HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 4/9

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields All 10 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.

Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the
Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #4
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) T……....1-2 W/ 8-3-6-10 ........1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #5– Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1400M (7F) T….......3-10 W/ 1-4-6-9 ……...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1800M (9F) T..........6-8 W/ 1-2-12-5........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T….......2-7 W/ 8-10-9-5………2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1000M (5F) T….…...2-1 W/ 3-4-10-7.........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1600M (8F) T…......3-5 W/ 7-10-14-6…….3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1200M (6F) T.........1-2 W/ 4-3-5.............4:05 AM EST


R#8 - 1600M (8F) T.……....2-1 W/ 5-7-6-3 …..…...4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 2200M (11F) T.….....1-2 W/ 3-7-6-4 ………...5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.........4-5 W/ 8-1-3-9 …….....5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-2 W/ 8-3-6-10 – All of that one! (w/#5 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)
Live Tote Results: 8-5-1-3 – Dutch 37% Profit Margin – PASS
3rd choice $3.60 Early & Top choice Live - & $27.80 QUIN / $142.20 TRI BX (w/#5 Tote watch 6th choice)

A very generous Quinella!

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 7.3 17.0 BET PRF
$4 $17 $36
$36 $8 $4 $47 $17 37%
$65 $65 $65

[AltonKelsey]

Fantastic!

[VigorsTheGrey]

ShaTin 2

:1::)]:liar:
:2::eek::eek::eek:]
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:4::rolleyes:]:jump::cool:
:5::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:]
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:7::eek:]:liar:
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:cool::p
:bang:
:liar:
:liar:
:liar:

:popcorn:
:1::7::10:
:liar::liar::liar:
Winner Trifecta Box (6 horse Trifecta box @ $1=120 bet) Return $313

[Nitro]

R#2 - 3-10 W/ 1-4-6-9 -
Live Tote Results: 1-7-10-8 – Live Dutch 97% Profit Margin - HIT
3rd choice $6.70 Early & 2nd choice Live

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 - Dutch HIT


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 5.8 14.0 BET PRF
$7 $14 $30
$30 $15 $7 $52 $50 97%
$102 $102 $102

[AltonKelsey]

big steem 8 got nothing:pound:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 6-8 W/ 1-2-12-5 -
Live Tote Results: 2-1-4-8 – Live Dutch 84% Profit Margin - HIT
4th choice $9.20 Early & 2nd choice Live & $52.00 QUIN (w/Great Value!)

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 - Dutch HIT


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.1 3.6 11.0 BET PRF
$8 $9 $24
$24 $21 $8 $54 $45 84%
$98 $98 $98

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-7 W/ 8-10-9-5 - All of that one! (w/#6 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)
Live Tote Results: 8-6-5-7 – Dutch 70% Profit Margin - HIT
3rd choice $4.40 Early & Top choice Live & $8.60 QUIN / $62.60 TRI BX (w/#6 Tote watch 4th choice)

Not much Value there – the betting action was all over the Top 3!

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 - Dutch HIT


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.2 9.0 29.0 BET PRF
$4 $20 $60
$60 $13 $4 $78 $54 70%
$132 $132 $132

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-1 W/ 3-4-10-7 -
Live Tote Results: 5-10-4-7 – Dutch 47% Profit Margin - PASS
OUT Early & Live -

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 - Dutch PASS


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 5.6 6.8 BET PRF
$5 $13 $16
$16 $6 $5 $27 $12 47%
$39 $39 $39

[Nitro]

R#6 -3-5 W/ 7-10-14-6
Live Tote Results: 9-14-1-10 – Dutch 109% Profit Margin - OUT
OUT Early & Live – (#14 became the Top choice Live)

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 - Dutch OUT


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.1 4.2 10.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $22
$22 $22 $10 $54 $58 109%
$112 $112 $112

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 4-3-5 - All of that one! (#1 DQ’d from 3rd & DH for 3rd)
Live Tote Results: 4-2-3/7-1 – Dutch 3% Profit Margin - PASS
3rd choice $6.80 Early & 2nd choice Live & $20.90 QUIN / $84.40 TRI BX

Very generous results for Quinella & Tri!

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 - Dutch PASS


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 2.4 7.0 BET PRF
$4 $7 $16
$16 $8 $4 $28 $1 3%
$29 $29 $29

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-1 W/ 5-7-6-3 -
Live Tote Results: 7-2-9-3 - Dutch 13% Profit Margin - PASS
4th choice $3.20 Early & Top choice Live & $8.70 Quin

Winner got solid action throughout!

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 - Dutch PASS


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 5.3 9.0 BET PRF
$3 $13 $20
$20 $5 $3 $28 $4 13%
$32 $32 $32

[lamboguy]

what an exciting race EAGLE WAY AND BEAUTY GENERATION just gave you, its the greatest show on earth now

[Nitro]

what an exciting race EAGLE WAY AND BEAUTY GENERATION just gave you, its the greatest show on earth now
You've got that right my friend! Nothing like the racing in HK!

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 W/ 3-7-6-4 -
Live Tote Results: 3-4-9-12 - Dutch 33% Profit Margin - PASS
3rd choice $5.00 Early & Top choice Live & $10.90 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 - Dutch PASS


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 2.4 16.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $34
$34 $25 $5 $64 $21 33%
$85 $85 $85

[Nitro]

R#10 - 4-5 W/ 8-1-3-9 -
Live Tote Results: 5-1-13-2 - Dutch 43% Profit Margin - PASS
2nd choice $10.90 Early & Live & $196.90 QUIN (W/Some Great Value!) :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 - Dutch PASS


LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.0 4.4 BET PRF
$8 $8 $11
$11 $10 $8 $29 $12 43%
$41 $41 $41

[PaceAdvantage]

ShaTin 2

:1::)]:liar:
:2::eek::eek::eek:]
:3::eek:]:liar:
:4::rolleyes:]:jump::cool:
:5::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:]
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:7::eek:]:liar:
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:14::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:++]
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:cool::p
:bang:
:liar:
:liar:
:liar:

:popcorn:
:1::7::10:
:liar::liar::liar:
Winner Trifecta Box (6 horse Trifecta box @ $1=120 bet) Return $313Don't start posting these outside your clipboard thread. Nobody has a clue what the hell it all means...your self-indulgence won't be indulged outside of your clipboard thread...if even that...