride, to say the least.) CE won because he couldn't go with the 12 and then the 9 when they moved. The three up front softened each other up and he cruised by on the wrong lead.

That's a funky ass track. Just about any other track and that race collapses completely and the 7 wins. If the 7 gets in, he's going to be real tough in the Derby.

rastajenk
04-15-2017, 10:50 PM
Untrapped just needs one defection which usually happens. Sonneteer is third in line behind Lookin at Lee.What's the buzz on the foreign runners? Are two in for sure, or are they waffling?

If Asmussen has a choice fall to him to enter Untrapped or Lookin at Lee, who would he go with? :p

rsetup
04-15-2017, 11:42 PM
The three up front softened each other up and he cruised by on the wrong lead.



Not correct. He was righty until a few strides before the wire.

Fager Fan
04-16-2017, 12:13 AM
Horrific? Perfect is more like it. 11 and then 12 do all the early running. Smith has the 9 wide and moves prematurely to join them. (Puzzling ride, to say the least.) CE won because he couldn't go with the 12 and then the 9 when they moved. The three up front softened each other up and he cruised by on the wrong lead.

That's a funky ass track. Just about any other track and that race collapses completely and the 7 wins. If the 7 gets in, he's going to be real tough in the Derby.

We weren't watching the same race. Being bottled up the whole way until the stretch was hardly a perfect trip. And Classic Empire is the only horse in this field who can or will finish in the top 3 of the Derby.

chadk66
04-16-2017, 10:51 AM
We weren't watching the same race. Being bottled up the whole way until the stretch was hardly a perfect trip. And Classic Empire is the only horse in this field who can or will finish in the top 3 of the Derby.yea he wasn't watching the same race. Classic Empire had a horrible trip. Was pulling hard and jock had to fight him all the way down the backside. With even a decent trip he was five lengths the best.

Mulerider
04-16-2017, 12:46 PM
94 BSF for Classic Empire.

theotherside
04-16-2017, 02:42 PM
Not to take anything away from this horse but Oaklawn yesterday was death to any frontrunner,Closers enjoyed an extreme advantage.Strong 3rd fractions ruled just about every race.

boys at tosconova
04-16-2017, 03:04 PM
yea he wasn't watching the same race. Classic Empire had a horrible trip. Was pulling hard and jock had to fight him all the way down the backside. With even a decent trip he was five lengths the best.

i wouldn't say he a horrible trip. yes he was in tight in between horses
but if you look at leparoux's wrists you can see he was relaxed. he wasn't checked nor was he running over horses

and there's no way you can determine that he would have won by 5L had he not been in the position that he was. those horses that surrounded him pretty much cleared out quickly @ the 3/4's and he had clear sailing well before the stretch.

stats33
04-17-2017, 12:05 AM
This is just not true at all about OP being favoring late runners yesterday. Of the 10 races prior to the Derby exactly 2 were won by a horse farther back than 4th. If you were in the top 4 in a race after a 1/2 in 6f races or 3/4 in route races, you had a great shot to be in the exacta.

1st race the 1-2 finishers were 2nd/3rd after 1/2
2nd race the 1-2 finishers were 8th/4th after 3/4
3rd race the 1-2 finishers were 2nd/3rd after 3/4
4th race the 1-2 finishers were 4th/1st after 1/2
5th race the 1-2 finishers were 4th/1st after 3/4
6th race the 1-2 finishers were 1st/3rd after 3/4
7th race the 1-2 finishers were 4th/8th after 1/2
8th race the 1-2 finishers were 1st/2nd after 3/4
9th race the 1-2 finishers were 4th/5th after 3/4
10th race the 1-2 finishers were 7th/6th after 3/4

theotherside
04-17-2017, 12:23 AM
One horse went wire to wire yesterday and in order to win yesterday you had to have a powerful 3rd fraction or you were not going to win.Late energy ruled the day, frontrunners were at a disadvantage.

stats33
04-17-2017, 12:47 AM
One horse went wire to wire yesterday and in order to win yesterday you had to have a powerful 3rd fraction or you were not going to win.Late energy ruled the day, frontrunners were at a disadvantage.15 of the 20 horses in the exacta in the 1st 10 races were sitting 1-2-3-4 in their races. Only 5 horses from 5th on back made it into the exacta in those same 10 races.

We'll clearly agree to disagree on your premise.

Fager Fan
04-17-2017, 12:47 AM
All this is meaningless without knowing the prospects of the horses. Were the front runners favored or long shots? Same for the mid pack horses and closers.

stats33
04-17-2017, 12:57 AM
All this is meaningless without knowing the prospects of the horses. Were the front runners favored or long shots? Same for the mid pack horses and closers.

There was no pronounced bias against front runners at OP yesterday. It's my home track, I handicap every race there (all 525 of them this year) and I was at the track yesterday. As per usual at Oaklawn, if you're in the 1st flight you have a better chance to win. It's been like that for years on end and yesterday was no different.

theotherside
04-17-2017, 12:57 AM
When you see the first few races and realize the track is not carrying speed,you can have one hell of a day,seeing that is everything.

theotherside
04-17-2017, 01:01 AM
This is not positional, it was the energy requirement of the track yesterday,which was in order to win you needed a big third fraction.

stats33
04-17-2017, 01:10 AM
When you see the first few races and realize the track is not carrying speed,you can have one hell of a day,seeing that is everything.

1st race 21/1 shot led and faded as the 2 favs running 2nd/3rd behind the leader end up finishing 1-2.
2nd race 18/1 and 11/1 were leading at 2nd call and faded
3rd race 25/1 runs 2nd at every call
4th race 9/1 leads every call but last one and finishes 2nd
5th race 7/1 leads thru 3 calls and settles for 2bd
6th race 9/1 is 2nd or leads at every call and wins. 45/1 is 3rd or 2nd at every call and runs 2nd
7th race 1/2 shot was 2 back at half in 4th and wins by 4. Early leaders run 3rd at 6/1 and 4th at 59/1
8th race the 2 favs ran 1st/2nd all the way around the track

There was no bias against early speed.

theotherside
04-17-2017, 01:18 AM
Ok