Gunnevera or McCraken

[PowerUpPaynter]

I feel that at least one of these will finish in the derby super. Very similar horses who do you like better and why?

I would choose Gunnevera, he did look like he lost some weight last time out, so I hope he isnt wearing down but his Florida Derby 3rd was sneaky good and McCraken couldnt catch Irap.

[Run Nicholas Run]

gunnevera for myself between the two
as I like the closing style and rather have
castellano than BJ hernandez

[letswastemoney]

Gunnevera has a better distance pedigree, and will probably go off at higher odds.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Everybody covered the peripherals well. I just like that Gunnevera is a seasoned competitor, has always run a decent race, has agreeable numbers, and hasn't missed any training. 90% sure I am betting this horse as of this moment. I think the crowd will be on Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, and because of the history of success of the race Gormley. Will give solid odds on G. Ready to roll!:)

[PowerUpPaynter]

Gunnevera reminds me of Ice Box, I just see him coming late. I can't see a scenario where he dont land in the top 4 and I love him to place. I will definitely be holding an exacta ticket of about 5 long shots over him.

[Mc990]

Gunnevera reminds me of Ice Box, I just see him coming late. I can't see a scenario where he dont land in the top 4 and I love him to place. I will definitely be holding an exacta ticket of about 5 long shots over him.

Are you at all concerned that the Fountain of Youth fried him? Monster effort that early as a 3 year old.... Doesn't sit well with me.

He definitely had some circumstances (mostly post position) against him last out but regardless, he bounced hard. The FOY being such a dramatic top for him, I'm taking a decidedly more negative view going forward.

[f2tornado]

Gunnevera's TFUS number only slipped a few points last out suggesting the FOY might not have been a big bona fide top. He ran decent fractions in the final 3/8th and has a rider I trust. I will be using him Derby day but not as much as others. I suspect he will need a pace meltdown to win it and many front runners and pacers have held up very well through 9F this year.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Are you at all concerned that the Fountain of Youth fried him? Monster effort that early as a 3 year old.... Doesn't sit well with me.

He definitely had some circumstances (mostly post position) against him last out but regardless, he bounced hard. The FOY being such a dramatic top for him, I'm taking a decidedly more negative view going forward.

I thought he looked like he lost weight when I saw him at the Florida Derby, but his 3rd was sneaky good 4 of the 5 horses that were in the front held and he still managed to close for 3rd. I like that 3rd much better than McCraken's

[yankeelpn]

Ill Box Gunnever and McCraken.

[arw629]

I want no part of McCracken. Gunnevera had no chance last time with the poor post that I'm willing to forgive. If I can get 10-1 or more he might be my pick pending on post.
I'm also betting Irap.

[Robert Fischer]

Gunnevera was either the best horse, or the second best horse in the Florida Derby. I couldn't tell you.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I want no part of McCracken. Gunnevera had no chance last time with the poor post that I'm willing to forgive. If I can get 10-1 or more he might be my pick pending on post.
I'm also betting Irap.

Iv read way too much Irap love since Saturday.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought he looked like he lost weight when I saw him at the Florida Derby, but his 3rd was sneaky good 4 of the 5 horses that were in the front held and he still managed to close for 3rd. I like that 3rd much better than McCraken's

A furious finishing 3rd in a fast race is better than a straight up outrun flatulence in a slow race!

[Dahoss9698]

I actually love McCracken's race in the Bluegrass and cannot wait to bet him in the Derby, as long as he gets in.

First, he missed his prep (TB Derby) because of the ankle strain and also missed about 2 weeks of training. Second, he ran much better than it looked IMO. Was way closer than usual because of the slow pace. Dropped back to last around the turn, made a solid move into the stretch and wasn't beaten much at all.

Third, he's 3 for 3 at Churchill. Lastly, his trainer came up under Carl Nafzger who was a master at targeting a race. He understood the value of a prep and not squeezing the lemon dry before the big one.

I anticipate a much tighter McCracken for the Derby and think we'll see a peak performance by him.

[Mr. Pick 5]

youre talking about a horse that couldnt make up any lengths in the stretch against a maiden who was running on the wrong lead....hes all yours

[Dahoss9698]

youre talking about a horse that couldnt make up any lengths in the stretch against a maiden who was running on the wrong lead....hes all yours

I'm well aware that Saturday's race wasn't his best. But I thought I laid out a pretty good reason why it wasn't. Do you think that was his "a" race? Or is it possible he's got a much better effort in him?

[Mr. Pick 5]

I'm well aware that Saturday's race wasn't his best. But I thought I laid out a pretty good reason why it wasn't. Do you think that was his "a" race? Or is it possible he's got a much better effort in him?

I surely hope it wasnt his A race...and i dont think it was his A race...but if he was the real deal, his C race should have been able to blow by those horse in the stretch...or atleast look better than he did....i thought he looked pretty flat....it was surprising

[Dahoss9698]

Guess we disagree. That's what this game is all about. I do recommend watching the race again to anyone on the fence about him.

I thought it was bad first time I saw it too. But after rewatching it a few times tonight I picked up on some things I missed first time. Just need him to get in now.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Guess we disagree. That's what this game is all about. I do recommend watching the race again to anyone on the fence about him.

I thought it was bad first time I saw it too. But after rewatching it a few times tonight I picked up on some things I missed first time. Just need him to get in now.

I think he should be in barring something really extreme....theres almost no way hes not in the gate....do you have your eye on any other horses aside from him?

[PowerUpPaynter]

I did extensive work on Gunnevera tonight. He will finish in the money. Its a lock. Fountain Of Youth, Delta Jackpot, and the Saratoga Special watch him close! Thats a derby board hitting move. And the horse he closed on in the sprint race the saratoga special is going to be a hell of a sprinter who just won a big one last week. Recruiting Ready. Buckpasser in the X, fast closing fractions in the Florida Derby where he was taken back a little too far and all the speed help but he ran up for 3rd. Sneaky Good. give me 12-1 and im pounding it. As much as I like Hence I think Gunnevera is just a better version of Hence or a more polished version...

[boys at tosconova]

I did extensive work on Gunnevera tonight. He will finish in the money. Its a lock..

could somebody do some extensive work and tell me gunnevera won't be 17/18/19/20 for half the race.

[Andrick]

Are you at all concerned that the Fountain of Youth fried him? Monster effort that early as a 3 year old.... Doesn't sit well with me.

He definitely had some circumstances (mostly post position) against him last out but regardless, he bounced hard. The FOY being such a dramatic top for him, I'm taking a decidedly more negative view going forward.

That's the way I'm going to be viewing him going the Derby. I can't bet a horse in the Derby off an X race, especially when there were observations made before the FD that Gunnevera had lost some weight between the FOY and his last. The post race comments from Castellano, when he said that the horse lacked his usual punch when he asked him around the far turn, also raises an alarm.

[luisbe]

Gunnevera is going to be the "fave" to hit the board, he'll be in all tickets. No value.

[no breathalyzer]

:headbanger: I actually feel the same about McCraken... only time will tell if its the kiss of death Dahoss9698 :lol: Since you been on record thinking i'm a drunk moron :)

You want a warm beer :pound:

[señorclipclop]

Both ran better than the results might indicate. Probably will use both in 3rd/4th.

[The Biscuit]

I did extensive work on Gunnevera tonight. He will finish in the money. Its a lock. Fountain Of Youth, Delta Jackpot, and the Saratoga Special watch him close! Thats a derby board hitting move. And the horse he closed on in the sprint race the saratoga special is going to be a hell of a sprinter who just won a big one last week. Recruiting Ready. Buckpasser in the X, fast closing fractions in the Florida Derby where he was taken back a little too far and all the speed help but he ran up for 3rd. Sneaky Good. give me 12-1 and im pounding it. As much as I like Hence I think Gunnevera is just a better version of Hence or a more polished version...


Agree bro ... following that Buckpasser in the X with good late speed time in last race , heading to Derby ...

McCraken ... won't finish in top 4 ...

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://twitter.com/SteveHaskin/status/853236233534935041

[f2tornado]

Gunnevera's fast fractions in concert with the Buckpasser-x angle make him a must use, at least for the exacta. He has a big league rider which I believe is a big plus in a huge field. His dosage profile suggests the distance will not be an issue. He reminds me of Orb albeit Orb was undefeated going into the dance. If the speed folds I suspect he will contend otherwise we will see another version of Exaggerator. I'm thinking McCraken might be Mohaymen Jr. but he has ran well at the track and therefore I cannot totally throw out of my tri wager.

[boys at tosconova]

gunnevera-

dialed in, revolutionary, mylute, frosted, archx3..and i'm sure i'm missing many more really good deep closers. i can't even play the horse because of him be a deep closer. you simple are are up against it from being 18/19/20th. in the KD.....to make matters worse the horse gets compromised in smaller fields as well. he'll need a quick pace and plenty of luck...this coming on the heels of a short price in every exotic bet

as much as i think he's good enough, his racing style and large field negates almost everything positive imo

hassan chop

[PowerUpPaynter]

gunnevera-

dialed in, revolutionary, mylute, frosted, archx3..and i'm sure i'm missing many more really good deep closers. i can't even play the horse because of him be a deep closer. you simple are are up against it from being 18/19/20th. in the KD.....to make matters worse the horse gets compromised in smaller fields as well. he'll need a quick pace and plenty of luck...this coming on the heels of a short price in every exotic bet

as much as i think he's good enough, his racing style and large field negates almost everything positive imo

hassan chop

Pretty sure Revolutionary hit the board, Frosted finished 4th, and that 50-1 turd sandwich Mine That Bird came from dead last if i remember correctly... that damn turd sandwich, i hate that horse! Take that horse out of it and I hot the win bet, exacta, tri, and super!!!!

[Mr. Pick 5]

Pretty sure Revolutionary hit the board, Frosted finished 4th, and that 50-1 turd sandwich Mine That Bird came from dead last if i remember correctly... that damn turd sandwich, i hate that horse! Take that horse out of it and I hot the win bet, exacta, tri, and super!!!!

How can you hate Mine That Bird??? :bang:

That horse is an absolute legend....One of the biggest nukes of all time

Yea that horse lost me money, but that horse is what dreams are made of.

[PowerUpPaynter]

How can you hate Mine That Bird??? :bang:

That horse is an absolute legend....One of the biggest nukes of all time

Yea that horse lost me money, but that horse is what dreams are made of.

total turd sandwich! lol - I like rags to riches story California Chrome much better

[PowerUpPaynter]

In reference to McCraken how much credence do you guys put in the "his trainer knows how to point to a race" theory with McCraken's bluegrass? Seems like a load of crap to me, am I wrong for dismissing this?

That aside I think McCraken is flying under the radar a little

[Dahoss9698]

In reference to McCraken how much credence do you guys put in the "his trainer knows how to point to a race" theory with McCraken's bluegrass? Seems like a load of crap to me, am I wrong for dismissing this?

That aside I think McCraken is flying under the radar a little

Why would it seem like a load of crap? Don't you think gfted trainers know when to tighten the screws and when not to?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Why would it seem like a load of crap? Don't you think gfted trainers know when to tighten the screws and when not to?

its a million dollar race

[Dahoss9698]

its a million dollar race

Right and it's a PREP for 2 million dollar race.

If the Bluegrass was a $250k race, would you buy the theory?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Right and it's a PREP for 2 million dollar race.

If the Bluegrass was a $250k race, would you buy the theory?

Fair question and I still dont know. I guess I subscribe to the Herm Edwards theory that you play to win the game. Winning your final prep hasn't hurt any of the past 4 derby winners

[PowerUpPaynter]

https://twitter.com/ASanoRacing/status/855403740840546305





FIT. HEALTHY. SOUND.

[Valuist]

gunnevera-

dialed in, revolutionary, mylute, frosted, archx3..and i'm sure i'm missing many more really good deep closers. i can't even play the horse because of him be a deep closer. you simple are are up against it from being 18/19/20th. in the KD.....to make matters worse the horse gets compromised in smaller fields as well. he'll need a quick pace and plenty of luck...this coming on the heels of a short price in every exotic bet

as much as i think he's good enough, his racing style and large field negates almost everything positive imo

hassan chop

I can think of quite a few deep closers who've run well in the Derby: winners like Orb, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos and Unbridled all come to mind. Last year Exaggerated ran 2nd coming from far back. The Derby is a race where a deep closer DOES have a legit shot.

[f2tornado]

Fair question and I still dont know. I guess I subscribe to the Herm Edwards theory that you play to win the game. Winning your final prep hasn't hurt any of the past 4 derby winners

Likewise. Might as well win a graded stakes when you can. There's no guarantee the winner's circle will show up again... and it being the KY Derby is one of the smallest shots possible.

I will be using Gunnevera and McCraken underneath. I like Gunny and his rider more but the deep closing style comes with more risk. He will very likely have contested pace to run at but I predict it will be much like the FL Derby where he simply cannot get up for more than a piece. I'm not sure McCraken is any better than what he showed at Keeneland. His speed numbers have been pretty steady. Reminds me a bit of Mohaymen. Exposed at 9F but good enough to catch a piece of the super.

[Blenheim]

Likewise. Might as well win a graded stakes when you can. There's no guarantee the winner's circle will show up again... and it being the KY Derby is one of the smallest shots possible.

I will be using Gunnevera and McCraken underneath. I like Gunny and his rider more but the deep closing style comes with more risk. He will very likely have contested pace to run at but I predict it will be much like the FL Derby where he simply cannot get up for more than a piece. I'm not sure McCraken is any better than what he showed at Keeneland. His speed numbers have been pretty steady. Reminds me a bit of Mohaymen. Exposed at 9F but good enough to catch a piece of the super.


He shows an interesting pattern since the Saratoga Special - fifth then first; second then first; shows a third in the Florida. They took him way back in the Florida, checked him right at the start, turned him the rail, don't think that was the one they wanted, likely the next one.

The trainer here, Antonio, (can't says if I ever heard of him before this) has done an outstanding job w/this colt, knows he has a live one. I don't think I have ever seen such a series of stellar works - those 59s and then that 58, don't see them too often. This one appears to be stout and relishes the running, just breezin!

Given that extra couple hundred yards come the Derby, I'm a thinkin' he catches that front end. Bought a Dual Qualifier for 16k, nice buy.

[Dream_Police]

Take a look at Keenelands charts for the days leading up to the Blue Grass. If you were not within a couple of lengths of the lead you were not going to win and that was what played out on Bluegrass day. I will be playing McCraken on my tickets. A horse that was short and a track that was not going to let you make up ground and you have a horse in McCraken that has every right to bounce back big in the Derby.

[Dream_Police]

Don't hate Mine That Bird, hate Borel for giving him one of the GREAT rides in derby history.

[PhantomOnTour]

Gunnevera will likely be my key runner, depending on odds, late defections, etc...

My main concern is that while there's quite a few E/P types lined up, I see few if any bonafide E "lead or bust" types. So the pace may be crowded but not especially fast & destructive (see the American Pharaoh, Dortmund, Firing Line scenario...ran 1-2-3 all the way around).
But does Gunnevera even need a total meltdown to win it? I don't think so, and the recent sharp works indicate he may not be as far back as he has before.
Needs the right ride (who doesn't?) but as of now I have him as a top two threat.

[The Biscuit]

I can think of quite a few deep closers who've run well in the Derby: winners like Orb, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos and Unbridled all come to mind. Last year Exaggerated ran 2nd coming from far back. The Derby is a race where a deep closer DOES have a legit shot.

71% Past 30 Derby Winners have been won by back of the pack horses ....

Just trying to help ...

[sbcaris]

Biscuit: How do you define back of the pack horses. Are they horses that are worse than 10th at the 1/2 mile call. Or are they horses that are far back in the prep races leading up to the Derby?

[sbcaris]

Biscuit: Here is some interesting data on horses far back or close up in the last 16 Derby winners:

The following Ky Derby winners were less than but no more than 7 lengths behind the leader at the 1/2 mile call:

Nyquist
American Pharaoh
California Chrome
Ill have Another
Super Saver
Big Brown
Barbaro
Smarty Jones
Funny Side
War Emblem

The following Ky Derby winners were more than 7 lengths behind at the 1/2 mile call in their Derbies:

Orb
Animal Kingdom
Mine That Bird
Street Sense
Giacomo
Monarchos

So based on the data above one can conclude that 10 winners were 7 lengths behind at the 1/2 mile call and 6 Derby winners were more than 7 back. 37% were deep closers and 63% were fairly close early on.

Deep closers can win the roses but to a much lesser extent than horses that have a reasonable amount of early speed that can place them within 7 lengths of the leader at the 1/2 mile call.

[The Biscuit]

Biscuit: How do you define back of the pack horses. Are they horses that are worse than 10th at the 1/2 mile call. Or are they horses that are far back in the prep races leading up to the Derby?


Per Jon White ( Express bets ) ...something he said ...not me ...

Thought that sounding a bit off myself ... ?

[boys at tosconova]

Biscuit: Here is some interesting data on horses far back or close up in the last 16 Derby winners:

The following Ky Derby winners were less than but no more than 7 lengths behind the leader at the 1/2 mile call:

Nyquist
American Pharaoh
California Chrome
Ill have Another
Super Saver
Big Brown
Barbaro
Smarty Jones
Funny Side
War Emblem

The following Ky Derby winners were more than 7 lengths behind at the 1/2 mile call in their Derbies:

Orb
Animal Kingdom
Mine That Bird
Street Sense
Giacomo
Monarchos

So based on the data above one can conclude that 10 winners were 7 lengths behind at the 1/2 mile call and 6 Derby winners were more than 7 back. 37% were deep closers and 63% were fairly close early on.

Deep closers can win the roses but to a much lesser extent than horses that have a reasonable amount of early speed that can place them within 7 lengths of the leader at the 1/2 mile call.

this is really just messy data that's only as good as your your parameters. while it tells you some helpful things, it doesn't tell you enough or drive into it more. at least for me.

[letswastemoney]

The Derby favors tactical speed for the win spot, and closers for underneath positions.

Closers will get a lot of pace, but a 20 horse field is a lot to handle and cut through. I'd prefer quality speed on top if I made a ticket.

[delsully]

Take a look at Keenelands charts for the days leading up to the Blue Grass. If you were not within a couple of lengths of the lead you were not going to win and that was what played out on Bluegrass day. I will be playing McCraken on my tickets. A horse that was short and a track that was not going to let you make up ground and you have a horse in McCraken that has every right to bounce back big in the Derby.

Sharp post! He didn't get a great trip either.

[f2tornado]

Odd stat that elite pilot Javier Castellano is oh-fer-whatever hitting the board in the Derby. I decided to toss both from the top and use both underneath. I suspect both will get killed by moderately fast pace. I can't separate them much. I think Gunner has the better distance breeding but Crackers is the horse for course.

[glengarry]

In reference to McCraken how much credence do you guys put in the "his trainer knows how to point to a race" theory with McCraken's bluegrass? Seems like a load of crap to me, am I wrong for dismissing this?

That aside I think McCraken is flying under the radar a little

Wilkes learned from one of the best at pointing a horse to a race. There is zero doubt in my mind that McCraken was anywhere near fully cranked in the BG. He will be on Derby Day. While Wilkes is not on a par with Nafzger, he is, like his mentor, a hay and oats guy. I like those type of trainers on big stakes days. Both him and Gunnevera should run their races. If you switch riders, I would be much more bullish on McCracken. Castellano is on an unreal, prolonged run of greatness. He seems to rarely, if ever, make a mistake.

As for where you want to be in the Derby, it's no different than any race. Before the point system, most derbies had pace meltdowns, as several sprinters or milers made the field, and made the pace. Different story the past few years. The presence of Battalion Runner may mean an honest, but not runaway, pace this year. You need to look at the derby history as before and after the point system. What happened before doesn't matter anymore.

[AirNate012]

Wilkes learned from one of the best at pointing a horse to a race. There is zero doubt in my mind that McCraken was anywhere near fully cranked in the BG. He will be on Derby Day. While Wilkes is not on a par with Nafzger, he is, like his mentor, a hay and oats guy. I like those type of trainers on big stakes days. Both him and Gunnevera should run their races. If you switch riders, I would be much more bullish on McCracken. Castellano is on an unreal, prolonged run of greatness. He seems to rarely, if ever, make a mistake.

As for where you want to be in the Derby, it's no different than any race. Before the point system, most derbies had pace meltdowns, as several sprinters or milers made the field, and made the pace. Different story the past few years. The presence of Battalion Runner may mean an honest, but not runaway, pace this year. You need to look at the derby history as before and after the point system. What happened before doesn't matter anymore.

Yes and no regarding the pace. They did go :22/:45/1:10 last year, but the year before they went :23/:47/1:11.

[Dream_Police]

Both looked really good out on the track Tuesday but McCraken just jogged around and looked like he was out there just to stretch his legs and he seemed to be a large fellow as well. Gunnevera looked like he was really doing well here and seemed to like the track.
On another note, Miss Sky Warrior looked REALLY GOOD out on the track and as of right now she's my Oaks horse.

[glengarry]

Yes and no regarding the pace. They did go :22/:45/1:10 last year, but the year before they went :23/:47/1:11.

Danzig Candy set those fractions on his own, and both Nyquist and Gun Runner settled comfortably off of them, and finished 1-3. Despite fast early fractions, only Exaggerator was the only deep closer that showed up , and never threatened. Older derbies were more like a stampede for the lead. I found those races more intriguing, and really opened it up for huge prices.

Still, you never know who loses it mentally in a 20 horse field, meaning both horse and jockey. Would like to have seen CMM supplemented, as he would have made for a strong pace, and is one gutsy performer.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Danzig Candy set those fractions on his own, and both Nyquist and Gun Runner settled comfortably off of them, and finished 1-3. Despite fast early fractions, only Exaggerator was the only deep closer that showed up , and never threatened. Older derbies were more like a stampede for the lead. I found those races more intriguing, and really opened it up for huge prices.

Still, you never know who loses it mentally in a 20 horse field, meaning both horse and jockey. Would like to have seen CMM supplemented, as he would have made for a strong pace, and is one gutsy performer.

how many horses in this field won more than 1 pts race? Im guessing not many.

[The Biscuit]

Looking for 9th generation pedigree of 4th place finisher in Derby

2003 Atswhatimtalkinbout

Little help ???:headbanger:

[PowerUpPaynter]

Gunnevera really slow work today. 5 in 1:03.60 35/35

[yankeelpn]

Gunnevera really slow work today. 5 in 1:03.60 35/35

Does anyone else think that Gunnevera looks tired/not eager?? Or is that just how he is when he trains?

[Julz]

Supposedly how he works. He also had his major work, which went well, before he got to Churchill. He only had a maintenance work. Basically just jogging him around the track. Trainer said he wanted a 1:04 before he went out. So it was by design. I have a feeling he didn't do a major work at church because re knows what he has and he's hiding him. Couple that with what I think is going to be a fast pace, he's a legit contender.