Final Fraction Derby Handicapping

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good day,

So last week the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby were run on lighting fast tracks with lighting quick closing fractions and Always Dreaming receiving a 97 beyer and Girvin getting a 91 beyer. Yesterday Irish War Cry was on a dead slow track ran a slow time and got a 101 beyer. The Bluegrass was just a mess of a race with no pace whatsoever and Santa Anita was just a joke of a race with a bunch of clowns in it.

How the heck do you use closing fractions this year as a capping angle with such inconsistency in the tracks the preps were run on?

Would love Sbcaris to weigh in on this.

Cheers

[f2tornado]

I use them like I always do; as is. Stanley only focused on the FL Derby, Ark Derby, SA Derby, Blue Grass and Wood in his 2013 book, perhaps since the impact value for Louisiana Derby in the win pool is zero while the Sunland and Spiral have been one offs.

Final 3/8th in 37.8 or less this year are few and far between. I rushed these calculations. If correct, then these are the only ones from the 9F preps.

Always Dreaming (~36.6) RAN. The logical chalk
State of Honor (~36.8) but lost 2-3 lengths to leader which is a toss from the win.
Gunnevera (~36.4) This year's Thunder Gulch? Buckpasser-x. Has a nice dosage line.
Girvin (~37.6) Another Revolutionary?
Patch (~37.6) This is your Commanding Curve bomber play. Buckpasser-x.
Hence (~37.4) RAN, Buckpasser-x. This one suddenly looks like a top contender.

Irap and Practical Joke were close at near 38 flat for each.

It's worth noting the FL Derby winner has made up the Derby exacta in 7 of 13 starts and outright won 5 of them since 2001 regardless of fractions. Massive impact value. RAN with fast fractions have massive impact value. Buckpasser-x with fast fractions have massive impact value. It would seemingly be foolish to leave Always Dreaming and Gunnevera off your tickets. And add Hence for a price. Put Louisiana stuff underneath and got a decent trifecta.

[PowerUpPaynter]

to play devil advocate... depending what happens next week its possible Irish War Cry will have the only 100 plus beyer in his final prep and, only horse with two 100 plus beyer performances, have RAN sire line and Buckpasser in the X but you will toss him out of the win spot because the track played dead slow and his final fractions werent the greatest? 39 and 13 1/5...

[f2tornado]

He's no auto-toss but I will use less than others. It helps I already have him covered to some extent in the Future wagering. Playing DA the other way... Do you want to plunk down money on a slow Wood winner that folded like a cheap tent in previous when a horse from the Wood has not won the roses since 2003? I sometimes don't understand Beyer. How in the hell is the 5th fastest FL Derby in history given a 97 while a pokey Wood gets a 101 (and Materiality got a 108 in the FL Derby two years ago running almost 5 seconds slower)?

[PowerUpPaynter]

very good point, i should probably think like you. i got 25 on IWC at 26-1 from pool 1

[CincyHorseplayer]

to play devil advocate... depending what happens next week its possible Irish War Cry will have the only 100 plus beyer in his final prep and, only horse with two 100 plus beyer performances, have RAN sire line and Buckpasser in the X but you will toss him out of the win spot because the track played dead slow and his final fractions werent the greatest? 39 and 13 1/5...

You can do anything in a single race. And the Derby is a single race. It isn't the world or the year as far as winnings go. The obsessiveness over this 1 race even though I am giant fan and follow it all from Saratoga til now, always amazes me. You are sooo geared up for this race. Oh my god it's the KD Derby aaaaaaarrrrrhhhh!!! LOL!

[CincyHorseplayer]

He's no auto-toss but I will use less than others. It helps I already have him covered to some extent in the Future wagering. Playing DA the other way... Do you want to plunk down money on a slow Wood winner that folded like a cheap tent in previous when a horse from the Wood has not won the roses since 2003? I sometimes don't understand Beyer. How in the hell is the 5th fastest FL Derby in history given a 97 while a pokey Wood gets a 101 (and Materiality got a 108 in the FL Derby two years ago running almost 5 seconds slower)?

This is the fun part. And thank god for our figure makers. Without them we'd be still lost in the wilderness. We have the luxury to scrutinize their figures. We are in orbit of them. They use their best judgement. We from our own experiences use ours. Irish War Cry I trust because he had done so much up to the FOY he did hit a wall. It happens. At least he has had a bounce and a bounce back. Some of these have 1 big race and pure mystery in front of them. I am liking a grizzled stakes veteran like Gunnevera. Ran a semi dud but closed in fast time. I just trust it. You know what you trust. Roll with it brother. It's 1 muthatruckin race a year anyway.......

...Sure is fun as hell to hit it big though ain't it?! LOL!

[lamboguy]

while using time has some type of bearing on handicapping winners, i would say that rating the toughness of a horse is more important in any race. the one thing you don't want to do is bet on a horse in any race that becomes a chicken when he goes near the gate. those type will run like turtles every day of the week no matter how fast they train in the morning.

[PowerUpPaynter]

You can do anything in a single race. And the Derby is a single race. It isn't the world or the year as far as winnings go. The obsessiveness over this 1 race even though I am giant fan and follow it all from Saratoga til now, always amazes me. You are sooo geared up for this race. Oh my god it's the KD Derby aaaaaaarrrrrhhhh!!! LOL!

Sure money can be won year round but its a great sporting spectacle, a great day as a whole, and some nice payouts. Don't try to poo poo on the Kentucky Derby man. You can make money betting regular season football too but betting or not the super bowl means more.

[PowerUpPaynter]

while using time has some type of bearing on handicapping winners, i would say that rating the toughness of a horse is more important in any race. the one thing you don't want to do is bet on a horse in any race that becomes a chicken when he goes near the gate. those type will run like turtles every day of the week no matter how fast they train in the morning.

are you referring to classic empire?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Sure money can be won year round but its a great sporting spectacle, a great day as a whole, and some nice payouts. Don't try to poo poo on the Kentucky Derby man. You can make money betting regular season football too but betting or not the super bowl means more.

Don't try to poo poo somebody else's line of thought on how to bet this race! I've noticed this particular phenomenon over the years. Players become so all encompassed over this 1 race that they start to dysfunction as the race draws near and go into a Kentucky Derby psychosis! I've hit 4 of the last 6 derbies, 2 crushed. I could care less about 14 and 16 though with the absolute mediocre ceiling of it all. The undercard turf races have been the real staple earners for me. Don't get me wrong Paynter. I start writing out pedigrees and tracking 2yo stakes races at Saratoga every August. I am into it as much as you and love the passion. Have come full circle on how I view the race itself though from a betting perspective. It's 1 race. All the hoopla is the fun part!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Don't try to poo poo somebody else's line of thought on how to bet this race! I've noticed this particular phenomenon over the years. Players become so all encompassed over this 1 race that they start to dysfunction as the race draws near and go into a Kentucky Derby psychosis! I've hit 4 of the last 6 derbies, 2 crushed. I could care less about 14 and 16 though with the absolute mediocre ceiling of it all. The undercard turf races have been the real staple earners for me. Don't get me wrong Paynter. I start writing out pedigrees and tracking 2yo stakes races at Saratoga every August. I am into it as much as you and love the passion. Have come full circle on how I view the race itself though from a betting perspective. It's 1 race. All the hoopla is the fun part!

yes thats kind of what i meant the hoopla is the fun part. its a great sports event.

[Parson]

I put this together earlier this morning and it is the top 23 in points going into the Ark. Derby this weekend so there may be a couple that need to be added to the list. It is the first time doing this and I used trakus for times so I feel pretty confident that those are accurate. As for the horses coming from LA, NM, and later AR, I calculated on my own. I would like a few opinions .....

[PowerUpPaynter]

I put this together earlier this morning and it is the top 23 in points going into the Ark. Derby this weekend so there may be a couple that need to be added to the list. It is the first time doing this and I used trakus for times so I feel pretty confident that those are accurate. As for the horses coming from LA, NM, and later AR, I calculated on my own. I would like a few opinions .....


good stuff, i assume the numbers to the left are what the horses ran and to the right what the actual race fractions were?

[Parson]

yes, the columns to the right are the times for the race and the ones to the left are for the named horse.

[f2tornado]

Nice spread sheet. Interesting the Trakus times don't line up with the estimates for the Louisiana Derby I pulled from Equibase. According to the Equibase chart, Girvin and Patch were 5 and 6 lengths back respectively at the 6F call which gives both a 37.6 time using old school tools. All the others are about where I calculated.

[Parson]

I used the times for any non-Trakus races that Brisnet had published. I may have erred in the calculations
:bang:

[Parson]

If you were able to get trakus times send them to me and I will update the spreadsheet.

[yankeelpn]

I put this together earlier this morning and it is the top 23 in points going into the Ark. Derby this weekend so there may be a couple that need to be added to the list. It is the first time doing this and I used trakus for times so I feel pretty confident that those are accurate. As for the horses coming from LA, NM, and later AR, I calculated on my own. I would like a few opinions .....

Thank you!

[dballard125]

I put this together earlier this morning and it is the top 23 in points going into the Ark. Derby this weekend so there may be a couple that need to be added to the list. It is the first time doing this and I used trakus for times so I feel pretty confident that those are accurate. As for the horses coming from LA, NM, and later AR, I calculated on my own. I would like a few opinions .....

f2tornado has Patch's final 3/8 at 37.6. Your spreadsheet has it at 38.87.

Curious is there's a mistake somewhere?

[dballard125]

I used the times for any non-Trakus races that Brisnet had published. I may have erred in the calculations
:bang:

Sorry, saw this after I posted.

[PowerUpPaynter]

f2tornado has Patch's final 3/8 at 37.6. Your spreadsheet has it at 38.87.

Curious is there's a mistake somewhere?

i got him at 37 4/5, Patch just looks like a horse that finishes in the super and boost the price.

[kevb]

Link for Trakus data of UAE Derby (go to race 4):
http://bit.ly/2n3iuiQ

I'm not sure I am doing this right, but for Thunder Snow:
Time to 1300 meters = 1:20.38 = 80.38 seconds
Time to 1900 meters = 1:57.768 = 117.768 seconds

Time for last 600 meters = 37.4 seconds

[Cratos]

Link for Trakus data of UAE Derby (go to race 4):
http://bit.ly/2n3iuiQ

I'm not sure I am doing this right, but for Thunder Snow:
Time to 1300 meters = 1:20.38 = 80.38 seconds
Time to 1900 meters = 1:57.768 = 117.768 seconds

Time for last 600 meters = 37.4 seconds

You are correct and to state it in English, it becomes the last 3 furlongs = 37.4 seconds since 600 meters are virtually 3 furlongs.

[Parson]

Does anyone have any Trakus data for the Arkansas Derby? I dont think they have Trakus data there, but if they do I can't find it. Any help thanks in advance.

[cj]

Does anyone have any Trakus data for the Arkansas Derby? I dont think they have Trakus data there, but if they do I can't find it. Any help thanks in advance.

No Trakus at Oaklawn.