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PowerUpPaynter
04-10-2017, 07:08 AM
Good day,

What do you guys makes of Irish War Cry? Is he the only horse to run two 100 plus beyers with a RAN sire line and Buckpasser in the X, sired by Curlin who had Exaggerator last year. A horse that finally learned to rate and make that type of Derby winning move. A horse that closed only as fast as he was needed in the Wood on a slow surface as Rajiv Maragh said he had so much horse under him he could of done whatever he wanted?

Or

Is he a horse that flopped really bad in the Fountain Of Youth then came back to run in the Wood Memorial where he passed a completely gassed allowance winner in the stretch and ran slow final fractions?

So what happened in the Fountain Of Youth? Was the Wood just a weak field? But arent most of these races weak fields?

Lots of questions with this one. Lets discuss.

CincyHorseplayer
04-10-2017, 11:07 AM
Going into the FOY I thought he had done so much so fast that I knew it was possible he could regress. The Holy Bull race equaled my route rating for the Kentucky Derby. He was the only horse I was willing to bet Saturday because of it. And for the Derby itself all I needed was a solid effort for verification of the HB number. Big contender.

Robert Fischer
04-10-2017, 11:56 AM
He drew wide in the FOY, and thus had to urge from the gate.
Then he attended the pace with Three Rules, a legit G2 7F horse.

He was clearly a top horse, The question was whether drawing wide in the Wood, would disadvantage him too much to overcome the 'Outwork clone' Battalion Runner, and then hold off the solid Chad Brown hype horse Cloud Computing.
The chances of him running that result looked more like 10 to 1 than 7 to 2, but the result was not a surprise at all.

PowerUpPaynter
04-10-2017, 02:08 PM
Do the slow fractions from the Wood concern anyone? I know the track played slow all day. I like him but at the same I recognize I am kind of a homer for him as I live 15 mins from Monmouth Park and 20 mins from where he was born a bred. So I try to stay grounded with my opinion of him and like to hear what other people say. Luckily I have a 26-1 futures bet on him from pool 1 so I dont have to play him much on top of my exotics come derby day.

Spalding No!
04-10-2017, 10:34 PM
Irish War Cry showed some modest improvement in Wood with regards to his running style. The horse has been practically a run-off in his other starts and was obviously vulnerable to pace pressure. He had a lot in the Laurel stakes and just held on, he had none in the Holy Bull and romped, and he dueled in the FOY and caved in.

In the Wood, his rider seemed to try and avoid the first flight by keeping him wide in the first turn from his outside post. However, as soon as they hit the backstretch, the old Irish War Cry came to the fore, dragging the jockey towards the front end. Maragh had him under stout restraint while full of run as they engaged Battalian Runner. The latter, despite looking dead to rights at the 3/8 pole, had a response to the challenge, only giving way inside the 1/8 pole. Irish War Cry was all out to clear him in a pedestrian finish.

Despite the increasing maturity, this horse is likely to get caught up in the early Derby pace if other speed lines up. Looks like Holy Bull Lite or Diet Unbridled's Song.

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 07:02 AM
Irish War Cry showed some modest improvement in Wood with regards to his running style. The horse has been practically a run-off in his other starts and was obviously vulnerable to pace pressure. He had a lot in the Laurel stakes and just held on, he had none in the Holy Bull and romped, and he dueled in the FOY and caved in.

In the Wood, his rider seemed to try and avoid the first flight by keeping him wide in the first turn from his outside post. However, as soon as they hit the backstretch, the old Irish War Cry came to the fore, dragging the jockey towards the front end. Maragh had him under stout restraint while full of run as they engaged Battalian Runner. The latter, despite looking dead to rights at the 3/8 pole, had a response to the challenge, only giving way inside the 1/8 pole. Irish War Cry was all out to clear him in a pedestrian finish.

Despite the increasing maturity, this horse is likely to get caught up in the early Derby pace if other speed lines up. Looks like Holy Bull Lite or Diet Unbridled's Song.


Rajiv kept looking back and since he didnt see anyone coming and knew he had a lot under him he didnt ask Irish War Cry to go til the 8th pole. Would he have had better final fractions and been more visually impressive if he asked him to go earlier?

f2tornado
04-11-2017, 05:03 PM
Rajiv kept looking back and since he didnt see anyone coming and knew he had a lot under him he didnt ask Irish War Cry to go til the 8th pole. Would he have had better final fractions and been more visually impressive if he asked him to go earlier?

He would have needed to add about 7 lengths to the margin of victory to meet the fractions angle. I still think this one has enough class and stamina to contend for a piece of the pie but predict he will be dinged by what I suspect will be a moderately fast Derby pace.

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 07:30 PM
He would have needed to add about 7 lengths to the margin of victory to meet the fractions angle. I still think this one has enough class and stamina to contend for a piece of the pie but predict he will be dinged by what I suspect will be a moderately fast Derby pace.

agreed, although i wouldnt be shocked if he won the derby, slow aqueduct track or not he'd have to be the first derby winner this century besides mine that bird to run those final fractions and win the derby. I dont think he will tank, could definitely see a top 4 finish. I think he could be a good Preakness horse and if runs well in the Derby i can see myself putting a large WIN bet on him in Baltimore.... getting waaaaaay ahead of myself

Andrick
04-12-2017, 01:13 AM
agreed, although i wouldnt be shocked if he won the derby, slow aqueduct track or not he'd have to be the first derby winner this century besides mine that bird to run those final fractions and win the derby. I dont think he will tank, could definitely see a top 4 finish. I think he could be a good Preakness horse and if runs well in the Derby i can see myself putting a large WIN bet on him in Baltimore.... getting waaaaaay ahead of myself

Somebody on the thorograph forums brought up a concerning issue with Irish War Cry a couple of days ago;

Raced on Nov 11th and didn't work again til Dec 2nd
Raced on Dec 31st and didn't work again til Jan 22nd
Raced on Feb 4th and didn't work again til Feb 25th
raced on Mar 4th and didn't work again til Mar 25th

He's a horse that his trainer feels needs to have 3 weeks after every race before he's comfortable putting him out for a work again. If this pattern continues up to the Derby then Irish War Cry will only be getting in one work before the Derby. The only time he entered a race off of one work was the Fountain of Youth, and we all know what happened there. If a horse shows a history of needing 3 weeks to recover from a race, I'm not so sure betting him back 2 weeks later in the Preakness after a demanding race like the Derby would be such a good idea.

PowerUpPaynter
04-12-2017, 09:15 AM
Somebody on the thorograph forums brought up a concerning issue with Irish War Cry a couple of days ago;

Raced on Nov 11th and didn't work again til Dec 2nd
Raced on Dec 31st and didn't work again til Jan 22nd
Raced on Feb 4th and didn't work again til Feb 25th
raced on Mar 4th and didn't work again til Mar 25th

He's a horse that his trainer feels needs to have 3 weeks after every race before he's comfortable putting him out for a work again. If this pattern continues up to the Derby then Irish War Cry will only be getting in one work before the Derby. The only time he entered a race off of one work was the Fountain of Youth, and we all know what happened there. If a horse shows a history of needing 3 weeks to recover from a race, I'm not so sure betting him back 2 weeks later in the Preakness after a demanding race like the Derby would be such a good idea.


Nice catch. :ThmbUp:

PowerUpPaynter
04-25-2017, 08:58 PM
we havent talked much about this horse in the past 2 weeks so i figured id resurrect the thread.

No one seems to think he can win. Im not gonna say he will but I surely wont say he can't. I just think he would wear down Always Dreaming like Battalion Runner given the chance. - SHOTS FIRED!!!


p.s. im a homer for this horse from jersey

boys at tosconova
04-26-2017, 02:05 AM
we havent talked much about this horse in the past 2 weeks so i figured id resurrect the thread.

No one seems to think he can win. Im not gonna say he will but I surely wont say he can't. I just think he would wear down Always Dreaming like Battalion Runner given the chance. - SHOTS FIRED!!!


p.s. im a homer for this horse from jersey

yes you have a chance to hit your 26-1 future bet. and yes you can feel good about it...at least b4 the race.

as i cut and paste my ramblings

he won by 3.5L and was widening in the process. he won big in the context of the race and bounced back nicely.

ran a beast of race he ran in the holy bull. race is fact enough that this is a really good horse and questioning fractions and if he's fast enough is really unwarranted.

i really think IWC and AD are at the top of the list. after these 2, well, it's gets a little difficult imo

i would really be surprised in the above two horses, and to a lil lesser extent classic empire. that 1 of those three horses should finish at least 2nd in a worse case scenario. how can you think otherwise?. those 3 horse are fast and will be a good spot in the race.

sadly, i hate saying it, but i would not be surprised if they made up the entire number.

MNslappy
04-26-2017, 12:16 PM
Yeah everyone's saying this is the year we get a bomber winning it and it's wide open etc etc. Looks like it's setting up to be awfully chalky to me.

f2tornado
04-26-2017, 01:32 PM
I think it's gonna be chalky on top but there's room for a price to hit the board somewhere. I couldn't help but compare IWC's big fig in the Wood that that of Frosted two years earlier. Both ran the race quite similarly sitting not far behind the leaders then pouncing. Frosted closed the final 3/8th in about 36.5 while IWC closed in 39.2, granted with a hotter early pace. Frosted certainly closed well in the Derby finishing 4th and perhaps could have had hit the show pool if he avoided more traffic. IWC will somehow need to avoid being passed with that pedestrian closing speed. There's too much speed this year for him to pull a War Emblem. I just can't see it and therefore taking my stand tossing this one from the win pool. I will play him somewhere in the trifecta but my gut tells me this one has a better chance to miss the board than hitting it.

PowerUpPaynter
04-27-2017, 07:10 PM
http://thisishorseracing.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4617&catid=75&Itemid=312



As fugazi favorite Always Dreaming looks like donkey dump. Irish War Cry remains cool calm and collected.

burnsy
04-28-2017, 09:34 AM
http://thisishorseracing.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4617&catid=75&Itemid=312



As fugazi favorite Always Dreaming looks like donkey dump. Irish War Cry remains cool calm and collected.

I wouldn't just look at workouts, look at the races, it counts for way more. Irish War Cry "bailed" out of Fla. after he got pissed on. Always Dreaming waltzed on basically the same field that Irish War Cry couldn't even keep up with.

He might of wanted more out of the work they tried to give him. He looked like he wanted to go and after they went around once he levels off jogging out. You can't tell me that Always Dreaming can't rate, the Florida Derby was a walk over once that horse got going and he probably beat better horses than were in NY. He can cruise at a high rate of speed, saw it with my own eyes. Plus, the way money was being bet, someone knew this horse improved immensely turning 3. The horse looks like a gorilla now.

The way they train these horses its nothing to go from winning one or two and going to a grade 1, we saw this last year, the best horse had the fewest races (Arrogate). I would worry about the surface change more than anything else because that's the thing that could slow him down. But I don't know how you just dismiss Always Dreaming as a "fraud" after seeing these prep races and comparing the fields. He got good, in a hurry and at this age that equals dynamite. I saw the April 26 work, he wanted to run a little more and he was goofing off but he looks pretty f'ing built to be fast. Watch the Fla. Derby replay, you won't see many of these rate like that on the flank. He's gotta repeat but showed what he has, leaving him all the way out may be a big mistake IMO.

PowerUpPaynter
04-28-2017, 09:57 AM
I wouldn't just look at workouts, look at the races, it counts for way more. Irish War Cry "bailed" out of Fla. after he got pissed on. Always Dreaming waltzed on basically the same field that Irish War Cry couldn't even keep up with.

He might of wanted more out of the work they tried to give him. He looked like he wanted to go and after they went around once he levels off jogging out. You can't tell me that Always Dreaming can't rate, the Florida Derby was a walk over once that horse got going and he probably beat better horses than were in NY. He can cruise at a high rate of speed, saw it with my own eyes. Plus, the way money was being bet, someone knew this horse improved immensely turning 3. The horse looks like a gorilla now.

The way they train these horses its nothing to go from winning one or two and going to a grade 1, we saw this last year, the best horse had the fewest races (Arrogate). I would worry about the surface change more than anything else because that's the thing that could slow him down. But I don't know how you just dismiss Always Dreaming as a "fraud" after seeing these prep races and comparing the fields. He got good, in a hurry and at this age that equals dynamite. I saw the April 26 work, he wanted to run a little more and he was goofing off but he looks pretty f'ing built to be fast. Watch the Fla. Derby replay, you won't see many of these rate like that on the flank. He's gotta repeat but showed what he has, leaving him all the way out may be a big mistake IMO.

I just wanna toss him from the win spot. I heard the work was outstanding today. I could still reconsider but i really dont want to. Id hate to reconsider because a strong work and then my thoughts about him come true. But im humble enough to know if EVERYONE seems to love him maybe I should be using him at least in an insurance type ticket.

I will say if he does win the derby he is the type of horse that should have zero issues with the Preakness and id probably do a 180 on him and love him for that race at least. But there would be, like many Preakness', no way to make money on him.

The Biscuit
05-02-2017, 04:37 PM
Irish War Cry Irish War Cry will try and become just the third New Jersey-bred to win the Derby. It has been 83 years since Cavalcade won in 1934 and 102 years since the filly Regret took home the Roses in 1915. Dance Floor was the most recent runner from the Garden State and he ran third in 1992 behind Lil E. Tee.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-02-2017, 06:11 PM
Liked Irish War Cry from day 1 in the release of the first Derby pool. Just wish I would have put together an Ex ticket with IWC and Gunnevera and had that done and out of my head. :(

Now? I liked his Holy Bull, but he was truly gifted a perfect trip, but in the end he was good enough to keep 'em all at bay without any real challenges. His FOY was a complete bomb, they then shipped to NY, and he beat who knows what?

He checks a lot of boxes including massive pedigree angles. I just have a real hard time seeing him getting 10 panels Saturday with a field that has 9 horses with E6 to E/P 6 or greater ratings that will go to the gate. I don't see anybody getting a loose lead, much less do I see dawdling fractions. It may not be a wicked hot pace, but it will be contended.

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 06:50 PM
very possible he flipped his pallet in FOY, which would be a more than acceptable excuse

PowerUpPaynter
05-02-2017, 07:06 PM
https://twitter.com/njbreds/status/859527847463014403

1st time lasix
05-02-2017, 08:31 PM
Toss. Slow prep. 20 horses. No chance to win imo

Mc990
05-02-2017, 08:50 PM
Toss. Slow prep. 20 horses. No chance to win imo

Interesting. Either a slow prep or the fastest. One or the other.

magwell
05-02-2017, 09:04 PM
very possible he flipped his pallet in FOY, which would be a more than acceptable excuseDont know if he did, but I'm tossing that race, he's in the game for now......:)

letswastemoney
05-02-2017, 09:09 PM
No front runner did anything late in the Fountain of Youth because of the pace. The pace was so fast, even Takaful couldn't make the lead.

But the pace in the Kentucky Derby will be moderate to fast (I think) too, so we'll see...

Spalding No!
05-02-2017, 09:22 PM
No front runner did anything late in the Fountain of Youth because of the pace. The pace was so fast, even Takaful couldn't make the lead.
Practical Joke was all out to secure the runner-up spot from pacesetter Three Rules.

Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming will be in uncharted territory if there is a multi-horse scramble for the lead. Neither has shown the ability to come "off the bridle" in the early stages of a race.

f2tornado
05-02-2017, 09:37 PM
Interesting. Either a slow prep or the fastest. One or the other.

The raw time was slow. The final 3/8th was pedestrian. It's not often a horse coming home as slow as IWC did in the Wood wins the roses. If not for RAN sire line and a dash of Buckpasser I'd already toss this one from the trifecta. The remainder of his breeding doesn't inspire me. I can grab State of Honor with almost the same Timeform figure for a hell of a bigger bang for the buck on the bottom of a tri. IWC is Junior Frosted. I can get one of those at Wendy's.

boys at tosconova
05-02-2017, 09:51 PM
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/ef/92/f4/ef92f4e4cb86f51bb5b45e892ad9d965.jpg

f2tornado
05-02-2017, 10:25 PM
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/ef/92/f4/ef92f4e4cb86f51bb5b45e892ad9d965.jpg

His 3rd in the Wood about 5 lengths back was still faster than IWC in spite of a mouth abscess. The final 3/8th in the 1973 Wood was run in 37 3/5 versus 39 for IWC. Aqueduct must have been running real slow to justify IWC's slow raw figures. How'd that work for Materiality a couple years back?

boys at tosconova
05-02-2017, 10:56 PM
His 3rd in the Wood about 5 lengths back was still faster than IWC in spite of a mouth abscess. The final 3/8th in the 1973 Wood was run in 37 3/5 versus 39 for IWC. Aqueduct must have been running real slow to justify IWC's slow raw figures. How'd that work for Materiality a couple years back?

war cry is one of the fastest horses in the race. i don't care what he came home in the wood. means nothing in the scope of the race or this horse's ability.

what you should be looking at was his widening lead and raja's over the shoulder look back.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-02-2017, 11:19 PM
The raw time was slow. The final 3/8th was pedestrian. It's not often a horse coming home as slow as IWC did in the Wood wins the roses. If not for RAN sire line and a dash of Buckpasser I'd already toss this one from the trifecta. The remainder of his breeding doesn't inspire me. I can grab State of Honor with almost the same Timeform figure for a hell of a bigger bang for the buck on the bottom of a tri. IWC is Junior Frosted. I can get one of those at Wendy's.

You eat at Wendy's? :(

f2tornado
05-02-2017, 11:29 PM
what you should be looking at was his widening lead and raja's over the shoulder look back.

Yes, he had a widening lead and doing it in slow time while fully urged against some iffy competition. He's got some great pace figures on the backstretch then fizzles out. He's got some decent pacers to contend with; Hence, Gormley, Midway, Irap and even Fast and Accurate. Classic Empire and Practical Joke have also displayed solid E2 pace figures in the past. If an 80 LP figure wins the race then so be it. I lose.

boys at tosconova
05-03-2017, 12:47 AM
Yes, he had a widening lead and doing it in slow time while fully urged against some iffy competition. He's got some great pace figures on the backstretch then fizzles out. He's got some decent pacers to contend with; Hence, Gormley, Midway, Irap and even Fast and Accurate. Classic Empire and Practical Joke have also displayed solid E2 pace figures in the past. If an 80 LP figure wins the race then so be it. I lose.


i'm definitely not worried that he's fast enough. it's wrong to penalize him for not being faster in a race in which he didn't need to go that fast while still winning by almost 4L.

it's wrong because the holy bull should tell you that him being fast enough is not an issue. only a few in here that can win by open lengths and go 142 @ 1/16th, and he's one of them.

i'm sure you weren't upset he ran a 105 LP that race....you really have to use those figures with a grain of salt. not build case while examining only a portion of the scope

arw629
05-03-2017, 11:32 PM
i'm definitely not worried that he's fast enough. it's wrong to penalize him for not being faster in a race in which he didn't need to go that fast while still winning by almost 4L.

it's wrong because the holy bull should tell you that him being fast enough is not an issue. only a few in here that can win by open lengths and go 142 @ 1/16th, and he's one of them.

i'm sure you weren't upset he ran a 105 LP that race....you really have to use those figures with a grain of salt. not build case while examining only a portion of the scope

This horse has no chance to get 10 furlongs unless he makes an easy lead like he did in the Holy Bull and I don't see how that is possible here...yea he's going to get a great trip but what have you seen that makes you think he will get the distance?

boys at tosconova
05-04-2017, 03:28 AM
This horse has no chance to get 10 furlongs unless he makes an easy lead like he did in the Holy Bull and I don't see how that is possible here...yea he's going to get a great trip but what have you seen that makes you think he will get the distance?

i wouldn't count him out going ten. it seems like he would have won by 8L if they went 1 1/4 in the wood. and he doesn't even need the lead.

but hey,...if you don't like him you still have the wood curse in effect. but this horse is hard for me to toss even with that

PowerUpPaynter
05-04-2017, 07:47 AM
This horse has no chance to get 10 furlongs unless he makes an easy lead like he did in the Holy Bull and I don't see how that is possible here...yea he's going to get a great trip but what have you seen that makes you think he will get the distance?

umm.... have you seen his pedigree for starters? :eek: might be one of the best bred horses in the field if not the best...

Fager Fan
05-04-2017, 09:21 AM
umm.... have you seen his pedigree for starters? :eek: might be one of the best bred horses in the field if not the best...

I understand that pedigree can be tossed out the window once a horse proves his distance capabilities on the track, but I too wonder what the poster thinks he's seen to prove this horse can't get the 1 1/4 miles. I like him better than most others to get the distance.

boys at tosconova
05-04-2017, 10:54 AM
i guess if you want to knock iwc you could say he "didn't beat anybody" in the wood. that seems to be a last cry as means of not wanting play him because almost everything else is exhausted though.

thing about that is you really didn't know how he was going to run in the wood. let alone win it. but he really only faced bat run and cloud comp.

the holy bull win is hard to dismiss though. if anybody can do that and believe it wasn't indicative of the horse's ability, i can see you tossing him. if anyone can sell me on this i would love to hear

f2tornado
05-04-2017, 12:00 PM
I will say it again. Only one Derby winner since 2000 posted a last out Brisnet LP figure below 95 and it was goofball Mine That Bird (79). Only five horses made up bottom of exacta posting lower than a 95 LP last out. Those were Firing Line (81), Commanding Curve (91), Blue Grass Cat (81), Closing Argument (79), Invisible Ink (93).

Irish War Cry posted an 80 LP. His recent EP numbers suggest he might be better than Firing Line but some of that speed will be compromised by the outside post. He came home slow in the Wood and now must add another panel. I don't see it. If not for his sire line, Buckpasser-x, and the best BSF I'd be tossing this one completely from gimmicks. Right now I see him as a Dortmund clone for Derby purposes but I suspect this guy will have a nice career crushing foes at 8.5F.

boys at tosconova
05-04-2017, 01:09 PM
I will say it again. Only one Derby winner since 2000 posted a last out Brisnet LP figure below 95 and it was goofball Mine That Bird (79). Only five horses made up bottom of exacta posting lower than a 95 LP last out. Those were Firing Line (81), Commanding Curve (91), Blue Grass Cat (81), Closing Argument (79), Invisible Ink (93).

Irish War Cry posted an 80 LP. His recent EP numbers suggest he might be better than Firing Line but some of that speed will be compromised by the outside post. He came home slow in the Wood and now must add another panel. I don't see it. If not for his sire line, Buckpasser-x, and the best BSF I'd be tossing this one completely from gimmicks. Right now I see him as a Dortmund clone for Derby purposes but I suspect this guy will have a nice career crushing foes at 8.5F.

sorry, i can't base my handicapping on 1 last race before the derby based on a mythical figure on their last quarter ran.

do i even have to go into detail on how ridiculous this is.

f2tornado
05-04-2017, 01:54 PM
sorry, i can't base my handicapping on 1 last race before the derby based on a mythical figure on their last quarter ran.

do i even have to go into detail on how ridiculous this is.

I'm game. I do appreciate your skepticism as there are a great many Derby angles that exist but have no explanation. This is not one of them. The last 17 years has shown a strong Derby contender needs to come home strong in final prep. Why? 1, it shows the horse is in form, and 2, it shows the horse can potentially maintain speed through an extra panel. A large majority of Derby races are won by horses closing a final 3/8th in under 38 seconds, regardless of track variant, condition, or where the horse finished.

HalvOnHorseracing
05-04-2017, 03:34 PM
Had Irish War Cry won the Florida Derby he'd have been a prohibitive favorite in this race. He didn't, and Motion was not very informative in terms of an explanation. My opinion.

He popped a very nice race in the Holy Bull, but then came back in the Fountain of Youth and ran inexplicably bad. Trainer Graham Motion's was perplexed after the FOY and could only speculate that he bounced off the heavy new top in the Holy Bull or never quite took to the track. People described the GP track as deep and cuppy that day, but Motion has described the CD track as being very similar to Fair Hill where Irish War Cry trains. Motion gave him a month off, and then switched riders to Rajiv Maragh. That seemed to do the trick because he ran well in the Wood. Maragh barely moved a muscle down the backstretch, and drove him vigorously down the stretch, but he looked like he finished with something left in the tank. That showed me he can relax and not be too headstrong. He was on the track on Tuesday and Motion described him as being "on the muscle," but he came back on Wednesday far more relaxed, so I have no issue with him being likely to expend a lot of nervous energy before the race. His breeding is impeccable, he should be able to put himself wherever he needs to be from the 17 post, and if he runs his best, he has excellent prospects.

Bennie
05-04-2017, 05:44 PM
one of my biggest scores in the Derby was with Bluegrass Cat running second and cashing on a very nice exacta. As I stated elsewhere, all these knocks that people use are mostly for horses never "winning" the Derby, I never completely toss a horse from the exotics if I believe they have a very good chance of hitting the board. I feel War Cry is bred to get the distance but not one with fast closing fractions. He is one like Bluegrass Cat that can be a "survivor" when other get tired and start to fade. That is what Bluegrass Cat did. Kind of like the tortoise and the hare.:)

Rex Phinney
05-04-2017, 06:48 PM
I have to be honest, I like this one a lot.

The Wood curse has to end sometime, and I'm ready to take a shot that this one can do it.

dballard125
05-04-2017, 07:44 PM
sorry, i can't base my handicapping on 1 last race before the derby based on a mythical figure on their last quarter ran.

do i even have to go into detail on how ridiculous this is.

Please do. Because based on my experience here, you're notorious for doing these drive-by accusations that claim someone or something is ridiculous, without actually returning to back up your claims with any sort of factual evidence.

boys at tosconova
05-04-2017, 08:06 PM
Please do. Because based on my experience here, you're notorious for doing these drive-by accusations that claim someone or something is ridiculous, without actually returning to back up your claims with any sort of factual evidence.

after insulting me and calling me gay, i wouldn't even give you the short version of this.

in fact,..i'll just lol @ you and all your zero quality antagonistic posts, and i'll remind you of this every time you engage me.

depalma113
05-04-2017, 08:15 PM
Only five horses made up bottom of exacta posting lower than a 95 LP last out. Those were Firing Line (81), Commanding Curve (91), Blue Grass Cat (81), Closing Argument (79), Invisible Ink (93).


Two Todd Pletcher horses that ran out of the money in the Blue Grass.

Hmmmm...

Thomas Roulston
05-05-2017, 03:09 PM
umm.... have you seen his pedigree for starters? :eek: might be one of the best bred horses in the field if not the best...


Dosage Profile: 5-7-12-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.00

Certainly not one of the best bred horses for anything much beyond a mile.

And that complete towel toss in the Fountain Of Youth leaves a bad taste that cannot be washed out with his Wood win when Wood starters are 0-for-30 ITM in the Derby since 2003.

PowerUpPaynter
05-05-2017, 03:21 PM
Dosage Profile: 5-7-12-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.00

Certainly not one of the best bred horses for anything much beyond a mile.

And that complete towel toss in the Fountain Of Youth leaves a bad taste that cannot be washed out with his Wood win when Wood starters are 0-for-30 ITM in the Derby since 2003.

Curlin did well with a Exaggerator ( RAN sire line) and Buckpasser in the X... What was Nyquist's Dosage #'s?

Skanoochies
05-05-2017, 03:44 PM
IWC also the last New Jersey horse to win the Derby was in 1933, as pointed out by Biscuit several days back.:confused:

HalvOnHorseracing
05-05-2017, 04:20 PM
Dosage Profile: 5-7-12-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.00

Certainly not one of the best bred horses for anything much beyond a mile.

And that complete towel toss in the Fountain Of Youth leaves a bad taste that cannot be washed out with his Wood win when Wood starters are 0-for-30 ITM in the Derby since 2003.

IWC's Dosage number is well within the cutoff of 4.00 set by Rasmussen and Roman for runners in the Derby. He's by Curlin, a winner at a mile and a quarter multiple times, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup twice, the BC Classic and the Dubai Classic. Curlin produced a runner who won or finished among the top three in the Triple Crown series in each of his first four crops. He's had plenty of stakes winners at route winners. His dam, Sovereign Strike, was known as a sprinter, but has some royal European breeding in her background. IWC has dominant Classicity in his dosage profile, a good thing for a mile and a quarter. IWC has shown his ability to get the route distance, and if he loses the race, it's far more likely he chose to get involved in a killing early pace than he hit the breeding wall. If anything, his breeding indicates a good combination of speed and stamina which is an advantage in the Derby.

Until 2015 year, Storm Cat progeny were 0 for 44 and then he had a Triple Crown winner. Every streak is a great reason to bet/not bet a horse right up until the streak ends. The curse of the Wood didn't stop me from betting Frosted (a horse that turned out to be pretty useful) in the Derby, and it certainly won't keep me off IWC.

letswastemoney
05-05-2017, 04:21 PM
Curlin isn't the problem with Irish War Cry's pedigree.

The bottom side of Irish War Cry seemed a little sprinty the first time I looked. Plus, his sibling Irish Strait seems to be fed a steady diet of 1 1/16 mile turf races or shorter, even though there must be numerous opportunities to go longer.

HalvOnHorseracing
05-05-2017, 04:23 PM
Curlin did well with a Exaggerator ( RAN sire line) and Buckpasser in the X... What was Nyquist's Dosage #'s?

Nyquist was DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00

Thomas Roulston
05-05-2017, 04:32 PM
Curlin did well with a Exaggerator ( RAN sire line) and Buckpasser in the X... What was Nyquist's Dosage #'s?


But did either Curlin or Nyquist totally spit it out two starts before the Derby the way Irish War Cry did?

HalvOnHorseracing
05-05-2017, 04:51 PM
But did either Curlin or Nyquist totally spit it out two starts before the Derby the way Irish War Cry did?

That is as big a negative as you want to make it. While I didn't press Motion for what he thought the real story was on the FOY - Motion maintained he couldn't find any organic reason for the horse's failure - I can excuse the race given the comeback in the Wood and his previously shown ability.

The difficulty in this race is that I can list a negative for most of the starters, and perhaps they may not be seen as bad as IWC's FOY, but no horse really looks flawless coming into the race.

Rex Phinney
05-06-2017, 03:15 AM
I cannot at this stage discount any part of the horses pedigree when Curlin is the sire. His results speak for themselves, it's only a matter of time until a Curlin baby lands in the winners circle on derby day. If you are disputing this you are a dumbass.

He is my pick to win. Because the Wood is due, and because Graham Motion doesn't bring junk to the races.

PowerUpPaynter
05-06-2017, 07:55 AM
Graham Motion doesn't bring junk to the races.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Thomas Roulston
05-06-2017, 11:04 AM
I cannot at this stage discount any part of the horses pedigree when Curlin is the sire. His results speak for themselves, it's only a matter of time until a Curlin baby lands in the winners circle on derby day. If you are disputing this you are a dumbass.

He is my pick to win. Because the Wood is due, and because Graham Motion doesn't bring junk to the races.


Unraced 2-year-olds are "due" too! ;)