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View Full Version : The bounce is coming...


Mc990
04-11-2017, 05:02 PM
If you look back to last year at another Pletcher colt, Destin, one can certainly draw some similarities to Always Dreaming...

If you recall Pletcher gave him extra time into the derby after a monster new top at Tampa... I'm not sure if the initial decision was his or the owner's but regardless, both camps are known sheet users... They figured the additional rest could help mitigate the impending bounce.

Well AD has a sheet that very much resembles Destin's except he's getting less rest. Yes, they won the Florida Derby but now what...

The extra time last year for Destin was supposed to be a negative and based on that he got a little lost in the wagering... This will not be the case for AD but his circumstances and pattern are much more concerning, at least to my eye.

He's the potential favorite and most certainly a top 3 choice. For my money, Destin was an overlay last year at 21-1 off 8 weeks rest but AD is a massive underlay at 6-1 or less with 5 weeks.

AirNate012
04-11-2017, 05:27 PM
His last 3 races have essentially been effortless, no real challenge. He's won by a combined 20 lengths. I'm a sheet user as well but I don't feel like the numbers tell the full story here. I feel like he's got enough left in the tank. He won't be one of my key horses based on his short price, but I'll definitely include him on my tickets.

f2tornado
04-11-2017, 05:45 PM
Keep in mind you're comparing the 8.5F quirky surface Tampa Derby to the 9F Florida Derby. That extra half panel is only 6-7 seconds be can be a world of difference.

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 08:36 PM
I just think we are gonna end up with a bomb this year. 4 years in a row the favorite has won. Six figure super.

boys at tosconova
04-11-2017, 09:23 PM
as much as i would like to see

http://blog.unl.edu/dixon/files/2011/10/tumblr_lrf8bnIIVi1qcay1ao1_500.gif

in the derby, i don't get the same feeling w/ destin as i do with always dreaming. destin wasn't as well meant as this horse imo.

as much as it pains me to say it, this horse reminds me more of bodemeister, (trainers aside) and he'll prolly be the KD favorite w/ a strong chance of winning.

Davidc110
04-11-2017, 10:16 PM
as much as i would like to see

http://blog.unl.edu/dixon/files/2011/10/tumblr_lrf8bnIIVi1qcay1ao1_500.gif

in the derby, i don't get the same feeling w/ destin as i do with always dreaming. destin wasn't as well meant as this horse imo.

as much as it pains me to say it, this horse reminds me more of bodemeister, (trainers aside) and he'll prolly be the KD favorite w/ a strong chance of winning.

Vintage Steve McQueen great find.

Andrick
04-12-2017, 04:45 AM
Always Dreaming's thorograph sheet does look pretty ugly and suggests a bounce. As does his trainer's record when he has one of his horses run a final prep in Florida. He's had only 9 horses run their final prep in Florida thus it's only a small sample size. But out of those 9, 3 of them ran an off race in the Derby according to thorograph with the other 6 running X races. None of the 9 ran a new top or even paired one. A few of those were well backed by the public in the wagering and went off among the top choices as well (Scat Daddy, Dunkirk, Devil May Care, Materiality).

boys at tosconova
04-12-2017, 03:42 PM
Always Dreaming's thorograph sheet does look pretty ugly and suggests a bounce. As does his trainer's record when he has one of his horses run a final prep in Florida. He's had only 9 horses run their final prep in Florida thus it's only a small sample size. But out of those 9, 3 of them ran an off race in the Derby according to thorograph with the other 6 running X races. None of the 9 ran a new top or even paired one. A few of those were well backed by the public in the wagering and went off among the top choices as well (Scat Daddy, Dunkirk, Devil May Care, Materiality).

i usually tend to expect a bounce from a horse that's never shown much then won. i expect to see it less with good horses. i can't very well start questioning their next race just because they were lights out awesome in their previous race(s) imo always dreaming doesn't look like a flash in the pan.

breaking it down as simple as it gets "when you're better, you're better"

i don't know if this applies to AD but there's not many you can still say this about that will be in the race. AD is one of them.

it's still the kentucky derby, and you get a built in excuse for running it if you run poorly

f2tornado
04-12-2017, 08:39 PM
I tried coming up with excuses to beat American Pharoah two years ago in spite of him meeting my two favorite angles (final fractions and RAN sire line) and making it look easy in Arkansas. I see many similarities with Always Dreaming except I'm not going to make excuses and try to beat him. It is the Derby and as such will come up with a saver play or two.

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 09:10 PM
If we are looking for reasons to beat him how bout these:

1. Ran a 71 beyer last time before the Florida Derby after a jump like that a bounce back almost always happens... Like Irish War Cry after his first 100 plus beyer...

2. Until the Florida Derby the competition he faced was piss poor and the Florida Derby set up well for him as all the speed held.

3. 4 years of favs in a row, at some point you gotta bet on the law of averages.

I just think we are getting a bomb this year. At least thats the way im gonna bet it and hope to fill my pockets.


With the unpredictable way the prep season has gone why would anyone think the derby is going to be formful?

f2tornado
04-12-2017, 10:14 PM
If we are looking for reasons to beat him how bout these:

1. Ran a 71 beyer last time before the Florida Derby after a jump like that a bounce back almost always happens... Like Irish War Cry after his first 100 plus beyer...

2. Until the Florida Derby the competition he faced was piss poor and the Florida Derby set up well for him as all the speed held.

3. 4 years of favs in a row, at some point you gotta bet on the law of averages.

I just think we are getting a bomb this year. At least thats the way im gonna bet it and hope to fill my pockets.


With the unpredictable way the prep season has gone why would anyone think the derby is going to be formful?

1. MTB ran what, an 80 BSF in the Sunland then won the Derby and nearly won the Preakness. I don't play the bounce game as much with 3 year olds. Arrogate showed no bounce after he blew up Saratoga.

2. He was the speed along with Three Rules in the Florida Derby and never really slowed down throughout.

3. If you flip a quarter 50 times and have it land on heads every time then you still have a roughly 50% chance to hit heads the 51st time. I say roughly since there is a 1% bias toward the side face up at time of flip.

I'm all for bombs but need something to grasp them with. Mine That Bird had a Derby Winning jockey, the dominant sire line and a sneaky good tail female family. I didn't bet it either. Giacomo had an elite pilot and strong closing fractions in the SA Derby. I was less impressed with his breeding but there were only 5 starters that year with strong closing fractions and two made up the top and bottom of the trifecta. The place horse Closing Argument had a strong tail female Artless. I'll Have Another was 15-1 but had the credentials of a 4-1 favorite. Regardless, 15-1 is not what I consider bomber territory. The 19 hole scared me away from that one and it cost me. Won't do that again.

If I had to pick a bona fide bomber now it would be Patch. He's got the double Buckpasser-x, Blue Larkspur via tail femal line, 30 dosage points including a solid, and a fast 3/8th. No shock at all if he blows up the tote board at 40-1.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 08:31 AM
1. MTB ran what, an 80 BSF in the Sunland then won the Derby and nearly won the Preakness. I don't play the bounce game as much with 3 year olds. Arrogate showed no bounce after he blew up Saratoga.

2. He was the speed along with Three Rules in the Florida Derby and never really slowed down throughout.

3. If you flip a quarter 50 times and have it land on heads every time then you still have a roughly 50% chance to hit heads the 51st time. I say roughly since there is a 1% bias toward the side face up at time of flip.

I'm all for bombs but need something to grasp them with. Mine That Bird had a Derby Winning jockey, the dominant sire line and a sneaky good tail female family. I didn't bet it either. Giacomo had an elite pilot and strong closing fractions in the SA Derby. I was less impressed with his breeding but there were only 5 starters that year with strong closing fractions and two made up the top and bottom of the trifecta. The place horse Closing Argument had a strong tail female Artless. I'll Have Another was 15-1 but had the credentials of a 4-1 favorite. Regardless, 15-1 is not what I consider bomber territory. The 19 hole scared me away from that one and it cost me. Won't do that again.

If I had to pick a bona fide bomber now it would be Patch. He's got the double Buckpasser-x, Blue Larkspur via tail femal line, 30 dosage points including a solid, and a fast 3/8th. No shock at all if he blows up the tote board at 40-1.

Totally agree with you on Patch, wonder how the whole one eye thing effects his ability to navigate in a 20 horse field.

PowerUpPaynter
04-14-2017, 09:16 PM
ya know looking at this horse he won the Florida Derby where all the speed held in the race, 4 of the top 5 horses were all horses in the front. Looking at his other 2 route races he got to sit on a soft pace. He might be very beatable.

f2tornado
04-14-2017, 10:49 PM
His preceding allowance race was real soft but he came home extremely fast. I was skeptical of American Pharoah after running some soft factions in the Rebel in spite of tearing it up down the lane. Not making that mistake again. A good pilot is only going to use as much horsepower as necessary. The FL Derby had a much stronger pace and he kept going. He's the logical favorite at this time. He fits my top three Derby angles: RAN sire line, fast final fractions in major 9F prep, and a big league pilot. I certainly will have coverage on a couple others but this one is my top selection unless he is not taking to the track in workouts.

Exotic1
05-06-2017, 09:17 PM
His last 3 races have essentially been effortless, no real challenge. He's won by a combined 20 lengths. I'm a sheet user as well but I don't feel like the numbers tell the full story here. I feel like he's got enough left in the tank. He won't be one of my key horses based on his short price, but I'll definitely include him on my tickets.

You deserve some credit for going against the grain. Some comments/excuses you may hear:

1) Always Dreaming bounced but still won.

2) I still wouldn't bet him at those odds. Terrible bet.

3) Why do you buy sheets?

4) Rode a gold rail.



Truth is I bet against AD in multi's. Needed the runner ups.

Mc990
05-06-2017, 10:34 PM
You deserve some credit for going against the grain. Some comments/excuses you may hear:

1) Always Dreaming bounced but still won.

2) I still wouldn't bet him at those odds. Terrible bet.

3) Why do you buy sheets?

4) Rode a gold rail.



Truth is I bet against AD in multi's. Needed the runner ups.

Still hard to swallow him as the favorite. Bounce is certainly coming in Baltimore. I for one will be betting against him with both firsts.

These derby winners off 5-6 weeks are never good bets wheeling back in 2 weeks... This one seems worse. Uncharted territory for Pletcher who if given the choice wouldn't be running

If AD would have run 2nd today, he'd undoubtably be on the shelf til the Belmont

burnsy
05-06-2017, 11:01 PM
I don't understand the bounce garbage. Most consistent of these by far. Just beat the snot out of them.........yet again. Its all the others that have had excuses this season. This horse just keeps winning. The talk about works and all the other garbage never makes up for the fastest horse, right trip, right time. Did well today, just didn't catch that exacta. Of the short priced horses, he looked the best. Some had some real "stinkers" and it showed today.

f2tornado
05-07-2017, 12:08 AM
I had $1300 "bounce" into my account. Got cheap not including the Oaks winner on the P3 or would have had a lot more. I will key him on top in Preakness. It's the Belmont where his dosage might catch up with him.

PowerUpPaynter
05-07-2017, 03:10 PM
I had $1300 "bounce" into my account. Got cheap not including the Oaks winner on the P3 or would have had a lot more. I will key him on top in Preakness. It's the Belmont where his dosage might catch up with him.

Obvious Preakness winner will be tough to make money on him tho.

f2tornado
05-07-2017, 03:54 PM
Obvious Preakness winner will be tough to make money on him tho.

California Chome straight chalk tri paid 36-1 and the chalk super was 176-1. Silly me only made a token tri wager that year thinking it was gonna pay short. Oops. Then there was the American Pharoah slop fest that paid huge with Dallas Stewart blowing up the tote again. Last year was okay as well considering the top two finished 1-3 with Cherry Wine in the middle.

depalma113
05-07-2017, 09:02 PM
Still hard to swallow him as the favorite. Bounce is certainly coming in Baltimore. I for one will be betting against him with both firsts.

These derby winners off 5-6 weeks are never good bets wheeling back in 2 weeks... This one seems worse. Uncharted territory for Pletcher who if given the choice wouldn't be running

If AD would have run 2nd today, he'd undoubtably be on the shelf til the Belmont


Good luck, the horse isn't losing in Pimlico. Belmont may be another story, but even that is suspect.

He's Afleet Alex part two.

Mc990
05-08-2017, 12:32 PM
Good luck, the horse isn't losing in Pimlico. Belmont may be another story, but even that is suspect.

He's Afleet Alex part two.

A Pletcher at odds on wheeling back in 2 weeks after a perfect trip on the best part of a sloppy track.... What could go wrong...

This game is all about value. This colt will be had, whether it be in 2 weeks or 5 and I'm not missing the boat. Any money lost betting against him in the Preakness is just an investment to set up a bigger return at Belmont. Either way there's value in being against him.

Mc990
05-08-2017, 12:36 PM
Good luck, the horse isn't losing in Pimlico. Belmont may be another story, but even that is suspect.

He's Afleet Alex part two.

The 5-6 week layoff horses into the derby are almost guaranteed to regress with only 2 weeks... Big brown bounced and won, AK bounced and almost won. AD could certainly find himself in the same position but the percentage play is to play against.

And yes... Horses are not machines, they do bounce. Especially on short rest and especially for a trainer like Pletcher who absolutely believes in spacing.

Exotic1
05-08-2017, 01:52 PM
A Pletcher at odds on wheeling back in 2 weeks after a perfect trip on the best part of a sloppy track.... What could go wrong...

This game is all about value. This colt will be had, whether it be in 2 weeks or 5 and I'm not missing the boat. Any money lost betting against him in the Preakness is just an investment to set up a bigger return at Belmont. Either way there's value in being against him.

Sounds like a plan. Love the "Investment" approach. Do we still have to find a winner or will there be excess "value" in the pools that anyone can just make money? Doubling down in horse racing could possibly work. Main thing is to get a set of numbers and stats we believe in and send it in.

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 02:54 PM
but the percentage play is to play against.

Maybe in 5 weeks and I'll join in on the fun. Historically, the Derby winner or beaten Derby favorite wins the Preakness. Even if you beat him there history suggests you will not get a windfall. Oxbow was the exception, not the rule. Also, new shooter winners are quite rare.

depalma113
05-08-2017, 03:01 PM
A Pletcher at odds on wheeling back in 2 weeks after a perfect trip on the best part of a sloppy track.... What could go wrong...

This game is all about value. This colt will be had, whether it be in 2 weeks or 5 and I'm not missing the boat. Any money lost betting against him in the Preakness is just an investment to set up a bigger return at Belmont. Either way there's value in being against him.

There was a lot of nonsense before the Derby about Pletcher too. I ignored that just like I will ignore this. Even Pletcher is allowed to get superior horses every now and than.

Exotic1
05-08-2017, 03:40 PM
California Chome straight chalk tri paid 36-1 and the chalk super was 176-1. Silly me only made a token tri wager that year thinking it was gonna pay short. Oops. Then there was the American Pharoah slop fest that paid huge with Dallas Stewart blowing up the tote again. Last year was okay as well considering the top two finished 1-3 with Cherry Wine in the middle.

To put things in perspective, Patch was 14-1 and Always Dreaming was 9-2. If we can't find "value" there, well I don't know.

elhelmete
05-08-2017, 03:49 PM
To put things in perspective, Patch was 14-1 and Always Dreaming was 9-2. If we can't find "value" there, well I don't know.

100% exactly.

If I had the time, I'd love to see what the final odds would have looked like with Patch at his M/L or even better with him out of the race.

He sucked up more emotional money than I can recall a longshot doing in a long while.

Exotic1
05-08-2017, 03:51 PM
100% exactly.

If I had the time, I'd love to see what the final odds would have looked like with Patch at his M/L or even better with him out of the race.

He sucked up more emotional money than I can recall a longshot doing in a long while.

To be fair, Patch was like 30-1 or more in exotics.

Dahoss9698
05-09-2017, 10:02 AM
It's interesting to me to see horseplayers make such definite statements 2 weeks out. So much can happen that it seems premature to declare someone has no shot or is a cinch before we know who is showing up, how they are training, etc.