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PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 10:22 AM
Let start start tossing some horses. Horses you will not include on any tickets.

For me the easiest two are Fast And Accurate and Thunder Snow. At this point these UAE horses have to finish in the top 4 once before I consider ever using them.

Mc990
04-12-2017, 11:41 AM
Let start start tossing some horses. Horses you will not include on any tickets.

For me the easiest two are Fast And Accurate and Thunder Snow. At this point these UAE horses have to finish in the top 4 once before I consider ever using them.

I'd be careful tossing thunder snow. I actually think he's one of the most likely horses to run well. He's a tad slow but with 6 weeks and only 2 preps he should be sitting on go. solid 2 year old numbers and foundation as well

I really believe it's a fallacy that Dubai horses are auto tosses... If you compared the # of Dubai horses that ran "their race" in the derby vs u.s. horses, you'd see the numbers are comparable. The fact that there have been some really slow horses with ugly form coming out of the UAE derby should have no bearing on this year

IWC and Always Dreaming are tosses IMO. They both seem to be sitting on a regression. I don't see either repeating their last which makes them drastic underlays

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 12:23 PM
I'd be careful tossing thunder snow. I actually think he's one of the most likely horses to run well. He's a tad slow but with 6 weeks and only 2 preps he should be sitting on go. solid 2 year old numbers and foundation as well

I really believe it's a fallacy that Dubai horses are auto tosses... If you compared the # of Dubai horses that ran "their race" in the derby vs u.s. horses, you'd see the numbers are comparable. The fact that there have been some really slow horses with ugly form coming out of the UAE derby should have no bearing on this year

IWC and Always Dreaming are tosses IMO. They both seem to be sitting on a regression. I don't see either repeating their last which makes them drastic underlays

The problem I see with these UAE horses is where do you get info on them? How do you handicap them other than saying well all the rest of them have been non factors.... I just dont see how he is better than Mubtaahij and I think he finished 6th or something.

How do you handicap these horses I guess is my question? - Where do you get the data? Final fractions, they time differently as a whole, unusual foreign horses in the pedigree, No races vs other horses in the derby... etc...

Plus I though I heard Epicharis isnt coming over because his connections know he cant compete in that field and Thunder Snow was all out to nose him in the UAE derby.

Last Iv heard he may not even come over for the derby, which I hope he dont, so the lack of info on him will become a mute point.

Hoops McCann
04-12-2017, 01:14 PM
excerpt from a Paulick report article:

Epicharis' connections appear to be targeting the Preakness and/or the Belmont Stakes instead of the Kentucky Derby, which may open up the invitation to Mont Saint Legame or even Adirato. Sports Hochi, a Japanese sports newspaper, reported that Epicharis will not contest the Kentucky Derby “by reason of quarantine.” Naoya Yoshida also announced on Twitter that Epicharis would skip the Kentucky Derby.

In addition, kentuckyderby.com reported that Epicharis' “connections had initially sounded more inclined to pursue the Belmont.”

Psychotic Parakeet
04-12-2017, 01:36 PM
Here are mine so far:

Battalion Runner
J Boys Echo
Gunnevera
Fast and Accurate
Tapwrit
Irish War Cry
McCraken
Girvin
Royal Mo
Practical Joke

Pending the outcome of the Arkansas Derby, Classic Empire and Untrapped might join this list too.

Robert Fischer
04-12-2017, 03:30 PM
Irap
McCracken
State of Honor
Cloud Computing

MNslappy
04-12-2017, 04:03 PM
Irap
McCracken
State of Honor
Cloud Computing


Irap scares me. A horse I would lean toward tossing if not for the Timeform # he earned in the Bluegrass. Right there with the top runners in the field.

boys at tosconova
04-12-2017, 04:08 PM
I really believe it's a fallacy that Dubai horses are auto tosses... If you compared the # of Dubai horses that ran "their race" in the derby vs u.s. horses, you'd see the numbers are comparable. The fact that there have been some really slow horses with ugly form coming out of the UAE derby should have no bearing on this year


https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/51/2f/c3/512fc31b5bb4d9752d519a22b062fc94.gif

really. a fallacy?. in 16 years of running the uae derby the race winner has never finished in the money at the kentucky derby. the past few years each of them has gotten quite a buzz, and i'm sure this one will as well. should he elect to run.

http://i.imgur.com/JYAVWj7.gif

Dream_Police
04-12-2017, 04:17 PM
Concerning Thunder Snow,until they come over here earlier and spend some time on our tracks and run a race here they will never win the Derby. They ship here 2 or less weeks till derby thinking that is sufficient to acclimate them to the track and the weather(KY weather can be a guessing game) and go home with little to show for their trip. Maybe they should print up t-shirts that say "My horse ran in the Derby and all I got was this shirt"

My tosses
Irap
Gormley
Practical Joke
State of Honor
Cloud Computing
Tapwrit
Fast and Accurate
Battle Of Midway
Battalion Runner
Untrapped

I only listed those that had the points as of now to get in the derby.

Run Nicholas Run
04-12-2017, 04:47 PM
getting the X through the program 3 1 /2 weeks out are:

IRAP
IRISH WAR CRY
ALWAYS DREAMING
FAST AND ACCURATE
MCKRAKEN
BATTLE OF MIDWAY
PATCH
UNTRAPPED

Mc990
04-12-2017, 05:12 PM
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/51/2f/c3/512fc31b5bb4d9752d519a22b062fc94.gif

really. a fallacy?. in 16 years of running the uae derby the race winner has never finished in the money at the kentucky derby. the past few years each of them has gotten quite a buzz, and i'm sure this one will as well. should he elect to run.

http://i.imgur.com/JYAVWj7.gif

He's coming. I don't really care about buzz. I care about form and figures. Thunder snow looks better than any of them. Btw, lines of battle, Mubtaahij and Lani all ran their races when they shipped over. They just weren't good enough

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 06:01 PM
He's coming. I don't really care about buzz. I care about form and figures. Thunder snow looks better than any of them. Btw, lines of battle, Mubtaahij and Lani all ran their races when they shipped over. They just weren't good enough

Can you elaborate on form and figures. That's info I can't seem to find. I know he had a 93 Beyer. But as far as time, they time differently. What data do u have on him?

Mc990
04-12-2017, 06:09 PM
Can you elaborate on form and figures. That's info I can't seem to find. I know he had a 93 Beyer. But as far as time, they time differently. What data do u have on him?

As far as form goes... 2 preps is ideal. Been proven over the last 10 years. Solid foundation and progression from his 2 year old campaign... Really he's never regressed. Looks like an extremely healthy horse

Paired tops as a 3 year old on thoro-graph which typically portend a forward move, especially with 6 weeks rest.

arw629
04-13-2017, 12:41 AM
McCracken, state oh honor, fast and accurate

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 08:18 AM
lots of McCraken tossing, If Irish war Cry can bounce back why cant he?

jay68802
04-13-2017, 01:36 PM
My tosses:

Untraped
Fast and Accurate
State of Honor
Hence
Battle of Midway
Tapwrit

On the bubble:

Irap
Gormley

Mc990
04-13-2017, 01:48 PM
lots of McCraken tossing, If Irish war Cry can bounce back why cant he?

I'm not so sure he actually went backwards in his last... Tricky read to be sure

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 02:23 PM
I'm not so sure he actually went backwards in his last... Tricky read to be sure

That is tricky because its almost worse to stay the same then to tank and have a chance to bounce back... ask Moheyman from last year peaked early and kept running the same race. did hit 4th tho in the derby.

Andrick
04-13-2017, 03:45 PM
That is tricky because its almost worse to stay the same then to tank and have a chance to bounce back... ask Moheyman from last year peaked early and kept running the same race. did hit 4th tho in the derby.

Nah, it really isn't worse to have a horse come into the Derby after having ran similar races in it's last couple, Paynter. That's one of the better patterns going into the Derby actually as opposed to a horse who needs to "rebound" in the Derby off a regressive race. In fact, if you use thorograph, going into the Derby on a two race pair-pair pattern is one of the two or three strongest patterns. Maybe even the best. History shows that horses going in on a pair-pair pattern have about a 50% of either pairing up once again or running a new top in the Derby. Regardless of what figures you use, going into the Derby on a maintain or improve pattern without a regressive race through the prep season is always a plus.

Mc990
04-13-2017, 03:58 PM
Nah, it really isn't worse to have a horse come into the Derby after having ran similar races in it's last couple, Paynter. That's one of the better patterns going into the Derby actually as opposed to a horse who needs to "rebound" in the Derby off a regressive race. In fact, if you use thorograph, going into the Derby on a two race pair-pair pattern is one of the two or three strongest patterns. Maybe even the best. History shows that horses going in on a pair-pair pattern have about a 50% of either pairing up once again or running a new top in the Derby. Regardless of what figures you use, going into the Derby on a maintain or improve pattern without a regressive race through the prep season is always a plus.

Exactly. The narrative on McCracken seems to be that he regressed but I don't think that's the case on the sheets. I haven't seen his number but I wouldn't be surprised if he paired his Tampa race.

That's why I hate trusting how a race looks visually. We have so much quality data out there that it's crazy not to use it in this day and age.

If you liked McCracken as the favorite before last Saturday (which by the way was a joke) then you should love him coming out of that race

Andrick
04-13-2017, 04:13 PM
Exactly. The narrative on McCracken seems to be that he regressed but I don't think that's the case on the sheets. I haven't seen his number but I wouldn't be surprised if he paired his Tampa race.

That's why I hate trusting how a race looks visually. We have so much quality data out there that it's crazy not to use it in this day and age.

If you liked McCracken as the favorite before last Saturday (which by the way was a joke) then you should love him coming out of that race

Yeah, I'm just waiting to see his thorograph figure as well before making a judgement on if he regressed or not. His BSF certainly suggests he did with a 7 pt drop. But his BRIS only saw only a slight drop (basically paired) and his Timeform figure was basically the same both races. If his thorograph says he paired then I'll dismiss the BSF drop as the anomaly of the group.

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 05:35 PM
What if you think McCraken has never run a race that could win the Derby? If he starts out talented but 2nd tier(at least on my numbers), regressed off a 2nd tier race, missed training, then ran a 3rd tier race. I don't expect him to make the jump from 3rd tier to 1st tier. That's asking a lot out of any horse. He can bounceback and run a 2nd tier race but I think you need a great leap of faith to expect him to be better than that and win the Derby at what I believe will be a lukewarm price. I think he is worse than Mohaymen last year. Mohaymen ran at least 1 race that IMO looked like he had a shot in the derby. I can't say the same thing here. I can handle him beating me. It's 1 race. But this is the type of horse that has contender cancer in my mind!

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 05:36 PM
Yeah, I'm just waiting to see his thorograph figure as well before making a judgement on if he regressed or not. His BSF certainly suggests he did with a 7 pt drop. But his BRIS only saw only a slight drop (basically paired) and his Timeform figure was basically the same both races. If his thorograph says he paired then I'll dismiss the BSF drop as the anomaly of the group.

Like you I am waiting to see the final numbers after the races this weekend. The thing that irks me is most figure makers don't put them out til posts are drawn. And I like to look at a lot of different figures. I wish HDW would do this after this weekend. They never answer my damn emails though!:confused:

Mc990
04-13-2017, 05:48 PM
Yeah, I'm just waiting to see his thorograph figure as well before making a judgement on if he regressed or not. His BSF certainly suggests he did with a 7 pt drop. But his BRIS only saw only a slight drop (basically paired) and his Timeform figure was basically the same both races. If his thorograph says he paired then I'll dismiss the BSF drop as the anomaly of the group.

2. A pair of his Tampa race...

Andrick
04-13-2017, 05:56 PM
What if you think McCraken has never run a race that could win the Derby? If he starts out talented but 2nd tier(at least on my numbers), regressed off a 2nd tier race, missed training, then ran a 3rd tier race. I don't expect him to make the jump from 3rd tier to 1st tier. That's asking a lot out of any horse. He can bounceback and run a 2nd tier race but I think you need a great leap of faith to expect him to be better than that and win the Derby at what I believe will be a lukewarm price. I think he is worse than Mohaymen last year. Mohaymen ran at least 1 race that IMO looked like he had a shot in the derby. I can't say the same thing here. I can handle him beating me. It's 1 race. But this is the type of horse that has contender cancer in my mind!

If I did my own numbers and had him as regressing off a race that's questionable if he's fast enough in the first place then I'd be totally against playing him in the Derby, Cincy. Especially at the price he's going to go off as. You also raise some very valid points in regards to making a significant jump forward.

As of right now I'm not terribly anxious to bet McCraken in the Derby, but I can't throw him out as of yet. If he paired up on thorograph then I could see myself using him a little. If his last out goes down as an off race then I'll be against him.

Andrick
04-13-2017, 05:58 PM
2. A pair of his Tampa race...

Cool. Thanks for posting that.

CincyHorseplayer
04-13-2017, 09:26 PM
If I did my own numbers and had him as regressing off a race that's questionable if he's fast enough in the first place then I'd be totally against playing him in the Derby, Cincy. Especially at the price he's going to go off as. You also raise some very valid points in regards to making a significant jump forward.

As of right now I'm not terribly anxious to bet McCraken in the Derby, but I can't throw him out as of yet. If he paired up on thorograph then I could see myself using him a little. If his last out goes down as an off race then I'll be against him.

To the 2nd paragraph I'm not either. We're just chewing the horseplayer fat. Love it in April! All these conversations add to the decision making process not to mention the vacation like buildup which is so fun. He's a talented horse but I think too short to win this.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 09:58 PM
To the 2nd paragraph I'm not either. We're just chewing the horseplayer fat. Love it in April! All these conversations add to the decision making process not to mention the vacation like buildup which is so fun. He's a talented horse but I think too short to win this.

every year I benefit so much just from reading everyone picking everyones brain. always good stuff in this forum this time of year

Andrick
04-13-2017, 10:16 PM
Still time to change my mind, of course, but as of now I don't see myself having much interest in Gunnevera, Gormley, Irish War Cry, Royal Mo, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit, Patch, Battalion Runner, Fast and Accurate, Irap, and Cloud Computing.

Basically half the field so far.

I'm on the fence with horses like Always Dreaming, McCraken, Battle of Midway, State of Honor, Practical Joke, and Thunder Snow.

Hence and Girvin are about the only two that I feel some confidence that I'll be using in the Derby pending what happens this weekend.

PowerUpPaynter
04-15-2017, 11:44 AM
Fast and accurate fired a bullet this morning 6 in 59 and change