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Cratos
04-09-2017, 09:23 PM
Except for Always Dreaming’s 1:47.47 victory in the 1-1/8M FL Derby the other major Derby preps might be written off as “clunkers.”

However, it was not too far in the past that Secretariat, one of the best ever, threw a 1:49 4/5 clunker in the Wood, his Derby prep and subsequently broke 3 track records in his next 3 starts in route to the Triple Crown.

I am not saying that there is a “Secretariat” among this year’s Derby hopefuls, but I am saying that final times are virtually meaningless as a single point estimate.

I have not run my model for the Derby, but I will and I think it will produce a Derby final time faster than the historical average final Derby time.

f2tornado
04-09-2017, 10:03 PM
Fair point however Secretariat supposedly had a mouth abscess that day and Turcotte was not aware of it. He mentioned how the horse didn't seem right out of the gate. Typically, but certainly not always, a Derby winner will run the final 3/8th of the final 9F prep in less than 38 seconds. Most of the handful of winners that didn't in recent decades were Raise A Native sire line.

ronsmac
04-09-2017, 11:35 PM
Fair point however Secretariat supposedly had a mouth abscess that day and Turcotte was not aware of it. He mentioned how the horse didn't seem right out of the gate. Typically, but certainly not always, a Derby winner will run the final 3/8th of the final 9F prep in less than 38 seconds. Most of the handful of winners that didn't in recent decades were Raise A Native sire line.Horses recovered a lot faster back in those days. A mouth abscess in the Wood, run the faster Derby ever just two weeks later.

Cratos
04-10-2017, 12:21 AM
Fair point however Secretariat supposedly had a mouth abscess that day and Turcotte was not aware of it. He mentioned how the horse didn't seem right out of the gate. Typically, but certainly not always, a Derby winner will run the final 3/8th of the final 9F prep in less than 38 seconds. Most of the handful of winners that didn't in recent decades were Raise A Native sire line.

I am not questioning your last 3/8M assumption, but that distance begins with the horses about 43% into the far turn at Churchill Downs which would lead me to believe that the last 1/8M or at least the last 1/4M should be the distance of concern in the Derby.

Last year Nyquist stopped the timer in the Derby at a fast 1:47.23, but “crawled” the last 1/8M in a paltry 14:08 seconds for the last 664 feet.

He had a 1.01 second advantage over Exaggerator at the eighth pole and finished with a .22 second margin.

However, Nyquist final time for the 2016 Derby will show in history as a respectable 2:01.31 for the 1-1/4M Derby distance.

CincyHorseplayer
04-10-2017, 03:06 AM
Except for Always Dreaming’s 1:47.47 victory in the 1-1/8M FL Derby the other major Derby preps might be written off as “clunkers.”

However, it was not too far in the past that Secretariat, one of the best ever, threw a 1:49 4/5 clunker in the Wood, his Derby prep and subsequently broke 3 track records in his next 3 starts in route to the Triple Crown.

I am not saying that there is a “Secretariat” among this year’s Derby hopefuls, but I am saying that final times are virtually meaningless as a single point estimate.

I have not run my model for the Derby, but I will and I think it will produce a Derby final time faster than the historical average final Derby time.

He ran big in the Gotham though. 1 clunker is fine. 2 in a row is not. Even if the 2nd clunker is a slow win.