Comparing race conditions, little help

[olelucky]

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

[arw629]

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

What are the purses for the race? Often times they can be a lot different than the claiming prices

[olelucky]

22k for 20 claimer and 28k for 30 claimer

[sour grapes]

i view open claimers as a higher class,Nw of 2 claimer are generally horses that have won a maiden claimer and are looking for a pretty soft spot normally even dropping in price as once you clear the maiden race you have less value as you have lost that condition.

[olelucky]

Appreciate the input, my confusions comes with the age difference, this time of year with young 3 year olds, does it matter that much running against older in the restricted race for less money. I thought the 2 might kind of even each other out and the class of race would be similar.

[Murph]

Appreciate the input, my confusions comes with the age difference, this time of year with young 3 year olds, does it matter that much running against older in the restricted race for less money. I thought the 2 might kind of even each other out and the class of race would be similar.For class, speed and pace ratings, I compare 2YO to 2YO only all year and do not play 2YO races before July 4th. I compare 3YO to 3YO only until Labor Day.

After maiden and stakes races I don't often read the conditions like I used to unless there is an odd weight or winners condition being met. For the rest I rely on the equibase race ratings to be properly adjusted and use the class ratings accordingly. Pretty standard advice I have kept from the earliest days of my experience with handicapping. Good question btw.

[ultracapper]

A good tip is to always make a 3yo prove it against older before ever taking it seriously, regardless of the class conditions. 3yo first time against older are bankroll busters as a rule.

This time of the year, I'd give a little class advantage to the N2L for older.

[JohnGalt1]

Hey all,

I get a little stumped when comparing race conditions and which should be a better field.

Looking at races coming up at Keeneland there is a 20k Claiming N2L for 3+, how should that race compare to a 30K open Claiming for 3 year olds only. For instance if you had a 3 year old with only 1 win would the 20k restricted with older horses be a tougher spot than the 30k without restrictions but for only 3 year olds.

I make a class ability number as part of my handicapping, and I made a chart to compare classes to make my figuring easier.

In your example I rate the open $30 as 4 levels higher than $20k nw2L.

My chart uses 20% difference per class level with 2 points lower for nw2L, one point lower for nw3L, and 3 points lower for state bred races.

So if your $30k race was limited to state breds nw3L I would rate it as equal to the open $20k nw2L.

I only use purse values for allowance, stakes, and MSW races.

[olelucky]

So the 3 yr old only vs the 3+ has no significance to you

[Murph]

So the 3 yr old only vs the 3+ has no significance to you

Not until later in the year in September. If a 3yo ends up facing older horses before then, I discount his/her chances.

[olelucky]

what about you John, does the 3 vs the 3+ not matter in your rating system?

[plainolebill]

N2L claimers are for horses that don't have much of a future, in Socal they aren't even good enough to run in those N2L starters.

Three year olds are competitive if they haven't proven themselves members of the legion of horribles. The 3yo only race can have horses with multiple wins.

I don't have any rules about age groups, I like it when 3yos start running against the stale 4yos.

[chadk66]

as a trainer I lived by this rule. never run a three year old against older horses unless you have no choice and it's very late in the year. this time of the year a three year old will get destroyed by older horses unless he's twice the best horse in the race.

[Murph]

as a trainer I lived by this rule. never run a three year old against older horses unless you have no choice and it's very late in the year. this time of the year a three year old will get destroyed by older horses unless he's twice the best horse in the race.
I have long applied your advice to my handicapping.

[JohnGalt1]

what about you John, does the 3 vs the 3+ not matter in your rating system?

No, not when I make my ratings.

I do realize that the Kentucky Derby should not be rated as highly as the BC Classic, since the former is limited to 3 year olds. But I rate them as equal Grade 1 races.

My ratings, adapted from Scott's Performance Class Ratings, factor not only class, but field size, and how they ran at the finish against their competition.

So while the class adjustment is important, keeping it simple does not greatly effect my ratings.

[Murph]

3YO Confederate Rags will face older horses in this starter allowance race today. He last raced and won Mar 24 in a 12.5k maiden claimer. His class rating is 24 points below today's race rating.

This spot is certainly above his current level. His last race was pretty good and he needs to run one to stay on form before they send him to his next location. I do not expect him to have an effect on the pace or the outcome of this race. Barring extraodinary circumstances that is. We'll see how he does.

[chadk66]

not to hijack the thread but I have noticed in the past few years that there are not many 3 year old only races on a regular basis at many tracks. this forces you to run them against older horses and I feel contributes to shortening their careers. Thus removing horses from the industry that wouldn't have to be so early in their careers.

[plainolebill]

3YO Confederate Rags will face older horses in this starter allowance race today. He last raced and won Mar 24 in a 12.5k maiden claimer. His class rating is 24 points below today's race rating.

This spot is certainly above his current level. His last race was pretty good and he needs to run one to stay on form before they send him to his next location. I do not expect him to have an effect on the pace or the outcome of this race. Barring extraodinary circumstances that is. We'll see how he does.

He lost that race because he was 3? :lol:

[Murph]

He lost that race because he was 3? :lol:
I think he was not asked for his best effort in this race because he is facing older horses this early in his career. As chadk66 mentions, he may not have had a spot to run against 3yo's before the end of this meeting. I predict he will ship to a track with a race for 3YO's only where he will be competitive at decent odds because of this type of "poor" PP running line.

What is your take on this race and Confederate Rags here, plainolebill?

[plainolebill]

Hi Murph, I agree he was way over his head class wise and he wasn't quick enough to compete for the early lead in the race. Whether any of that has anything to do with his age I don't think so.

My original post was clearly about N2L races, this was a wide open starter, the horse that won had 5 wins under his belt.

BTW Confederate Rags broke his mdn in a 3 and up race.

[chadk66]

Hi Murph, I agree he was way over his head class wise and he wasn't quick enough to compete for the early lead in the race. Whether any of that has anything to do with his age I don't think so.

My original post was clearly about N2L races, this was a wide open starter, the horse that won had 5 wins under his belt.

BTW Confederate Rags broke his mdn in a 3 and up race.there is a huge difference between running a 3 yo against maiden older horses and running a 3 yo winner against older winners.

[Murph]

Hi Murph, I agree he was way over his head class wise and he wasn't quick enough to compete for the early lead in the race. Whether any of that has anything to do with his age I don't think so.

My original post was clearly about N2L races, this was a wide open starter, the horse that won had 5 wins under his belt.

BTW Confederate Rags broke his mdn in a 3 and up race.
I apologize to you, Bill. When you mentioned N2L I thought an example of a 3YO facing older winners in a similar situation would be proper.

Since I am not understanding what you are looking for I will refrain from further comment on the matter. Again, my sincere apologies for confusing your issue.